Why the 2021 Rookie Class might be the most valuable in Recent Dynasty History

[Sriracha]

Oh rest assured I will not put the chances of him succeeding at 0%. I'm open to changing my mind if we hear good reports about his development and hope he can overcome some of the flaws to which concern me. So absolutely, while I am doubtful, I remain willing to monitor from the sidelines. As an owner I've slowly become more open to adjusting my initial stance on players as the years progress. So if Mond does something, I'll do my best to not ignore it or shut the door completely.

In the end, Kirk Cousins has a big impact on my decision not to bother drafting him this year. If he had say landed on Philadelphia or Miami where there was some concern about the QB1 remaining healthy ... But in 1 QB leagues I see no need to stash him (even in deep leagues with taxis) and in SF/2 QB leagues I'll be comfortable waiting to see - his cost in those leagues was already a mid/late 2nd to mid 3rd then he'd need to do a fair amount to have his cost of acquisition skyrocket.

Either way appreciate you sharing your perspective! You make a solid point that perhaps his success on some pinpoint accuracy throws at times could hopefully lead to improved consistency re: his accuracy overall.

I personally think it's more likely that he gets a chance to start than Kyle Trask. Tom Brady doesn't miss games often, and there's no way they're going to bench the GOAT before he's ready to hang up the cleats. Kirk's contract on the other hand is up in 2 years and signs point to MIN looking to make a change from him if possible (reports of them looking to move up for Fields, for instance); So in the event that Mond shows the improvements necessary the path to a starting job is there.

Davis Mills is going to have the best chance to start early, but the situation there is so bad that I'm hesitant to project him to have success with that chance.. and the resulting early pick would likely be used on another QB in 2022.

In the end I don't project any of these QBs to be long term starters at this point but I'd rather take the chance on Mond's rushing upside than Trask and Mills, personally. All of them are lotto picks, though so I'd understand if you'd rather take your shots elsewhere.. I know we disagree on the depth of this class, but imo all of the players in that range are unlikely to become fantasy contributors which makes Mond an easy selection in that range given his asymmetrical upside (compared to the other players going in that range).

[ArrylT]

If Mond is Rob Johnson or Osweiller wouldn’t he be a must draft at his cost?

That’s a starting QB in the 3rd rd.

Yes both became starters briefly starting in Year 4 of their careers but neither started more than 1 game in the 1st 3 years.

[Orenthal Shames]

Man, I just don't see it. I want no part of this class at cost, aside from maybe Zac Wilson, outside our 1st round (top 16).

[Pullo Vision]

Take Adam Thielen for example - It has been 2 years since he had a WR1 target share, is on the wrong side of 30, was a late breakout (data shows late breakout WRs/RBs are more prone to falling off cliff sooner than early/mid breakout players), and has stiff competition from Justin Jefferson from a QB who could be gone in a year.

I'm making my way through this thread and this statement stuck out. You have any references/articles regarding this point? I'm presuming this is *NFL* breakout, but I'm curious how it accounts for players getting snaps/targets but have limited production due to scheme or teammates. Examples could be Slayton now, or a something like a Hopkins-level talent stuck with Brock Osweiler. Is this "cliff" due to injury or reduced opportunity (snaps/targets/touches)?

[ArrylT]

Take Adam Thielen for example - It has been 2 years since he had a WR1 target share, is on the wrong side of 30, was a late breakout (data shows late breakout WRs/RBs are more prone to falling off cliff sooner than early/mid breakout players), and has stiff competition from Justin Jefferson from a QB who could be gone in a year.

I'm making my way through this thread and this statement stuck out. You have any references/articles regarding this point? I'm presuming this is *NFL* breakout, but I'm curious how it accounts for players getting snaps/targets but have limited production due to scheme or teammates. Examples could be Slayton now, or a something like a Hopkins-level talent stuck with Brock Osweiler. Is this "cliff" due to injury or reduced opportunity (snaps/targets/touches)?

Sorry just saw this. No, as far as I am aware the distinction was made solely on whether the player had a productive season or not. So no context as to why not. WRs who had their first fantasy relevant season at 20 to 24 ages vs. those like Adam Thielen, Jordy Nelson, Wes Welker, Eric Decker or Doug Baldwin - who due in part to no fault of their own (ie lack of pedigree / crowded depth chart / injuries) - had it at 25 or later.

Nor was it foolproof - just that the odds were more favorable for those players to have a longer time before production ended. Maclin for example was still productive from as early as 21 but did not stop him from being done before 30.

