Zach Ertz - Is It Time his Value Wentz Down or Hurts So Good going forward?

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Anteaters
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Re: Ertz possibly on his way out with Wentz?

Postby Anteaters » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:26 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:38 pm
It’s possible that their read of the situation is that Ertz is getting cut, in which case, why trade for him and give up draft capital to pay more for him?
Possible.

OTOH, we can go through a huge list of NFL teams and ask why they would give up a 3rd/4th rounder to get a guy whose probably not better than the TEs already on their roster. You have to go through over half the NFL to find teams where Ertz is a significant upgrade at TE. And then we have to ignore the rebuilding teams who shouldn't give up draft capital to get a TE past his prime. At that point, we're left with maybe 4 or 5 teams that might want to give up a draft pick to get Ertz but I still doubt it would be a 3rd/4th.

How much better is Ertz than other free agent TEs this offseason?

BTW, I don't hate Ertz, and if I had him in fantasy, I might hold him too. But I wouldn't trade much to get him.
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Re: Ertz possibly on his way out with Wentz?

Postby CGW » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:53 am

Anteaters wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:26 am
OhCruelestRanter wrote:
Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:38 pm
It’s possible that their read of the situation is that Ertz is getting cut, in which case, why trade for him and give up draft capital to pay more for him?
Possible.

OTOH, we can go through a huge list of NFL teams and ask why they would give up a 3rd/4th rounder to get a guy whose probably not better than the TEs already on their roster. You have to go through over half the NFL to find teams where Ertz is a significant upgrade at TE. And then we have to ignore the rebuilding teams who shouldn't give up draft capital to get a TE past his prime. At that point, we're left with maybe 4 or 5 teams that might want to give up a draft pick to get Ertz but I still doubt it would be a 3rd/4th.

How much better is Ertz than other free agent TEs this offseason?

BTW, I don't hate Ertz, and if I had him in fantasy, I might hold him too. But I wouldn't trade much to get him.
Its unlikely anyone is giving up capital in the NFL for him. It was likely either a Wentz package or they cut him to save $4.7m.

As far as free agency goes, Hunter Henry is really the only attractive TE available. More speculative, maybe Everett and Jonnu.

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Re: Ertz possibly on his way out with Wentz?

Postby Vcize » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:08 am

Cameron Giles wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:22 am
SteelLake wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:09 am
I’d sell for a 3. I’m only in 2 leagues, but that seems like going rate for player like him in both. Having an elite TE is super valuable, but then there’s always tons of guys available for nearly nothing who put up same. I don’t really see likely scenario of ertz becoming elite again.

I’d understand if a believer and need more than a 3, but the “late first” discussion kind of shocked me, I won’t lie
Until this season, Ertz the last 5 seasons has at least 70 receptions and 800 receiving yards. That's high-end TE production. Add in a reasonable amount of TDs and you're talking about 175-190 PPR points. Those amount of points are good enough for Top 6 TE production the last 4 seasons.

It just doesn't make much sense that a TE with that upside and a proven track record, who isn't even old for positional standards is worth some random 3rd round rookie pick. 3rd round picks in a typical draft are usually roster clogger players who don't even play much or at all as rookies. In other words, if they even become fantasy relevant, you're excited.

Ertz is still good enough that he can go somewhere, play every down, and command 100+ targets.
This all makes sense when I read it, but man he just looks toast out there. He's 30 but he looks like he's 40 when he's running around.

Then again so does Gronk and he still managed to come back and put up a nice season. It's certainly possible Ertz resurrects his career somewhere else and at the cost of a 3rd maybe I'd take that chance, but I'm not paying anything more than that.

There have been some reasonable good players with ADPs in the 3rd round over the last 3 years. Goedert, J Allen, Andrews, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Gibson, Claypool, Herbert. That's 8 out of 36 picks over the last 3 years and I don't think I could fault someone for taking a ~20% chance on landing a nice young player like those guys over an ~xx% chance of Ertz coming back and being an aging mid/low TE1 at his upside.
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Re: Ertz possibly on his way out with Wentz?

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:50 pm

dynastyninja wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:36 pm
As an owner I wouldn't sell for a 2nd
*Update

He sold Moss for a '22 4th. So the net on the deal for HIM is...

Give 2.10 + '22 4th
Receive Ertz + 3.05


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