Why the 2021 Rookie Class might be the most valuable in Recent Dynasty History

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Sat May 01, 2021 5:30 pm

A question I have been asking myself is - Apart from how possible is it that the projections I posted could be viable is exactly how do we compare draft classes? How valuable is a rookie class as a whole? Per Position?

I have decided I will try to answer that. It will take a lot of time. and will probably be a slow slog until after Rookie Draft season, but I would like to get a quantitative value on each draft class, starting with 2002. I'm going to start from 2002 and work forward, adding classes as they are fully retired.

2002 as a Draft class did not completely retire until last year, with Josh McCown.

I plan a 2 prong approach.

Part 1 - How many weeks was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been in a lineup

Part 2 - How many seasons was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been on a roster on a typical ppr league

In Part I I will be dividing value as such

Top 5
Top 12
Top 24
Top 36/48

QBs will be valued 5, 12 & 24
RBs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 36
WRs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 48
TEs will be valued 5 & 12.

Points will be rewarded, with an effort to try and make top 5 performances worth 2x as much as top 12 and 6-10x more valuable as top 36/48.

Why top 5? Well that is how FBG lists them *shrugs*

QBs go to 24 due to QB 1 & SF formats.
RBs go to 36 due to Start 1-3 dynasty formats & flex potential
WRs go to 48 due to Start 2-4 dynasty & flex potential
TEs go only to 12 due to the limited # of TE Premium leagues until recent years.

Anyways I have already completed the 2002 QB class - hopefully each week I'll be able to complete a complete draft class - as much as possible giving some classes still have players in the NFL. Notable UDFA will be included. As such Shaun Hill is recorded.

That will then give me/us a means on which to compare the more recent classes, including of course 2021. I'll post a thread at a later date (ie in 6-8 weeks) with my findings.

What I will share now is that the most valuable QB, at least based on my findings & scoring tabulation, of the 2002 Class was David Garrard, followed by Josh McCown - and not David Carr or Joey Harrington.

Ranking

David Garrard (led class in most Top 12 QB weeks)
Josh McCown (led class in most Top 5 QB weeks)
gap
Carr / Harrington tie
gap
Shaun Hill
Patrick Ramsey
gap
Quinn Gray
JT O'Sullivan
Chad Hutchinson
gap
everyone else had no value whatsover

Anyways in a few months I'll be able to share how QB classes compared, how RB classes compared, etc.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Sun May 02, 2021 7:31 am

Last update I swear. :lol: :oops:

Already made some alterations to my formula to quantitatively record the value of a Class

1 - Altered QB & TE scoring, while also keeping original scoring format

This allows me to

(a) better reflect value in 1 QB vs. SF
(b) lowered TE value vs. other positions while keeping the value of them amongst themselves / against other classes

ie a top 5 TE finish still only makes a TE usually a top 24 WR, so ergo shouldnt be scored identically.

(c) make it more useful for typical ppr vs. QB/TE Premium scoring

2 - Decided to include a top 12 of each class

So now each position will be compared, and the top 12 overall players can be too.

Anyways as a tidbit here are the top 12 of 2002 Rookie Class, based on how often they should have been in your lineup. As always this data can be requested privately (it will be in excel format)

Clinton Portis
Brian Westbrook
David Garrard
Josh McCown
Jeremy Shockey
Deion Branch
Antonio Bryant
Joey Harrington
Donte Stallworth
David Carr
Randy McMichael
Chester Taylor
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:19 pm

I normally tend not to share my avoid players - basically because (a) there are usually a fair number of them and (b) I dont think it matters much to most people.

However since I have been pretty active in advocating that 2021 has potential to be quite useful to dynasty owners I figured I would share the only players I have been avoiding in 2021 rookie drafts.

By avoid I usually mean I wont draft them unless they become an obvious value and can be traded easily for something I would prefer. IE I wouldnt draft a guy who I am avoiding if say they were a 2.04-2.08 range at 2.09. If they fell to mid/late 3rd different story.

