Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby dustyroads » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:53 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:50 am I'm not drafting Pitts in standard leagues for all the reasons that Cameron mentioned. If you need a TE and you have the 1.05 and you're considering Pitts, why not reach out to the Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews owners? You'd get an impact TE now instead of taking a chance on the ceiling of Pitts. Or, reach out to the Hock owner and maybe get Hock+?

If I'm in a TE Premium league with the 1.05 and I need a TE, I see the allure and I might be pulling the trigger depending on landing spot. TEs are hard enough to acquire in these leagues as it is, especially the elite ones. If Pitts gets just 40 catches in his first season in the league, his value would go up immediately and he'd basically be unattainable.
I don't think owners of Kelce, Waller, Kittle are selling for 1.05 even in 1QB leagues, so while that scenario would be ideal to drafting Pitts; its not likely to occur at all. As a Waller owner I'd want 2 firsts to even have a discussion on moving him. Most trade value charts and calculators reflect this as well. The impact of having a top tight end is too valuable, and you don't see that weekly point disparity advantage at any other position.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby murphysxm » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:10 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:21 am My advice is that make sure the player you’re taking ahead of Pitts is actually somebody you think will be better.
This whole darn thread boiled down to one sentence
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby MEuRaH » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:18 am

jenkins.math wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:08 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:50 am I'm not drafting Pitts in standard leagues for all the reasons that Cameron mentioned. If you need a TE and you have the 1.05 and you're considering Pitts, why not reach out to the Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews owners? You'd get an impact TE now instead of taking a chance on the ceiling of Pitts. Or, reach out to the Hock owner and maybe get Hock+?

If I'm in a TE Premium league with the 1.05 and I need a TE, I see the allure and I might be pulling the trigger depending on landing spot. TEs are hard enough to acquire in these leagues as it is, especially the elite ones. If Pitts gets just 40 catches in his first season in the league, his value would go up immediately and he'd basically be unattainable.
Isn't the idea behind a dynasty team to always make your team more valuable? Take the best player available and trade him if you must to fill needs later. So if you think all it would take is 40 receptions from Pitts to increase his value to even higher levels, wouldn't that make sense to draft him just based on that alone?
Ice wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:47 am Getting hung up in Pitt's player designation is like not seeing the forest because all those pesky trees are in the way.

The best 2 skill position player in this draft excluding QB's come down to Pitts and Chase. The best of the best Dynasty players look at the NFL and see the transition going on then draft accordingly.

Getting stuck in the past is like what football was like prior to Red Hickey inventing the Shotgun made famous by Tom Landry a few years later. The game is changing gentlemen but by all means adapt slowly so the rest of can win more titles.

Not drafting Pitt's because of his designation is straight up ....... IMO no matter how one spins it.
Fair and valid points, and I think our difference in perception on this topic comes with how we're viewing the outcome.

If you see Pitts as a sure-fire can't miss prospect, history still suggests that you have a good 2-3 years of waiting on this kid to be successful. Would I rather spend my valuable first rounder on a TE and wait for him to produce, or would I rather spend it on a RB or WR, who might not be as talented but would almost certainly achieve at a higher level and quicker?

But history also suggests that he's more-likely to fail. The last TE that came out of college that garnered hype that was out of control was Jeremy Shockey. He was a can't miss prospect taken 14th overall. The hype on him was insane, and his preseason games only enhanced his value.

The result was pure disappointment for everyone who owned him. We kept waiting and waiting for him to explode, and he never did. The same could be said about Vernon Davis, another can't miss prospect drafted 6th overall. That touchdown he scored in his first game was ridiculous and the hype only got crazier. However most of his career seasons were pedestrian, and many of us felt like we wasted a draft pick on him.

