Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[W90WBA]

I'm seriously thinking about taking him in one of my league which is 2RB, 2WR, 1TE and 2 Flex

I 've got 2 picks in the top 4 so happy to gamble one of those picks on a player like Pitts

[murphysxm]

I really think two things that the "I won't take a TE with an early pick because they will bust or take too long to develop" crowd are missing are:

1. This WR class is good enough I will get value in the mid 2nd round at this position and RB is so weak I don't expect anybody to be a plug and play fantasy starter. This is the year to take a chance at TE this high of a ceiling

2. Pitts isn't like any TE prospect we have seen. If he somehow takes time to develop, the owner that drafted him isn't giving up on him. If Pitts hts early, an owner that drafted him is not moving him for practically any price.

Predraft he is my #2 PASS CATCHER. I won't take him over Chase, but Chase is the only player in this class that has a higher ceiling. I may be wrong on being this high on Pitts, but I will kick myself for years if I take a Moore or Bateman type WR over him.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I really think two things that the "I won't take a TE with an early pick because they will bust or take too long to develop" crowd are missing are:

1. This WR class is good enough I will get value in the mid 2nd round at this position and RB is so weak I don't expect anybody to be a plug and play fantasy starter. This is the year to take a chance at TE this high of a ceiling

2. Pitts isn't like any TE prospect we have seen. If he somehow takes time to develop, the owner that drafted him isn't giving up on him. If Pitts hts early, an owner that drafted him is not moving him for practically any price.

Predraft he is my #2 PASS CATCHER. I won't take him over Chase, but Chase is the only player in this class that has a higher ceiling. I may be wrong on being this high on Pitts, but I will kick myself for years if I take a Moore or Bateman type WR over him.

Bolded Part 1: Is that a good thing? I think that's why people are so on the fence about him. It's hard to trust something you've never seen before. Those darn unicorns and sasquatches!

Bolded part 2: Agreed he's ahead of those two on "safe" factor (landing pending), but it's a coinflip currently between him and Smith that I'm not sure what way to lean. It changes every day with the wind.

[murphysxm]

I really think two things that the "I won't take a TE with an early pick because they will bust or take too long to develop" crowd are missing are:

1. This WR class is good enough I will get value in the mid 2nd round at this position and RB is so weak I don't expect anybody to be a plug and play fantasy starter. This is the year to take a chance at TE this high of a ceiling

2. Pitts isn't like any TE prospect we have seen. If he somehow takes time to develop, the owner that drafted him isn't giving up on him. If Pitts hts early, an owner that drafted him is not moving him for practically any price.

Predraft he is my #2 PASS CATCHER. I won't take him over Chase, but Chase is the only player in this class that has a higher ceiling. I may be wrong on being this high on Pitts, but I will kick myself for years if I take a Moore or Bateman type WR over him.

Bolded Part 1: Is that a good thing? I think that's why people are so on the fence about him. It's hard to trust something you've never seen before. Those darn unicorns and sasquatches!

Bolded part 2: Agreed he's ahead of those two on "safe" factor (landing pending), but it's a coinflip currently between him and Smith that I'm not sure what way to lean. It changes every day with the wind.

I guess bolded part 1 is a flexibility question. I don't see him as a unicorn, just where the position is going personified. For part two, I have Waddle ahead of Smith, so Smith decision is easy for me. I have Pitts well above any other WR.

[ArrylT]

Carpe Diem
Seize the day

I would comment firstly that it should be noted that rookie picks come every year. If you believe in Kyle Pitts being a game changer then there is nothing wrong with being bold & brave and taking him early in the 1st. Because players like Pitts do not come around every year and usually you need a top 3-4 draft pick to get a Blue Chip Asset in a rookie draft 1 QB ppr. So you're getting a potential elite asset at a scarce position outside of the zone you need to draft the same at RB/WR.

TE is a funny position but there are 2 constants imho.

1 - 1st round Pedigree TEs, like QBs, have a very safe history of constantly getting chances to produce. So as long as an owner has the patience, they are likely to be rewarded.

