Why the 2021 Rookie Class might be the most valuable in Recent Dynasty History

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Hottoddies » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:00 pm

Krypto_King wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:36 pm I don't really understand OP. Without putting names to those claims you could say that about any class. That said, if 2 years from now this class has produced the ADP QB1, WR1, TE1 and a top 10 RB or 2, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
The key to Nostradamus' success was the obscurity of his predictions. But I don't think that that was the point of this thread. I believe that the OP wanted us to reconsider how we view this class; blindly assuming that the glass is half full.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby krtbuckeye » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:09 pm

I just got around to reading the original post and subsequent conversation. I appreciate the writeup on this and agree with the class as a whole. I have cooled on some of the top individuals, aside from Chase, Lawrence, and Fields, but overall it is a very deep and talented class. I enjoyed the read and the followups. Thanks ArryIT!
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:42 pm

Krypto_King wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:36 pm I don't really understand OP. Without putting names to those claims you could say that about any class. That said, if 2 years from now this class has produced the ADP QB1, WR1, TE1 and a top 10 RB or 2, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
I would certainly agree that different people could put positive spins on different classes because we all see things differently. So agreed, someone else could easily have made a similar claim about a previous class. I can only share my enthusiasm about this class.

I know I was more bullish on the '19 Class than many, and have been quite pleased, for the most part, with the players I focused on drafting. I know I felt that the 2020 class was not heads & shoulders above the other recent classes (17-18-19). Maybe that allowed me to not acquire many JJ shares, but hey it is not like any of us were going after him with top 4 picks regardless. :angel:

However I have not been this intrigued by a class and how it will play out, in a long time. I simply have not seen this combination of depth, upside & safe* assets in all 4 skill positions. If other owners have in other classes I can totally respect that.

I'll address why I have not focused on individuals later on. But for now I felt it was best to come at it from a broader perspective, rather than talking about indivuduals. Either way I certainly appreciate you and everyone who has taken time to share their thoughts. :)

Such as
krtbuckeye wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:09 pm I just got around to reading the original post and subsequent conversation. I appreciate the writeup on this and agree with the class as a whole. I have cooled on some of the top individuals, aside from Chase, Lawrence, and Fields, but overall it is a very deep and talented class. I enjoyed the read and the followups. Thanks ArryIT!

:thumbup:


* - relatively speaking. Obviously there is no sure fire hits in any class, but this class, from my perspective, has a lot of guys with safe floors, that with the right situation & development could turn into something special.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:44 pm

Hottoddies wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:00 pm
Krypto_King wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:36 pm I don't really understand OP. Without putting names to those claims you could say that about any class. That said, if 2 years from now this class has produced the ADP QB1, WR1, TE1 and a top 10 RB or 2, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
The key to Nostradamus' success was the obscurity of his predictions. But I don't think that that was the point of this thread. I believe that the OP wanted us to reconsider how we view this class; blindly assuming that the glass is half full.
:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Well said. :thumbup: :thumbup:
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:51 pm

Frequently Asked Questions

Question: When did you start to realize that the 2021 class was special (in your opinion)?
Answer: About a month ago I did my first 2021 rookie draft. It is a 16 team 5 round draft so 80 picks deep, and I was making a selection at 4.07 (#55 overall) and realized that this was a guy I could easily see myself targeting in the late 2nd or early 3rd of a 12 team 1 QB draft if things went well in the NFL Draft. I looked over the draft results, and I felt that even after 80 picks that there was still more meat left on the bone to digest.

Question: Couldn't it just be that all the other owners are bad at dynasty and so they just left you all the good players?
Answer: Doubtful. Most of these guys have been playing dynasty at least 5-10 years with plenty of experience with multiple formats. One of them is clarion contrarion (who was kind enough to give my draft a positive grade). And if you're going to be in a league with him, you're not likely to be a dummy, or he'll destroy you really quickly.

Question: I noticed you have not mentioned any names? Why not? Trying to be vague?
Answer: Nope not at all. The reason for that is basically three-fold.

(a) I figure if I start mentioning players, people will start focusing on those names as reasons why/why not the class is good.
(b) The goal was to look at the draft from a wide lens perspective and the fact that I believe that there is a lot of depth, not to point out specific examples
(c) I felt it was pretty obvious, at least from consensus purposes, that most owners knew who the stand out names were already.

Question: Well you talk a good game, but do you walk the walk? Are you actually invested in the 2021 class?
Answer: Absolutely, within reason.