So no it is not a 100% guarantee that Thielen cannot or will not have a WR1/2 career well into his 30s - just that most WRs who do so started earlier and had better pedigree. Which when combined with his situation makes him a dicey asset going forward at least from a market valuation perspective. Emmanuel Sanders or Julian Edelman is his likely best outcome going forward. Which I suppose makes him a buy from a contender pespective if you can do so with the right cost.

So he can be an outlier.

[Pullo Vision]

Take Adam Thielen for example - It has been 2 years since he had a WR1 target share, is on the wrong side of 30, was a late breakout (data shows late breakout WRs/RBs are more prone to falling off cliff sooner than early/mid breakout players), and has stiff competition from Justin Jefferson from a QB who could be gone in a year.

I'm making my way through this thread and this statement stuck out. You have any references/articles regarding this point? I'm presuming this is *NFL* breakout, but I'm curious how it accounts for players getting snaps/targets but have limited production due to scheme or teammates. Examples could be Slayton now, or a something like a Hopkins-level talent stuck with Brock Osweiler. Is this "cliff" due to injury or reduced opportunity (snaps/targets/touches)?

Sorry just saw this. No, as far as I am aware the distinction was made solely on whether the player had a productive season or not. So no context as to why not. WRs who had their first fantasy relevant season at 20 to 24 ages vs. those like Adam Thielen, Jordy Nelson, Wes Welker, Eric Decker or Doug Baldwin - who due in part to no fault of their own (ie lack of pedigree / crowded depth chart / injuries) - had it at 25 or later.

Nor was it foolproof - just that the odds were more favorable for those players to have a longer time before production ended. Maclin for example was still productive from as early as 21 but did not stop him from being done before 30.

So no it is not a 100% guarantee that Thielen cannot or will not have a WR1/2 career well into his 30s - just that most WRs who do so started earlier and had better pedigree. Which when combined with his situation makes him a dicey asset going forward at least from a market valuation perspective. Emmanuel Sanders or Julian Edelman is his likely best outcome going forward. Which I suppose makes him a buy from a contender pespective if you can do so with the right cost.

So he can be an outlier.

I don't want to focus so much on Thielen. I believe his game ages well and he can continue to be productive years from now, especially if he ends up with an accurate QB. I've actually traded for Sanders this offseason as a contender buy- going to pass heavy scheme, new team lost one of their top WRs from 2020.

I'm trying to focus on the general argument, not particular players.
-WRs who had their first fantasy relevant season at 20 to 24 ages vs. those who had it at 25 or later
-the odds were more favorable for those players to have a longer time before production ended
-most WRs who have a WR1/2 career well into his 30s started earlier and had better pedigree

"Fantasy relevant" is more than WR 1/2, to me, and I have sorts of questions about the second point. The third point seems to have the most researchable info.

I appreciate the reply! Maybe there is or will be an article on this.

[ArrylT]

I cannot find the original article(s) that I was using - although I am sure I will keep searching - and maybe eventually that will force me (like with TEs) do do my own deep dive into research but here is a type of article I think you wanted

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/a ... -football/

"Per my research above, if a wide receiver produces four to five WR1 seasons by age 31, they have a higher chance of producing into their mid-30s. Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins come to mind as players who could produce well beyond their peak. If a player has not produced multiple WR1 seasons at this point in their career, I would attempt to trade them away by the end of this age range."

Basically they come at it from a similar if different angle and that elite WR production (defined by them as WR1 seasons - while for me it would be WR1/2) from 32 onward is best found from WRs who had 4-5 such seasons already. The odds in general are low, but the odds for elite WRs to repeat fantasy useful seasons are pretty favorable (just masked by the volume of other WRs failing).

Obviously in order to have 4/5 potential WR1/2 seasons by Age 31 the earlier the start the better. IE Age 26 means it would have to be every year constantly to reach that barrier. I know you're not focused on Thielen specifically but I do want to note that (a) he does not qualify under their (or my) requirements and (b) this is pretty good news for a Michael Thomas - who already has 4 such seasons and while not insulated from a trade market value drop is still pretty safe from a production value drop.

[ArrylT]

With the NFL Season now half done (with an 18 week schedule) I felt it was an appropriate time to do a brief review of how the 2021 class is doing as a whole. This will be a brief statistical based review. Context will be up to each of us to put in ourselves. I will be, in the 2022 off-season, updating how the class did as a whole in comparison to past rookie classes. But for now, in a position by position format, here is a brief review of how they have fared.

