Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[ArrylT]

I'm a bit confused with where you're going with this?

Are you trying to argue that draft capital is a good indicator for TE1 fantasy TEs?

I don't think anyone is disputing that higher draft capital TEs tend to have higher floors.. but what does that floor really mean? ... most people just don't care about TEs outside of elite producers because they are relatively meaningless to your win percentage.

Draft capital just hasn't been a good indicator for TE superstars for well over a decade. Maybe Hock and Fant change that, but in recent memory TE has been the least draft capital reliant fantasy producers.

I suspect it's because of the college game moving to more spread offenses giving NFL scouting departments a lot less NFL parallels to compare these prospects with.. but who knows.

Basically that is correct.

The floor & the likelyhood of the player having actual fantasy relevance for a TE drafted in the 1st round is very safe.

Lets refer to this thread for a moment:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=157772&p=1430788&hi ... 7#p1430788

You'll see that a 1st round WR here is classified as being successful if they have 2 1000 yard seasons. That may seem like a high barrier but in actually it is a little mis-leading in the sense that you can have a WR3 with a 1000 yard season.

Mike Williams had a 1000 yard season in 2019, His fantasy rank in ppr? 39.
Desean Jackson, Odell Beckham, Vincent Jackson as well had 1000 yard seasons while being in the 24-36 WR3 range.
DJ Moore in 2020 had almost 1200 yards, but was WR 25

And the odds of a 1st round WR basically reaching 2 WR 3 seasons?

36% approximately as shown. Now that was through to 2015, while the 2016/17/19 1st Round WR classes sort of lowered that percentage while the 2018 & 20 classes have somewhat returned it.

But either way 1st round WR pedigree gives you a 36-40% hit rate for a couple of WR2-3 seasons. And that is the high end - as you go down the draft pedigree chart, the later the round the less the percentage of hits. There always going to be hits at all draft rounds, even the occasional UDFA. But the frequency of hit rate is low.

We just had what some would classify as the strongest rookie class in a long time, and possibly a WR class better than 2014.

The # of WRs that have had a successful 1000 yard season? 1.

That is 1 out of 6.

Now obviously Lamb, Jeudy, Aiyuk are all on track to reach that Year 2. But assuming it is a lock - well that is like assuming Barkley was a lock for 3 straight RB1 seasons. Unfortunately injuries & unexpected results happen.

Nothing in life is guaranteed. Upside & actually reaching their potential / ceiling - that is going to depend on health, usage, situation & other factors.

But despite that, I have just shown that the hit rate, at least from a floor perspective, guaranteeing you a TE1 season, is almost 90%

In other words owning a 1st round pedigree TE is 3x safer in terms of will they reach a benchmark of success,.

If you look closer, 8 of the 30 TEs profiled have even had a minimum of 1 top 3 season. Thats a shade over 25%. So not only is the TE going is going to likely have a very safe floor - their odds of reaching their ceiling potential is also pretty decent.

Oh and 1 other note. Again if you look closely - ALMOST all the TEs had a long career. Like the shortest was 5 years. Most hit 10 years. And several knocked on the 14-16 door.

So basically safe floor, long career, decent odds of reaching elite ceiling for at least 1 season. Hmmm probably a bad idea that we should try and hold onto 1 of these players.

I am not claiming Kyle Pitts or any previous 1st Round TE is the greatest fantasy asset out there. I am simply noting that these are, in the long term (which is what dynasty is supposed to be right?) very safe assets to own because of their pedigree.

And that is in ppr format, not te premium scoring or 2 TE start requirements.

[broncohead]

I'm a bit confused with where you're going with this?

Are you trying to argue that draft capital is a good indicator for TE1 fantasy TEs?

I don't think anyone is disputing that higher draft capital TEs tend to have higher floors.. but what does that floor really mean? ... most people just don't care about TEs outside of elite producers because they are relatively meaningless to your win percentage.

Draft capital just hasn't been a good indicator for TE superstars for well over a decade. Maybe Hock and Fant change that, but in recent memory TE has been the least draft capital reliant fantasy producers.

I suspect it's because of the college game moving to more spread offenses giving NFL scouting departments a lot less NFL parallels to compare these prospects with.. but who knows.

Basically that is correct.

The floor & the likelyhood of the player having actual fantasy relevance for a TE drafted in the 1st round is very safe.

Lets refer to this thread for a moment:

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=157772&p=1430788&hi ... 7#p1430788

You'll see that a 1st round WR here is classified as being successful if they have 2 1000 yard seasons. That may seem like a high barrier but in actually it is a little mis-leading in the sense that you can have a WR3 with a 1000 yard season.