I agree with both of what you guys said, but that's looking at the situation as if Pitts will be successful, right? That's how I read it. I'm just not as optimistic based on historical results.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby MEuRaH » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:22 am

dustyroads wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:53 amI don't think owners of Kelce, Waller, Kittle are selling for 1.05 even in 1QB leagues, so while that scenario would be ideal to drafting Pitts; its not likely to occur at all. As a Waller owner I'd want 2 firsts to even have a discussion on moving him. Most trade value charts and calculators reflect this as well. The impact of having a top tight end is too valuable, and you don't see that weekly point disparity advantage at any other position.
Good point and I wouldn't expect that either, just to reach out with it and see what transpires. I think it'll start a conversation and maybe the other owner would be interested in making something work. The early picks in this draft are getting enough buzz that anyone presented with a top pick will think twice about making something happen.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby murphysxm » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:33 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:18 am
But history also suggests that he's more-likely to fail. The last TE that came out of college that garnered hype that was out of control was Jeremy Shockey. He was a can't miss prospect taken 14th overall. The hype on him was insane, and his preseason games only enhanced his value.

The result was pure disappointment for everyone who owned him. We kept waiting and waiting for him to explode, and he never did. The same could be said about Vernon Davis, another can't miss prospect drafted 6th overall. That touchdown he scored in his first game was ridiculous and the hype only got crazier. However most of his career seasons were pedestrian, and many of us felt like we wasted a draft pick on him.
Maybe this is revisionist memory, but I felt like Shockey was an excellent TE at the time and just couldn't stay on the field because of nagging injuries. I also think NFL offenses are much different in how they use TE's now than from Shock's era. Much like Gronk, Jeremy was an assett blocking. Pitts will not be asked to do that
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Ice » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:49 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:18 am
jenkins.math wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:08 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:50 am I'm not drafting Pitts in standard leagues for all the reasons that Cameron mentioned. If you need a TE and you have the 1.05 and you're considering Pitts, why not reach out to the Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews owners? You'd get an impact TE now instead of taking a chance on the ceiling of Pitts. Or, reach out to the Hock owner and maybe get Hock+?

If I'm in a TE Premium league with the 1.05 and I need a TE, I see the allure and I might be pulling the trigger depending on landing spot. TEs are hard enough to acquire in these leagues as it is, especially the elite ones. If Pitts gets just 40 catches in his first season in the league, his value would go up immediately and he'd basically be unattainable.
Isn't the idea behind a dynasty team to always make your team more valuable? Take the best player available and trade him if you must to fill needs later. So if you think all it would take is 40 receptions from Pitts to increase his value to even higher levels, wouldn't that make sense to draft him just based on that alone?
Ice wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:47 am Getting hung up in Pitt's player designation is like not seeing the forest because all those pesky trees are in the way.

The best 2 skill position player in this draft excluding QB's come down to Pitts and Chase. The best of the best Dynasty players look at the NFL and see the transition going on then draft accordingly.

Getting stuck in the past is like what football was like prior to Red Hickey inventing the Shotgun made famous by Tom Landry a few years later. The game is changing gentlemen but by all means adapt slowly so the rest of can win more titles.

Not drafting Pitt's because of his designation is straight up ....... IMO no matter how one spins it.
Fair and valid points, and I think our difference in perception on this topic comes with how we're viewing the outcome.

If you see Pitts as a sure-fire can't miss prospect, history still suggests that you have a good 2-3 years of waiting on this kid to be successful. Would I rather spend my valuable first rounder on a TE and wait for him to produce, or would I rather spend it on a RB or WR, who might not be as talented but would almost certainly achieve at a higher level and quicker?

But history also suggests that he's more-likely to fail. The last TE that came out of college that garnered hype that was out of control was Jeremy Shockey. He was a can't miss prospect taken 14th overall. The hype on him was insane, and his preseason games only enhanced his value.

The result was pure disappointment for everyone who owned him. We kept waiting and waiting for him to explode, and he never did. The same could be said about Vernon Davis, another can't miss prospect drafted 6th overall. That touchdown he scored in his first game was ridiculous and the hype only got crazier. However most of his career seasons were pedestrian, and many of us felt like we wasted a draft pick on him.

I agree with both of what you guys said, but that's looking at the situation as if Pitts will be successful, right? That's how I read it. I'm just not as optimistic based on historical results.
Of course I see him as going to be successful. I actually think the History Argument is what is not valid.