2 - Scarcity, opportunity & team scheme means that there are usually 2-4 TEs with good odds of a top 6 season, while the rest depending on target opportunity fall between TE 8-24. Last year for example TEs 8-23 all produced on a 8-10 ppg basis, but the names change yearly.

Pitts projected outcome, without taking landing spot into account is basically, like someone mentioned with Ebron, that you'll have a TE with constant low end TE1 seasons (Ebron out of 7 full seasons has had 3 low end TE1-high end TE2 and 1 Top 6 TE1 I believe). And that is like Worst Case Scenario (ie he goes to a team that doesnt develop him properly, he struggles with drops, has injuries & switches teams a couple of times). A guy like Engram, again not fully broken out, and has several TE1 seasons (his injury shortened 2018 was still a borderline TE1) including a strong but not elite Rookie season while only having 1 fully healthy season (2020).

Engram had a perfect storm of bad luck - No Barkley, Daniel Jones, & a very low TD Passing season (ie the Giants had 12 Passing TDs). Out of the past 3 years and of 96 total seasons (32 x 3 years) there have been a total of 3 teams that had 13 or less TD Passes and 2 of them were this year and 1 was Buffalo 2018. Give Engram 5-6 TDS instead of 1 (not implausible since he had 6 previously and averaged 3 in 2 injury shortened seasons) and he is in the top 6. Engram in 2020 was top 6 TE in targets, receptions & yardage. Simply not TDs.

And basically that is what you are looking at when you draft Pitts most likely - a worst case scenario for Pitts could be Engram 2020 or a Ebron 2017, but with a potential that 2018 Ebron is your yearly floor average for Pitts. And we know what his upside is by looking at guys like Kelce, Kittle & Gronkowski.

So just to clarify

Worst likely outcome - 2017 Ebron / 2020 Engram (borderline TE1)
middle ground floor - 2018 Ebron / 2017 Engram (top 6 TE1)
potential upside - Kittle / Kelce like seasons where they are equivalent to a low end WR1 or high end WR2 in scoring

[Cameron Giles]

I really think two things that the "I won't take a TE with an early pick because they will bust or take too long to develop" crowd are missing are:

1. This WR class is good enough I will get value in the mid 2nd round at this position and RB is so weak I don't expect anybody to be a plug and play fantasy starter. This is the year to take a chance at TE this high of a ceiling

2. Pitts isn't like any TE prospect we have seen. If he somehow takes time to develop, the owner that drafted him isn't giving up on him. If Pitts hts early, an owner that drafted him is not moving him for practically any price.

Predraft he is my #2 PASS CATCHER. I won't take him over Chase, but Chase is the only player in this class that has a higher ceiling. I may be wrong on being this high on Pitts, but I will kick myself for years if I take a Moore or Bateman type WR over him.

Heard this a million times and it never holds up. People will absolutely sell Pitts lower than his rookie value if he doesn't breakout in a few years. And that's when the sharks will smell blood.

You can always get TE's for lower than their initial value before a breakout.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but the TE position is brutal to master and some bumps along the way seem likely.

[Ice]

Just want to add that Diggs was WR3 last year at 314.0 points
Kelce would have been 4th over all WR at 313.7

Jefferson finished 8th WR at 251.9 points
Waller was just ahead of him at 252.9

The Game is changing as a precious few TE's are as athletic as the better WR's in space in today's NFL. Both Kelce and Waller had over 100 receptions last year.

[Orenthal Shames]

I'm generally in the don't draft a TE early in rookie drafts camp, but outside of the top few picks this year, why not Pitts? In a non SF/2QB league, elite TE's give the biggest weekly advantage over replacement value.

[Jigga94]

I'm generally in the don't draft a TE early in rookie drafts camp, but outside of the top few picks this year, why not Pitts? In a non SF/2QB league, elite TE's give the biggest weekly advantage over replacement value.

