Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
Bot101
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4695
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:32 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:55 pm

McCafsteez wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:17 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:31 pm
Jigga94 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:32 pm If you drafted Butler or Vaughn mid 1st, you shouldn't play dynasty. No one is saying Pitts has to break out year 1 either. I don't expect many of my rookies to do that, some never do lol

Is Pitts truly the best TE in a decade? I've heard that thrown around with a lot of TE in years prior. What separates him the most from the big TE prospects of the past?
Just clear up a few things. I believe around the time I joined; This site had Butler as the top WR and and many thought Harry was going to be great.

My take is these players were terrible and not even draft worthy. I also was the absolute leader of the DK hype train which was also blasted but in reality anyone who drafted those busts is fine playing dynasty they just missed judged talent.

My take on Pitts and if you evaluate him he looks like a man among boys much like DK did. Pitts looks a lot like Calvin Johnson if you want to go back and watch his early tape.

Pitts plays in space well, excellent hand catcher, and back shoulder. He is a plus route runner. Pitts is a prototype space player much like Kelce but with maybe even more WR qualities.

He put up 770 yards and 12 TD's in 8 games.

I would strongly suggest anyone that evaluates this player step out of the confining TE BOX for a moment and look at this player as an actual receiving threat weapon with a TE designation.

This player is as close to a lock top 10 pick as I have seen in years. I would a lay a grand in Vegas he goes top 15 overall in the NFL draft.

He is a very high floor unlimited ceiling player in a few years IMO. Draft him if you can is my advice.
Yes, Pitts was impressive. I hope I am proven wrong by him, but I think I will take the side of past data and pass on him with my early first round picks. This happens every year with the top one or two TEs. The likelihood of Pitts hitting and being more valuable than the other RBs and WRs in the top of the first round is slim to none. Again...I hope I am wrong. If Pitts is there at the 1.09 slot, I'll take him.
Refer to my earlier post in this thread. Overall, this class is kinda poo. If there is a reason to take Pitts early in non SF/TE premium, this being a weak class is a good reason.

Cameron Giles
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 14242
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:00 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:21 pm Finally remembered what all this pre draft hype reminded me of: Jeremy Shockey.
If Pitts walks into 128 targets in his rookie season like Shockey did..

Ice
Legend
Legend
Posts: 6589
Joined: Tue May 22, 2018 6:17 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Ice » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:08 pm

Maybe a weak RB class but this class is really strong at QB, WR, and not bad at TE.

There are 3 - 4 pretty good RB’s but not like last season.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts

abloom
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 11535
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:33 am

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby abloom » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:17 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:08 pm Maybe a weak RB class but this class is really strong at QB, WR, and not bad at TE.

There are 3 - 4 pretty good RB’s but not like last season.
We've been spoiled by the previous RB classes. This one definitely appears to be weaker as you said. And I agree definitely a strong QB, TE, and WR class. A little worried about the depth, but top end talent looks good.
Team #1: 2nd place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Kyler, Fields, AR
R: JT, CMC, Barkley, chandler
W: Evans, Chase, Mooney, Collins, Dell, Pickens, wilson
T: Kelce, Goedert, Thomas, woods
D: cle, nyj
K: Sanders

Team #2: back to back champion
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: R Wilson, Murray, Watson, Browning, Rudolph, Zappe
R: Swift, Walker, Dobbins, gus bus
W: Puka, Metcalf, Dell, Cooper, DJM, K Allen, Nuk, Tre tucker, C Samuel,
T: Kelce, Pitts
K: Tucker
D: CLE

Team #3: back to back champion
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Heinicke, walker
R: Mostert, walker, a Jones, Wilson, Charb, Z White, McLaughlin, freeman, d Williams, Reynolds,
W: Waddle, A St Brown, K Allen, Cooper, Nuk, Juju
T: Kelce, Schultz, Thomas, Ferguson

Team #4 3rd
https://www49.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0004&O=01

Team #5 4th
https://www45.myfantasyleague.com/2023/ ... =0009&O=01

User avatar
Bot101
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4695
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:32 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:27 pm

Ice wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:08 pm Maybe a weak RB class but this class is really strong at QB, WR, and not bad at TE.