Below each player I'll share the range where I'd have considered acquiring but at the moment I have 0 shares of any of these players despite being in 10+ leagues.

QB:

Zach Wilson
SF: #15 or later
1 QB: #40 or later

Kellen Mond
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise have shares of the other 7 of the top 9 2021 Rookie QB

RB:

Gerrid Doaks
Kene Nwangu
Pick #60 or later (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise have shares of majority of the other top 20 Rookie RB

WR:

Tutu Atwell
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise pretty much have at least 1 share of the other top 24 2021 Rookie WR

TE:

Brevin Jordan
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Kyle Granson
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise pretty much have 1 share of the other top 8 2021 Rookie TE
----

Doaks, Nwangu, Atwell & Jordan are usually 3rd round or later draft adp ergo why you're seeing such a late target range for me. Occasionally one of them will sneak into the top 24/32 (depending on 12/14/16 team format & 1 QB/SF).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Jrblaha » Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:26 pm

ArrylT wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 5:30 pm A question I have been asking myself is - Apart from how possible is it that the projections I posted could be viable is exactly how do we compare draft classes? How valuable is a rookie class as a whole? Per Position?

I have decided I will try to answer that. It will take a lot of time. and will probably be a slow slog until after Rookie Draft season, but I would like to get a quantitative value on each draft class, starting with 2002. I'm going to start from 2002 and work forward, adding classes as they are fully retired.

2002 as a Draft class did not completely retire until last year, with Josh McCown.

I plan a 2 prong approach.

Part 1 - How many weeks was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been in a lineup

Part 2 - How many seasons was a player fantasy viable?
IE how many times should he have been on a roster on a typical ppr league

In Part I I will be dividing value as such

Top 5
Top 12
Top 24
Top 36/48

QBs will be valued 5, 12 & 24
RBs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 36
WRs will be valued 5, 12, 24 & 48
TEs will be valued 5 & 12.

Points will be rewarded, with an effort to try and make top 5 performances worth 2x as much as top 12 and 6-10x more valuable as top 36/48.

Why top 5? Well that is how FBG lists them *shrugs*

QBs go to 24 due to QB 1 & SF formats.
RBs go to 36 due to Start 1-3 dynasty formats & flex potential
WRs go to 48 due to Start 2-4 dynasty & flex potential
TEs go only to 12 due to the limited # of TE Premium leagues until recent years.

Anyways I have already completed the 2002 QB class - hopefully each week I'll be able to complete a complete draft class - as much as possible giving some classes still have players in the NFL. Notable UDFA will be included. As such Shaun Hill is recorded.

That will then give me/us a means on which to compare the more recent classes, including of course 2021. I'll post a thread at a later date (ie in 6-8 weeks) with my findings.

What I will share now is that the most valuable QB, at least based on my findings & scoring tabulation, of the 2002 Class was David Garrard, followed by Josh McCown - and not David Carr or Joey Harrington.

Ranking

David Garrard (led class in most Top 12 QB weeks)
Josh McCown (led class in most Top 5 QB weeks)
gap
Carr / Harrington tie
gap
Shaun Hill
Patrick Ramsey
gap
Quinn Gray
JT O'Sullivan
Chad Hutchinson
gap
everyone else had no value whatsover

Anyways in a few months I'll be able to share how QB classes compared, how RB classes compared, etc.
I look forward to the updates probably more than I should. Good work!
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)

QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry

Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:28 pm

Jrblaha wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:26 pm
I look forward to the updates probably more than I should. Good work!
Glad to hear that - I am about to start work on the 2nd part of my dive into the value of each rookie class now that most of my rookie drafts have completed or are under way (I still have 3 to go). I'll be sure to update that on the other thread I started. Best of luck in your rookie drafts and with your dynasty teams in 2021. :)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:35 pm

ArrylT wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:28 pm
Jrblaha wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:26 pm
I look forward to the updates probably more than I should. Good work!
Glad to hear that - I am about to start work on the 2nd part of my dive into the value of each rookie class now that most of my rookie drafts have completed or are under way (I still have 3 to go). I'll be sure to update that on the other thread I started. Best of luck in your rookie drafts and with your dynasty teams in 2021. :)
Lucky!! And I too am looking forward to seeing how all this plays out.