Quick note players are only mentioned if they were on the field. Ergo why Travis Etienne is not going to appear.

[ArrylT]

First up the Quarterbacks

7 Rookie QBs have earned fantasy points - but one will be ignored as it was only in extremely limited action - Felipe Franks. Other QBs who have not gotten on the field - like Trask & Mond - will not appear. Players will be listed in order of draft pedigree.

Scoring format is typical 12 team 1QB Ppr format (4TD/1 INT) - if requested I can provide either 6/2 or 6/4 format results as well.

Combined:
# of QB1 Weeks - 6
# of QB2 Weeks - 14
# of QB3 Weeks - 23

Trevor Lawrence:
8 games appeared
1 QB1 Week
4 QB2 Weeks
3 QB3 Weeks

Zach Wilson
6 games appeared
0 QB1 Weeks
2 QB2 Weeks
4 QB3 Weeks

Trey Lance
4 games appeared
0 QB1 Weeks
2 QB2 Weeks
2 QB3 Weeks

Justin Fields
9 games appeared
2 QB1 Weeks
1 QB2 Weeks
6 QB3 Weeks

Mac Jones
9 games appeared
1 QB1 Week
5 QB2 Weeks
3 QB3 Weeks

Davis Mills
7 games appeared
2 QB1 Weeks
0 QB2 Weeks
5 QB3 Weeks

[ArrylT]

Next up the Tight Ends

6 Rookie Tight Ends have earned enough production to be considered. A couple of others have received very limited targets/receptions but not enough to qualify for the purpose of this review. In order to be considered the player had to finish top 36 in a given week. So some TEs may be listed as X # of appearances, but could have actually played in more games. But no need for context since most owners are aware a lot of tight ends get playing time for their blocking.

As with QB they are listed in order of draft pedigree. I may have possibly missed a UDFA TE so if you think a 2021 Rookie UDFA TE deserves mention please speak up.

Scoring is typical 12 team ppr - if requested I can provide TE premium either 1.5 or 2 ppr

Combined:
# of TE1 Weeks - 9
# of TE2 Weeks - 5
# of TE3 Weeks - 6

Kyle Pitts
8 games appeared
3 TE1 Weeks
3 TE2 Weeks
2 TE3 Weeks

Pat Freiermuth
5 games appeared
4 TE1 Weeks
1 TE2 Week
0 TE3 Weeks

Tommy Tremble
4 games appeared
1 TE1 Week
1 TE2 Weeks
2 TE3 Week

Kylen Gransen
1 game appeared
0 TE1 Weeks
0 TE2 Weeks
1 TE3 Week

Luke Farrell
1 game appeared
0 TE1 Weeks
0 TE2 Weeks
1 TE3 Week

Brevin Jordan
1 game appeared
1 TE1 Week
0 TE2 Weeks
0 TE3 Weeks

[ArrylT]

Next up the Running Backs

11 Running Backs have earned enough production to be considered. A couple of others have received very limited rushes/receptions but not enough to qualify for the purpose of this review. In order to be considered the player had to finish top 48 in a given week. So some RBs may be listed as X # of appearances, but could have actually played in more games.

As with QB & TE they are listed in order of draft pedigree. I may have possibly missed a UDFA RB so if you think a 2021 Rookie UDFA RB deserves mention please speak up. Also Felton is not listed as an RB for the purposes of this review - he will be listed in the WR section since he was drafted as a WR (converted post draft).

Scoring is typical 12 team ppr

Combined
# of RB1 Weeks - 14
# of RB2 Weeks - 15
# of RB3 Weeks - 13
# of RB4 Weeks - 10

Najee Harris
8 games appeared
7 RB1 Weeks
0 RB2 Weeks
0 RB3 Weeks
1 RB4 Week

Javonte Williams
9 games appeared
1 RB1 Week
1 RB2 Week
4 RB3 Weeks
3 RB4 Weeks

Trey Sermon
2 games appeared
0 RB1 Weeks
0 RB2 Weeks
2 RB3 Weeks
0 RB4 Weeks

Michael Carter
7 games appeared
1 RB1 Week
3 RB2 Weeks
2 RB3 Weeks
1 RB4 Weeks

Rhamondre Stevenson
2 games appeared
0 RB1 Weeks
2 RB2 Weeks
0 RB3 Weeks
0 RB4 Weeks

