Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

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Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby McCafsteez » Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:42 am

Can anyone please name a TE that translated instantly into the NFL? This Kyle Pitts hype is out of control. This post is merely a "flag plant" so we can all look back and remember that "I told you so". The only way Pitts should be taken in the first round is if you have the depth to let him sit and develop for a few years on your bench.

/End Rant
Last edited by McCafsteez on Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Other Woman Dynasty League - 12 Team PPR (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex)
QB: Herbert, Lance, Stafford
RB: Bijan, Hall, Cook, Chubb, Mattison
WR: Adams, Hill, Hopkins, Robinson
TE: Waller, Engram
-
You’re in this for Life - 12 Team 0.5 PPR
(QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, TE, 3 Flex)

QB: Fields, Young, Richardson, Smith
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, A. Jones
WR: Metcalf, JSN, Addison, Q. Johnston, Mingo, Rice
TE: Kincaid, Mayer, Gesicki
2024 Picks - (x3) 1sts
-
Dynasty Addiction - 12 Team PPR /SF (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Lawrence, Fields
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Etienne, Walker
WR: AJ Brown, Godwin, Bateman
TE: Kittle

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Sriracha » Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:53 am

The elite TEs tend to breakout by year 2.

The last time the NFL correctly forecasted a superstar TE? Kellen Winslow in 1979 and Tony Gonzalez in 1997.

Definitely possible that Pitts is the 3rd guy to join this list; but the hype is a bit insane right now. OJ Howard was a similarly talented TE prospect and he's largely been a disappointment.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby saw061600 » Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:17 pm

Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, many others were year 2 (although I think Kelce didn't play year 1, right?)

I think if you wait until they breakout, especially if they hit Tier 1, it's too late to buy them because you don't want to overspend and then have them bust. High risk high reward draft pick.
10 TM No PPR or waiver 85RST
Herbert Fields Garoppolo Ridder
JT Barkley Etienne Ingram Charb CEH
Evans Aiyuk Dionte Jeudy London JWill GWils EMoore JMyers Mims Moorex2
Andrews Kinkaid Pits Freiermuth
NBosa Quinnen DJJones Clark F-Myers Taylor Graham
Darius Okereke Kendricks DCampbell DJones Baker Kiser Brooks
Adams Simmons Vaccaro Joseph

12 TM .5ppr 45 RST
Herbert Stroud Mayfield
JT Achane Kamara Ford Pacheco Jaleel
AJB DK Godwin Aiyuk Kirk ZJones RMoore Thornton
Hock F-muth
LWilliams Payne Reed Greenard
Bernard Kendricks Warner Baker Williams Tranquil
Budda McKinney Clark Wilson

1-2QB 2-4RB 3-5WR 1-3TE 11OFF/DEF
Herbert Stafford Brock Dobbs
Taylor Jacobs Mattison Kyren Jaleel Ford Bigsby
AJB Diggs Evans Kirk McLaurin Dionte Boyd Renfrow JuJu
Kelce Pitts Deguara
Hutchinson Rousseau Greenard Travon Demarcus
QWilliams EJones TBernard Dean ShaqT Kyzir
Amos Bates Peppers Murray Fitz Clark

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Sriracha » Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:24 pm

saw061600 wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:17 pm Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, many others were year 2 (although I think Kelce didn't play year 1, right?)

I think if you wait until they breakout, especially if they hit Tier 1, it's too late to buy them because you don't want to overspend and then have them bust. High risk high reward draft pick.
High risk, medium reward pick.

George Kittle is still worth less than Mahomes, Murray, Allen, Kamara, Cook, JT

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:01 pm

I thought this was a dynasty site. Does anyone draft a TE with an expectation of Year 1 production worthy of being a FF starter? The longevity of the career makes the wait well worth it, and anyone using a 1st rounder on a TE understands all this and is probably pretty unlikely to sell at a discount after Year 1.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:20 pm

Evan Engram, Irv Smith and Noah Fant are recent receiving TEs with comparable skills and fantasy draft capital who haven't seem a strong value gain (if any at all) since being drafted by teams.

Not drafting Pitts- where I would take him, he won't be available.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby abloom » Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:24 pm

McCafsteez wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 11:42 am Can anyone please name a TE that translated instantly into the NLF? This Kyle Pitts hype is out of control. This post is merely a "flag plant" so we can all look back and remember that "I told you so". The only way Pitts should be taken in the first round is if you have the depth to let him sit and develop for a few years on your bench.

/End Rant
Evan Engram te 5 rookie year.

