The Deshaun Watson Discussion Thread

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bjd5211
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby bjd5211 » Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:00 am

CubfanAA wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:35 am The Jay Cutler trade is by far the closest to what a Watson deal would be. Young pro bowl QB that threw for 4500 yards and 25 TDs the year before the trade. He netted 2 1sts, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton. I would expect Watson to command a very similar haul. Watson has better stats than Cutler did, but all QB's have better stats today than QB's back then. Watson is probably considered a bit better than Cutler was at the time, but Cutler still had a year left on his rookie contract which Watson doesn't so 2 1sts, a 3rd, and a throwaway player is probably about right.
Watson does have a year left of his rookie contract, next year is his 5th year option and the extension starts in 2022.

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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby dynastyninja » Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:13 am

I haven't looked through every possible scenario, but it seems like a deal centered around Tua/1.03 is the only one that could work. I could see both teams being happy with that return.

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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:29 am

bjd5211 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:00 am
CubfanAA wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:35 am The Jay Cutler trade is by far the closest to what a Watson deal would be. Young pro bowl QB that threw for 4500 yards and 25 TDs the year before the trade. He netted 2 1sts, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton. I would expect Watson to command a very similar haul. Watson has better stats than Cutler did, but all QB's have better stats today than QB's back then. Watson is probably considered a bit better than Cutler was at the time, but Cutler still had a year left on his rookie contract which Watson doesn't so 2 1sts, a 3rd, and a throwaway player is probably about right.
Watson does have a year left of his rookie contract, next year is his 5th year option and the extension starts in 2022.
Watson is also way more than a bit better. Watson is a vastly superior player.

In Cutler's 3rd year he threw 18 interceptions and 25 TD's
His 4th season with a new team he threw 26 interceptions and 27 TD's.

Watson just threw 33 TD's against 7 interceptions in his 4th year. In is last 2 years he threw 59 TD's against 19 interceptions.
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby CGW » Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:45 am

dynastyninja wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:13 am I haven't looked through every possible scenario, but it seems like a deal centered around Tua/1.03 is the only one that could work. I could see both teams being happy with that return.
Miami would have to be the far and away favorite. Everything else is just fan bias and dreaming. Not many teams have the assets to pull this off and of the short list that do, I think the Texans or Watson would veto most (Jax, NYJ).

The OBJ trade isn't even on the same planet as trading away a young superstar at the QB position.

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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby CubfanAA » Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:48 am

Ice wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:29 am
bjd5211 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:00 am
CubfanAA wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:35 am The Jay Cutler trade is by far the closest to what a Watson deal would be. Young pro bowl QB that threw for 4500 yards and 25 TDs the year before the trade. He netted 2 1sts, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton. I would expect Watson to command a very similar haul. Watson has better stats than Cutler did, but all QB's have better stats today than QB's back then. Watson is probably considered a bit better than Cutler was at the time, but Cutler still had a year left on his rookie contract which Watson doesn't so 2 1sts, a 3rd, and a throwaway player is probably about right.
Watson does have a year left of his rookie contract, next year is his 5th year option and the extension starts in 2022.
Watson is also way more than a bit better. Watson is a vastly superior player.

In Cutler's 3rd year he threw 18 interceptions and 25 TD's
His 4th season with a new team he threw 26 interceptions and 27 TD's.

Watson just threw 33 TD's against 7 interceptions in his 4th year. In is last 2 years he threw 59 TD's against 19 interceptions.
Like I said....It was a different game back then. In 2008 Drew Brees threw 17 INT's, Favre threw 22, Warner 14, Rodgers 13. Every single top QB had double digit INT's. Cutler throwing 18 wasn't looked at badly for a 3rd year player that threw for more passing yards than all but 2 QBs that year and was 7th in TDs. Yes, Cutler performed poorly AFTER the trade, but in the year right before the trade he looked like a superstar in the making and stats after the trade don't mean a damned thing when evaluating how the trade was viewed at the time or when using the trade as a comparison for possible hauls of similar trades. We don't have any clue what Watson will do AFTER he is traded (IF he is).

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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 21, 2021 9:36 am

CubfanAA wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:48 am
Ice wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:29 am
bjd5211 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:00 am

Watson does have a year left of his rookie contract, next year is his 5th year option and the extension starts in 2022.
Watson is also way more than a bit better. Watson is a vastly superior player.