Taking a player from a different era like Shockey in your example doesn't compute unless you do not see the game evolving. As for V. Davis the only thing he really had in common with Pitts is speed. Davis had 9 TD's and Pitts 18 TD's in 11 fewer games. Pitts presents a much larger target with 3 inches in height and a bigger wingspan I suspect.

The best two comps currently are probably Kelce and Waller based on where they actually line up. Kelce lined up last year less than 40% as a traditional TE last year.

Pitt's profiles like a big WR with an incredible wingspan and catch radius. My point is and remains that many of the arguments against Pitt's are because he is being put in TE BOX like you are doing when he will be used as a weapon in the receiving game. He will line up more outside and in the slot than he will as an in line TE.

Tell me 5 players in the NFL that will be able to cover him effectively one on one with his size, speed, routes, and hands?

I have been trying to come up with that list myself and I don't see one which is why he continues to rise up my draft board.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby MEuRaH » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:53 am

murphysxm wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:33 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:18 amBut history also suggests that he's more-likely to fail. The last TE that came out of college that garnered hype that was out of control was Jeremy Shockey. He was a can't miss prospect taken 14th overall. The hype on him was insane, and his preseason games only enhanced his value.

The result was pure disappointment for everyone who owned him. We kept waiting and waiting for him to explode, and he never did. The same could be said about Vernon Davis, another can't miss prospect drafted 6th overall. That touchdown he scored in his first game was ridiculous and the hype only got crazier. However most of his career seasons were pedestrian, and many of us felt like we wasted a draft pick on him.
Maybe this is revisionist memory, but I felt like Shockey was an excellent TE at the time and just couldn't stay on the field because of nagging injuries. I also think NFL offenses are much different in how they use TE's now than from Shock's era. Much like Gronk, Jeremy was an assett blocking. Pitts will not be asked to do that
Shockey selected at 16 overall was definitely thought of as more than just a blocking tight end. I get what you're saying because he absolutely was a great blocker and that's what he's remembered for, but the Giants drafted him that early because they expected him to be a big part of the offense, as did fantasy owners.

I forget about injuries so I had to look it up. He played 15 game seasons almost his entire time with the Giants. Did he have soft tissue problems? I can't recall, but the point of the post was that his performance didn't match the hype like has happened so many other times before and after with rookie TEs.

Pitts is indeed a different animal though. His wingspan is so good that sites had to modify their formula to include it in their evaluations! I mean, that's just ridiculous. Everything is pointing to this kid being a success, but I'm a little gun shy based on history.

I'm stoked I don't own any draft picks where he's projected to go.... oh wait, yes I do. Oh man, I hope I don't have to make that choice. I don't know if I'm strong enough to pass on this kid haha.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby MEuRaH » Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:58 am

Ice wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:49 am Of course I see him as going to be successful. I actually think the History Argument is what is not valid.

Taking a player from a different era like Shockey in your example doesn't compute unless you do not see the game evolving. As for V. Davis the only thing he really had in common with Pitts is speed. Davis had 9 TD's and Pitts 18 TD's in 11 fewer games. Pitts presents a much larger target with 3 inches in height and a bigger wingspan I suspect.

The best two comps currently are probably Kelce and Waller based on where they actually line up. Kelce lined up last year less than 40% as a traditional TE last year.

Pitt's profiles like a big WR with an incredible wingspan and catch radius. My point is and remains that many of the arguments against Pitt's are because he is being put in TE BOX like you are doing when he will be used as a weapon in the receiving game. He will line up more outside and in the slot than he will as an in line TE.

Tell me 5 players in the NFL that will be able to cover him effectively one on one with his size, speed, routes, and hands?

I have been trying to come up with that list myself and I don't see one which is why he continues to rise up my draft board.
The purpose of comparing him to Shockey was just the hype, not anything else. I don't even think the Pitts hype is bigger than the Shockey hype yet. If we get there, whoa boy! Pitts is not at all similar to Shockey in any metric that I'm aware of other than "bad-assery".
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Avery » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:34 am

Admittedly haven't read the whole thread but just jumping in with a 10,000 ft sorta view thing here... isn't the point trying to find the outlier and the high ceiling players in the first round? Sure it would cut against the grain for Pitts to hit early and go against "historical norms", but if he does hit well, it gives your team a strong positional advantage against most teams in the league.

Especially if you feel the other positional players at that point in the draft have limited upside, isn't it a worthy swing to to take a guy with astronomical upside even if the historical odds are against you.

Sure it has high risk but the rewards are fantastic.
Team 1: Dynasty/Contract Team: 12 Team, PPR, QB,1 RB, 2WR, 2 Flex WR/RB, TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.25X receiving yards points)
QB – J. Hurts, A Richardson (R-IR))
RB – Javonte Williams, K. Walker III,J. Hill, J. Ford, K. Miller (R), J.K. Dobbins (IR), K. Hebert (IR)
WR – J. Chase, C. Lamb, K. Allen, T. Burks, DJ Chark, P. Nakua (R)
TE – D. Waller, C. Okonkwo, L. Thomas, J. Ferguson

Team 2: Dynasty Team: 12 Team, 0.5 PPR, QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex WR/RB/TE (Premium TE scoring: 1.5X receiving yards points)
QB - A. Rodgers, L. Jackson
RB - B. Hall, S. Barkley, A. Kamara, E. Mitchell, J. Mason, Z. White, K. Miller (R), T. Spears (R)
WR - T. Hill, D. Adams, C. Watson, M. Brown, R. Rice (R)
TE - D. Waller, G. Kittle, J. Ferguson

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:36 am

As you can see here in the official Kyle Pitts thread there has also been a lot of discussion on what 1st round TE expectations should be.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=210144&start=525#p1972362

I have compiled a list of every 1st round TE from 1993 - 2019.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=210144&start=525#p1972468

I will be updating that list on this thread, so as to not derail the other thread from being Kyle Pitts centric - rather than 1st round TEs and their rookie pick cost - which is what this thread is more focused on.

I hope to be able to, eventually, have the # of TE1 weeks for all 1st round pedigree TEs. However for now you'll simply have to do with the following. :)
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:53 am

List of 1st Round Pedigree TEs and whether they had TE1 and/or top 3 finishes.
Prior to 2002 I used non ppr scoring
After 2002 I used ppr scoring
Either way no TE premium bonuses
This database is a work in progress and can be made avail via DM to anyone who requests it.

1993 - Irv Smith - No

1995 - Kyle Brady - Yes
2 top 12 finishes
4th in 2000 was best

1995 - Mark Bruener - No

1996 - Rickey Dudley - Yes
4 top 12 finishes
3rd in 1997/99 was best

1997 - Tony Gonzalez - Yes
16 top 12 finishes
10 top 3 finishes

1997 - David LaFleur* - Yes
1 top 12 finish
7th in 1999 was best

2000 - Bubba Franks - Yes
3 top 12 finishes
5th in 2002 was best

2000 - Anthony Becht** - NO

2001 - Todd Heap - Yes
4 top 12 finishes
3 top 3 finishes

2002 - Jeremy Shockey - Yes
6 top 12 finishes
2 top 3 finishes

2002 - Dan Graham - Yes
2 top 12 finishes
10th in 2004 was best

2002 - Jerramy Stevens - Yes***
1 top 12 finish
9th in 2005 non-ppr

2003 - Dallas Clark - Yes
3 top 12 finishes
2 top 3 finishes

2004 - Kellen Winslow Jr - Yes
4 top 12 finishes
2nd in 2006 was best

2004 - Ben Watson - Yes
3 top 12 finishes
6th in 2015 was best

2005 - Heath Miller - Yes
4 top 12 finishes
4th in 2012 was best

2006 - Vernon Davis - Yes
4 top 12 finishes
3 top 3 finishes

2006 - Marcedes Lewis - Yes
1 top 12 finish
4th in 2010 was best

2007 - Greg Olsen - Yes
7 top 12 finishes
3rd in 2016 was best

2008 - Dustin Keller - Yes
1 top 12 finish
10th in 2011 was best

2009 - Brandon Pettigrew - Yes
2 top 12 finishes
6th in 2011 was best

2010 - Jermaine Gresham - Yes
1 top 12 finish
10th in 2012 was best

2013 - Tyler Eifert - Yes - still active
1 top 12 finish
7th in 2015 is current best