There are 3 - 4 pretty good RB’s but not like last season.
Yes, which is why I said Id take Pitts early in non SF/TE premium leagues. But Im not intrigued by this WR class either. All the prospects save a few have red flags.

StripesOfKC
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4792
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:32 pm

Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:27 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:08 pm Maybe a weak RB class but this class is really strong at QB, WR, and not bad at TE.

There are 3 - 4 pretty good RB’s but not like last season.
Yes, which is why I said Id take Pitts early in non SF/TE premium leagues. But Im not intrigued by this WR class either. All the prospects save a few have red flags.
I mean the vast majority of prospects period have red flags

Are we acting in hindsight like Terry McLaurin, DK, Claypool and Aiyuk were untouchably perfect prospects?

I don't think this class is 2020 but that's a dumb reason to ding it

User avatar
Bot101
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4695
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:32 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:45 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:32 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:27 pm
Ice wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:08 pm Maybe a weak RB class but this class is really strong at QB, WR, and not bad at TE.

There are 3 - 4 pretty good RB’s but not like last season.
Yes, which is why I said Id take Pitts early in non SF/TE premium leagues. But Im not intrigued by this WR class either. All the prospects save a few have red flags.
I mean the vast majority of prospects period have red flags

Are we acting in hindsight like Terry McLaurin, DK, Claypool and Aiyuk were untouchably perfect prospects?

I don't think this class is 2020 but that's a dumb reason to ding it
Well I am more in the business of trying to avoid landmines rather than diamonds in the rough. And there are a lot of landmines in this class, more so than others. My point is Pitts has less red flags than most of the other prospects. In SF leagues I would obviously not take Pitts before the top QB prospects. But I would definitely take him above any WR not named Chase, and above any of the RB prospects.

StripesOfKC
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4792
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:09 pm

Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:45 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:32 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:27 pm

Yes, which is why I said Id take Pitts early in non SF/TE premium leagues. But Im not intrigued by this WR class either. All the prospects save a few have red flags.
I mean the vast majority of prospects period have red flags

Are we acting in hindsight like Terry McLaurin, DK, Claypool and Aiyuk were untouchably perfect prospects?

I don't think this class is 2020 but that's a dumb reason to ding it
Well I am more in the business of trying to avoid landmines rather than diamonds in the rough. And there are a lot of landmines in this class, more so than others. My point is Pitts has less red flags than most of the other prospects. In SF leagues I would obviously not take Pitts before the top QB prospects. But I would definitely take him above any WR not named Chase, and above any of the RB prospects.
I agree with that for the most part--only exception being Bateman and mayybe Williams depending on landing spot

User avatar
Bot101
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4695
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:32 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:22 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:09 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:45 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:32 pm

I mean the vast majority of prospects period have red flags

Are we acting in hindsight like Terry McLaurin, DK, Claypool and Aiyuk were untouchably perfect prospects?

I don't think this class is 2020 but that's a dumb reason to ding it
Well I am more in the business of trying to avoid landmines rather than diamonds in the rough. And there are a lot of landmines in this class, more so than others. My point is Pitts has less red flags than most of the other prospects. In SF leagues I would obviously not take Pitts before the top QB prospects. But I would definitely take him above any WR not named Chase, and above any of the RB prospects.
I agree with that for the most part--only exception being Bateman and mayybe Williams depending on landing spot
Bateman is just ok to me. And after Williams pro day numbers came out today, I safely have Pitts above him.

StripesOfKC
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4792
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:30 pm

Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:22 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:09 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:45 pm

Well I am more in the business of trying to avoid landmines rather than diamonds in the rough. And there are a lot of landmines in this class, more so than others. My point is Pitts has less red flags than most of the other prospects. In SF leagues I would obviously not take Pitts before the top QB prospects. But I would definitely take him above any WR not named Chase, and above any of the RB prospects.
I agree with that for the most part--only exception being Bateman and mayybe Williams depending on landing spot
Bateman is just ok to me. And after Williams pro day numbers came out today, I safely have Pitts above him.
Yeah I would lean Pitts over Williams too but I don't think the positional value of an RB can be ignored. Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs are kinda just okay to me too and both gained value really fast and maintained it through rough patches (until the Drake signing anyways for Jacobs)