Question: Come again? Can you go into details
Answer: Sure. Depending on the team & the format, I have several leagues where I have made heavy investments into owning 2021 rookie picks.

For example in one orphan I took over, I now have more rookie picks than actual players. 14 players vs. 16 picks. In one of the better known pre-NFL Draft rookie draft leagues, I have another large pile of rookie picks to us. There are leagues where I own 3-4 1st round picks. In another I moved back several times in the 2020 class and now have 6 picks in the top 15 in the 2021 class.

Having said that, no where I have suggested that an owner should go all in, on this or any rookie class. If you're a contending team, I am not going to tell you to trade CMC/Adams/Kittle for a random 1st. I am simply doing my best to remind you to keep an open mind going forward about the 2021 class, and that with a little work on your part, and a little luck, you're likely to come out with some nice assets.

I have several strong contenders, and while I am pretty excited about who could fall to me at the 1.09-1.12 range, I'm not going to be moving guys like them, or Cooper or Kamara, nor am I recommending to any owner who feels they are contenders to do that. You can be excited about a class, without having to be stupid. 8-)

Question: Surely though you can give us some hints or gut feelings, rather than just this overarching commentary?
Answer: Well while I remain dedicated to keeping this a focus on the class as a whole, I will say that I think both the QB1 & TE1 of this class are very safe bets, at least from a floor perspective. I do think though that at least 2 other QBs could rival in upside. Furthermore if one of the QBs falls into the 20s, or a team with a pick in the 2nd half of the draft moves up, rather than be worried, be estatic. That is Aaron Rodgers / Ben Roethlisberger / Pat Mahomes territory (KC went from 27 to 10 remember). You want your rookie QB tied to a winning organization with a lot of support already in place. So if 1 lands in Pittsburgh, TB, New England or New Orleans ....

Question: Anything else? Sure that is not all?
Answer: Ok ok I'll share this thought.

If you're not a contender and you own one of Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Melvin Gordon, Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert or Jamison Crowder - I definitely would recommend selling them for 2021 draft picks.

Question: I am Thielen you're anti Veteran.
Answer: Actually you'd be incorrect. Remember I already said I am not advocating sell CMC/Kittle/Adams for a random 2021 1st. However not all veterans are equal. Those are all guys that I feel have 1 more year of fantasy relevance or less that you can possibly get something from atm - league market dependant of course.

Take Adam Thielen for example - It has been 2 years since he had a WR1 target share, is on the wrong side of 30, was a late breakout (data shows late breakout WRs/RBs are more prone to falling off cliff sooner than early/mid breakout players), and has stiff competition from Justin Jefferson from a QB who could be gone in a year. We are already seeing in dispersals & startups his value falling. I am not saying he wont be productive as a WR2/3 this year, but if you're in a rebuild, this is likely the last safe out to sell him. I get a Doug Baldwin / Jeremy Maclin vibe in my gut. I got a lot of push back on those guys also, but they both disappeared real quick and come 2022 it may be too late.

Marvin Jones? I love Marvin Jones. Highly underrated. But he just changed teams, he's also over 30 and he's good enough to siphon away targets from guys like Chark / Shenault in 2021 but not good enough to demand targets. IE he'll have more NFL value as a steady veteran force in the locker room and help their rookie QB due to his highly skilled route running, than he will as a fantasy asset.

I am simply saying those are all guys whose production wont be enough to make a non contender a contender, their age &/or market value is already in decline, and this is a deep class - so now is a good time to get out.

Question: Can you share some of your favorite 2021 players?
Answer: Not at this time, again trying to focus on the class as a whole rather than get bogged down by focusing on a couple of individuals. I will say that I do have 2 pre-nfl drafts coming up, both of which should be shared on the DLF Forums (they have been previously). So you'll see soon enough some of the people I like. :wave:
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:39 am

With about a week before the 2021 Draft starts we'll soon see the first indicator of how the 2021 class stacks in amongst the other recent classes. It is going to be very interesting, at least for me, to see over the course of the 7 rounds, which players get their names called, and especially to what teams.

Here is what seems to be the most likely projection for the 1st round

5 Quarterbacks
1 Tight End
1-2 Running Backs
2-4 Wide Receivers

Total: 9-12 skill position players

I took this from this consensus article (ie they went through all the recent mocks and created a concensus mock)

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... ore-going/

Here is a short list of recent years 1st rounds - Stopped at 2011 because 10 years seemed sufficient plus that was when the rookie wage scale came into effect.

