The Deshaun Watson Discussion Thread

[bjd5211]

The draw for the Miami or NYJ deals are their picks, not their QB (especially Darnold). The most valuable piece they would be adding is 1.02 or 1.03, with other picks added on. Yes Chase is about the same value as those picks, but Houston won't be trading Watson without a potential franchise QB coming back in return and Washington can't offer that.

More than fair. I'm just advocating that if both Miami and the Jets walk away from the table for whatever reason, any Washington deal involving Chase definitely has them in the mix with "enough assets" to get something done - potentially. It's also no slam-dunk that the 1.02 or 1.03 results in a Franchise QB - just the illusion of one.

Which is why I said POTENTIAL franchise QB. Getting the 2nd or 3rd pick would guarantee they get one of Wilson or Fields, who are on par with or possibly ahead of Watson when he was a draft prospect, and resets their QB salary clock which goes a long way to help their cap issues. It's obviously a risk moving Watson for an unknown, which is why they would get more than 1.02/1.03, but if you are going to move him you have to be getting back a high end QB prospect with a full rookie contract back in return.

[Pullo Vision]

The draw for the Miami or NYJ deals are their picks, not their QB (especially Darnold). The most valuable piece they would be adding is 1.02 or 1.03, with other picks added on. Yes Chase is about the same value as those picks, but Houston won't be trading Watson without a potential franchise QB coming back in return and Washington can't offer that.

I can respect that's your opinion, even if I don't agree with it. Young on a rookie contract is a significant value.

Ignoring for the moment that they're not only in the same conference but the same division, what do you think would happen if the Jaguars made the 1.1 available in a Watson trade?

[bjd5211]

It won't happen because they are in the same division, but that aside I'm not sure if the Jags would do it given the opportunity. Yes Watson > Lawrence right now clearly, but Lawrence > Watson is very much a potential outcome in the future; plus having to pay Watson the same amount annually over the next 5 years as you will have to pay Lawrence for the entirety of his rookie deal is a big factor. The Jags are probably better off just rolling with Lawrence and all their cap space and extra picks rather than cashing them all in for Watson.

[CGW]

It won't happen because they are in the same division, but that aside I'm not sure if the Jags would do it given the opportunity. Yes Watson > Lawrence right now clearly, but Lawrence > Watson is very much a potential outcome in the future; plus having to pay Watson the same amount annually over the next 5 years as you will have to pay Lawrence for the entirety of his rookie deal is a big factor. The Jags are probably better off just rolling with Lawrence and all their cap space and extra picks rather than cashing them all in for Watson.

Agreed. Why pay Watson a mega contract and give the Texans assets on top when you can just keep your 1.01 and pay Lawrence peanuts in comparison.

[nathanq42]

It won't happen because they are in the same division, but that aside I'm not sure if the Jags would do it given the opportunity. Yes Watson > Lawrence right now clearly, but Lawrence > Watson is very much a potential outcome in the future; plus having to pay Watson the same amount annually over the next 5 years as you will have to pay Lawrence for the entirety of his rookie deal is a big factor. The Jags are probably better off just rolling with Lawrence and all their cap space and extra picks rather than cashing them all in for Watson.

Agreed. Why pay Watson a mega contract and give the Texans assets on top when you can just keep your 1.01 and pay Lawrence peanuts in comparison.

See:
*long list of QB's that have busted*

We say it every year about a tonne of top QB prospects, very few will ever get to Watson's level. It's all about risk, you pay up to be sure you have a HoF caliber QB in Watson for presumably a long time, or you take a gamble that Lawrence is the real deal and isnt a bust like Darnold, Sanchez, Bortles, RG3, Bradford, Trubisky, Mariota, Winston, Wentz (assuming 2020 is his new norm), Mayfield (has been a rollercoaster), and those are all only top 5 NFL picks in the last decade. Obviously Lawrence is about the most highly touted QB to come into the league in a long time, but no one is a sure fire prospect (see Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Tavon Austin, Reggie Bush and T-Rich)

Me personally I would gamble on Lawrence, but I dont have nearly as much skin in the game as the actual decision makers do. But there 100% is reason to go Watson over Lawrence

[mild]

Agreed. Why pay Watson a mega contract and give the Texans assets on top when you can just keep your 1.01 and pay Lawrence peanuts in comparison.

And further to that - why solve the Texans problems for them when Watson is one more supreme tizzy-fit away from being out of your division for good - and meanwhile you're a team on the rise with a bunch of really great players under 25 - and you get to build around Lawrence whilst holding the most cap space in the league.

Texans will want to get him out of their division and possibly their conference with an eventual trade. The Jags are cheering for this outcome all the way.

[AussieMate]

I really want one of these to happen not because I own Watson, but because it would be entertaining as hell to see such a big trade go down, and I need something to fill the void till the not-combine and draft

[The MAC Machine]

Could Carson Wentz and the 1.6 be enough for Watson?

Then trade Hurts to recoup some picks?