As for Bateman it just reminds me of Jefferson last year a bit or Allen Robinson/Chris Godwin in their day. Perfect profile with elite age/experience adjusted production, freshman breakout in a good conference without great QB play, early declare and on tape no one really hates him or points to any major glaring flaws yet he is pushed down for not popping on tape off like some other guys. I've rarely seen him as DND or avoid for anyone but few stick their necks out to plant their flag for him and those are the names that I last saw that dynamic for

User avatar
Bot101
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4695
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:32 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:58 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:30 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:22 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:09 pm

I agree with that for the most part--only exception being Bateman and mayybe Williams depending on landing spot
Bateman is just ok to me. And after Williams pro day numbers came out today, I safely have Pitts above him.
Yeah I would lean Pitts over Williams too but I don't think the positional value of an RB can be ignored. Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs are kinda just okay to me too and both gained value really fast and maintained it through rough patches (until the Drake signing anyways for Jacobs)

As for Bateman it just reminds me of Jefferson last year a bit or Allen Robinson/Chris Godwin in their day. Perfect profile with elite age/experience adjusted production, freshman breakout in a good conference without great QB play, early declare and on tape no one really hates him or points to any major glaring flaws yet he is pushed down for not popping on tape off like some other guys. I've rarely seen him as DND or avoid for anyone but few stick their necks out to plant their flag for him and those are the names that I last saw that dynamic for
Thats where I veer off. I view Sanders as a very good player and Jacobs as on ok player who was overrated by fantasy managers from day 1, always have. Jacobs wasnt high on my board because he had red flags that dropped him down. I was higher on Sanders and I still think hes great despite his situation. But I typically stick to talent > situation unless the draft slaps me in the face with information that I didnt have access to before. At this point I order my guys by putting the most easy to identify probably good players at the top, and shuffle the red flag guys down, then let the draft capital and exact landing spots sift further. Thats all we can do as dynasty managers.

StripesOfKC
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4792
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:38 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby StripesOfKC » Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:01 pm

Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:58 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:30 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:22 pm

Bateman is just ok to me. And after Williams pro day numbers came out today, I safely have Pitts above him.
Yeah I would lean Pitts over Williams too but I don't think the positional value of an RB can be ignored. Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs are kinda just okay to me too and both gained value really fast and maintained it through rough patches (until the Drake signing anyways for Jacobs)

As for Bateman it just reminds me of Jefferson last year a bit or Allen Robinson/Chris Godwin in their day. Perfect profile with elite age/experience adjusted production, freshman breakout in a good conference without great QB play, early declare and on tape no one really hates him or points to any major glaring flaws yet he is pushed down for not popping on tape off like some other guys. I've rarely seen him as DND or avoid for anyone but few stick their necks out to plant their flag for him and those are the names that I last saw that dynamic for
Thats where I veer off. I view Sanders as a very good player and Jacobs as on ok player who was overrated by fantasy managers from day 1, always have. Jacobs wasnt high on my board because he had red flags that dropped him down. I was higher on Sanders and I still think hes great despite his situation. But I typically stick to talent > situation unless the draft slaps me in the face with information that I didnt have access to before. At this point I order my guys by putting the most easy to identify probably good players at the top, and shuffle the red flag guys down, then let the draft capital and exact landing spots sift further. Thats all we can do as dynasty managers.
I agree with this from now on. My first few years I didn't and the pre draft rankings almost always ended up more accurate than the post draft ones. Definitely taking an approach more similar to yours from now on

User avatar
Bot101
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4695
Joined: Mon Jun 22, 2015 7:32 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:16 pm

StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:01 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:58 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:30 pm

Yeah I would lean Pitts over Williams too but I don't think the positional value of an RB can be ignored. Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs are kinda just okay to me too and both gained value really fast and maintained it through rough patches (until the Drake signing anyways for Jacobs)