2020

4 QB
0 TE
1 RB
6 WR
11 Total

2019

3 QB
2 TE
1 RB
2 WR
8 Total

2018

5 QB
1 TE
2 RB
2 WR
10 Total

2017

3 QB
3 TE
2 RB
3 WR
11 Total

2016

3 QB
0 TE
1 RB
4 WR
8 Total

2015

2 QB
0 TE
2 RB
6 WR
10 Total

2014

3 QB
1 TE
0 RB
5 WR
9 Total

2013

1 QB
1 TE
0 RB
3 WR
5 Total

2012

4 QB
0 TE
3 RB
4 WR
11 Total

2011

4 QB
0 TE
1 RB
3 WR
8 Total

-----

I think 2 points can be made

1 - Provided that a minimal of 9 players are taken in the 1st round, the NFL is confirming that the 2021 class is at least similar in top end talent as recent classes (past 4). I am aware there are arguments that there is "need" and not all clases are the same. However the NFL as a whole does show from year to year if they feel a skill position is warranting of a 1st round (and thus 5th round extension) they'll give that position a 1st round draft pick.

2 - Should the upper end be reached 11+ - then this puts the 2021 class in similar territory as previous "elite" classes - but should it go to 12 (or higher??) then this will be a first, since the implementation of the rookie pay scale at least. Not even the 2020 class got 12 skill position players drafted. Is this a lock? Nope - but as seen by the consensus mock article it is at least a possibility serious enough to be considered.

So from a top end upside perspective the 2021 class is currently, at least in terms of NFL draft potential, in good steading, but the jury remains out on how good until the draft itself occurs.

However, what will be really interesting, and I will be sure to compare, will be the Day II & III Totals. After the NFL Draft, when time permits, I'll be sure to review how many skill position selections overall throughout the draft were made in comparison to previous years.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:55 am

To make it easier to review when I check back every year - I put the 3 projections I made into 1 simple post and made them easier to understand.

Pie in the Sky Upside Projection:

4 QBs with at least 1 QB 1 season, 6-7 with at least 1 QB 2 Season
3 WRs with at least 1 WR 1 Season, 12 WRs with at least 1 WR 2 season, 24 WRs with at least 1 WR 3 season
8 RBs with at least 1 RB 1 season, 20 RBs with at least 1 RB 3 Season
5 TEs with at least 1 TE 1 Season, 2 TEs with at least 1 Top 3 Season


Probable Mid-Range Projection:

2 QBs with at least 1 QB 1 season, 4-5 with at least 1 QB 2 Season
2 WRs with at least 1 WR 1 Season, 5-6 WRs with at least 1 WR 2 season, 10-12 WRs with at least 1 WR 3 season
3 RBs with at least 1 RB 1 season, 8-10 RBs with at least 1 RB 3 Season
4 TEs with at least 1 TE 1 Season, 1-2 TEs with at least 1 Top 3 Season


The Sky is Falling Worst-Case Scenario Projection:

1 QBs with at least 1 QB 1 season, 1-2 with at least 1 QB 2 Season
1 WRs with at least 1 WR 1 Season, 3-4 WRs with at least 1 WR 2 season, 6-7 WRs with at least 1 WR 3 season
0 RBs with at least 1 RB 1 season, 3-4 RBs with at least 1 RB 2 Season, 4-6 RBs with at least 1 RB 3 Season
1 TEs with at least 1 TE 1 Season, 2-3 TEs with at least 1 TE 2 Season


----

I made no edits or changes to the original projections. However due to attrition, health concerns that crop up, and unexpected occurrences (ie off-field news) I personally would be satisfied if some players end up covering the tab for others. IE like if 1 WR ends up having 5 WR2 Seasons because others had season ending injuries or such. Anyways going to be fun to follow the progress of this class as it goes through the NFL draft & then the upcoming seasons. Hopefully by 2023-24 we'll have a better sense of exactly how useful this class has become from a fantasy / dynasty vantage point. :)
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby broncohead » Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:22 am

Great info! I’m in SF in all of my leagues and really like the top end of this draft. Seems to be a high end prospect at every position except RB (which I would say is average). I don’t follow college football and rely heavily on draft position and analytics (breakout age, dominator, combine, and so on). Covid has made it harder for people like me to evaluate the depth of this class. Can you comment on depth and where you see the strength of this class outside of the 12 you were referring to?
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WR - AJ Brown, DJ Moore, Gabriel Davis, Slayton, Hamler, Isabella
TE - Fant, Burton, Firkser, Keene, Okuegbunam
2021 Draft - 1.09, 3rd

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:07 pm

ArrylT wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:39 am Here is what seems to be the most likely projection for the 1st round

5 Quarterbacks
1 Tight End
1-2 Running Backs
2-4 Wide Receivers

Total: 9-12 skill position players
Just wanted to add, that the "will 5 WR's be taken in the 1st round" is a prop bet that has been gaining some steam in the last week - though it may have just been cooled off slightly with the news of Terrace Marshall popping for medicals.