2014 - Eric Ebron - Yes - still active
2 top 12 finishes
4th in 2018 is current best

2017 - OJ Howard - No - still active

2017- Evan Engram - Yes - still active
1 top 12 finish
5th in 2017 is current best

2017 - David Njoku - Yes - still active
1 top 12 finish
9th in 2018 is current best

2018 - Hayden Hurst - Yes - still active
1 top 12 finish
9th in 2020 is current best

2019 - TJ Hockenson - Yes - still active
1 top 12 finish
4th in 2020 is current best

2019 - Noah Fant - Yes
1 top 12 finish
11th in 2020 is current best

* - Originally LaFleur was a no - but Pro-Ref has him with a 7th place non ppr finish
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... FlDa00.htm

** - Originally Becht was a maybe - but Pro-Ref does not have him with a top 12 in non-ppr and I do not have accurate ppr prior to 2002 but doesnt look like he had one
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... chAn00.htm

*** - Originally Stevens was a maybe - but Pro-Ref has him with a top 12 in non-ppr even if he just misses out in ppr
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... evJe00.htm
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:30 am

I have now compiled - for their career - from 2002 onwards - the # of top 12 Weeks each 1st round pedigreed TE has had

This is a raw stat and does not include the actual # of weeks they played.

David LaFleur & Irv Smith did not make the list by virtue of career ending prior to 2002

This list will include 3 things
# of seasons played from 2002 forward
# of weeks they finished as a top 12 TE (weeks 1-16)
Percentage of weeks per season average (# seasons % 16)
As such that is not a percentage of weeks they PLAYED but percentage of weeks PLAYED/INACTIVE/INJURED
However someone like Tony Gonzalez missed like 1-2 games during that period.

Kyle Brady
6 seasons
15 weeks
15.6%

Mark Bruener
7 seasons
4 weeks
3.6%

Rickey Dudley
3 seasons
4 weeks
8.33%.

Tony Gonzalez
12 seasons
114 weeks
59%

Bubba Franks
7 seasons
22 weeks
19.6%

Anthony Becht
9 seasons
12 weeks
8.33%

Todd Heap
11 seasons
56 weeks
31.8%

Jeremy Shockey
10 seasons
62 weeks
38.8%

Dan Graham
11 seasons
25 weeks
14.2%

Jerramy Stevens
9 seasons
28 weeks
19.4%

Dallas Clark
11 seasons
58 weeks
33%

Kellen Winslow Jr
10 seasons
43 weeks
26.9%

Ben Watson
16 seasons
46 weeks
18%

Heath Miller
11 seasons
55 weeks
31.3%

Vernon Davis
14 seasons
73 weeks
32.6%

Marcedes Lewis
15 seasons'
31 weeks
12.9%

Greg Olsen
14 seasons
72 weeks
32.1%

Dustin Keller
5 seasons
25 weeks
31.3%

Brandon Pettigrew
7 seasons
22 weeks
19.6%

Jermaine Gresham
9 seasons
30 weeks
20.8%

Tyler Eifert
8 seasons
24 weeks
18.8%

Eric Ebron
7 seasons
40 weeks
35.7%

OJ Howard
4 seasons
15 weeks
23.4%

Evan Engram
4 seasons
20 weeks
31.2%

David Njoku
4 seasons
13 weeks
20.3%

Hayden Hurst
3 seasons
8 weeks
16.7%

TJ Hockenson
2 seasons
9 weeks
28.1%

Noah Fant
2 seasons
6 weeks
18.8%

----

For a comparison here is Gronk, Graham & Kelce

Gronkowski
11 seasons
84 weeks
47.8%

Kelce
8 seasons
73 weeks
57%

Graham
11 seasons
85 weeks
48.3%

So you can see exactly how much of an outlier Kelce & Gonzalez were before them, with Elite TEs topping out at 60% chance of a TE1 week.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:42 am

I have now compiled - for their career - from 2002 onwards - the # of top 5 Weeks each 1st round pedigreed TE has had

This is a raw stat and does not include the actual # of weeks they played.

