Postby failblazer » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:26 am
Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:16 pm
failblazer wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am
There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
Isn't that enforcing my point though that you don't need to spend high draft capital for an elite TE?
I'm not saying Pitts isn't worth it, because he's clearly one of the most talented players in this class regardless of position, but time has proven that TE doesn't always come down to who's the most talented.
I disagree heavily that you won't be able to buy low on Pitts unless his career is set in stone. Dynasty owners are not patient with TEs at all, regardless of how talented they are. If Pitts goes a few years without a big breakout, people will question him, and there will be other prospects or players who emerge that become more interesting and lower his value. It always happens that way.
I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but I'd rather play the odds and wait for a healthy buy window rather than spend an early 1st.
I don't think it necessarily reinforces that point. You may get lucky and have find a Kittle or Kelce for peanuts but the chances of that have proven slim indeed. If you want to acquire an elite TE (of which there are very few) then you will likely have to trade significantly more than the pick you invest in Pitts to get them (at least from experiences in my leagues trying to buy Kelce for example) and be investing in a much older player, although admittedly buying into more certainty.
I can only speak to my experiences in leagues I am in but I have found owners who have invested premium picks in TEs to be extremely resistant to moving them, even if they don't show early. I have tried over the years to look for those buy low windows but owners have stuck to their guns (maybe to their detriment). Every league is different I suppose but that is certainly what I have seen in mine.
Pullo Vision wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:10 pm
I'll never draft a TE high. I got Gronk in the 4th, Kittle as a FA after the league's draft, and Waller after his owner was trying to bail last offseason. I've bought TEs drafted high at great values later on, like OJ Howard and Hooper.
I'd rather use a high pick on a player who could see a rookie year value rise, rather than having to be patient and hope he returns value at some point in the next few years. That likely speaks to how I approach dynasty, and an owner who does fewer trades likely wouldn't be so focused on finding guys who see a value rise.
failblazer wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 amUnless you play in leagues with complete Tacos
I know this is a typo, but the idea that there are leagues that play with
incomplete tacos is entertaining.
To me "never" is a strong statement in dynasty. I am not saying that I am moving Heaven and Earth to get Pitts in every league I am in but I am going to acquire him (hopefully at least) in certain scenarios. On contending teams, where I am more in need of rookie picks being able to potentially provide value year one (either in terms of points of trade value), I will probably opt for positions that I am more confident in finding contributors. However, the scenario (as I have laid out I think in every Pitts thread now) where I do make a concerted effort to acquire him will be on my rebuilding rosters. When I rebuild, I do it aggressively and draft in volume over a period of a few drafts to acquire a core of young talent. In that scenario, I will take a chance on Pitts knowing that I have a lot of other picks to try and fill other, more interchangeable positions. In two years, when I am looking to contend with those teams and players like Kelce and Waller may be slowing down, Pitts could be the single biggest positional advantage in dynasty and I am willing to take the chance on that over getting Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle.
16 Team PPR (11th Year Dynasty - Former 2 Time Champion)
P. Mahomes, Z. Wilson
C. McCaffrey, N. Harris, C. Hubbard
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, D. Johnson, G. Davis, D. Mims, J. Palmer
D. Waller, C. Kmet, B. Jordan
C. Young, R. Quinn
D. Leonard, M. Milano, C. Mosely, B. Okereke, J. Davis
J. Simmons, J. Fuller
Picks - 1.01, 2.12, 3.01, 3.15, 4.14
16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 5 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, J. Fields
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Dobbins, M. Davis
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Green, T. Johnson, Dy. Brown, G. Pickens, J. Tolbert,
N. Fant, A. Okwugbunam, J. Harris
J. Elliott
D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
R. Smith, B. Okereke, L. Wilson, J. Davis, D. Tranquil, B. Asamoah
J. Simmons, W. Harris