Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:12 am

murphysxm wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:59 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:47 pm You can always get TE's for lower than their initial value before a breakout.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but the TE position is brutal to master and some bumps along the way seem likely.
I just don’t get this take. Show me one trade where you traded low on a TE before a break out.
Let's look at the top TE's in dynasty right now:

Kelce - injured his rookie year and was available for peanuts.
Kittle - could've got for a late 2nd to 3rd rounder in rookie drafts
Waller - was on waivers in a lot of leagues or available for little to nothing before his breakout
Andrews - 2nd to 3rd rounder in rookie drafts

I really can't think of a TE who entered the league worth a ton and sustained that value. Maybe Gronk?

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby failblazer » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:12 am
murphysxm wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:59 pm
Cameron Giles wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:47 pm You can always get TE's for lower than their initial value before a breakout.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but the TE position is brutal to master and some bumps along the way seem likely.
I just don’t get this take. Show me one trade where you traded low on a TE before a break out.
Let's look at the top TE's in dynasty right now:

Kelce - injured his rookie year and was available for peanuts.
Kittle - could've got for a late 2nd to 3rd rounder in rookie drafts
Waller - was on waivers in a lot of leagues or available for little to nothing before his breakout
Andrews - 2nd to 3rd rounder in rookie drafts

I really can't think of a TE who entered the league worth a ton and sustained that value. Maybe Gronk?
There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby murphysxm » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:58 am

failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am
There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
Well said
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Cameron Giles » Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:16 pm

failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am
There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
Isn't that enforcing my point though that you don't need to spend high draft capital for an elite TE?

I'm not saying Pitts isn't worth it, because he's clearly one of the most talented players in this class regardless of position, but time has proven that TE doesn't always come down to who's the most talented.

I disagree heavily that you won't be able to buy low on Pitts unless his career is set in stone. Dynasty owners are not patient with TEs at all, regardless of how talented they are. If Pitts goes a few years without a big breakout, people will question him, and there will be other prospects or players who emerge that become more interesting and lower his value. It always happens that way.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but I'd rather play the odds and wait for a healthy buy window rather than spend an early 1st.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pullo Vision » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:10 pm

I'll never draft a TE high. I got Gronk in the 4th, Kittle as a FA after the league's draft, and Waller after his owner was trying to bail last offseason. I've bought TEs drafted high at great values later on, like OJ Howard and Hooper.

I'd rather use a high pick on a player who could see a rookie year value rise, rather than having to be patient and hope he returns value at some point in the next few years. That likely speaks to how I approach dynasty, and an owner who does fewer trades likely wouldn't be so focused on finding guys who see a value rise.
failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 amUnless you play in leagues with complete Tacos
I know this is a typo, but the idea that there are leagues that play with incomplete tacos is entertaining.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby bjd5211 » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:12 pm

Pullo Vision wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:10 pm
failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 amUnless you play in leagues with complete Tacos
I know this is a typo, but the idea that there are leagues that play with incomplete tacos is entertaining.
Wasn't a typo, was a reference to the show The League.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Ice » Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:43 pm

Regardless of the haters that can't get him out of the TE Box; The smart money on this player is top 5 in standard 1 QB ppr leagues.

My opinion is it is the fool who looks at this particular as a TE when he is better than every WR in this draft with the possible exception on one.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:29 pm

Ice wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:43 pm Regardless of the haters that can't get him out of the TE Box; The smart money on this player is top 5 in standard 1 QB ppr leagues.

My opinion is it is the fool who looks at this particular as a TE when he is better than every WR in this draft with the possible exception on one.
Agreed. And I'm not saying that people SHOULD draft Pitts in the top half of the first round. But what I will say, is with the promising WR's that have entered the league in the last 3-4 seasons, there's a glut of talent at the position in the NFL. At some point, and I don't think it's far off, if not this year, it will become harder and harder for a rookie to break out early.

There simply won't be the opportunity due to equally, or more talented players at the position already on the team. No such situation exists at TE in the NFL. There's have's and have-nots. And FAR more have-nots.

