Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:38 am

ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:44 am Rather than copy and paste everything here is a screenshot of a portion of that list

2017-2020

Where TE1-12 and 18/24 (as a comparision) aligned in ppr scoring.

Basically I treated each TE as if their designation was now WR and put them in the rank where they would have been had they scored that total.

This list once fully complete, along with the TE Round 1 & TE Round 2 databases will be available in excel format to any owner interested via DM.
This is interesting, thanks for the work and sharing! 2020 stands out where only the top 2 TEs were competitive against WRs. That 3rd TE drops hard in 2020 compared to previous years.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby murphysxm » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:11 pm

I don't want to diminsh the work/reseach ArrylT has put in, but I feel Pitts is a next level prospect and the positional history may in fact be mute. I am in, if you are not, that is fine. If I am wrong I will raise my hand
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Ice » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:28 pm

murphysxm wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:11 pm I don't want to diminsh the work/reseach ArrylT has put in, but I feel Pitts is a next level prospect and the positional history may in fact be mute. I am in, if you are not, that is fine. If I am wrong I will raise my hand
Me Too

Pitts is now my 1.1 in One QB ppr leagues and I am trying to acquire picks to get him in my leagues.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:11 pm

murphysxm wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:11 pm I don't want to diminsh the work/reseach ArrylT has put in, but I feel Pitts is a next level prospect and the positional history may in fact be mute. I am in, if you are not, that is fine. If I am wrong I will raise my hand
Well what I am trying to show is that regardless of his ceiling, Pitts is going to have a very safe floor, potentially a long career & a good 25%-35% + chance to reach top 3 production.

As previously mentioned 8 of 30 1st round TEs reached a top 3 season.

I just finished cataloguing all the top 3 finishes for TEs from 2002 to 2020.

20 went to 1st round pedigree
7 went to 2nd rd
15 went to 3rd rd
4 went to 4th rd
2 went to 5th rd
3 went to 6th rd
1 went to 7th rd
6 went to UDFA

So that is 34.5% of all top 3 seasons in the past 19 years for 1st round pedigree TE. Between all Day 1 to 3 round players, a full 72% of top 3 seasons belong to them.

So I am certainly not in any way saying he wont. However stats can be interpreted in many ways, so I would totally understand if others felt this was a negative rather than the positive that I see it as.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm

Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bronco Billy » Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:01 am

ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76
Forgive me for being late to the dance, but I don’t see how this data has any relevance to any league other than those that have TEs lumped in with WRs as a single player group. An owner should be much more concerned with how his TE can outscore opponents’ TEs than how they stack up against WRs, or RBs or QBs or Ks or any other position for that matter.

If anything, the recent surge in young WRs has reduced WR value and increased the value of top TEs, making them a more desirable asset. That’s certainly been the case in our league where WR value has dropped to lower than any of the other skill positions.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby YouMightDieTryin » Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:19 am

Does the Chilean Hooper Sammis Reyes recent pro day put a damper on Pitts impressive numbers? I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Reyes as a quick FA pickup. Signed by WFT after they released Moss. There might be something worth while here.
According to NFL Network analyst and long-time NFL football executive, Scott Pioli, Reyes ran a 4.64 in the 40 yard dash and reached 31 bench press reps while producing a 40″ vertical and 10’5″ leap in the broad jump.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bronco Billy » Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:28 am

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:19 am Does the Chilean Hooper Sammis Reyes recent pro day put a damper on Pitts impressive numbers? I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Reyes as a quick FA pickup. Signed by WFT after they released Moss. There might be something worth while here.
According to NFL Network analyst and long-time NFL football executive, Scott Pioli, Reyes ran a 4.64 in the 40 yard dash and reached 31 bench press reps while producing a 40″ vertical and 10’5″ leap in the broad jump.
:lol:

Yeah, I’m a little skeptical of a guy who has never even touched a football up until January of this year being an impact guy in the NFL. File his resume next to Marc Boerichter’s.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:11 am

YouMightDieTryin wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:19 am Does the Chilean Hooper Sammis Reyes recent pro day put a damper on Pitts impressive numbers? I'm surprised more people aren't talking about Reyes as a quick FA pickup. Signed by WFT after they released Moss. There might be something worth while here.
According to NFL Network analyst and long-time NFL football executive, Scott Pioli, Reyes ran a 4.64 in the 40 yard dash and reached 31 bench press reps while producing a 40″ vertical and 10’5″ leap in the broad jump.
He's on my radar but I'm not adding him yet. A long way to get before he takes a snap I think. I'd have to have very deep rosters for me to add him today. I do love the former basketball players at TE though.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:22 am

Bronco Billy wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:01 am
ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76
Forgive me for being late to the dance, but I don’t see how this data has any relevance to any league other than those that have TEs lumped in with WRs as a single player group. An owner should be much more concerned with how his TE can outscore opponents’ TEs than how they stack up against WRs, or RBs or QBs or Ks or any other position for that matter.

