Why the 2021 Rookie Class might be the most valuable in Recent Dynasty History

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Ice » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:50 pm

mild wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:26 pm
Ice wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:21 pm You could be right. The Ravens could take WR but they could go defense and OT.

I don’t see a lock pick but have thought for a long time 4 would go for sure.

I see 3 lock first round talents. Had 4 until the recent medical on my 4th lock.

Will be interesting for sure
I agree on Terrace Marshall - he was going to be the swing pick for 5th WR taken for me, I saw him as the WR prospect that was rising fastest after his testing/weight came in. Very much a bummer to hear about the medical - but we're also yet to hear anything concrete, so I think it's just as liable to be a smokescreen from a team trying to make him fall as much as an -actual- concern. We shall see!

Rashod Bateman is most definitely a 1st round receiver, don't let his weight/size fool you. Analytically speaking and from the eye test - he's the guy that ticks every box for me, the only other one is Chase. His physicality at the catch point is exactly what the Ravens are looking for, I don't think he'll make it past them if he's there at the end of Round 1.

Elijah Moore and Rondale Moore are both worthy of high picks too imo - but if I was a GM I'd be more comfortable taking them at value in the 2nd than the 1st, it would be reasonable if both dropped due to their more limited ceilings (neither guy is ever going to play X receiver in the NFL)
I actually like Bateman but more in a Gallup kind of way. I don't see the explosiveness in Bateman to really be a legit WR1 against the games best corners especially in press coverage. He could certainly develop as he does a lot pretty good but I see him has a lock 2nd rounder with borderline first round upside to a team that falls in love with him. I could see a team like the Ravens drafting him but think its a slight reach. We all want the Ravens to throw more but in reality they are built to run and the Watkins signing is an indication they may go in another direction in round 1. Lots of good Edge, DB's, and O lineman where they are drafting.

I am a huge fan of Rondale in today's spread NFL. I do think he is a legit 1st round talent because he also brings ST into play. I could see a team like the Saints snatching him up or even the Pats in round 1. His size could hurt him but in today's game most no longer care about height / weight and his electric speed and quickness will give some GM's visions of T. Hill.

While these guys are good there are also 5-8 other guys that are really close. The drop off at DB, O-Line, and Edge is a bit more significant so I see those types filling up the late first. NFL wise those types have a higher floor this draft.

It will be close no doubt.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:08 pm

Ice wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:50 pm I actually like Bateman but more in a Gallup kind of way. I don't see the explosiveness in Bateman to really be a legit WR1 against the games best corners especially in press coverage. He could certainly develop as he does a lot pretty good but I see him has a lock 2nd rounder with borderline first round upside to a team that falls in love with him. I could see a team like the Ravens drafting him but think its a slight reach. We all want the Ravens to throw more but in reality they are built to run and the Watkins signing is an indication they may go in another direction in round 1. Lots of good Edge, DB's, and O lineman where they are drafting.
I don't disagree with anything you're saying necessarily... but I did just want to say, I don't think signing Sammy Watkins should preclude any team in the league from doing further things at WR. :lol: He's a freakin' joke.

I like Gallup a lot, so I don't see that as an indictment. It's not about the Ravens "throwing more" for me - it's that they are legitimately broke at the position. They completely struck out in FA, WR's were actively choosing "not Lamar" with their contracts even with the money being above-or-equal. If the same things happens this season and the passing game misfires, then that narrative won't change next offseason. They need more talent, and they need a guy on the outside that can win contested balls and be physical. To my mind, there are only two in this draft that truly will fit this bill for a Ravens X receiver - and they'll need to aggressively go after them if they want them. Their management is already on the record about it, even... which I thought was a dumb move, but it did confirm my suspicions, so oh well...
Ravens director of player personnel Joe Horitz on Monday named LSU's Terrace Marshall and Minnesota's Rashod Bateman as two wideouts the team might prioritize in the draft. "Both talented guys who have some versatility. A little different in what they do best, but certainly two guys who we have our eye on," Horitz said.
I've written plenty about it before - but marrying Hollywood Brown - a tiny receiver with a tiny wingspan, who requires perfect ball placement to be effective - to Lamar, who is not a -bad- passer but is certainly not a "throw a laser beam on a rope 50 yards and hit it perfectly" kind of QB - has been shown now as the questionable move that it was. It's been little surprise that Lamar's best weapon in the pass game has been Andrews - a contested catch monster who works the middle of the field (Lamar's most accurate area by far; he is actually above average here).