Draft capital and (NFL) team construction will determine which of these rookie WR's are given a longer leash to show out. But there's plenty of teams with a lack of talent at TE, and the talented players at the position will be given every opportunity to maximize their potential. Will it happen as a rookie? Not likely with history as a guide. But if Pitts lands in a good spot, I think he has just as good a chance as any of the 2021 WR's to become a dynasty mainstay for years to come.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:44 pm

Shoreline Steamers wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:29 pm Draft capital and (NFL) team construction will determine which of these rookie WR's are given a longer leash to show out. But there's plenty of teams with a lack of talent at TE, and the talented players at the position will be given every opportunity to maximize their potential. Will it happen as a rookie? Not likely with history as a guide. But if Pitts lands in a good spot, I think he has just as good a chance as any of the 2021 WR's to become a dynasty mainstay for years to come.
Exactly.

There is a reason why 1st round QBs & TEs are in demand even after their rookie contracts, and it because there is a demand that is not met by the supply.

So Pitts will be, just like other high round TEs, very coveted after his rookie contract, and will still have plenty of opportunities to recoup cost of acquisition.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby failblazer » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:26 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:16 pm
failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
Isn't that enforcing my point though that you don't need to spend high draft capital for an elite TE?

I'm not saying Pitts isn't worth it, because he's clearly one of the most talented players in this class regardless of position, but time has proven that TE doesn't always come down to who's the most talented.

I disagree heavily that you won't be able to buy low on Pitts unless his career is set in stone. Dynasty owners are not patient with TEs at all, regardless of how talented they are. If Pitts goes a few years without a big breakout, people will question him, and there will be other prospects or players who emerge that become more interesting and lower his value. It always happens that way.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but I'd rather play the odds and wait for a healthy buy window rather than spend an early 1st.
I don't think it necessarily reinforces that point. You may get lucky and have find a Kittle or Kelce for peanuts but the chances of that have proven slim indeed. If you want to acquire an elite TE (of which there are very few) then you will likely have to trade significantly more than the pick you invest in Pitts to get them (at least from experiences in my leagues trying to buy Kelce for example) and be investing in a much older player, although admittedly buying into more certainty.

I can only speak to my experiences in leagues I am in but I have found owners who have invested premium picks in TEs to be extremely resistant to moving them, even if they don't show early. I have tried over the years to look for those buy low windows but owners have stuck to their guns (maybe to their detriment). Every league is different I suppose but that is certainly what I have seen in mine.
Pullo Vision wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:10 pm I'll never draft a TE high. I got Gronk in the 4th, Kittle as a FA after the league's draft, and Waller after his owner was trying to bail last offseason. I've bought TEs drafted high at great values later on, like OJ Howard and Hooper.

I'd rather use a high pick on a player who could see a rookie year value rise, rather than having to be patient and hope he returns value at some point in the next few years. That likely speaks to how I approach dynasty, and an owner who does fewer trades likely wouldn't be so focused on finding guys who see a value rise.
failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 amUnless you play in leagues with complete Tacos
I know this is a typo, but the idea that there are leagues that play with incomplete tacos is entertaining.
To me "never" is a strong statement in dynasty. I am not saying that I am moving Heaven and Earth to get Pitts in every league I am in but I am going to acquire him (hopefully at least) in certain scenarios. On contending teams, where I am more in need of rookie picks being able to potentially provide value year one (either in terms of points of trade value), I will probably opt for positions that I am more confident in finding contributors. However, the scenario (as I have laid out I think in every Pitts thread now) where I do make a concerted effort to acquire him will be on my rebuilding rosters. When I rebuild, I do it aggressively and draft in volume over a period of a few drafts to acquire a core of young talent. In that scenario, I will take a chance on Pitts knowing that I have a lot of other picks to try and fill other, more interchangeable positions. In two years, when I am looking to contend with those teams and players like Kelce and Waller may be slowing down, Pitts could be the single biggest positional advantage in dynasty and I am willing to take the chance on that over getting Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:52 am

failblazer wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:26 am
Pullo Vision wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:10 pm I'll never draft a TE high. I got Gronk in the 4th, Kittle as a FA after the league's draft, and Waller after his owner was trying to bail last offseason. I've bought TEs drafted high at great values later on, like OJ Howard and Hooper.