Mike Williams had a 1000 yard season in 2019, His fantasy rank in ppr? 39.
Desean Jackson, Odell Beckham, Vincent Jackson as well had 1000 yard seasons while being in the 24-36 WR3 range.
DJ Moore in 2020 had almost 1200 yards, but was WR 25

And the odds of a 1st round WR basically reaching 2 WR 3 seasons?

36% approximately as shown. Now that was through to 2015, while the 2016/17/19 1st Round WR classes sort of lowered that percentage while the 2018 & 20 classes have somewhat returned it.

But either way 1st round WR pedigree gives you a 36-40% hit rate for a couple of WR2-3 seasons. And that is the high end - as you go down the draft pedigree chart, the later the round the less the percentage of hits. There always going to be hits at all draft rounds, even the occasional UDFA. But the frequency of hit rate is low.

We just had what some would classify as the strongest rookie class in a long time, and possibly a WR class better than 2014.

The # of WRs that have had a successful 1000 yard season? 1.

That is 1 out of 6.

Now obviously Lamb, Jeudy, Aiyuk are all on track to reach that Year 2. But assuming it is a lock - well that is like assuming Barkley was a lock for 3 straight RB1 seasons. Unfortunately injuries & unexpected results happen.

Nothing in life is guaranteed. Upside & actually reaching their potential / ceiling - that is going to depend on health, usage, situation & other factors.

But despite that, I have just shown that the hit rate, at least from a floor perspective, guaranteeing you a TE1 season, is almost 90%

In other words owning a 1st round pedigree TE is 3x safer in terms of will they reach a benchmark of success,.

If you look closer, 8 of the 30 TEs profiled have even had a minimum of 1 top 3 season. Thats a shade over 25%. So not only is the TE going is going to likely have a very safe floor - their odds of reaching their ceiling potential is also pretty decent.

Oh and 1 other note. Again if you look closely - ALMOST all the TEs had a long career. Like the shortest was 5 years. Most hit 10 years. And several knocked on the 14-16 door.

So basically safe floor, long career, decent odds of reaching elite ceiling for at least 1 season. Hmmm probably a bad idea that we should try and hold onto 1 of these players.

I am not claiming Kyle Pitts or any previous 1st Round TE is the greatest fantasy asset out there. I am simply noting that these are, in the long term (which is what dynasty is supposed to be right?) very safe assets to own because of their pedigree.

And that is in ppr format, not te premium scoring or 2 TE start requirements.

Is it really comparing apples to apples though? Comparing TE1 vs WR1 seasons? Schultz was the TE12 (qualifying for TE1 in my league) scoring 189 while Woods a WR12 scoring 240. Marvin Jones scored 189 as well as a WR29 (so wr3).

[ArrylT]

Ok so you're saying to yourself ... well 90% hit rate on 1st round TEs - so therefore the 2nd round hit rate must be pretty good as well.

Umm yeah not so much

List of 2ND Round Pedigree TEs and whether they had TE1 and/or top 3 finishes.
2002-2020 gives us 30 names equivalent to the 1st round TEs from 1993-2019
Either way no TE premium bonuses
This database is a work in progress and can be made avail via DM to anyone who requests it.

2002 - Doug Jolley - NO
5 Seasons

2003 - Ben Joppru - NO
5 Seasons

2004 - Ben Troupe - Yes
5 Seasons
1 top 12 finish

2004 - Kris Wilson - NO
8 Seasons

2006 - Joe Klopfenstein - NO
4 Seasons

2006 - Anthony Fasano - Yes sorta
12 Seasons
Best season was 2008 where he was 8th in non-ppr but 13th in ppr

2006 - Tony Scheffler - Yes
9 Seasons
2 top 12 finishes
Best season was 11th in 2007

2007 - Zach Miller - Yes
8 Seasons
3 top 12 finishes
Best season was 10th in 2008/10

2008 - John Carlson - Yes
7 Seasons
1 top 12 finish
Best season was 7th in 2008

2008 - Fred Davis - NO
6 Seasons

2008 - Martellius Bennett - YES
10 Seasons
4 top 12 finishes
Best season was 5th in 2014

2009 - Richard Quinn - NO
4 Seasons

2010 - Rob Gronkowski - YES - still active
11 Seasons
8 top 12 finishes
4 top 3 finishes

2011 - Kyle Rudolph - YES - still active
10 Seasons
4 top 12 finishes
1 top 3 finish

2011 - Lance Kendricks - NO
9 Seasons

2012 - Coby Fleener - YES
6 Seasons
1 top 12 finish

2013 - Gavin Escobar - NO
5 Seasons

2013 - Zach Ertz - YES - still active
8 Seasons
5 top 12 finishes
2 top 3 finishes