Says the guy displaying a team with Kelce AND Kittle in a 16 teamer lol

[Orenthal Shames]

I'm generally in the don't draft a TE early in rookie drafts camp, but outside of the top few picks this year, why not Pitts? In a non SF/2QB league, elite TE's give the biggest weekly advantage over replacement value.

Says the guy displaying a team with Kelce AND Kittle in a 16 teamer lol

I can speak from experience.

Kelce was a late round startup pick and Kittle nearly went undrafted in a 16 teamer.

[Jigga94]

I'm generally in the don't draft a TE early in rookie drafts camp, but outside of the top few picks this year, why not Pitts? In a non SF/2QB league, elite TE's give the biggest weekly advantage over replacement value.

Says the guy displaying a team with Kelce AND Kittle in a 16 teamer lol

I can speak from experience.

Kelce was a late round startup pick and Kittle nearly went undrafted in a 16 teamer.

Of course, just pulling your leg

[McCafsteez]

I really think two things that the "I won't take a TE with an early pick because they will bust or take too long to develop" crowd are missing are:

1. This WR class is good enough I will get value in the mid 2nd round at this position and RB is so weak I don't expect anybody to be a plug and play fantasy starter. This is the year to take a chance at TE this high of a ceiling

2. Pitts isn't like any TE prospect we have seen. If he somehow takes time to develop, the owner that drafted him isn't giving up on him. If Pitts hts early, an owner that drafted him is not moving him for practically any price.

Predraft he is my #2 PASS CATCHER. I won't take him over Chase, but Chase is the only player in this class that has a higher ceiling. I may be wrong on being this high on Pitts, but I will kick myself for years if I take a Moore or Bateman type WR over him.

Heard this a million times and it never holds up. People will absolutely sell Pitts lower than his rookie value if he doesn't breakout in a few years. And that's when the sharks will smell blood.

You can always get TE's for lower than their initial value before a breakout.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but the TE position is brutal to master and some bumps along the way seem likely.

X2

[Forza_Azzurri]

I really think two things that the "I won't take a TE with an early pick because they will bust or take too long to develop" crowd are missing are:

1. This WR class is good enough I will get value in the mid 2nd round at this position and RB is so weak I don't expect anybody to be a plug and play fantasy starter. This is the year to take a chance at TE this high of a ceiling

2. Pitts isn't like any TE prospect we have seen. If he somehow takes time to develop, the owner that drafted him isn't giving up on him. If Pitts hts early, an owner that drafted him is not moving him for practically any price.

Predraft he is my #2 PASS CATCHER. I won't take him over Chase, but Chase is the only player in this class that has a higher ceiling. I may be wrong on being this high on Pitts, but I will kick myself for years if I take a Moore or Bateman type WR over him.

Heard this a million times and it never holds up. People will absolutely sell Pitts lower than his rookie value if he doesn't breakout in a few years. And that's when the sharks will smell blood.

You can always get TE's for lower than their initial value before a breakout.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but the TE position is brutal to master and some bumps along the way seem likely.

This is nonsense ... Engram was not used as a traditional TE and flourished early in his career ... Pitts is a "million times" more talented than Engram, so if he goes to a good situation (ATL, CIN, MIA) he'll be worth the investment right away ... if he goes to DET ... well .. that would suck.

[murphysxm]

You can always get TE's for lower than their initial value before a breakout.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but the TE position is brutal to master and some bumps along the way seem likely.

I just don’t get this take. Show me one trade where you traded low on a TE before a break out.

[honcho55]

You can always get TE's for lower than their initial value before a breakout.

I think Pitts is going to be a stud, but the TE position is brutal to master and some bumps along the way seem likely.

I just don’t get this take. Show me one trade where you traded low on a TE before a break out.

Dunno that’s it’s indicative of an overall landscape here, but I bought super low on Kittle in one league. Think he was a throw in on a deal that the main player wasn’t even worth a first. Can’t recall exactly

I’ve got to admit this was an outlier too though. I’m usually one to advocate being strong at TE if you want to compete, yet I don’t tend to end up drafting them. But,I will shell out to get em via trade. Paid up to get kelce in sig league.