I'd rather use a high pick on a player who could see a rookie year value rise, rather than having to be patient and hope he returns value at some point in the next few years. That likely speaks to how I approach dynasty, and an owner who does fewer trades likely wouldn't be so focused on finding guys who see a value rise.
To me "never" is a strong statement in dynasty. I am not saying that I am moving Heaven and Earth to get Pitts in every league I am in but I am going to acquire him (hopefully at least) in certain scenarios. On contending teams, where I am more in need of rookie picks being able to potentially provide value year one (either in terms of points of trade value), I will probably opt for positions that I am more confident in finding contributors. However, the scenario (as I have laid out I think in every Pitts thread now) where I do make a concerted effort to acquire him will be on my rebuilding rosters. When I rebuild, I do it aggressively and draft in volume over a period of a few drafts to acquire a core of young talent. In that scenario, I will take a chance on Pitts knowing that I have a lot of other picks to try and fill other, more interchangeable positions. In two years, when I am looking to contend with those teams and players like Kelce and Waller may be slowing down, Pitts could be the single biggest positional advantage in dynasty and I am willing to take the chance on that over getting Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle.
Yes, it is a strong word, but "high" is vague. Being more specific- I won't draft one top 3, likely not top 6, maybe top 9. And I'd only do that after working hard to find alternatives, including trading back/out. I completely see the value of having an elite TE. If Pitts hits, he'd absolutely be worth it. I'd simply rather pour my draft picks into WRs and other non TEs. I don't differentiate between contending and rebuilding. Without knowing landing spots yet, I can't see myself drafting him, say, top 7 this year.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby McCafsteez » Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:14 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:16 pm
failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am
There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
Isn't that enforcing my point though that you don't need to spend high draft capital for an elite TE?

I'm not saying Pitts isn't worth it, because he's clearly one of the most talented players in this class regardless of position, but time has proven that TE doesn't always come down to who's the most talented.

I disagree heavily that you won't be able to buy low on Pitts unless his career is set in stone. Dynasty owners are not patient with TEs at all, regardless of how talented they are. If Pitts goes a few years without a big breakout, people will question him, and there will be other prospects or players who emerge that become more interesting and lower his value. It always happens that way.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but I'd rather play the odds and wait for a healthy buy window rather than spend an early 1st.
x2

This is exactly my entire point. History has proven that the TE position is difficult to predict. As of recent history, the top producing TEs are not the highly touted guys in their respective draft class (Usually ranked 30th or worse in their dynasty draft class). Why would I spend a top pick on a TE who is statistically likely to bust, when I can buy low on TE breakout candidates and give up virtually nothing. This whole debate should be over LOL.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:34 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:16 pm
failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am
There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
Isn't that enforcing my point though that you don't need to spend high draft capital for an elite TE?

I'm not saying Pitts isn't worth it, because he's clearly one of the most talented players in this class regardless of position, but time has proven that TE doesn't always come down to who's the most talented.

I disagree heavily that you won't be able to buy low on Pitts unless his career is set in stone. Dynasty owners are not patient with TEs at all, regardless of how talented they are. If Pitts goes a few years without a big breakout, people will question him, and there will be other prospects or players who emerge that become more interesting and lower his value. It always happens that way.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but I'd rather play the odds and wait for a healthy buy window rather than spend an early 1st.
I'm with Killa Cam in general on TEs. Unless Pitts goes nuts as a rookie, you'll likely be able to get him for less than 1.6 a year from now. Plenty of owners would've bailed on all the above TEs, aside from maybe Engram, for their initial draft cap after their rookie seasons and the majority after their sophmore campaigns. That said, with the huge question marks in this class, I'd still draft Pitts there. That's as much an indictment on this class as much as loving his profile though.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby jenkins.math » Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:04 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:34 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:16 pm
failblazer wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:54 am
There is, I think, a key distinction with the names you listed. None of them were in consideration to be first round rookie picks. None of them where the top prospects in their respective classes. Guys like Ebron, Howard, Njoku, Fant and Hock (who were all highly touted prospects) still commanded high prices regardless of how they did as rookies because of the investment level owners had in them and the expectation that you may have to be patient with them. I'm not a Fant guy and inherited him on a team. I still got a first for him midway through last season, a pick that is higher than where he was taken originally. Unless you play in leagues with complete Tacos then you aren't going to be able to buy Pitts for less than what an owner invested until he gets to the point guys like Njoku are at now, where it is pretty clear he isn't what we thought he'd be.
Isn't that enforcing my point though that you don't need to spend high draft capital for an elite TE?