In Cutler's 3rd year he threw 18 interceptions and 25 TD's
His 4th season with a new team he threw 26 interceptions and 27 TD's.

Watson just threw 33 TD's against 7 interceptions in his 4th year. In is last 2 years he threw 59 TD's against 19 interceptions.
Like I said....It was a different game back then. In 2008 Drew Brees threw 17 INT's, Favre threw 22, Warner 14, Rodgers 13. Every single top QB had double digit INT's. Cutler throwing 18 wasn't looked at badly for a 3rd year player that threw for more passing yards than all but 2 QBs that year and was 7th in TDs. Yes, Cutler performed poorly AFTER the trade, but in the year right before the trade he looked like a superstar in the making and stats after the trade don't mean a damned thing when evaluating how the trade was viewed at the time or when using the trade as a comparison for possible hauls of similar trades. We don't have any clue what Watson will do AFTER he is traded (IF he is).
Not really, the game isn't so different that turnovers don't matter. Cutler may be the worst in history at throwing interceptions in the red zone. I haven't checked those stats in years but you may want to check it out. Not all Interceptions are equal but Comparing the talent of these two as remotely close is revisionist history.

Cutler did have a rocket arm but his decision making was the reason he was traded. Cutler was a coach killer.
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby murphysxm » Thu Jan 21, 2021 9:40 am

Ice wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 9:36 am

Not really, Cutler may be the worst in history at throwing interceptions in the red zone. I haven't checked the stats but you may want to check it out. Not all Interceptions are equal but Comparing the talent of these two as remotely close is revisionist history.

Cutler did have a rocket arm but his decision making was the reason he was traded. Cutler was a coach killer.
He was also looked at as a prima donna with zero leadership skills that his talent didnt/couldn't overcome. There is a reason when young talented QB's are traded. These two scenarios are vastly different. If Watson wasn't unhappy there would be ZERO chance the Texans would be looking to trade him.
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby CubfanAA » Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:03 am

murphysxm wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 9:40 am
Ice wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 9:36 am

Not really, Cutler may be the worst in history at throwing interceptions in the red zone. I haven't checked the stats but you may want to check it out. Not all Interceptions are equal but Comparing the talent of these two as remotely close is revisionist history.

Cutler did have a rocket arm but his decision making was the reason he was traded. Cutler was a coach killer.
He was also looked at as a prima donna with zero leadership skills that his talent didnt/couldn't overcome. There is a reason when young talented QB's are traded. These two scenarios are vastly different. If Watson wasn't unhappy there would be ZERO chance the Texans would be looking to trade him.
I feel like people are totally forgetting the reality of the Cutler trade here. Cutler was not traded because of his decision making. The leadership issues were a thing during his time in Chicago...not Denver. Cutler was traded because he hated Josh McDaniels who had just been hired as the HC of Denver. Cutler called his agent and demanded a trade after his first meeting with McDaniels. Cutler also refused to engage with the team or offseason program until he got said trade. Cutler wanted away from Denver...not Denver wanting rid of Cutler. Same exact scenario as Watson.

So reading responses here....I'm expected to believe that a Prima Donna Pro Bowl young QB who wants traded because of leadership changes on his team is a vastly different scenario than a Prima Donna Pro Bowl young QB who wants traded because of leadership changes on his team?

I think Cutlers later career is very much skewing the view of him early in his career.

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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby honcho55 » Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:53 am

I think you’re right that it’s the only thing close. Have to agree with those saying Watson is significantly better than Cutler, even comparing those stages of his career. I do see your point though, might not be super far off.

Also not mentioned yet (I don’t think), super early picks are even more valuable now vs previous eras of the NFL, as rookie deals are cheap vs bank breakers. Cutlers rookie deal was pre-2011, where this change happened. I’m not digging super deep, but his rookie deal was 6 year 48 million. At a glance, average-ish starter money. Watson is considerably cheaper in relative terms.

Edit: so, while I think Watson is a solid notch more valuable than Cutler, in relative terms, picks are also more valuable. So maybe that trade is a baseline for what we might see. Gut still says it’s gonna cost more.
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby burntfire » Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:58 am

The Godwin Complex wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:16 pm Could Carson Wentz and the 1.6 be enough for Watson?

Then trade Hurts to recoup some picks?


OR


Colts receive
Carson Wentz

Texans receive 1.6 (PHI) 1.21 (IND), Jalen Hurts and some added assets from Indy

Eagles receive
Watson


Watson is out of the conference, the Texans get a young QB with upside with some picks, the Colts and Eagles get a franchise QB.