Getting a solid guy on the outside would do wonders for taking the pressure off of Andrews and Hollywood imo, and would mean less doubling for both guys. (Andrews spent the majority of 2020 being doubled on passing downs) Outside of both players, there is no-one else that scares you lining up at pass catcher for them. They need a legitimate 3rd option of the future, and it would be best if they were cost-controlled and could grow with Lamar.

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:18 pm

I think the counter argument re: Brown and Lamar is that Brown’s speed and agility would allow him to create more separation so ball placement was less of an issue.

I don’t know what the right answer is, or if there is one, but I suspect throwing a back shoulder fade to Hopkins actually requires more precise ball placement even though it seems like he can always just go up and get it.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:29 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:18 pm I think the counter argument re: Brown and Lamar is that Brown’s speed and agility would allow him to create more separation so ball placement was less of an issue.

I don’t know what the right answer is, or if there is one, but I suspect throwing a back shoulder fade to Hopkins actually requires more precise ball placement even though it seems like he can always just go up and get it.
Perhaps - but with Brown's contested catch numbers vs. Hopkins, the point is moot. Hollywood isn't battling and winning a 50/50 ball against Jalen Ramsay... like, ever...

Lamar would kill to have a receiver as good as Hopkins catching for him.

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:34 pm

mild wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:29 pm
OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:18 pm I think the counter argument re: Brown and Lamar is that Brown’s speed and agility would allow him to create more separation so ball placement was less of an issue.

I don’t know what the right answer is, or if there is one, but I suspect throwing a back shoulder fade to Hopkins actually requires more precise ball placement even though it seems like he can always just go up and get it.
Perhaps - but with Brown's contested catch numbers vs. Hopkins, the point is moot. Hollywood isn't battling and winning a 50/50 ball against Jalen Ramsay... like, ever...

Lamar would kill to have a receiver as good as Hopkins catching for him.
Right- I think that’s the point. Obviously it’s an asymmetric comparison between the best WR in the league at making contested catches and a WR who is “good” at creating separation.

The comparison should be like Hopkins vs Peak Antonio Brown- if your QB struggles with ball placement, who will help more?
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:10 pm

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:34 pm Right- I think that’s the point. Obviously it’s an asymmetric comparison between the best WR in the league at making contested catches and a WR who is “good” at creating separation.

The comparison should be like Hopkins vs Peak Antonio Brown- if your QB struggles with ball placement, who will help more?
Uhhh... Obviously the one that can reel in the catch no matter how poorly it's placed, rather than the one that has to be wide-open with no-one breathing on him? I don't think Hollywood is anyone's idea of Peak AB, despite the bloodlines... I don't see why this is a hard one to grok, my dude 8-)

If you get open in the NFL, then the QB has a split second window to pull that trigger and get the ball to you before the defense recovers. If you can throw with anticipation of him being wide open, then even better. Lamar doesn't really do that... he sees the receiver open, then he throws. That gives the defense time to recover, by it's very nature - and now you have a contested catch situation. Sometimes he doesn't like what he sees, thus he scrambles - either to re-throw, or to run. There's a reason why he has 62 passing TD's to just 15 INT's in the last 2 seasons: he is exceptionally cautious pulling the trigger - because why take chances if you can just run it for 10 yards and pick up another 4 downs?

For when they take that away, though - I believe Lamar needs more guys that can bail him out in a tight spot when the Defense goes Engage-8 ie. Tennessee in 2019. That would be guys that are theoretically "open" as soon as you hike the ball, even if a CB is jamming them. That would be a contested catcher - like Hopkins... like Bateman. :thumbup:

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby Ice » Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:44 am

The real answer is the QB needs to continue to develop as a passer and trust to throw open players. He isn't bad but the system isn't great for WR's and Lamar is really good at playing to his strengths which is no hesitation to run when his players are not open. I am certain they draft a WR jut not sure it will be in round 1.

Still think Edge and O Line make a lot of sense in round 1. No idea but I don't think the Ravens really view their WR room as a major weakness.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:23 pm

12 skill position players in the 1st - a modern NFL record (with the current rookie wage system).
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby mild » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:34 pm

mild wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:07 pm Just wanted to add, that the "will 5 WR's be taken in the 1st round" is a prop bet that has been gaining some steam in the last week - though it may have just been cooled off slightly with the news of Terrace Marshall popping for medicals.