I'm not saying Pitts isn't worth it, because he's clearly one of the most talented players in this class regardless of position, but time has proven that TE doesn't always come down to who's the most talented.

I disagree heavily that you won't be able to buy low on Pitts unless his career is set in stone. Dynasty owners are not patient with TEs at all, regardless of how talented they are. If Pitts goes a few years without a big breakout, people will question him, and there will be other prospects or players who emerge that become more interesting and lower his value. It always happens that way.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but I'd rather play the odds and wait for a healthy buy window rather than spend an early 1st.
I'm with Killa Cam in general on TEs. Unless Pitts goes nuts as a rookie, you'll likely be able to get him for less than 1.6 a year from now. Plenty of owners would've bailed on all the above TEs, aside from maybe Engram, for their initial draft cap after their rookie seasons and the majority after their sophmore campaigns. That said, with the huge question marks in this class, I'd still draft Pitts there. That's as much an indictment on this class as much as loving his profile though.
That is where I differ. I haven't had any owner sell for a loss on any of those TEs after year 1 in any league im in. Im sure it happens, but that just hasn't been my reality all. Sounds great in theory though. Now after year 2 I've seen it some, but after year 3 is where the real sell off seems to happen. But if they haven't done much by year 3, they most likely won't be a thing, so who cares.

Couple that with a 22 class that appears lackluster, I dont think you'll see a Pitts discount after year 1.

I think the better debate would be whether you could take that early/mid 1st and buy one of the big 3 instead of drafting Pitts.

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:20 pm

jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:04 am
Orenthal Shames wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:34 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:16 pm

Isn't that enforcing my point though that you don't need to spend high draft capital for an elite TE?

I'm not saying Pitts isn't worth it, because he's clearly one of the most talented players in this class regardless of position, but time has proven that TE doesn't always come down to who's the most talented.

I disagree heavily that you won't be able to buy low on Pitts unless his career is set in stone. Dynasty owners are not patient with TEs at all, regardless of how talented they are. If Pitts goes a few years without a big breakout, people will question him, and there will be other prospects or players who emerge that become more interesting and lower his value. It always happens that way.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but I'd rather play the odds and wait for a healthy buy window rather than spend an early 1st.
I'm with Killa Cam in general on TEs. Unless Pitts goes nuts as a rookie, you'll likely be able to get him for less than 1.6 a year from now. Plenty of owners would've bailed on all the above TEs, aside from maybe Engram, for their initial draft cap after their rookie seasons and the majority after their sophmore campaigns. That said, with the huge question marks in this class, I'd still draft Pitts there. That's as much an indictment on this class as much as loving his profile though.
That is where I differ. I haven't had any owner sell for a loss on any of those TEs after year 1 in any league im in. Im sure it happens, but that just hasn't been my reality all. Sounds great in theory though. Now after year 2 I've seen it some, but after year 3 is where the real sell off seems to happen. But if they haven't done much by year 3, they most likely won't be a thing, so who cares.

Couple that with a 22 class that appears lackluster, I dont think you'll see a Pitts discount after year 1.

I think the better debate would be whether you could take that early/mid 1st and buy one of the big 3 instead of drafting Pitts.
Every league is different, but I find it curious that these guys hold first round value still when they haven't shown to be any better than the plug and play types you can snag free off waivers that produce similarly annually (Thomas, Tonyan, etc.). These non-elite guys seem to shuffle around that TE4-14 area.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
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