Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Shoreline Steamers » Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:12 pm

This will be a fun thread to revisit in a couple of years.

Some people will come down on the right side of history and others' takes won't age as well. I have no idea which side will look better, but personally I've got Pitts as a Top-5 talent in this class regardless of position and will be drafting him accordingly (if he's available). Maybe that makes me stupid, but as I say, guess it will be a few years before we have our answer.

Until then, this is all conjecture. Both positive and negative.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:37 pm

I'm a gambler. If I like where Pitts lands, I'll take him early.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:51 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:37 pm I'm a gambler. If I like where Pitts lands, I'll take him early.
Can you define early? Is he in the tier 1 with Chase/Harris for you, along with one/both of Etienne/Javonte?
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:59 am

Orenthal Shames wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:20 pm
jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:04 am
Orenthal Shames wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:34 am

I'm with Killa Cam in general on TEs. Unless Pitts goes nuts as a rookie, you'll likely be able to get him for less than 1.6 a year from now. Plenty of owners would've bailed on all the above TEs, aside from maybe Engram, for their initial draft cap after their rookie seasons and the majority after their sophmore campaigns. That said, with the huge question marks in this class, I'd still draft Pitts there. That's as much an indictment on this class as much as loving his profile though.
That is where I differ. I haven't had any owner sell for a loss on any of those TEs after year 1 in any league im in. Im sure it happens, but that just hasn't been my reality all. Sounds great in theory though. Now after year 2 I've seen it some, but after year 3 is where the real sell off seems to happen. But if they haven't done much by year 3, they most likely won't be a thing, so who cares.

Couple that with a 22 class that appears lackluster, I dont think you'll see a Pitts discount after year 1.

I think the better debate would be whether you could take that early/mid 1st and buy one of the big 3 instead of drafting Pitts.
Every league is different, but I find it curious that these guys hold first round value still when they haven't shown to be any better than the plug and play types you can snag free off waivers that produce similarly annually (Thomas, Tonyan, etc.). These non-elite guys seem to shuffle around that TE4-14 area.
Sure, but I think youre ignoring both parties involved. If I took Hock/Fant in the late first area, why would I trade them for a mid 2nd or worse? I still have to start a TE, so am I getting mid 2nd + a startable TE for Hock? If a team has similar production from a TE that they pulled off the WW (Thomas, Tonyan, etc) why would they give up a mid 2nd for Hock? It just seems like a lateral move for both parties and those moves don't get done often.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby jenkins.math » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:00 am

Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:51 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:37 pm I'm a gambler. If I like where Pitts lands, I'll take him early.
Can you define early? Is he in the tier 1 with Chase/Harris for you, along with one/both of Etienne/Javonte?
I have pick 2 or 3 (cant remember tie breakers) in a league where I'm solid everywhere but TE. Im seriously considering Pitts with that pick.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:07 am

jenkins.math wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:00 am
Pullo Vision wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:51 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote: Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:37 pm I'm a gambler. If I like where Pitts lands, I'll take him early.
Can you define early? Is he in the tier 1 with Chase/Harris for you, along with one/both of Etienne/Javonte?
I have pick 2 or 3 (cant remember tie breakers) in a league where I'm solid everywhere but TE. Im seriously considering Pitts with that pick.
Early as in yes, top tier. Hard to say if I'd take him over Chase or Harris though. Over the rest of the WRs is likely.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby ArrylT » Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:44 pm

I keep seeing Waller mentioned in both this and the other TE thread and it kept bugging me, until I realized why.

Darren Waller was not drafted (in fantasy) as a TE. Nor was he labeled one in the NFL either. He was a WR.

Mizelle ADP on Waller 2015
43 21 Waller, Darren (BAL, WR)® (R43) 206.17 206.00 177 238 18 May: 215.83, Jun: 186.40, Jul: 209.60, Aug: 218.00

IMHO You cannot use Waller as an example as to why you should/should not draft Pitts because Waller was not a TE in rookie drafts. Kelce & Kittle sure. Waller no.

He did not make the switch until 2016. Furthermore Waller missed parts of 2016 & 2017 due to substance abuse. There is literally no way anyone could have predicted prior to 2019 that Waller had a chance of being anything at TE. If you stashed him - kudos to you. But he wasnt in the large majority of mine

TE premium leagues in 2018? Nope.
16 team DLF HOF? Nope.
14 team start 2 TE? Nope.
14 team SF TE prem? Nope.
16 team ST TE prem 30 man roster? Nope.

Madadamus in GridIron 14 team league Yes.

So if your name is not Madadamus shush. :lol: :lol:

Mizelle ADP on Waller 2019
May: 223.50, Jun: 220.50, Jul: 228.83, Aug: 173.50, Sep: 141.00, Oct: 88.75, Nov: 83.75, Dec: 85.25

People picked up Waller as a lottery ticket like they did Arian Foster, Tom Brady, Antonio Brown (he certainly was not drafted in any of the the leagues I was in in 2011) and other unicorns. It is simply not good process to use exceptions as examples as to why you should/should not draft Pitts, because exceptions are out of the norm and unpredictable.