While I'm not in nearly as many leagues as a lot of community members, I do wish my leagues drafted earlier. All of our drafts take place in August. While that can be beneficial in some ways, say a rookie suffers a season-ending injury, it's also awfully tough to wait. Kind of like opening gifts on Christmas Morning (if you're into that sort of thing :) ).

I'm currently sitting at 1.05 and 1.12 and have yet to really decide what to do. I had planned to stand-pat and take BPA, but might just explore moving up a bit to make sure I get one of my three targets. I'm not sure I'd be happy with consolation prizes should things not fall my way.
14 Team, No-PPR, 20 Man Roster, TD Heavy, TD = 6, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, B. Purdy, T. Lance
RB: J. Mixon, N. Chubb, A. Dillon, J. Cook, K. Mitchell, J. McLaughlin, Z. Evans
WR: J. Chase, C. Godwin, D. Johnson, J. Reed, C. Tillman
TE: TJ Hockenson, D. Njoku, B. Jordan

14 Team, .5 PPR, 18 Man Roster, Rush/Rec TD = 6, Pass TD = 4, FG = 3, Start: QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, K, D
QB: L. Jackson, T. Tagovailoa
RB: B. Robinson, K. Walker, R. Stevenson, K. Herbertl
WR: C. Olave, T. Higgins, B. Aiyuk, N. Collins, Z. Flowers, M. Mims
TE: K. Pitts, D. Njoku

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby AussieMate » Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:55 pm

ArrylT wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:19 pm I normally tend not to share my avoid players - basically because (a) there are usually a fair number of them and (b) I dont think it matters much to most people.

However since I have been pretty active in advocating that 2021 has potential to be quite useful to dynasty owners I figured I would share the only players I have been avoiding in 2021 rookie drafts.

By avoid I usually mean I wont draft them unless they become an obvious value and can be traded easily for something I would prefer. IE I wouldnt draft a guy who I am avoiding if say they were a 2.04-2.08 range at 2.09. If they fell to mid/late 3rd different story.

Below each player I'll share the range where I'd have considered acquiring but at the moment I have 0 shares of any of these players despite being in 10+ leagues.

QB:

Zach Wilson
SF: #15 or later
1 QB: #40 or later

Kellen Mond
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise have shares of the other 7 of the top 9 2021 Rookie QB

RB:

Gerrid Doaks
Kene Nwangu
Pick #60 or later (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise have shares of majority of the other top 20 Rookie RB

WR:

Tutu Atwell
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise pretty much have at least 1 share of the other top 24 2021 Rookie WR

TE:

Brevin Jordan
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Kyle Granson
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise pretty much have 1 share of the other top 8 2021 Rookie TE
----

Doaks, Nwangu, Atwell & Jordan are usually 3rd round or later draft adp ergo why you're seeing such a late target range for me. Occasionally one of them will sneak into the top 24/32 (depending on 12/14/16 team format & 1 QB/SF).
Loved all these updates but you've just broken my heart by avoiding Zach Wilson my fav player in the draft. Now I have no choice but ignore all you've written in here as though you are a deranged lunatic, its either that I go back and re-asses my view of Wilson...... no I don't think I'll do that, Zach is amazing :snooty:

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:15 pm

AussieMate wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:55 pm
ArrylT wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:19 pm I normally tend not to share my avoid players - basically because (a) there are usually a fair number of them and (b) I dont think it matters much to most people.

However since I have been pretty active in advocating that 2021 has potential to be quite useful to dynasty owners I figured I would share the only players I have been avoiding in 2021 rookie drafts.

By avoid I usually mean I wont draft them unless they become an obvious value and can be traded easily for something I would prefer. IE I wouldnt draft a guy who I am avoiding if say they were a 2.04-2.08 range at 2.09. If they fell to mid/late 3rd different story.