Pitts is certainly fine to draft in the first round, just not over certain other players
Last edited by abloom on Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Kyler, Fields, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens, wilson
T: Kelce, Goedert, Thomas, woods
D: cle, nyj
K: Sanders

Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson, Browning, Rudolph, Zappe
R: Swift, Walker, Dobbins, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen, Nuk, Tre tucker, C Samuel,
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE

Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson

Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0004&O=01

Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0009&O=01

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ravn88 » Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:26 pm

Im in a 2 TE prem league, where im looking into drafting him at 1.03.

But that problably be my only share if I land him
Team 1 : 1QB 2RB 3 WR 1TE 1Flex 1K 1TM 2 IR 12 Keepers

QB: Carson Wentz, P. Mahomes
RB: A. Jones, MGIII, Dobbins, L. Bell, Ingram, J Williams & Gaskin
WR: D. Hopkins, J. Jones, K. Allen, J Crowder, Humpries & Agolor
TE: E. Engram, Trey Burton, V Davis & J. Doyle

Team 2: 1QB 1 SF 3RB 5WR 2TE 2FLEX DEF 26 Keepers 2019 Champ :thumbup: 2020 third place

QB: J. Allen Wentz Watson D. Lock.
RB: Barkley Zeke CEH J. Robinson D. Freeman Penny
WR: M. Thomas Cooper Godwin Juju J. Washington Renfrow, Jeudy, R. Moore TreQuan, P. Williams
TE: Waller Engram OJH & Everett
DEF: Pats & Browns

Team 3: 1QB 1SF 2RB 2WR 1TE 1FLEX DEF K

QB: Wilson Wentz Tannehill Brees Haskins Foles
RB: CMC Zeke Miles CEH AP J. Jackson B. Scott
WR: Evans Adams Landry Metcalf E. Sanders Lazard
TE: Engram Hurts Ebron Herndon

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bot101 » Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:43 pm

If there was a class to burn a premium pick on a TE, this is the class. Im just not a fan whatsoever outside of SF leagues. Theres maybe a couple WRs that I like, none of the RBs really get my attention as well. So in this particular draft class I wouldnt roll my eyes at Pitts going mid 1st.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:53 pm

saw061600 wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:17 pm Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, many others were year 2 (although I think Kelce didn't play year 1, right?)

I think if you wait until they breakout, especially if they hit Tier 1, it's too late to buy them because you don't want to overspend and then have them bust. High risk high reward draft pick.
Ertz 2014, year 2: TE13 in 0.5 ppr (58 catches, 702 yards, 3 TDs on 89 targets)
Kelce 2014, year 2: TE17 (67 catshes, 862 yards, 5 TDs on 87 targets)
Kittle 2018, year 2: TE3 (88 catches, 1377 yards, 5 TDs on 136 targets)
Andrews 2019, year 2: TE4 (64 catches, 852 yards, 10 TDs on 64 targets)

I'd say both Kittle and Andrews broke out year 2. I consider a breakout to be a top 10 or 12 guy. Kittle was a 5th round pick, Andrews a 3rd. I think it's hard to predict a TE breakout.

From what I'm reading on Kyle Pitts, he'll be drafted high in the NFL & probably in dynasty. If you're expecting for him to be startable year 1, you're most likely going to be disappointed. If you can afford to use a first rounder on him and wait three years before starting him, great. Just set your expectations accordingly.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:12 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:53 pm Andrews 2019, year 2: TE4 (64 catches, 852 yards, 10 TDs on 64 targets)
Now THAT’S impressive.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby abloom » Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:35 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:12 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:53 pm Andrews 2019, year 2: TE4 (64 catches, 852 yards, 10 TDs on 64 targets)
Now THAT’S impressive.
98 targets
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Kyler, Fields, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens, wilson
T: Kelce, Goedert, Thomas, woods
D: cle, nyj
K: Sanders

Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson, Browning, Rudolph, Zappe
R: Swift, Walker, Dobbins, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen, Nuk, Tre tucker, C Samuel,
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE

Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson

Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0004&O=01

Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0009&O=01

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby McCafsteez » Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:24 pm

saw061600 wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:17 pm Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, many others were year 2 (although I think Kelce didn't play year 1, right?)

I think if you wait until they breakout, especially if they hit Tier 1, it's too late to buy them because you don't want to overspend and then have them bust. High risk high reward draft pick.
Yes, but they were not the highest ranked TEs in their class. Just to throw some ranks out there from random dynasty sites (mostly ESPN). Essentially anyone ranked in the first two rounds of rookie rankings were not worth drafting. Every big hitting TE (minus Ertz) could have been grabbed in the 3 round or later. No TE ranked in the top 24 (first two rounds) have not had a stud fantasy football career, except for Zach Ertz who broke out in year 3. All of the big name TEs were 30th overall or worse in their respective draft class. If this doesn't prove to all of you to NOT draft Kyle Pitts with your early first, I don't know what will. My point is that it is literally a crapshoot of who will be the next big TE.