If anything, the recent surge in young WRs has reduced WR value and increased the value of top TEs, making them a more desirable asset. That’s certainly been the case in our league where WR value has dropped to lower than any of the other skill positions.
Another owner asked for it - and since it made me curious I decided to go ahead and see what the results were.

I disagree in the sense I think it can be useful either in terms of building your team in a startup, or in leagues where you have a healthy # of Flex positions. Obviously it will have less interest to owners in a more old-fashioned start 7 (qb, 2rb, 2wr, te 2 flex or qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, te 1 flex) format. But hopefully one can use this when trying to determine if you want to add a TE vs a player at a different position. I personally am always for choice - I like leagues & scoring formats that allow for more options when it comes to team design.

I also think it shows, from a slightly different perspective, the value of scarcity. So I agree with you this is further confirmation about the value of having a top TE now that it is shown over a period of 7 years that the top TE will score similarly to a WR1.

As always, it will always be league & owner dependent. I can only try to help show the stats that exist, in ways that can highlight how TEs are faring. Whether that ends up being useful to you or anyone else is for each to determine.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bronco Billy » Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:50 am

ArrylT wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:22 am
Bronco Billy wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:01 am
ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:13 pm Still slowly compiling the full list of how a top 12 TE would stack up each year vs. WR over the past 19 years.

However what I have been quickly able to do is give an average from 2014-2020. Or basically the past 7 years since the surge of WR rookie breakouts. Rounded to closest full number.

TE#1 overall will average out to WR10
#2 will average out to WR14
#3 averages to WR 20
#4 averages to WR 24
#5 averages to WR 26
#6 averages to WR 33
#7 averages to WR 38
#8 averages to WR 41
#9 averages to WR 44
#10 averages to WR 46
#11 averages to WR 48
#12 averages to WR 52
#18 averages to WR 62
#24 averages to WR 76
Forgive me for being late to the dance, but I don’t see how this data has any relevance to any league other than those that have TEs lumped in with WRs as a single player group. An owner should be much more concerned with how his TE can outscore opponents’ TEs than how they stack up against WRs, or RBs or QBs or Ks or any other position for that matter.

If anything, the recent surge in young WRs has reduced WR value and increased the value of top TEs, making them a more desirable asset. That’s certainly been the case in our league where WR value has dropped to lower than any of the other skill positions.
Another owner asked for it - and since it made me curious I decided to go ahead and see what the results were.

I disagree in the sense I think it can be useful either in terms of building your team in a startup, or in leagues where you have a healthy # of Flex positions. Obviously it will have less interest to owners in a more old-fashioned start 7 (qb, 2rb, 2wr, te 2 flex or qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, te 1 flex) format. But hopefully one can use this when trying to determine if you want to add a TE vs a player at a different position. I personally am always for choice - I like leagues & scoring formats that allow for more options when it comes to team design.

I also think it shows, from a slightly different perspective, the value of scarcity. So I agree with you this is further confirmation about the value of having a top TE now that it is shown over a period of 7 years that the top TE will score similarly to a WR1.

As always, it will always be league & owner dependent. I can only try to help show the stats that exist, in ways that can highlight how TEs are faring. Whether that ends up being useful to you or anyone else is for each to determine.
Thanks. I wasn’t sure where you were going with this.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:55 am

No problem. Thanks regardless for taking a look. If it does not end up having much use to you - I totally respect that but appreciate you taking the time to find out.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:59 am

Pullo Vision wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:38 am
ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:44 am Rather than copy and paste everything here is a screenshot of a portion of that list

2017-2020

Where TE1-12 and 18/24 (as a comparision) aligned in ppr scoring.

Basically I treated each TE as if their designation was now WR and put them in the rank where they would have been had they scored that total.