Pitts vs. WRs sure. Pitts vs. hoping to get a Kittle or Kelce later in a draft sure. Try to buy a TE at a discount sure. But Waller is not a case study unless you're projecting Pitts to change positions, miss a few years, and then switch teams & end up in a situation where nothing at WR was blocking him from realizing his full target volume. :wink:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby broncohead » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:40 pm

ArrylT wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:44 pm I keep seeing Waller mentioned in both this and the other TE thread and it kept bugging me, until I realized why.

Darren Waller was not drafted (in fantasy) as a TE. Nor was he labeled one in the NFL either. He was a WR.

Mizelle ADP on Waller 2015
43 21 Waller, Darren (BAL, WR)® (R43) 206.17 206.00 177 238 18 May: 215.83, Jun: 186.40, Jul: 209.60, Aug: 218.00

IMHO You cannot use Waller as an example as to why you should/should not draft Pitts because Waller was not a TE in rookie drafts. Kelce & Kittle sure. Waller no.

He did not make the switch until 2016. Furthermore Waller missed parts of 2016 & 2017 due to substance abuse. There is literally no way anyone could have predicted prior to 2019 that Waller had a chance of being anything at TE. If you stashed him - kudos to you. But he wasnt in the large majority of mine

TE premium leagues in 2018? Nope.
16 team DLF HOF? Nope.
14 team start 2 TE? Nope.
14 team SF TE prem? Nope.
16 team ST TE prem 30 man roster? Nope.

Madadamus in GridIron 14 team league Yes.

So if your name is not Madadamus shush. :lol: :lol:

Mizelle ADP on Waller 2019
May: 223.50, Jun: 220.50, Jul: 228.83, Aug: 173.50, Sep: 141.00, Oct: 88.75, Nov: 83.75, Dec: 85.25

People picked up Waller as a lottery ticket like they did Arian Foster, Tom Brady, Antonio Brown (he certainly was not drafted in any of the the leagues I was in in 2011) and other unicorns. It is simply not good process to use exceptions as examples as to why you should/should not draft Pitts, because exceptions are out of the norm and unpredictable.

Pitts vs. WRs sure. Pitts vs. hoping to get a Kittle or Kelce later in a draft sure. Try to buy a TE at a discount sure. But Waller is not a case study unless you're projecting Pitts to change positions, miss a few years, and then switch teams & end up in a situation where nothing at WR was blocking him from realizing his full target volume. :wink:
I think people using Waller as an example to emphasize how unpredictable the TE position is. It’s so unpredictable that an undrafted WR turned TE is now a top asset at the position. Hock was the only guy in the top 5 drafted in the top 2 rounds. You stated that he’s the exception, but the problem is there really isn’t any rules to drafting TEs. There is no exception cause there’s no rule.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby dark_knite03 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:46 am

After Chase and Harris give me Pitts. Talent over situation is preached time and time again. His position played is just that situation.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby MEuRaH » Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:50 am

I'm not drafting Pitts in standard leagues for all the reasons that Cameron mentioned. If you need a TE and you have the 1.05 and you're considering Pitts, why not reach out to the Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews owners? You'd get an impact TE now instead of taking a chance on the ceiling of Pitts. Or, reach out to the Hock owner and maybe get Hock+?

If I'm in a TE Premium league with the 1.05 and I need a TE, I see the allure and I might be pulling the trigger depending on landing spot. TEs are hard enough to acquire in these leagues as it is, especially the elite ones. If Pitts gets just 40 catches in his first season in the league, his value would go up immediately and he'd basically be unattainable.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Cameron Giles » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:05 am

jenkins.math wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:59 am
Sure, but I think youre ignoring both parties involved. If I took Hock/Fant in the late first area, why would I trade them for a mid 2nd or worse? I still have to start a TE, so am I getting mid 2nd + a startable TE for Hock? If a team has similar production from a TE that they pulled off the WW (Thomas, Tonyan, etc) why would they give up a mid 2nd for Hock? It just seems like a lateral move for both parties and those moves don't get done often.
You wouldn't unless you completely sour on Hock or Fant while they're struggling, which often people do.

Everyone goes into dynasty learning, understanding, and accepting that the TE position is the most slow burn position, but has the most upside because there aren't many studs there. If you've had Kelce, Kittle or Waller in one of the last two years, it's like starting another WR1 or at worst a high-end WR2.

Despite that, people move on quickly from TEs if they don't produce. It's a combination of impatience, other shiny new prospects coming along (deep classes make early 2nds appealing), you moving your team in a different direction, etc.

Pitts may be the best TE prospect in quite some time, but it wasn't that long ago that we had the greatest TE in class in quite some time in 2017. And so far, the only stud from that class is a 5th round TE who caught less than 50 passes in college.