(although it's also hard to know if this is more smoke-screening, there are currently no details and it is officially THAT TIME of the year)

Regardless, I believe it is a lock that the following WR's go before pick 20-ish in Round 1:
- Chase
- Waddle
- Smith

... and then in the 20's through to 31 - you've got a number of teams that could be very thirsty for more pass catching: Baltimore, Green Bay, Kansas, Chicago, Tennessee, and potentially even the Saints and the Browns (depends how they think the OBJ experiment is going, I would think) all have a reasonably serious need at WR.

Pretty easy to see Bateman going in the 20's somewhere, and then it's down to your pick of the Moore's, Marshall, and perhaps even Toney. I really think we could see 5 WR's go in the 1st.

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Ice » Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:25 pm

This NFL draft is so deep at OT and DB that WR's are going to get pushed down some IMO due the high quality at the WR position. This looks to be a very strong NFL class outside of interior D-Line almost everywhere. We will know in about 3 years just how good this class really is compared to others.

I would bet the under that 5 WR's go in round 1. I do think 6 offensive linemen and 6 DB's will go in round 1. Although unlikely, I would not be surprised if a 6th QB goes very late round 1 due to the 5th year option.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:36 pm

broncohead wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:22 am Great info! I’m in SF in all of my leagues and really like the top end of this draft. Seems to be a high end prospect at every position except RB (which I would say is average). I don’t follow college football and rely heavily on draft position and analytics (breakout age, dominator, combine, and so on). Covid has made it harder for people like me to evaluate the depth of this class. Can you comment on depth and where you see the strength of this class outside of the 12 you were referring to?
I hope I am answering your question correctly.

I think that the strength of this class is that it offers both a large degree of depth & strong upside in a solid volume in all 4 skill positions.

Basically there are elite players at all 4 positions, and there is enough depth at all 4 positions, that even if you do not have a 1st round pick, at least in SF or TE premium formats, you're still likely to get a player that (imho) is still going to help you out. Furthermore the talent depth is such that there are a lot of players that will only need limited development and/or the right situation/opportunity to have success, either right out of the gate or within 1-2 years.

Apart from that, if I had to choose, like if you had to pick 1 of your four favorite ice cream flavours to love the most, I would say that the depth & breadth of this WR class is one of its best features. As I mentioned earlier in the thread there are WRs for all needs.

Alpha WR1? Yes.
WR 2? Yes.
Slot? Yes.
Deep Threat? Yes.
Reception Maven? Yes.
Great Route Runners? Yes.
3 position depth guy? Yes.

Teams tend to have a large range of variance when it comes to WRs. If a team feels it only is in the market for Slot receivers - then it is not likely to have other types of WRs high on the board. A team in need of one type of WR isnt worried about how good a guy is at playing a different WR position just the position they're concerned about with their offensive scheme. But the jack of all trades nature of this class is basically telling all NFL teams that there is something here for them. Furthermore we have seen that a large variety of types of WRs can end up being NFL & fantasy relevant.

I think down the road, as a whole, we could very well see that the 2021 WR class will outperform the 2020 class. Again as a whole. I am not saying top 3 or top 5, but the group as a whole. Although maybe the #1 WR of 2021 could challenge the #1 of 2020 - but who knows *shrugs*.

But we'll definitely see both guys we expect to do well, and surprises, at all 4 of the positions. 8-)
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:16 pm

Ice wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:25 pm I would bet the under that 5 WR's go in round 1. I do think 6 offensive linemen and 6 DB's will go in round 1. Although unlikely, I would not be surprised if a 6th QB goes very late round 1 due to the 5th year option.
I tried, I really did... you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink :wink:

Ravens trade today locks in another WR going at the end of Round 1. I would say that's 4 locks.

Lest we forget Brandon Aiyuk - it's about if a team has a first round grade on a WR, and we're not always privy to that. I would -not- bet that under right now.

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Ice » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:21 pm

mild wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:16 pm
Ice wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:25 pm I would bet the under that 5 WR's go in round 1. I do think 6 offensive linemen and 6 DB's will go in round 1. Although unlikely, I would not be surprised if a 6th QB goes very late round 1 due to the 5th year option.
I tried, I really did... you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink :wink:

Ravens trade today locks in another WR going at the end of Round 1. I would say that's 4 locks.