Below each player I'll share the range where I'd have considered acquiring but at the moment I have 0 shares of any of these players despite being in 10+ leagues.

QB:

Zach Wilson
SF: #15 or later
1 QB: #40 or later

Kellen Mond
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise have shares of the other 7 of the top 9 2021 Rookie QB

RB:

Gerrid Doaks
Kene Nwangu
Pick #60 or later (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise have shares of majority of the other top 20 Rookie RB

WR:

Tutu Atwell
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise pretty much have at least 1 share of the other top 24 2021 Rookie WR

TE:

Brevin Jordan
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Kyle Granson
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise pretty much have 1 share of the other top 8 2021 Rookie TE
----

Doaks, Nwangu, Atwell & Jordan are usually 3rd round or later draft adp ergo why you're seeing such a late target range for me. Occasionally one of them will sneak into the top 24/32 (depending on 12/14/16 team format & 1 QB/SF).
Loved all these updates but you've just broken my heart by avoiding Zach Wilson my fav player in the draft. Now I have no choice but ignore all you've written in here as though you are a deranged lunatic, its either that I go back and re-asses my view of Wilson...... no I don't think I'll do that, Zach is amazing :snooty:
I think it is extremely vital that you do exactly that. The make your own decision part. Obviously we all collect the information and process it and it is always quite interesting (to me at least) how we see the same tree in completely different ways.

And just as obviously there is nothing wrong if it turns out I am wrong on a player, or if you are or another owner is. We learn more from our mistakes than we do from our successes after all. Success can hide bad process or bad decision making, whereas mistakes remind us and/or force us to re-visit what we are doing and why it went wrong.

And just for the record I am in no way labelling or calling any of the players a guaranteed bust. Rather I have more concerns about those players and with so many other options to choose from ... there is no need for me to make selections I do not feel are worth the cost of acquisition - IE after all with 5 immediate starting QBs its not like you when you have to pick between Manning & Leaf. :lol:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:21 pm

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:35 pm
ArrylT wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:28 pm
Jrblaha wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:26 pm
I look forward to the updates probably more than I should. Good work!
Glad to hear that - I am about to start work on the 2nd part of my dive into the value of each rookie class now that most of my rookie drafts have completed or are under way (I still have 3 to go). I'll be sure to update that on the other thread I started. Best of luck in your rookie drafts and with your dynasty teams in 2021. :)
Lucky!! And I too am looking forward to seeing how all this plays out.

While I'm not in nearly as many leagues as a lot of community members, I do wish my leagues drafted earlier. All of our drafts take place in August. While that can be beneficial in some ways, say a rookie suffers a season-ending injury, it's also awfully tough to wait. Kind of like opening gifts on Christmas Morning (if you're into that sort of thing :) ).

I'm currently sitting at 1.05 and 1.12 and have yet to really decide what to do. I had planned to stand-pat and take BPA, but might just explore moving up a bit to make sure I get one of my three targets. I'm not sure I'd be happy with consolation prizes should things not fall my way.
Yeah I know the feeling (of the late drafts). I think the difference in some years between early drafts & late drafts can be quite start at times. I recall 2017 you could get Kenny Golladay in late 3rd early 4ths in early rookie drafts - but by August he was almost an early 2nd. So for owners that like a more paint by numbers draft the August drafts are where it is at - but if you like a more unpredictable draft with chances at grabbing potential values as they drop May & June are more your cup of tea. The later we go the more information, data points & adp so the more set in stone it gets.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Sriracha » Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:39 pm

ArrylT wrote: Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:19 pm I normally tend not to share my avoid players - basically because (a) there are usually a fair number of them and (b) I dont think it matters much to most people.

However since I have been pretty active in advocating that 2021 has potential to be quite useful to dynasty owners I figured I would share the only players I have been avoiding in 2021 rookie drafts.

By avoid I usually mean I wont draft them unless they become an obvious value and can be traded easily for something I would prefer. IE I wouldnt draft a guy who I am avoiding if say they were a 2.04-2.08 range at 2.09. If they fell to mid/late 3rd different story.