TE continues to be a random success position where draft pedigree hasn't seemed to matter. Just for reference, here's a list of every TE who's been drafted in the 1st or 2nd round since 2010:

2010: Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski
2011: Kyle Rudolph, Lance Kendricks
2012: Coby Fleener
2013: Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald
2014: Eric Ebron, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Jace Amaro, Troy Niklas
2015: Maxx Williams
2016: Hunter Henry
2017: OJ Howard, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Gerald Everett, Adam Shaheen
2018: Hayden Hurst, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert
2019: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Irv Smith Jr., Drew Sample
2020: Cole Kmet

It's a goldmine of busts and underachievers. Gronk and Ertz stick out, but that's 2 out of 28.

Like I said, I think Pitts will be a stud, even if it may take some bumps and bruises to get there. Playing that TE development curve on top of the historically random TE success seems wiser than going hard at an early 1st right now.

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Ice » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:47 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:50 am I'm not drafting Pitts in standard leagues for all the reasons that Cameron mentioned. If you need a TE and you have the 1.05 and you're considering Pitts, why not reach out to the Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews owners? You'd get an impact TE now instead of taking a chance on the ceiling of Pitts. Or, reach out to the Hock owner and maybe get Hock+?

If I'm in a TE Premium league with the 1.05 and I need a TE, I see the allure and I might be pulling the trigger depending on landing spot. TEs are hard enough to acquire in these leagues as it is, especially the elite ones. If Pitts gets just 40 catches in his first season in the league, his value would go up immediately and he'd basically be unattainable.
Getting hung up in Pitt's player designation is like not seeing the forest because all those pesky trees are in the way.

The best 2 skill position player in this draft excluding QB's come down to Pitts and Chase. The best of the best Dynasty players look at the NFL and see the transition going on then draft accordingly.

Getting stuck in the past is like what football was like prior to Red Hickey inventing the Shotgun made famous by Tom Landry a few years later. The game is changing gentlemen but by all means adapt slowly so the rest of can win more titles.

Not drafting Pitt's because of his designation is straight up ....... IMO no matter how one spins it.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby jenkins.math » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:08 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:50 am I'm not drafting Pitts in standard leagues for all the reasons that Cameron mentioned. If you need a TE and you have the 1.05 and you're considering Pitts, why not reach out to the Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews owners? You'd get an impact TE now instead of taking a chance on the ceiling of Pitts. Or, reach out to the Hock owner and maybe get Hock+?

If I'm in a TE Premium league with the 1.05 and I need a TE, I see the allure and I might be pulling the trigger depending on landing spot. TEs are hard enough to acquire in these leagues as it is, especially the elite ones. If Pitts gets just 40 catches in his first season in the league, his value would go up immediately and he'd basically be unattainable.
Isn't the idea behind a dynasty team to always make your team more valuable? Take the best player available and trade him if you must to fill needs later. So if you think all it would take is 40 receptions from Pitts to increase his value to even higher levels, wouldn't that make sense to draft him just based on that alone?

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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:21 am

Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:05 amEveryone goes into dynasty learning, understanding, and accepting that the TE position is the most slow burn position, but has the most upside because there aren't many studs there.
This is an interesting thing, but I’m not sure it’s true; I think it might be QB. The difference seems to be that we’ve internalized this about QB, so even though their performance takes a while to come up to speed, their value rises more quickly. Look at the QBs- Herbert’s top 10 performance boosted him into the top 5, Burrow’s average performance kept him in the top 10, and Tua’s awful showing kept him in the top 15, because we know QBs are supposed to take a while.

TEs anecdotally burn similarly slowly, and I’m not sure if it’s really QBs or TEs that take longer (it would be a behemoth of a task to compare the two positions and their development curves, but I’d love to see it) but my experience is that people were way more ready to dump Mike Gesicki than Tua.

My initial point, that I still believe, is that I don’t think the “buy-low” window on Pitts is coming; the hype is too strong. If you think Pitts is risky and might bust, fine. I don’t agree, but I recognize that good prospects bust all the time. My advice is that make sure the player you’re taking ahead of Pitts is actually somebody you think will be better.
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Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby bjd5211 » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:52 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:21 am
Cameron Giles wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:05 amEveryone goes into dynasty learning, understanding, and accepting that the TE position is the most slow burn position, but has the most upside because there aren't many studs there.
This is an interesting thing, but I’m not sure it’s true; I think it might be QB. The difference seems to be that we’ve internalized this about QB, so even though their performance takes a while to come up to speed, their value rises more quickly. Look at the QBs- Herbert’s top 10 performance boosted him into the top 5, Burrow’s average performance kept him in the top 10, and Tua’s awful showing kept him in the top 15, because we know QBs are supposed to take a while.
Except they don't. All the top QBs have hit in fantasy within their first 2 years in the league and been good to great in their first year as starter. Even Josh Allen who probably had some questions as an NFL QB after his first 2 seasons was still an excellent fantasy player.

Mizelle's current top 10 veteran QBs are:

1 Mahomes
2 Allen
3 Kyler
4 Herbert
5 Dak
6 Lamar
7 Russ
8 Watson
9 Burrow (was on pace for 4,300/21 over 16 games)
10 Rodgers

All of them were good pretty much right away once they got their opportunities. Rodgers took longer than the rest because of the obvious Favre complication, but had 4,000 yards and 28 TDs in his first year as starter.
Last edited by bjd5211 on Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.


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