This list once fully complete, along with the TE Round 1 & TE Round 2 databases will be available in excel format to any owner interested via DM.
This is interesting, thanks for the work and sharing! 2020 stands out where only the top 2 TEs were competitive against WRs. That 3rd TE drops hard in 2020 compared to previous years.
Pullo Vision and anyone else interested - I have completed compiling all the data from 2002-2020 on how TEs stacked up to WRs, at least in terms of rank. That data is too large to place in any one message board post. :lol: So feel free to DM me if you're interested in the xcel file.

I also have all top 12 scores from TEs for every year, along with the 18th & 24th ranked TE.

Doing an average comparison over the years has shown, or at least, re-confirmed some interesting facts.

For example

The most valuable year for TE, at least in relation to WR, was 2011. All top 12 TEs ranked higher than WR 36. Points ranged from 330 to 163.

TE Scoring, as a whole, has been steadily increasing over the past 19 years.
Each rank, on average, is now scoring 25-40 more points yearly than it used to.

However there has not been an equal increase across the board in recent years.

From 2014 forward this increase has benefited the top 5 more than the group of 12 / 18 / 24 as a whole.
In fact, TES 6-24 have actually decline in point totals in recent years. Not by a huge amount, but between 3-12 points depending on the rank.

Interestingly enough the 24th ranked TE after reaching 100 points pretty steadily from 2010-2016 has now failed to reach 100 points in 4 consecutive years.

Meanwhile the top 5 TEs have continued to slowly increase.

TE 5 has gone from an average of 165 points to 195 to now 198
TE 4 has gone from 174 to 202 to 206
TE 3 has gone from 193 to 215 to 220
TE 2 has gone from 211 to 232 to 243
TE 1 apart from a bumpy 16/17 is getting ready to hit a 280 average and in fact has averaged almost 290 over the past 3 years.

Basically what I am surmising is that Gronkowskis breakout showed teams the advantage in having a TE mismatch which led to them trying to find their own Gronkowskis - which failed in part due to the limited number of players capable of having Gronk like skills. So teams stopped trying and shifted back to a slightly more traditional te usage, but still well ahead of pre-2010 - and this came in conjunction with the rookie WR breakout of 2014 and then return of the RB who could dominate 3 downs & demand receptions - like Gurley, David Johnson & Elliott then Barkley, CMC, Kamara and such.

Interestingly, Montgomery was the only RB from the 19/20 classes to reach 50 receptions these past 2 years. Many would argue he only did so with the loss of Cohen (now back & Damien Williams added).

With the age decline for guys like Gurley. Gordon & DJ - and in a couple of years time the rest of the 17-18 class if the newer classes do not take on their reception target share, that along with the development of a Hockenson/Fant and now Pitts could, apart from keeping the TE scoring increase progression for the elite TEs, may also convince teams to return to more TE targeting as a whole, thus seeing a continued increase across the board. Wahingtons interest in Sammis Reyes may be part of another 3-4 year tread. After all the past 2 SBs have seen a heavy role for TEs Kelce/Kittle (21.7% reception share) and Kelce/Gronk (34% reception share).

Or it could go back to WRs.

Or the # of skilled receivers out of the backfield could increase - like a James White / Austin Ekeler.

We'll have to wait and see. Anyways I'll refrain from spamming the thread with all the data like i mentioned, but if anyone has any questions feel free to ask. :)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby joeya2001 » Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:25 am

ArrylT wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:59 am
Pullo Vision wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:38 am
ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:44 am Rather than copy and paste everything here is a screenshot of a portion of that list

2017-2020

Where TE1-12 and 18/24 (as a comparision) aligned in ppr scoring.

Basically I treated each TE as if their designation was now WR and put them in the rank where they would have been had they scored that total.

This list once fully complete, along with the TE Round 1 & TE Round 2 databases will be available in excel format to any owner interested via DM.
This is interesting, thanks for the work and sharing! 2020 stands out where only the top 2 TEs were competitive against WRs. That 3rd TE drops hard in 2020 compared to previous years.
Pullo Vision and anyone else interested - I have completed compiling all the data from 2002-2020 on how TEs stacked up to WRs, at least in terms of rank. That data is too large to place in any one message board post. :lol: So feel free to DM me if you're interested in the xcel file.

I also have all top 12 scores from TEs for every year, along with the 18th & 24th ranked TE.

Doing an average comparison over the years has shown, or at least, re-confirmed some interesting facts.

For example

The most valuable year for TE, at least in relation to WR, was 2011. All top 12 TEs ranked higher than WR 36. Points ranged from 330 to 163.