Below each player I'll share the range where I'd have considered acquiring but at the moment I have 0 shares of any of these players despite being in 10+ leagues.

QB:

Zach Wilson
SF: #15 or later
1 QB: #40 or later

Kellen Mond
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise have shares of the other 7 of the top 9 2021 Rookie QB

RB:

Gerrid Doaks
Kene Nwangu
Pick #60 or later (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise have shares of majority of the other top 20 Rookie RB

WR:

Tutu Atwell
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Otherwise pretty much have at least 1 share of the other top 24 2021 Rookie WR

TE:

Brevin Jordan
Pick #60 (or waiver wire if less than 5 round draft)

Kyle Granson
Completely off board do not touch

Otherwise pretty much have 1 share of the other top 8 2021 Rookie TE
----

Doaks, Nwangu, Atwell & Jordan are usually 3rd round or later draft adp ergo why you're seeing such a late target range for me. Occasionally one of them will sneak into the top 24/32 (depending on 12/14/16 team format & 1 QB/SF).
Out of curiosity, what about Kellen Mond has him completely off your board?

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Ice » Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:12 pm

I never worry about how others rank players. Don't think ArryIT is predicting they bust but more concerns where they are drafted today vs how he looks at them.

I will say I like Wilson a lot personally. Many are comparing him to Mahomes due to off script throws but I see a bit of Montana in him. Understand it is early but he just has that it factor I look at QB's when it comes to adaptability and defense processing speed which is the most critical factor. Obviously it is really early. The Jets looked to have finally made a lot of good decisions. He could be a Mayfield type that really just needs stability to thrive.

Mond actually reminds me of a poor man's Dak Prescott. He is very athletic and the starter he is playing behind is a good guy without worry so will really help him and has said as much recently. In a SF league I see him as a must have due to his 2023 upside. He has a lot of skill sets to work with especially in the work ethic department.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:06 pm

Ice wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:12 pm I never worry about how others rank players. Don't think ArryIT is predicting they bust but more concerns where they are drafted today vs how he looks at them.

I will say I like Wilson a lot personally. Many are comparing him to Mahomes due to off script throws but I see a bit of Montana in him. Understand it is early but he just has that it factor I look at QB's when it comes to adaptability and defense processing speed which is the most critical factor. Obviously it is really early. The Jets looked to have finally made a lot of good decisions. He could be a Mayfield type that really just needs stability to thrive.

Mond actually reminds me of a poor man's Dak Prescott. He is very athletic and the starter he is playing behind is a good guy without worry so will really help him and has said as much recently. In a SF league I see him as a must have due to his 2023 upside. He has a lot of skill sets to work with especially in the work ethic department.
Well said sir!

Yeah I am not ranking them specifically - just that for my comfort / risk analysis those are the players I cannot feel comfortable acquiring at current draft cost.
Sriracha wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:39 pm Out of curiosity, what about Kellen Mond has him completely off your board?
There is certainly no denying he has a strong arm and can make all sorts of throws. However, he seems to me at least, like one of those looks like a QB more than he actually is a QB (ie more flash than substance). I would describe him as a QB who needs a specific system built to hide his flaws (think like Nick Foles when in the right situation). So basically I think he needs to develop for 2-3 years, improve aspects of his game that are difficult to improve, and be in the right system tailored for him.

The fact that he did not improve his accuracy consistency despite 4 years of college is a big concern to me. The fact that he gets rattled easily (to me) is a concern. It looks as though his accuracy, statistically speaking, in the final season improved due mainly because the team found ways to hide his flaws rather than him actually improving (ie got him clean pockets & easy reads due to Shotgun RPO system).

If I had to guess I would say his career will follow something like Rob Johnson or Brock Osweiler - ie he'll sit behind a QB for a few years - get just enough game film to look promising to a team that is "desperate" and then thud. But if he had to play this year he'd be my candidate to be most likely to replicate Nathan Petermans infamous performance. Again that is based on the current snapshot in time. Obviously things can change as one develops.