2013
-Zach Ertz 20th
-Travis Kelce 30th

2014
-Eric Ebron 10th
-Austin Seferian-Jenkins 22nd
-Richard Rodgers 27th

2015
-Black Bell 19th
-MyCole Pruitt 28th
-Darren Waller 35th

2016
-Hunter Henry 17th
-Tyler Higbee 30th
-Austin Hooper 31st

2017
-O.J. Howard 9th
-David Njoku 10th
-Evan Engram 11th
-Gerald Everett 21st
-Adam Shaheen 40th
-Jonnu Smith 44th
-George Kittle 45th

2018
-Mike Gesicki 19th
-Hayden Hurst 27th
-Mark Andrews 28th
-Dallas Goedert 32nd
-Ian Thomas 49th
-Dalton Schultz 50th
-Chris Herndon IV 51st

2019
-T.J. Hockenson 9th
-Noah Fant 14th
- Irv Smith Jr. 24th
-Jace Sternberger 31st
-Dawson Knox 32nd

2020
-Adam Trautman 37th
The Other Woman Dynasty League - 12 Team PPR (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex)
QB: Herbert, Lance, Stafford
RB: Bijan, Hall, Cook, Chubb, Mattison
WR: Adams, Hill, Hopkins, Robinson
TE: Waller, Engram
-
You’re in this for Life - 12 Team 0.5 PPR
(QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, TE, 3 Flex)

QB: Fields, Young, Richardson, Smith
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, A. Jones
WR: Metcalf, JSN, Addison, Q. Johnston, Mingo, Rice
TE: Kincaid, Mayer, Gesicki
2024 Picks - (x3) 1sts
-
Dynasty Addiction - 12 Team PPR /SF (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Lawrence, Fields
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Etienne, Walker
WR: AJ Brown, Godwin, Bateman
TE: Kittle

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby abloom » Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:08 pm

McCafsteez wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:24 pm
saw061600 wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:17 pm Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Andrews, many others were year 2 (although I think Kelce didn't play year 1, right?)

I think if you wait until they breakout, especially if they hit Tier 1, it's too late to buy them because you don't want to overspend and then have them bust. High risk high reward draft pick.
Yes, but they were not the highest ranked TEs in their class. Just to throw some ranks out there from random dynasty sites (mostly ESPN). Essentially anyone ranked in the first two rounds of rookie rankings were not worth drafting. Every big hitting TE (minus Ertz) could have been grabbed in the 3 round or later. No TE ranked in the top 24 (first two rounds) have not had a stud fantasy football career, except for Zach Ertz who broke out in year 3. All of the big name TEs were 30th overall or worse in their respective draft class. If this doesn't prove to all of you to NOT draft Kyle Pitts with your early first, I don't know what will. My point is that it is literally a crapshoot of who will be the next big TE.

2013
-Zach Ertz 20th
-Travis Kelce 30th

2014
-Eric Ebron 10th
-Austin Seferian-Jenkins 22nd
-Richard Rodgers 27th

2015
-Black Bell 19th
-MyCole Pruitt 28th
-Darren Waller 35th

2016
-Hunter Henry 17th
-Tyler Higbee 30th
-Austin Hooper 31st

2017
-O.J. Howard 9th
-David Njoku 10th
-Evan Engram 11th
-Gerald Everett 21st
-Adam Shaheen 40th
-Jonnu Smith 44th
-George Kittle 45th

2018
-Mike Gesicki 19th
-Hayden Hurst 27th
-Mark Andrews 28th
-Dallas Goedert 32nd
-Ian Thomas 49th
-Dalton Schultz 50th
-Chris Herndon IV 51st

2019
-T.J. Hockenson 9th
-Noah Fant 14th
- Irv Smith Jr. 24th
-Jace Sternberger 31st
-Dawson Knox 32nd

2020
-Adam Trautman 37th
out of curiosity, what happens if you look at the same years, and look at wrs the same way? I feel like the first year production in WRs is relatively new. RBs (and QBs in SF) are the first round picks most likely to contribute year 1, then its WR and finally TE. Though its important to note that not all TEs are create equal.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Kyler, Fields, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens, wilson
T: Kelce, Goedert, Thomas, woods
D: cle, nyj
K: Sanders

Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson, Browning, Rudolph, Zappe
R: Swift, Walker, Dobbins, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen, Nuk, Tre tucker, C Samuel,
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE

Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson

Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0004&O=01

Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0009&O=01

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:47 am

abloom - great point about where TEs were ranked & drafted. Hard to pick the TE that'll break out. That's why I'm shy on Pitts, even with a TE needy team.
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