Mike Evans - The Dislike Is Real for this Perennial WR1 - Discussion Thread

[OhCruelestRanter]

Ppr 1QB
Just received an offer for my Evans, 2021 1.5 + Mims

No way I'd trade 1.05 AND Mins for Mike Evans. Honestly, in the off-season, I wouldn't even trade the 1.05.. so this is a high offer.
Mike Evans has been TD dependent, besides his big late season blowup, Evans was a low end WR2. I get he looked healthier towards the end of season, but I'm not given up 1.05 plus for him.

Sure, that might be team dependent, but on value alone I'd rather the 1.05. during the season, if Evans looks worth a 1st draft pick, then I'd make the trade, but not in the offseason.

This is crazy talk to me. This really speaks to the undervaluing Evans gets

I disagree with the timing described in this post. Veterans are cheaper in the off-season and more expensive in-season.

Who are you taking at 1.05 that you prefer to Evans?

[willistylz1979]

No way I'd trade 1.05 AND Mins for Mike Evans. Honestly, in the off-season, I wouldn't even trade the 1.05.. so this is a high offer.
Mike Evans has been TD dependent, besides his big late season blowup, Evans was a low end WR2. I get he looked healthier towards the end of season, but I'm not given up 1.05 plus for him.

Sure, that might be team dependent, but on value alone I'd rather the 1.05. during the season, if Evans looks worth a 1st draft pick, then I'd make the trade, but not in the offseason.

This is crazy talk to me. This really speaks to the undervaluing Evans gets

I disagree with the timing described in this post. Veterans are cheaper in the off-season and more expensive in-season.

Who are you taking at 1.05 that you prefer to Evans?

Honestly there is really no one on his talent level in this draft at 1.05.
I’d probably be looking at a Waddle (not a fan at 5) Pitts being a TE and the period for return on TE has been debated ad nauseam.
Then you have Bateman Moore, probably J. Williams would be the pick as I’m pretty high on him.
If someone fell like Chase/Harris/ETN/Smith then maybe that changes my feelings on 1.5 vs Evans.
Didn’t pull the trigger as I think I can get a better deal even if I hold, if Godwin leaves then I think that drives up Evans value immensely!
As stated in quite a few threads about Evans nobody’s really valuing him with what his worth it actually is.

[Cameron Giles]

Only way I wouldn't trade 1.05/Mims for Evans is if my team wasn't close to contention. Evans is still in the WR1 mix, even if he played catchup towards the end of the season.

Mims looked encouraging last year, but he's probably still just worth a late first-early 2nd right now in value. At 1.05 in standard/PPR, Etienne, Harris, Smith, and Chase are probably off the board. So, you're looking at Waddle, Pitts, Bateman, Moore..

If you're close to competing, that's a pretty reasonable price for a player who's been a consistent WR1 the last 5-6 years.

[willistylz1979]

Only way I wouldn't trade 1.05/Mims for Evans is if my team wasn't close to contention. Evans is still in the WR1 mix, even if he played catchup towards the end of the season.

Mims looked encouraging last year, but he's probably still just worth a late first-early 2nd right now in value. At 1.05 in standard/PPR, Etienne, Harris, Smith, and Chase are probably off the board. So, you're looking at Waddle, Pitts, Bateman, Moore..

If you're close to competing, that's a pretty reasonable price for a player who's been a consistent WR1 the last 5-6 years.

I won championship in 2019, 2020 was middle of pack. Where do you feel I stand this year and is it even worth moving Evans? Thanks!

Team:

QB Rodgers, Wentz
RB Jacobs, J.Robinson, Penny, Mack, J.Williams
WR MT,Cooper,Evans,Golladay, Cooks, Reagor, Shenault, Mike Williams, Harry
TE Hock, Ebron

21 Picks 1.3 -2.3- 3.3

[ravn88]

Nope stay with that team, your where very unluckey with injureys

[snaps06]

I'll never understand the hate. He was a common denominator on both of my championship teams this year. All he does is produce, and he can be had for cheap every year. Too bad in my other leagues he's already owned by someone that thinks like I do about him. If I could have 100% ownership I would.

[snaps06]

Ppr 1QB
Just received an offer for my Evans, 2021 1.5 + Mims

No way I'd trade 1.05 AND Mins for Mike Evans. Honestly, in the off-season, I wouldn't even trade the 1.05.. so this is a high offer.
Mike Evans has been TD dependent, besides his big late season blowup, Evans was a low end WR2. I get he looked healthier towards the end of season, but I'm not given up 1.05 plus for him.

Sure, that might be team dependent, but on value alone I'd rather the 1.05. during the season, if Evans looks worth a 1st draft pick, then I'd make the trade, but not in the offseason.

This is exactly how teams end up in a perpetual rebuild. I used to think the same way.

[murphysxm]

Ppr 1QB
Just received an offer for my Evans, 2021 1.5 + Mims

No way I'd trade 1.05 AND Mins for Mike Evans. Honestly, in the off-season, I wouldn't even trade the 1.05.. so this is a high offer.
Mike Evans has been TD dependent, besides his big late season blowup, Evans was a low end WR2. I get he looked healthier towards the end of season, but I'm not given up 1.05 plus for him.

Sure, that might be team dependent, but on value alone I'd rather the 1.05. during the season, if Evans looks worth a 1st draft pick, then I'd make the trade, but not in the offseason.

This is exactly how teams end up in a perpetual rebuild. I used to think the same way.