OR


Colts receive
Carson Wentz

Texans receive 1.6 (PHI) 1.21 (IND), Jalen Hurts and some added assets from Indy

Eagles receive
Watson


Watson is out of the conference, the Texans get a young QB with upside with some picks, the Colts and Eagles get a franchise QB.

A man can only wish.....

[Ice]

Wentz's market value is next to zero. He has a huge contract and he was one of the very worst QB's in the NFL last year. Hopefully the Texans new GM isn't a complete idiot. Hurts isn't remotely close to Watson.

Watson is going to command value much higher than the 1.1 if traded.

[bjd5211]

Could Carson Wentz and the 1.6 be enough for Watson?

Then trade Hurts to recoup some picks?


OR


Colts receive
Carson Wentz

Texans receive 1.6 (PHI) 1.21 (IND), Jalen Hurts and some added assets from Indy

Eagles receive
Watson


Watson is out of the conference, the Texans get a young QB with upside with some picks, the Colts and Eagles get a franchise QB.

A man can only wish.....

No.

[jenkins.math]

When OBJ was traded everyone was shocked that the price wasn't higher. Same for Khalil Mack. If Watson is traded, I don't think the haul is going to be as large as everyone on here seems to think. That being said we haven't seen a young top flight QB traded so maybe this ushers in an entirely new era of player movement in the NFL.

[honcho55]

When OBJ was traded everyone was shocked that the price wasn't higher. Same for Khalil Mack. If Watson is traded, I don't think the haul is going to be as large as everyone on here seems to think. That being said we haven't seen a young top flight QB traded so maybe this ushers in an entirely new era of player movement in the NFL.

Id argue this is because diva WRs aren’t near as valuable in the NFL as the general public thinks, and being FF fans we might be even more jaded.

I thought the bears stole Mack at the time. It looks a little more even in retrospect but it was still a cheap price for them imo.

QB is a different beast. Elite QB is different still. Elite *and* this young is... I can’t think of anything close as a precedent. I’ll dig around after work, or if anyone else has a better memory?

[CubfanAA]

When OBJ was traded everyone was shocked that the price wasn't higher. Same for Khalil Mack. If Watson is traded, I don't think the haul is going to be as large as everyone on here seems to think. That being said we haven't seen a young top flight QB traded so maybe this ushers in an entirely new era of player movement in the NFL.

Id argue this is because diva WRs aren’t near as valuable in the NFL as the general public thinks, and being FF fans we might be even more jaded.

I thought the bears stole Mack at the time. It looks a little more even in retrospect but it was still a cheap price for them imo.

QB is a different beast. Elite QB is different still. Elite *and* this young is... I can’t think of anything close as a precedent. I’ll dig around after work, or if anyone else has a better memory?

The Jay Cutler trade is by far the closest to what a Watson deal would be. Young pro bowl QB that threw for 4500 yards and 25 TDs the year before the trade. He netted 2 1sts, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton. I would expect Watson to command a very similar haul. Watson has better stats than Cutler did, but all QB's have better stats today than QB's back then. Watson is probably considered a bit better than Cutler was at the time, but Cutler still had a year left on his rookie contract which Watson doesn't so 2 1sts, a 3rd, and a throwaway player is probably about right.

[ravn88]

When OBJ was traded everyone was shocked that the price wasn't higher. Same for Khalil Mack. If Watson is traded, I don't think the haul is going to be as large as everyone on here seems to think. That being said we haven't seen a young top flight QB traded so maybe this ushers in an entirely new era of player movement in the NFL.

Id argue this is because diva WRs aren’t near as valuable in the NFL as the general public thinks, and being FF fans we might be even more jaded.

I thought the bears stole Mack at the time. It looks a little more even in retrospect but it was still a cheap price for them imo.

QB is a different beast. Elite QB is different still. Elite *and* this young is... I can’t think of anything close as a precedent. I’ll dig around after work, or if anyone else has a better memory?

The Jay Cutler trade is by far the closest to what a Watson deal would be. Young pro bowl QB that threw for 4500 yards and 25 TDs the year before the trade. He netted 2 1sts, a 3rd, and Kyle Orton. I would expect Watson to command a very similar haul. Watson has better stats than Cutler did, but all QB's have better stats today than QB's back then. Watson is probably considered a bit better than Cutler was at the time, but Cutler still had a year left on his rookie contract which Watson doesn't so 2 1sts, a 3rd, and a throwaway player is probably about right.

I know it wont happen, but as a Colts fan we could afford this easy. Make it x 1sts for all i care.

[Ice]

When OBJ was traded everyone was shocked that the price wasn't higher. Same for Khalil Mack. If Watson is traded, I don't think the haul is going to be as large as everyone on here seems to think. That being said we haven't seen a young top flight QB traded so maybe this ushers in an entirely new era of player movement in the NFL.

My guess it will be higher. This is big business and winning a SB is extremely hard. Getting a player like Watson is nearly impossible and that is why he will command a kings ransom.

QB is far and away the most important position in football. Watson is in the top tier. When we see the 4 QB's in the playoffs it is crystal clear just how important the position really is to the sport. These days, it is nearly impossible to win without a great QB.

Watson may be stuck in Houston because of the resources needed to even make a trade.