...

Pretty easy to see Bateman going in the 20's somewhere, and then it's down to your pick of the Moore's, Marshall, and perhaps even Toney. I really think we could see 5 WR's go in the 1st.
Ice wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:25 pm I would bet the under that 5 WR's go in round 1. I do think 6 offensive linemen and 6 DB's will go in round 1...
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Horses, Water, Can't make 'em drink, Death, Taxes, Ice being wrong about WR's... we are PLAYING THE HITS this year :lol:

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:35 pm

13 now wow. Wonder if there is going to be 1 more??
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby CGW » Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:33 am

Looks like a pretty standard class from a skill position stand point, with the exception of the QB position. It's a great class for superflex leagues.

5QB
2RB
5WR
1TE

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:43 am

Today is probably going to be the day that helps to confirm or refute the theory that the 2021 class has plenty of depth as well as top end talent at all positions.

Since 2011 - when the rookie wage scale began - 2021 has now set the record for most skill position picks in 1 draft at 13.

If you're saying wait a min all those QBs artificially inflated the value - lets take them out (of all draft classes)

8 - 2021
7
5
6
8 - 2017
5
8 - 2015
6
4
7
4

So excluding QB, 2021 still ties 2017 & 2015 for most skill position selections.

However like I mentioned, the number we want for volume is a combined Day 1 & Day 2, as well as obviously an overall for entire draft.

The most skill position players taken in any 1 draft total? 82 in 2017 (2020 had 78)
The most skill position players taken in Day 1/2 combined? 36 in 2014 & 2020.

Ideally I am hoping for between 30-36 total after Round III is complete, and between 78-82 overall after the end of the draft. None of the "good" classes had less than 29 or 77 in those columns.

For anyone interested, I have a database built that shows the # at each position in each round in every year since 2011. For example want to know the most QBs taken in any 1 draft? That would be 2016 with 16 total, although only 6 were Day 1/2.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:01 pm

Well after Day 2 we have 32 skill position players selected - so right in that 30-36 range ... would have preferred closer to 36 as 2-3 bigger names did not go ... but that is the NFL for you.

2021 WR is right on pace with 2020 WR at 15 each whereas RB is obviously lagging behind. However R4/5 is not as bad a concern, at least for 1-2 year usage for RBs as seen by guys like Ajayi, Gaskin, Aaron Jones have shown in recent years. TE/QB both have strong possibilities which is good for Superflex and premium formats.
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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby spotxc » Sat May 01, 2021 6:12 am

Any view on how these landing spots affect your projected views

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Re: Why the 2021 Rookie Class Might Be The Most Valuable in Recent Dynasty History

Postby ArrylT » Sat May 01, 2021 5:10 pm

spotxc wrote: Sat May 01, 2021 6:12 am Any view on how these landing spots affect your projected views
If you're asking if it changes the projections I shared early on based on the quality and depth of talent (imo)? No.

If you're asking if it changes how the I feel about the viability of each projection, then yes.

Honestly it is very important to try to avoid giving into bias. As such I have to admit I am disappointed, in terms of volume, of the Day 3 totals. Part of my expectation was that there was going to be a large volume on Day III that put it in the 78-82 range and possibly over.

Instead Day III, in terms of volume was not as expected. The final draft total comes to 75. So about 7-10 less than optimal goal.

However there remains room for optimism

1 - The # of WR drafted in 2021 is the highest in the past 11 years (2011-2021)

2 - Many of those early Day III landing spots look quite promising at first glance, so if more than 1 or 2 break favorably then that will call for a re-adjustment.

3 - We'll see how UDFA plays out. Last year a RB 1 came out of UDFA, and 2019 has had 2 WRs with some UDFA value (Preston Williams & Jakobi Meyers). But anything more than 1-2 is unlikely to be probable.

So I have not given up hope that the full potential of this class will be reached, but I think the current trajectory is currently more middle of the road projection than originally hoped for. I think before I would say I had an optimistic 40-50% belief it could become the most dominant class in recent history, now that is more like a 15-20%.

Nonetheless I remain highly confident that it will at least be similar/comparable in terms of overall value like 2014/17 have been and 2020 could be. But that is what the yearly reviews will determine (and check my next post).
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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