Lest we forget Brandon Aiyuk - it's about if a team has a first round grade on a WR, and we're not always privy to that. I would -not- bet that under right now.
You could be right. The Ravens could take WR but they could go defense and OT.

I don’t see a lock pick but have thought for a long time 4 would go for sure.

I see 3 lock first round talents. Had 4 until the recent medical on my 4th lock.

Will be interesting for sure
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby broncohead » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:56 pm

ArrylT wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:36 pm
broncohead wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:22 am Great info! I’m in SF in all of my leagues and really like the top end of this draft. Seems to be a high end prospect at every position except RB (which I would say is average). I don’t follow college football and rely heavily on draft position and analytics (breakout age, dominator, combine, and so on). Covid has made it harder for people like me to evaluate the depth of this class. Can you comment on depth and where you see the strength of this class outside of the 12 you were referring to?
I hope I am answering your question correctly.

I think that the strength of this class is that it offers both a large degree of depth & strong upside in a solid volume in all 4 skill positions.

Basically there are elite players at all 4 positions, and there is enough depth at all 4 positions, that even if you do not have a 1st round pick, at least in SF or TE premium formats, you're still likely to get a player that (imho) is still going to help you out. Furthermore the talent depth is such that there are a lot of players that will only need limited development and/or the right situation/opportunity to have success, either right out of the gate or within 1-2 years.

Apart from that, if I had to choose, like if you had to pick 1 of your four favorite ice cream flavours to love the most, I would say that the depth & breadth of this WR class is one of its best features. As I mentioned earlier in the thread there are WRs for all needs.

Alpha WR1? Yes.
WR 2? Yes.
Slot? Yes.
Deep Threat? Yes.
Reception Maven? Yes.
Great Route Runners? Yes.
3 position depth guy? Yes.

Teams tend to have a large range of variance when it comes to WRs. If a team feels it only is in the market for Slot receivers - then it is not likely to have other types of WRs high on the board. A team in need of one type of WR isnt worried about how good a guy is at playing a different WR position just the position they're concerned about with their offensive scheme. But the jack of all trades nature of this class is basically telling all NFL teams that there is something here for them. Furthermore we have seen that a large variety of types of WRs can end up being NFL & fantasy relevant.

I think down the road, as a whole, we could very well see that the 2021 WR class will outperform the 2020 class. Again as a whole. I am not saying top 3 or top 5, but the group as a whole. Although maybe the #1 WR of 2021 could challenge the #1 of 2020 - but who knows *shrugs*.

But we'll definitely see both guys we expect to do well, and surprises, at all 4 of the positions. 8-)
Yes that answers my question. I have a lot of draft picks this year so I was interested in the depth of the class. Was contemplating whether to actively try and trade out or not. Appreciate it!
48 team, 4 copy league, QB, RB, WR, WR, TE, SF, 4 flex
QB - Wentz, Tannehill, Mayfield, Jones, Alex Smith
RB - Chubb, Hunt, Swift, Akers, Henderson, Mostert, Mack, Bowden, Hill
WR - AJ Brown, DJ Moore, Gabriel Davis, Slayton, Hamler, Isabella
TE - Fant, Burton, Firkser, Keene, Okuegbunam
2021 Draft - 1.09, 3rd

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:26 pm

Ice wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:21 pm You could be right. The Ravens could take WR but they could go defense and OT.

I don’t see a lock pick but have thought for a long time 4 would go for sure.

I see 3 lock first round talents. Had 4 until the recent medical on my 4th lock.

Will be interesting for sure
I agree on Terrace Marshall - he was going to be the swing pick for 5th WR taken for me, I saw him as the WR prospect that was rising fastest after his testing/weight came in. Very much a bummer to hear about the medical - but we're also yet to hear anything concrete, so I think it's just as liable to be a smokescreen from a team trying to make him fall as much as an -actual- concern. We shall see!

Rashod Bateman is most definitely a 1st round receiver, don't let his weight/size fool you. Analytically speaking and from the eye test - he's the guy that ticks every box for me, the only other one is Chase. His physicality at the catch point is exactly what the Ravens are looking for, I don't think he'll make it past them if he's there at the end of Round 1.

Elijah Moore and Rondale Moore are both worthy of high picks too imo - but if I was a GM I'd be more comfortable taking them at value in the 2nd than the 1st, it would be reasonable if both dropped due to their more limited ceilings (neither guy is ever going to play X receiver in the NFL)


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