In his 7 NFL seasons, he has passed 1,000 yards every season. He is not a low end #2. He is everything you could possibly hope for with a 1.05. Is he your best WR, probably not, but you absolutely know what you are getting. In his same draft class the Packers took Davante Adams, he has crossed 1,000 yards twice in that same span. His consitency carries a ton of value.

[krtbuckeye]

I get people not wanting to rely on Evans as their WR1 week to week, just because up and down week to week numbers, but the ups he has are usually week winners and his EOY totals always level up. I think he gets knocked and undervalued due to the weekly rollercoaster ride (I reference that in a lot of trade offers I see him in if the team receiving doesn't have a more consistent weekly floor option to pair with him), but the WR position overall can be this way, Evans is just the more extreme example of weekly volatility. All that said, I'd give 1.05/Mims everyday and twice on Sunday for Evans.

[Sriracha]

I get people not wanting to rely on Evans as their WR1 week to week, just because up and down week to week numbers, but the ups he has are usually week winners and his EOY totals always level up. I think he gets knocked and undervalued due to the weekly rollercoaster ride (I reference that in a lot of trade offers I see him in if the team receiving doesn't have a more consistent weekly floor option to pair with him), but the WR position overall can be this way, Evans is just the more extreme example of weekly volatility. All that said, I'd give 1.05/Mims everyday and twice on Sunday for Evans.

I "hate" on Evans because he's always been an inefficient receiver in terms of YPRR. This was one of his best years, and he still finished at 1.78 YPRR. The WR talent clustered in this area? TY Hilton, Diontae Johnson, Allen Lazard, Richie James, Tim Patrick.

Anytime you're not efficient you run the risk of being usurped by a more talented and efficient receiver.

This is also why I've hated on Zach Ertz for most of his career; and he while he kept producing I don't think it's a mistake that he's fallen off faster than most people expect.

I still value him highly (mid WR2 in dyno), but he will never be grouped with the elite WRs Davante (2.97), AJB (2.76), Julio Jones (2.7) for me until he becomes more efficient with his playing time.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I get people not wanting to rely on Evans as their WR1 week to week, just because up and down week to week numbers, but the ups he has are usually week winners and his EOY totals always level up. I think he gets knocked and undervalued due to the weekly rollercoaster ride (I reference that in a lot of trade offers I see him in if the team receiving doesn't have a more consistent weekly floor option to pair with him), but the WR position overall can be this way, Evans is just the more extreme example of weekly volatility. All that said, I'd give 1.05/Mims everyday and twice on Sunday for Evans.

I "hate" on Evans because he's always been an inefficient receiver in terms of YPRR. This was one of his best years, and he still finished at 1.78 YPRR. The WR talent clustered in this area? TY Hilton, Diontae Johnson, Allen Lazard, Richie James, Tim Patrick.

Anytime you're not efficient you run the risk of being usurped by a more talented and efficient receiver.

This is also why I've hated on Zach Ertz for most of his career; and he while he kept producing I don't think it's a mistake that he's fallen off faster than most people expect.

I still value him highly (mid WR2 in dyno), but he will never be grouped with the elite WRs Davante (2.97), AJB (2.76), Julio Jones (2.7) for me until he becomes more efficient with his playing time.

Mike Evans has finished in the top 6 in DVOA in 4 separate seasons. The idea that Evans is inefficient is a bad one.

[Sriracha]

Mike Evans has finished in the top 6 in DVOA in 4 separate seasons. The idea that Evans is inefficient is a bad one.

You've got me interested, what is DVOA (for WRs) and how predictive is it?

[OhCruelestRanter]

Mike Evans has finished in the top 6 in DVOA in 4 separate seasons. The idea that Evans is inefficient is a bad one.

You've got me interested, what is DVOA (for WRs) and how predictive is it?

Efficiency metric from FootballOutsiders. The primary benefit is that it looks at every play and compares it to what a “successful” play is in that situation, (IE a four yard catch on 3rd and 3 is more valuable than one on 3rd and 12) and then takes that data and adjusts it for the quality of defenses faced.

You can read more here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

[Pac_Eddy]

Mike Evans has finished in the top 6 in DVOA in 4 separate seasons. The idea that Evans is inefficient is a bad one.

You've got me interested, what is DVOA (for WRs) and how predictive is it?

Efficiency metric from FootballOutsiders. The primary benefit is that it looks at every play and compares it to what a “successful” play is in that situation, (IE a four yard catch on 3rd and 3 is more valuable than one on 3rd and 12) and then takes that data and adjusts it for the quality of defenses faced.

You can read more here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

I always thought of Evans as inefficient, but I think I was using that term wrong. He is boom or bust, but efficient. Has huge weeks and poor weeks, feels like more than most top WRs. But he gets big yardage & scores on fewer targets & catches.

[OhCruelestRanter]

You've got me interested, what is DVOA (for WRs) and how predictive is it?

Efficiency metric from FootballOutsiders. The primary benefit is that it looks at every play and compares it to what a “successful” play is in that situation, (IE a four yard catch on 3rd and 3 is more valuable than one on 3rd and 12) and then takes that data and adjusts it for the quality of defenses faced.

You can read more here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

I always thought of Evans as inefficient, but I think I was using that term wrong. He is boom or bust, but efficient. Has huge weeks and poor weeks, feels like more than most top WRs. But he gets big yardage & scores on fewer targets & catches.

1. This place would be much better if there were more posts like this. Thank you.

2. Does anybody have any data on how variable Evans’ week to week totals actually are relative to the average WR?