This video best describes how I would feel about Mond (well the guy in the middle but the other 2 seem lukewarm at best about him)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5GOMhubYes

I just dont want to draft a guy stash him for a couple of years and hope he can be Jalen Hurts (who still has yet to prove he can be a long term starter). I get that many people are interested in him for the short-term rushing upside - I just dont really care much about that - my interest is always the long term value to my squad when it comes to QBs. Thats just my approach and I totally respect it if others do it differently. :thumbup: Plus when was the last time Kirk Cousins missed extensive time to allow his backup to get playing time?
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Sriracha » Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:39 pm

ArrylT wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:06 pm
Sriracha wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:39 pm Out of curiosity, what about Kellen Mond has him completely off your board?
There is certainly no denying he has a strong arm and can make all sorts of throws. However, he seems to me at least, like one of those looks like a QB more than he actually is a QB (ie more flash than substance). I would describe him as a QB who needs a specific system built to hide his flaws (think like Nick Foles when in the right situation). So basically I think he needs to develop for 2-3 years, improve aspects of his game that are difficult to improve, and be in the right system tailored for him.

The fact that he did not improve his accuracy consistency despite 4 years of college is a big concern to me. The fact that he gets rattled easily (to me) is a concern. It looks as though his accuracy, statistically speaking, in the final season improved due mainly because the team found ways to hide his flaws rather than him actually improving (ie got him clean pockets & easy reads due to Shotgun RPO system).

If I had to guess I would say his career will follow something like Rob Johnson or Brock Osweiler - ie he'll sit behind a QB for a few years - get just enough game film to look promising to a team that is "desperate" and then thud. But if he had to play this year he'd be my candidate to be most likely to replicate Nathan Petermans infamous performance. Again that is based on the current snapshot in time. Obviously things can change as one develops.

This video best describes how I would feel about Mond (well the guy in the middle but the other 2 seem lukewarm at best about him)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5GOMhubYes

I just dont want to draft a guy stash him for a couple of years and hope he can be Jalen Hurts (who still has yet to prove he can be a long term starter). I get that many people are interested in him for the short-term rushing upside - I just dont really care much about that - my interest is always the long term value to my squad when it comes to QBs. Thats just my approach and I totally respect it if others do it differently. :thumbup: Plus when was the last time Kirk Cousins missed extensive time to allow his backup to get playing time?
I see thanks for the elaboration.

I'm going to disagree on this:
The fact that he did not improve his accuracy consistency despite 4 years of college is a big concern to me.
His completion percentage actually improved every single year he was in college. His Y/A and passer rating also showed a linear improvement outside of a Junior season dip. Is he still somewhat of an erratic passer? Certainly, but you can't say he's hasn't improved in 4 years. By the numbers he's shown marginal improvement year over year.

He's certainly going to require some polishing, but I'm a little more optimistic on his potential given his tool kit. His arm strength is up there with anyone in the class, and despite the erratic play of his accuracy he does showcase top notch ball placement more often than not which gives me hope that his accuracy issues are correctable.

I'm personally not a film guy, but many people have talked up his decision making and chalked up a lot of his errors to being forced to make very difficult throws game over game due to playing with a less talented team. Again, not my opinion but it's interesting how many people can see the same film and come to wildly different opinions.

By all means, you should go with your own analysis but I'd hesitate to close the door on the possibility that he could hit given the level of optimism some people have about his game.

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ArrylT
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:49 pm

Oh rest assured I will not put the chances of him succeeding at 0%. I'm open to changing my mind if we hear good reports about his development and hope he can overcome some of the flaws to which concern me. So absolutely, while I am doubtful, I remain willing to monitor from the sidelines. As an owner I've slowly become more open to adjusting my initial stance on players as the years progress. So if Mond does something, I'll do my best to not ignore it or shut the door completely.