As for Bateman it just reminds me of Jefferson last year a bit or Allen Robinson/Chris Godwin in their day. Perfect profile with elite age/experience adjusted production, freshman breakout in a good conference without great QB play, early declare and on tape no one really hates him or points to any major glaring flaws yet he is pushed down for not popping on tape off like some other guys. I've rarely seen him as DND or avoid for anyone but few stick their necks out to plant their flag for him and those are the names that I last saw that dynamic for
Thats where I veer off. I view Sanders as a very good player and Jacobs as on ok player who was overrated by fantasy managers from day 1, always have. Jacobs wasnt high on my board because he had red flags that dropped him down. I was higher on Sanders and I still think hes great despite his situation. But I typically stick to talent > situation unless the draft slaps me in the face with information that I didnt have access to before. At this point I order my guys by putting the most easy to identify probably good players at the top, and shuffle the red flag guys down, then let the draft capital and exact landing spots sift further. Thats all we can do as dynasty managers.
I agree with this from now on. My first few years I didn't and the pre draft rankings almost always ended up more accurate than the post draft ones. Definitely taking an approach more similar to yours from now on
I cant take credit for this. Ive heard others mention it in various places. Its more important to avoid bad players than it is to try to hit a home run. If a red flag player hits, than be ok and accept that you didnt take that player and stick to your process, more often times you'll avoid a huge bust.

Bronco Billy
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3728
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:12 am

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby Bronco Billy » Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:17 pm

Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:16 pm
StripesOfKC wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:01 pm
Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:58 pm

Thats where I veer off. I view Sanders as a very good player and Jacobs as on ok player who was overrated by fantasy managers from day 1, always have. Jacobs wasnt high on my board because he had red flags that dropped him down. I was higher on Sanders and I still think hes great despite his situation. But I typically stick to talent > situation unless the draft slaps me in the face with information that I didnt have access to before. At this point I order my guys by putting the most easy to identify probably good players at the top, and shuffle the red flag guys down, then let the draft capital and exact landing spots sift further. Thats all we can do as dynasty managers.
I agree with this from now on. My first few years I didn't and the pre draft rankings almost always ended up more accurate than the post draft ones. Definitely taking an approach more similar to yours from now on
I cant take credit for this. Ive heard others mention it in various places. Its more important to avoid bad players than it is to try to hit a home run. If a red flag player hits, than be ok and accept that you didnt take that player and stick to your process, more often times you'll avoid a huge bust.
With you guys 110%. Learned that lesson the hard way one too many times.

failblazer
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1836
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2013 3:19 pm

Re: Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

Postby failblazer » Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:32 am

I can absolutely see both sides of this issue. I think Pitts is just a different level of prospect than a lot of guys mentioned and is legitimately good enough to be a team's #1 passing option by year 2. With that said, as has already been pointed out, the success rate is just not there historically. I am still sat on my Howard and Njoku shares from 2017 so I very much feel the pain of that.

For any team I have that is contending, I won't touch him. I'll load up on the WRs and QBs in this draft to restock depth behind my starters. The place I will look to draft him is in my rebuilds. I have a LOT of 1st and 2nd round picks for my rebuilding teams so I am comfortable taking him, knowing that I don't need anything out of him for 1-2 years while I round into a productive team. I am willing to take the chance since, by then, guys like Kelce and Waller will be starting to age out and Pitts could be a massive advantage given the sheer lack of top options at the position. In that situation, I'd rather take the chance on a rarer commodity and find other positions by drafting in volume.
16 Team PPR (11th Year Dynasty - Former 2 Time Champion)
P. Mahomes, Z. Wilson
C. McCaffrey, N. Harris, C. Hubbard
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, D. Johnson, G. Davis, D. Mims, J. Palmer
D. Waller, C. Kmet, B. Jordan

C. Young, R. Quinn
D. Leonard, M. Milano, C. Mosely, B. Okereke, J. Davis
J. Simmons, J. Fuller

Picks - 1.01, 2.12, 3.01, 3.15, 4.14

16 Team PPR (10th Year Dynasty - Reigning 5 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, J. Fields
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Dobbins, M. Davis
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Green, T. Johnson, Dy. Brown, G. Pickens, J. Tolbert,
N. Fant, A. Okwugbunam, J. Harris
J. Elliott

D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
R. Smith, B. Okereke, L. Wilson, J. Davis, D. Tranquil, B. Asamoah
J. Simmons, W. Harris


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests