Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[jjleurquin]

Yup. If Hubbard goes sub 4.40 it’ll probably be Hubbard.

I don’t think so. We know Hubbard is fast and most people are expecting ~4.35. Despite most people knowing he’s fast he’s not valued as high because that’s all he really offers.

Are they? I mean now that there’s not a combine, I could see him touching 4.35 hand-timed at a pro-day as a more likely outcome.

To be fair, while I think Hubbard will see a value spike if he runs fast, draft capital is going to be what reshapes ADP.

I agree if he gets draft capital it’ll give him a big boost. Yea most of what I’ve read has him in the 4.35 range, maybe he’s at 4.40 either way we already know he’s fast so I don’t think that’ll affect his stock too much. His concerns are more that he doesn’t create anything that isn’t already created for him.

[Pullo Vision]

One of the things I always try to find are players ready for the NFL right now. If they land on a team with snaps available, they could see a value spike. Think Justin Jefferson. The flip side of those would be a guy needing developmental work who gets stuck behind vets. Van Jefferson had good draft capital and landed in a good offense but had 3 WRs and 2 TEs ahead, pre Cooks trade.

This year, what players look most pro-ready?

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Najee

[Sriracha]

Van Jefferson's selling point was that he was polished

[tresskid84]

Bateman is probably one of the most pro-ready guys at WR.

[krtbuckeye]

At RB, I would say Harris is a day one workhorse. He’s a bit older coming in and already big, so should have a leg up physically and may have a quicker adjustment...mainly just adjusting to speed.

At WR, I would say Smith. I rate Chase higher than Smith overall, but Smith feels and looks a lot like Marvin Harrison. I could see him coming in right off the bat and being able to get open at will (as much as is possible at this level) with his great combination of route running and speed.

[DynastyDabbler]

I like Hubbard and Jermar Jefferson.

Jefferson will turn 21 in April. Really young but talented guy.

[MFundercover]

I like Gainwell a lot if he goes to a good spot. Only worry is that he is cast off as a 3rd down back only, but he looks really good to me.

[Pet_Smith]

I haven't looked a great deal into the RB's yet, so do what you like with this, but I like think people are sleeping on Hill. I don't really see a tier break between him and Harris / Etienne.
Great size and athleticism. Good production - just derailed by covid and an Air Raid system last year (but showed good receiving ability).

[stoneghost28]

After the big 3, the only guy I am targeting is Jemarr. That's it. I think the rest are probably roster cloggers, though i could see targeting Gainwell or Hubbard w/a roll of the dice, because both have shown the potential to be elite, based on a season or two, it's just there are stark concerns that both won't be anything more than satellite guys and if that's the case, I'd rather target a QB (Great QB class), or trade out for '23 picks (or trade up by combining with '22 picks).

[StripesOfKC]

Elijah Moore>Rondale Moore is my bold claim for my "guy"

I wouldn't be shocked if he crosses into the early 2nd round of the real draft

[zaner75]

Getting back into dynasty after a few years hiatus. Never had a successful process in selecting rookies WRs in previous years. Been reading and listening to a lot of analysis about this 2021 WR class. My concern is the size profiles of many of the top ranked players. Historically, there have not been that many successful short or slender WRs (5'10" and under, ~180 lbs and under).
With that, doesn't it seem like betting on an outlier profile with so many WR falling into those ranges? I'm not a devy or college follower so I don't know anything about the rookies beyond their measurable data (size, statistics). Are some of these smaller WRs capable of winning on the outside or are they going to be strictly limited to a slot role? There doesn't seem to be much doubt about D. Smith or Waddle, but what about guys like R. Moore, E. Moore, Atwell, Rodgers, Eskridge, S. Smith, M. Stevenson, Darden?
I'm not knowledgeable about analytics in comparing prospects. What are some other resources (podcasts, videos, articles) that shines a light for what analytics have a better correlation to hit rate success at WR?
Thanks in advance for any advice. Cheers.

[ThunderTung]

Any chance I come away with 2 of Carter, Jefferson, or Sermon with the 2.07 and 2.10 in 1qb?


Been watching RB film, here's my list..

1. Harris
2. Javonte
3. Etienne

4. Gainwell
5. Jemar
6. Sermon
7. Carter

8. Chuba

I don't watch college football so please trash my list if I'm way off.

I have ETN on par with Harris, but otherwise hard to say this list is way off base or anything

[Dynasty_Analyst]

There are nfl teams who pay people millions of dollars to analyze every player and they still get it wrong all the time. All you can is find a site or two you like and I trust the nfl and factor in where they draft players. Your gonna have a lot of misses but I wouldn’t overthink it. If a NFL gm with there job on the line picks some guy 10 picks before another, I’m probably gonna go with the earlier pick. That being said Ronald Moore I think has a chance to be special, the rest of the players you said I think are all crapshoots.

[Nanananananana]

I won’t touch Rondale Moore in the range that he will be going. He is sooooo fun to watch but he is tiny, injury prone and most of his production is based on volume. His Adot is super low and although he did rack up a lot of YAC, he averaged 10 yards per catch in college with supposedly 4.3 speed.

I don’t see NFL teams feeding a 5’8 WR 10 targets per game. If he lands with Shanahan or Reed sure then he is interesting but otherwise I’ll avoid him.

My advice, if you’re not super confident in your ability to choose between the prospects, would be wait for right around your draft day and try and trade the pick you’d spend on a WR for an established WR. Someone in an attainable range like Cortland Sutton or Dionte Johnson or something. Another thing to consider is that wide receiver is so deep nowadays there isn’t as much motivation to hit on one as there is a running back, especially these outlier types.

Your instinct is serving you well, I am avoiding most of the guys you mention unless your taking stabs later.