A man can only wish.....
You think 2 1st round picks and Hurts would get it done? Not a chance.

Again the 1st would have to be top 3 minimum OR several top 10 picks this year and next.

I do however think Washington is interesting.. getting Chase Young in return with the Texans more than likely trading Watt could be substantial.

BUT... if Watson leaves I'm done with the organization. I've been die hard for a long time but if they truly release an uber talented QB in Watson to TRY AND FIND ANOTHER ONE... i'm done.
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby murphysxm » Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:40 pm

burntfire wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:58 am BUT... if Watson leaves I'm done with the organization. I've been die hard for a long time but if they truly release an uber talented QB in Watson to TRY AND FIND ANOTHER ONE... i'm done.
I don't know how the Bill O'Brien experience didn't already make you done. He set the Texans back atleast 5 years trying to save his job
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby mild » Thu Jan 21, 2021 3:12 pm

CGW wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:45 am
dynastyninja wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:13 am I haven't looked through every possible scenario, but it seems like a deal centered around Tua/1.03 is the only one that could work. I could see both teams being happy with that return.
Miami would have to be the far and away favorite. Everything else is just fan bias and dreaming. Not many teams have the assets to pull this off and of the short list that do, I think the Texans or Watson would veto most (Jax, NYJ).
The Jets are very much in this, and I'm very much not a Jets fan. Watson wouldn't be veto-ing that move. In fact...

https://twitter.com/TheNJMick/status/13 ... 33699?s=20

He had no need to like that post. But he did it anyway to intentionally stoke those fires. The NFL offseason is fun.

Also, Richard Sherman weighed in - on no uncertain terms:
https://nypost.com/2021/01/20/deshaun-w ... d-sherman/

He might know a thing or two about the Saleh/LaFleur combo they've got going there in NY.
“If I was Deshaun, I’d get out of there as quickly as possible. I’d head to New York. … The Jets.”

“It would be the most beautiful. Decent offensive line. They’d have to find some threats, they’d have to find some offensive weapons, but I think there would be a lot more people excited to be there. I think the free-agency market this year is gonna be oversaturated because of the salary cap, but that’s what I would do. I’d be out of there on the first thing smokin’.”
The price for Watson starts at probably 3-4 1sts - so for the Jets, I could see them packaging #2 overall, 2022 Seahawks 1st, 2023 Jets 1st - plus Darnold and their 2nd this year. That would still leave the Jets with 1st round picks this year and next, and their o-line intact. Like Sherman said - this year may feature a softer market for veteran FA's due to the reduced salary cap, and certain teams being functionally ruled out of bidding already (Saints, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers - etc)

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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby honcho55 » Thu Jan 21, 2021 5:03 pm

burntfire wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:58 am
The Godwin Complex wrote: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:16 pm Could Carson Wentz and the 1.6 be enough for Watson?

Then trade Hurts to recoup some picks?


OR


Colts receive
Carson Wentz

Texans receive 1.6 (PHI) 1.21 (IND), Jalen Hurts and some added assets from Indy

Eagles receive
Watson


Watson is out of the conference, the Texans get a young QB with upside with some picks, the Colts and Eagles get a franchise QB.

A man can only wish.....
You think 2 1st round picks and Hurts would get it done? Not a chance.

Again the 1st would have to be top 3 minimum OR several top 10 picks this year and next.

I do however think Washington is interesting.. getting Chase Young in return with the Texans more than likely trading Watt could be substantial.

BUT... if Watson leaves I'm done with the organization. I've been die hard for a long time but if they truly release an uber talented QB in Watson to TRY AND FIND ANOTHER ONE... i'm done.
Man I hear ya.

But.

There’s a lot of moving parts, and a lot of stuff we (joe schmo public) don’t necessarily hear. It’s at least a chance, if they deal him, that it was actually the best case scenario at the time.

Consider, with all the other blunders, if this FO got straddled with Watson sitting out a year instead of getting a huge haul? Hard to gauge from my standpoint.
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RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby thebadferret » Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:05 am

Am I the only one who thinks more than 3 (if even) first round picks will never happen? Do the Texans hold any leverage in that negotiations?

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Re: Deshaun Watson's new deal

Postby jman3134 » Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:00 am

They have no leverage now and Watson's antics are going to make the deal sweeter for the team where he lands, which is the smart play. He is totally out of the picture with the Texans.
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