That's my point exactly, though we seem to view it differently.alewilliam789 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 10:12 pm Here’s the point that’s being completely missed here. Even if Pitts isn’t Travis Kelce, as long as he fits into the Darren Waller tier he will still create an incredible positional advantage over most teams. On top of positional longevity with TEs, this dude is so young that even if he doesn’t hit he will still retain value just as TJ Hockenson did as a rookie because of the existing stigma that rookie TEs so rarely break out their rookie year’s. It will also be much easier for Pitts to be a highly TE4/5 as compared to WR4/5 for Chase.
To justify his fantasy draft capital, Pitts has to become either the #1 TE or #2 TE of his era, season after season. Any season he slips to #4-#5 he becomes a bust for that season.
For instance, in 2020, Kelce averaged 20.9pts/gm and Waller 17.4pts/gm. After them, there are about eight TEs between 12.2-10.4pts/gm considered the next-best group - and that group is barely above the next group of 8-10 TEs who are as interchangeable as ice cubes. To be a true hard-to-get asset for a fantasy team, a highly drafted TE needs to finish in the top2or3 every season. Anything below that and he's just part of a group that can be acquired for a lot less than 1.03-05. I don't want to have to pick a perennial top2TE to make my draft successful.
Flip that to Chase. What if, in order for Chase to be worthy at 1.03 he HAS TO BECOME no worse than WR4 his rookie season and either WR1 or WR2 for the next 7 years? With those parameters for success, I'm not making that pick either. I don't want to base my draft's success on something that statistically happens 0.005% of the time.
I can watch Pitts' game film on a neverending loop for five months straight and I won't ever conclude I can predict he'll do that. Even the top 2 TEs of today took 3-4 seasons to become close to being considered for the top tier. If Pitts becomes the #3TE from 2020, Hockenson (11 pts/gm,) Pitts becomes LoganT and Tonyan (both 11pts/gm,) or maybe Guess-sicki (10.6pts/gm).
When you say Pitts doesn't have to become Kelce/Waller, you are saying it's okay/expected for Pitts to produce like Gesicki (700tds/6Tds in only 9 games starting). As big a Dolphins fan as I am, I'm never trading my 1.03 for Gesicki. Even if we elevate Pitts to Andrews (basically 800yds/8TDs) I don't think that's enough to consider him a better choice than Chase.