2014 - Austin Sefarian-Jenkins - NO
5 Seasons

2014 - Jace Amaro - NO
3 Seasons

2014 - Troy Niklas - NO
4 Seasons

2015 - Maxx Williams - NO - still active
6 Seasons

2016 - Hunter Henry - YES - still active
5 Seasons
2 top 12 finishes

2017 - Gerald Everett - NO - still active
4 Seasons

2017 - Adam Shaheen - NO - still active
4 Seasons

2018 - Mike Gesicki - Yes -still active
3 Seasons
2 top 12 finishes

2018 - Dallas Goedert - Yes - still active
3 Seasons
1 top 12 finish

2019 - Irv Smith Jr - NO - still active
2 Seasons

2019 - Drew Sample - NO - still active
2 Seasons

2020 - Cole Kmet - NO - still active
2 Seasons

[Ice]

Nice post ArryIT;

When one takes a second look at how the players that profile more like Pitts scored last year it becomes less of a risk pick as these two are pass catching TE's that play in space.

Kelce would have been top 4 Wr in 2020
Waller would have been top 8 just ahead of Jefferson.

Should be interesting but I am trying to move up to a top 4 pick to get a share or two in standard ppr leagues.

[ArrylT]

So what do we get when we compare 1st Round vs. 2nd Round

20 of 21 1st Round TEs have at least 1 top 12 finish (26 of 30 going back to 1993)
86-90%

13 of 30 2nd Round TEs have at least 1 top 12 finish
43.3%

8 of 30 1st Round TEs have at least 1 top 3 finish
26.6%

3 of 30 2nd Round TEs have at least 1 top 3 finish
10%

11 of 30 1st Round TEs have at least a 10 year career
36.7%

4 of 30 2nd Round TEs have a 10 year career
13.3%

19 of 30 1st Round TEs have at least a 7 Year career
63.3%

10 of 30 2nd Round TEs have a 7 Year career
33%

----

So basically more 1st Round TEs have a 10+ year career than 2nd Round TEs have a 7 year career
The hit rate to get a TE1 season drops from 86-90% down to 43%
The hit rate to get a top 3 season drops from 26.6% to 10%
The number of top 3 seasons goes from 24 such seasons to 7

There are 8 1st Round TEs still active of which 7 have had (and Howard on a ppg basis has qualified but health has kept him from having a full season) a top 12 season. There are 12 2nd round TEs still active, of which 5 have had a TE 1 season.

And trust me the hit rates only get worse with 3rd round & lower TE draft pedigree. For example there are like 40 TEs with 3rd Round Pedigree going back to 2002 - and there are 7-9 names of consequence so we're talking 23-25% hit rate. That is just to get a TE1 season. Yes Witten, Kelce & Graham are in there but those 3 names are the bulk of the production and definitely the bulk of the top 3 seasons. So the top 3 hit rate is around 8-10%.

There are always going to be hits at all the draft rounds but rest assured the # that have a safe floor, and end up having a top 3 potential diminish.

As I mentioned in a previous post there are like 3 late/UDFA names and they are all positional converts of a sort in Waller / Gates / Sharpe and all took the same amount of time as a regular TE to break out (2-4 years). Thats out of however many late round and UDFA TEs have ever played (hundreds?).

Again this is just evidence for you to see that a Kyle Pitts, assuming drafted in the 1st, will have really strong odds at

safe floor
long career

and decent odds at reacing top 3 potential.

Your cost benefit ratio is up to you. I am not advocating Kyle Pitts at 1.01-1.04. I am not advocating trading away an elite asset at a different position to acquire Pitts. I am simply noting that if you do acquire him, the outcome for fantasy relevance is very favorable. There is going to be more risk hoping to buy him lower later on than there is in picking him up in the mid 1st range in 1 QB ppr leagues.

[murphysxm]

ArryIT, your flag is posted. Just own up if Pitts hits.

[Pullo Vision]

Nice post ArryIT;

When one takes a second look at how the players that profile more like Pitts scored last year it becomes less of a risk pick as these two are pass catching TE's that play in space.

Kelce would have been top 4 Wr in 2020
Waller would have been top 8 just ahead of Jefferson.

Should be interesting but I am trying to move up to a top 4 pick to get a share or two in standard ppr leagues.

While this is interesting, I'd think it'd have more power if comparing the top scoring TEs against the WR field across multiple seasons.

[Pullo Vision]

ArryIT, your flag is posted. Just own up if Pitts hits.

Lol, I read this as your post is flagged and I was wondering what you saw that demanded the attention of mods.

[ArrylT]

ArryIT, your flag is posted. Just own up if Pitts hits.

Lol, I read this as your post is flagged and I was wondering what you saw that demanded the attention of mods.

[ArrylT]

Nice post ArryIT;

When one takes a second look at how the players that profile more like Pitts scored last year it becomes less of a risk pick as these two are pass catching TE's that play in space.

Kelce would have been top 4 Wr in 2020
Waller would have been top 8 just ahead of Jefferson.