TE Scoring, as a whole, has been steadily increasing over the past 19 years.
Each rank, on average, is now scoring 25-40 more points yearly than it used to.

However there has not been an equal increase across the board in recent years.

From 2014 forward this increase has benefited the top 5 more than the group of 12 / 18 / 24 as a whole.
In fact, TES 6-24 have actually decline in point totals in recent years. Not by a huge amount, but between 3-12 points depending on the rank.

Interestingly enough the 24th ranked TE after reaching 100 points pretty steadily from 2010-2016 has now failed to reach 100 points in 4 consecutive years.

Meanwhile the top 5 TEs have continued to slowly increase.

TE 5 has gone from an average of 165 points to 195 to now 198
TE 4 has gone from 174 to 202 to 206
TE 3 has gone from 193 to 215 to 220
TE 2 has gone from 211 to 232 to 243
TE 1 apart from a bumpy 16/17 is getting ready to hit a 280 average and in fact has averaged almost 290 over the past 3 years.

Basically what I am surmising is that Gronkowskis breakout showed teams the advantage in having a TE mismatch which led to them trying to find their own Gronkowskis - which failed in part due to the limited number of players capable of having Gronk like skills. So teams stopped trying and shifted back to a slightly more traditional te usage, but still well ahead of pre-2010 - and this came in conjunction with the rookie WR breakout of 2014 and then return of the RB who could dominate 3 downs & demand receptions - like Gurley, David Johnson & Elliott then Barkley, CMC, Kamara and such.

Interestingly, Montgomery was the only RB from the 19/20 classes to reach 50 receptions these past 2 years. Many would argue he only did so with the loss of Cohen (now back & Damien Williams added).

With the age decline for guys like Gurley. Gordon & DJ - and in a couple of years time the rest of the 17-18 class if the newer classes do not take on their reception target share, that along with the development of a Hockenson/Fant and now Pitts could, apart from keeping the TE scoring increase progression for the elite TEs, may also convince teams to return to more TE targeting as a whole, thus seeing a continued increase across the board. Wahingtons interest in Sammis Reyes may be part of another 3-4 year tread. After all the past 2 SBs have seen a heavy role for TEs Kelce/Kittle (28% target share) and Kelce/Gronk (34% target share).

Or it could go back to WRs.

Or the # of skilled receivers out of the backfield could increase - like a James White / Austin Ekeler.

We'll have to wait and see. Anyways I'll refrain from spamming the thread with all the data like i mentioned, but if anyone has any questions feel free to ask. :)
wow, not gona lie, i could have kept reading stuff like this for another hour lol.

great stuff
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs

QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

2020 3rd place Year 1
(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
Picks
2023 4 1st 5 2nd
2024 3rd
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:55 am

joeya2001 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:25 am
ArrylT wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:59 am With the age decline for guys like Gurley. Gordon & DJ - and in a couple of years time the rest of the 17-18 class if the newer classes do not take on their reception target share, that along with the development of a Hockenson/Fant and now Pitts could, apart from keeping the TE scoring increase progression for the elite TEs, may also convince teams to return to more TE targeting as a whole, thus seeing a continued increase across the board. Wahingtons interest in Sammis Reyes may be part of another 3-4 year tread. After all the past 2 SBs have seen a heavy role for TEs Kelce/Kittle (28% target share) and Kelce/Gronk (34% target share).

Or it could go back to WRs.

Or the # of skilled receivers out of the backfield could increase - like a James White / Austin Ekeler.

We'll have to wait and see. Anyways I'll refrain from spamming the thread with all the data like i mentioned, but if anyone has any questions feel free to ask. :)
wow, not gona lie, i could have kept reading stuff like this for another hour lol.

great stuff

Thanks. Glad you liked it. However I noticed an error I am going to correct. I said target share re: the TEs in SB but what I was looking at was their Reception share. And I got my stats incorrect, Sorry for the error. :oops: So I'll be correcting my post for that.

SB 44

Kelce: 6 receptions, 6 targets, 23% reception share 14.3 target%
Kittle 4 receptions, 7 targets, 20% reception share, 22.6% target share
Combined: 10 receptions, 13 targets, 21.7% reception share, 17.8% target share

SB 45

Kelce 10 Receptions, 15 targets, 38.5 reception share, 30.6% target share
Gronkowski 6 receptions, 7 targets, 28.5% reception share, 24% target share
Combined: 16 receptions, 22 targets, 34% reception share, 28% target share
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..


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