Chuba Hubbard
6 games appeared
0 RB1 Weeks
3 RB2 Weeks
3 RB3 Weeks
0 RB4 Weeks

Kenneth Gainwell
6 games appeared
1 RB1 Week
2 RB2 Weeks
0 RB3 Weeks
3 RB4 Weeks

Eli Mitchell
6 games appeared
2 RB1 Weeks
2 RB2 Weeks
1 RB3 Week
1 RB4 Week

Chris Evans
1 game appeared
0 RB1 Weeks
1 RB2 Week
0 RB3 Weeks
0 RB4 Weeks

Khalil Herbert
4 games appeared
2 RB1 Weeks
0 RB2 Weeks
1 RB3 Weeks
1 RB4 Week

Jemar Jefferson
1 game appeared
0 RB1 Weeks
1 RB2 Weeks
0 RB3 Weeks
0 RB4 Weeks

[ArrylT]

Finally we conclude with the Wide Receivers.

13 Wide Receivers (this includes the current RB Felton) have earned enough production to be considered. A couple of others have received very limited rushes/receptions but not enough to qualify for the purpose of this review. In order to be considered the player had to finish top 60 in a given week. So some WRs may be listed as X # of appearances, but could have actually played in more games.

As with QB, RB & TE they are listed in order of draft pedigree. I may have possibly missed a UDFA WR so if you think a 2021 Rookie UDFA WR deserves mention please speak up.

Scoring is typical 12 team ppr

Combined
# of WR1 Weeks - 8
# of WR2 Weeks - 6
# of WR3 Weeks - 13
# of WR4 Weeks - 7
# of WR5 Weeks - 12

Ja'Marr Chase
9 games appeared
3 WR1 Weeks
1 WR2 Week
3 WR3 Weeks
2 WR4 Weeks
0 WR5 Weeks

Jaylen Waddle
6 games appeared
1 WR1 Week
3 WR2 Weeks
1 WR3 Week
0 WR4 Weeks
1 WR5 Week

DeVonta Smith
5 games appeared
1 WR1 Week
2 WR2 Weeks
2 WR3 Weeks
0 WR4 Weeks
0 WR5 Weeks

Kadarius Toney
3 games appeared
1 WR1 Week
0 WR2 Weeks
1 WR3 Week
0 WR4 Weeks
1 WR5 Week

Rashod Bateman
3 games appeared
0 WR1 Weeks
0 WR2 Weeks
2 WR3 Weeks
0 WR4 Weeks
1 WR5 Week

Elijah Moore
4 games appeared
1 WR1 Week
0 WR2 Weeks
1 WR3 Week
1 WR4 Week
1 WR5 Week

Rondale Moore
4 games appeared
1 WR1 Week
0 WR2 Weeks
1 WR3 Week
0 WR4 Weeks
2 WR5 Weeks

Terrace Marshall
1 game appeared
0 WR1 Weeks
0 WR2 Weeks
0 WR3 Weeks
0 WR4 Weeks
1 WR5 Week

Josh Palmer
1 game appeared
0 WR1 Weeks
0 WR2 Weeks
0 WR3 Weeks
1 WR4 Weeks
0 WR5 Weeks

Nico Collins
3 games appeared
0 WR1 Weeks
0 WR2 Weeks
0 WR3 Weeks
1 WR4 Week
2 WR5 Weeks

Anthony Schwartz
1 game appeared
0 WR1 Weeks
0 WR2 Weeks
0 WR3 Weeks
0 WR4 Weeks
1 WR5 Week

Amon-Ra St. Brown
4 games appeared
0 WR1 Weeks
0 WR2 Weeks
2 WR3 Weeks
1 WR4 Week
1 WR5 Week

Demetric Felton
2 games appeared
0 WR1 Weeks
0 WR2 Weeks
0 WR3 Weeks
1 WR4 Week
1 WR5 Week

[mild]

With the NFL Season now half done (with an 18 week schedule) I felt it was an appropriate time to do a brief review of how the 2021 class is doing as a whole. This will be a brief statistical based review. Context will be up to each of us to put in ourselves. I will be, in the 2022 off-season, updating how the class did as a whole in comparison to past rookie classes. But for now, in a position by position format, here is a brief review of how they have fared.

Freakin' incredible work as always Arry. Greatly appreciate your efforts!

[honcho55]

My takeaways on these numbers so far,

1. Freirmuth looking that good?!
2. QBs seem like they are disappointing, but kinda aren’t?
3. Pitts chase and Najee are all who I thought they were.
4. Looking like there are several very usable RB2s from this class

[Orenthal Shames]

Props to ArryIT on this call. I was skeptical, but this class could absolutely end up giving 2014 a run for it's money.