David LaFleur & Irv Smith did not make the list by virtue of career ending prior to 2002, Mark Bruener simply never had one. :lol:

Why top 5 - ask FBG. But regardless here is the list of top 5 weeks each 1st round TE had along with the # of seasons post 2002 they played in. Didnt feel like calculating the percentage of top 5 performances. Ranked them from most to least.

Tony Gonzalez
12 seasons
66 top 5 weekly finishes

Vernon Davis
14 seasons
36 top 5 weekly finishes

Greg Olsen
14 seasons
36 top 5 weekly finishes

Dallas Clark
11 seasons
31 top 5 weekly finishes

Todd Heap
11 seasons
28 top 5 weekly finishes

Jeremy Shockey
10 seasons
27 top 5 weekly finishes

Heath Miller
11 seasons
26 top 5 weekly finishes

Kellen Winslow Jr
10 seasons
20 top 5 weekly finishes

Ben Watson
16 seasons
18 top 5 weekly finishes

Eric Ebron
7 seasons
17 top 5 weekly finishes

Marcedes Lewis
15 seasons
13 top 5 weekly finishes

Jerramy Stevens
9 seasons
12 top 5 weekly finishes

Dustin Keller
5 seasons
12 top 5 weekly finishes

Evan Engram
4 seasons
12 top 5 weekly finishes

Dan Graham
11 seasons
11 top 5 weekly finishes

Bubba Franks
7 seasons
10 top 5 weekly finishes

OJ Howard
4 seasons
10 top 5 weekly finishes

Jermaine Gresham
9 seasons
9 top 5 weekly finishes

Tyler Eifert
8 seasons
8 top 5 weekly finishes

Anthony Becht
9 seasons
6 top 5 weekly finishes

Brandon Pettigrew
7 seasons
6 top 5 weekly finishes

Kyle Brady
6 seasons
5 top 5 weekly finishes

TJ Hockenson
2 seasons
5 top 5 weekly finishes

David Njoku
4 seasons
4 top 5 weekly finishes

Noah Fant
2 seasons
4 top 5 weekly finishes

Rickey Dudley
3 seasons
3 top 5 weekly finishes

Hayden Hurst
3 seasons
1 top 5 weekly finish
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Sriracha » Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:33 pm

I'm a bit confused with where you're going with this?

Are you trying to argue that draft capital is a good indicator for TE1 fantasy TEs?

I don't think anyone is disputing that higher draft capital TEs tend to have higher floors.. but what does that floor really mean? ... most people just don't care about TEs outside of elite producers because they are relatively meaningless to your win percentage.

Draft capital just hasn't been a good indicator for TE superstars for well over a decade. Maybe Hock and Fant change that, but in recent memory TE has been the least draft capital reliant fantasy producers.

I suspect it's because of the college game moving to more spread offenses giving NFL scouting departments a lot less NFL parallels to compare these prospects with.. but who knows.

DynastyKing23
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby DynastyKing23 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:18 pm

Interesting thread. I'm very tempted to take Pitts due to talent at 1.03 if he is still available. I have 1.03, 1.06, and 1.08 and can confirm with 100% certainly he'll be gone by my 1.06 pick. I'm not sure if the other players available at 3 will be that much of an upgrade over what I can get at 6 if I take Pitts at 3.
12 team PPR 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 FLEX

QB- Burrow, Murray, Stafford, G Smith
RB- CMC, Taylor, Swift, Jacobs, B Hall, Gibbs, A Jones, Najee
WR- Kupp, AJB, ARSB, K Allen, Pittman, London, Puka, Dell
TE- Kelce, Hockenson, Pitts

Picks

2024 2nd, (2)3rd, 5th
2025 1st, (2)3rd, 5th
2025 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th


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