Should be interesting but I am trying to move up to a top 4 pick to get a share or two in standard ppr leagues.

While this is interesting, I'd think it'd have more power if comparing the top scoring TEs against the WR field across multiple seasons.

Interesting. I do plan to eventually get to having all their TE1 weeks each year listed. And I dont think it will be too much trouble to make a list over the past 18-19 years (ie from 2002 onwards) of exactly where their point production ranked them in comparison to a WR.

But at the moment all I can point out is that the current stats show how safe it is, at least in comparison to a WR with a 1st round pedigree, which in itself is pretty safeish (to me) compared to the WR hit rate as a whole.

whether or not a TE1 season as a floor is useful to an owner vs. 2 WR2/3 seasons will of course depend on their team makeup, scoring format & so on.

[ArrylT]

List of 1st Round Pedigree TEs and whether they had TE1 and/or top 3 finishes.
Prior to 2002 I used non ppr scoring
After 2002 I used ppr scoring
Either way no TE premium bonuses
This database is a work in progress and can be made avail via DM to anyone who requests it.

2017- Evan Engram - Yes - still active
1 top 12 finish
5th in 2017 is current best

Apologies but I forgot to clarify 1 other thing. I am using 17 weeks as my defacto range of stats because that is what FBG uses as their default also. If I went with Weeks 1-16, Engram technically has 2 top 12 finishes, as in 2020 he finished 12th after 16 weeks but 13th if you go by 17 weeks.

So that may have a minor impact. For my list comparing TE to WR I'll go with 17 weeks also simply to keep the same criteria. But if you notice minor discrepancies that could be a cause.

[Cameron Giles]

I'm a bit confused with where you're going with this?

Are you trying to argue that draft capital is a good indicator for TE1 fantasy TEs?

I don't think anyone is disputing that higher draft capital TEs tend to have higher floors.. but what does that floor really mean? ... most people just don't care about TEs outside of elite producers because they are relatively meaningless to your win percentage.

Draft capital just hasn't been a good indicator for TE superstars for well over a decade. Maybe Hock and Fant change that, but in recent memory TE has been the least draft capital reliant fantasy producers.

I suspect it's because of the college game moving to more spread offenses giving NFL scouting departments a lot less NFL parallels to compare these prospects with.. but who knows.

Yeah, not to demean the hard and informative work he put into these posts, but those were my immediate thoughts as well.

To me, the argument isn't that Pitts won't have TE1 seasons or that he doesn't have a solid floor as a producer; it's about how long it takes to get to the true breakout, the fact that draft pedigree has not foreshadowed recent TE superstars, and the buy low windows before the slow burn completes.

Pitts is certainly more than qualified by talent to be an absolute stud, and I think he will. It's just about the path to getting there and betting on the fact that every recent TE stud was available for lower than their rookie price before a breakout.

But again, if you have a really good team and can afford to take him as high as possible, I think you should.

[ArrylT]

Rather than copy and paste everything here is a screenshot of a portion of that list

2017-2020

Where TE1-12 and 18/24 (as a comparision) aligned in ppr scoring.

Basically I treated each TE as if their designation was now WR and put them in the rank where they would have been had they scored that total.

This list once fully complete, along with the TE Round 1 & TE Round 2 databases will be available in excel format to any owner interested via DM.

[ArrylT]

I'm a bit confused with where you're going with this?

Are you trying to argue that draft capital is a good indicator for TE1 fantasy TEs?

I don't think anyone is disputing that higher draft capital TEs tend to have higher floors.. but what does that floor really mean? ... most people just don't care about TEs outside of elite producers because they are relatively meaningless to your win percentage.

Draft capital just hasn't been a good indicator for TE superstars for well over a decade. Maybe Hock and Fant change that, but in recent memory TE has been the least draft capital reliant fantasy producers.

I suspect it's because of the college game moving to more spread offenses giving NFL scouting departments a lot less NFL parallels to compare these prospects with.. but who knows.

Yeah, not to demean the hard and informative work he put into these posts, but those were my immediate thoughts as well.

To me, the argument isn't that Pitts won't have TE1 seasons or that he doesn't have a solid floor as a producer; it's about how long it takes to get to the true breakout, the fact that draft pedigree has not foreshadowed recent TE superstars, and the buy low windows before the slow burn completes.

Pitts is certainly more than qualified by talent to be an absolute stud, and I think he will. It's just about the path to getting there and betting on the fact that every recent TE stud was available for lower than their rookie price before a breakout.

But again, if you have a really good team and can afford to take him as high as possible, I think you should.

Very much appreciate your comment and pretty much totally agree with the last portions.

[murphysxm]

ArryIT, your flag is posted. Just own up if Pitts hits.

Lol, I read this as your post is flagged and I was wondering what you saw that demanded the attention of mods.

Yeah, I don't even know how to do that........