In the end, Kirk Cousins has a big impact on my decision not to bother drafting him this year. If he had say landed on Philadelphia or Miami where there was some concern about the QB1 remaining healthy ... But in 1 QB leagues I see no need to stash him (even in deep leagues with taxis) and in SF/2 QB leagues I'll be comfortable waiting to see - his cost in those leagues was already a mid/late 2nd to mid 3rd then he'd need to do a fair amount to have his cost of acquisition skyrocket.

Either way appreciate you sharing your perspective! :) You make a solid point that perhaps his success on some pinpoint accuracy throws at times could hopefully lead to improved consistency re: his accuracy overall.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Chwf3rd » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:13 pm

ArrylT wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:06 pm
Ice wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 6:12 pm I never worry about how others rank players. Don't think ArryIT is predicting they bust but more concerns where they are drafted today vs how he looks at them.

I will say I like Wilson a lot personally. Many are comparing him to Mahomes due to off script throws but I see a bit of Montana in him. Understand it is early but he just has that it factor I look at QB's when it comes to adaptability and defense processing speed which is the most critical factor. Obviously it is really early. The Jets looked to have finally made a lot of good decisions. He could be a Mayfield type that really just needs stability to thrive.

Mond actually reminds me of a poor man's Dak Prescott. He is very athletic and the starter he is playing behind is a good guy without worry so will really help him and has said as much recently. In a SF league I see him as a must have due to his 2023 upside. He has a lot of skill sets to work with especially in the work ethic department.
Well said sir!

Yeah I am not ranking them specifically - just that for my comfort / risk analysis those are the players I cannot feel comfortable acquiring at current draft cost.
Sriracha wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:39 pm Out of curiosity, what about Kellen Mond has him completely off your board?
There is certainly no denying he has a strong arm and can make all sorts of throws. However, he seems to me at least, like one of those looks like a QB more than he actually is a QB (ie more flash than substance). I would describe him as a QB who needs a specific system built to hide his flaws (think like Nick Foles when in the right situation). So basically I think he needs to develop for 2-3 years, improve aspects of his game that are difficult to improve, and be in the right system tailored for him.

The fact that he did not improve his accuracy consistency despite 4 years of college is a big concern to me. The fact that he gets rattled easily (to me) is a concern. It looks as though his accuracy, statistically speaking, in the final season improved due mainly because the team found ways to hide his flaws rather than him actually improving (ie got him clean pockets & easy reads due to Shotgun RPO system).

If I had to guess I would say his career will follow something like Rob Johnson or Brock Osweiler - ie he'll sit behind a QB for a few years - get just enough game film to look promising to a team that is "desperate" and then thud. But if he had to play this year he'd be my candidate to be most likely to replicate Nathan Petermans infamous performance. Again that is based on the current snapshot in time. Obviously things can change as one develops.

This video best describes how I would feel about Mond (well the guy in the middle but the other 2 seem lukewarm at best about him)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5GOMhubYes

I just dont want to draft a guy stash him for a couple of years and hope he can be Jalen Hurts (who still has yet to prove he can be a long term starter). I get that many people are interested in him for the short-term rushing upside - I just dont really care much about that - my interest is always the long term value to my squad when it comes to QBs. Thats just my approach and I totally respect it if others do it differently. :thumbup: Plus when was the last time Kirk Cousins missed extensive time to allow his backup to get playing time?
If Mond is Rob Johnson or Osweiller wouldn’t he be a must draft at his cost?

That’s a starting QB in the 3rd rd.
Team 1 - 12 team PPR
QB: MRyan, MJones, CNewton, RFitz
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, JMixon, AJDillon, LMurray, DarWilliams, GBernard
WR: SDiggs, ACooper, BAiyuk, JJones, LShenault, BCooks, KToney, KHamler, VJefferson
TE: JSmith, ISmith, ZErtz

Team 2 - 16 team, PPR, SF
QB: JBurrow, CWentz, ZWilson, Jimmy G
RB: SBarkley, DSwift, CAkers, BSnell, TGurley, DGuice
WR: JChase, BAiyuk, CSutton, THiggins, JJeudy, JReagor, BEdwards
TE: ISmith, HarBryant, DSample, TTremble


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