How do you evaluate rookies

[olmansmith]

Just finished my second year playing dynasty and its now very clear to me that "consensus" rankings for rookies are so much worse than for redraft fantasy (this is a pretty obvious fact in hindsight, if real NFL team miss so frequently in rookie draft, ofc we will too). I want to start evaluating rookies more myself so I have my own board to use rather than a mix of a dozen online rankings and ADPs I see, however, I don't watch much college football. Any tips from the community on:
1. how you evaluate rookies at different positions
2. any resources you use to look at them other than just watching a ton of college games? player highlights don't feel great since they only show the player at their best
3. any trusted youtubers or podcasts for rookie evaluation in the offseason

[HEADBANGER]

I subscribe to DLF premium (duh, right?) and Matt Waldman RSP. I watch some YouTube but agree with you those are highlight films, college competition is very different then NFL levels so that does not help much other than help rank players I have as even may help me break the tie. Far as by different positions I really do not do that, DLF provides overall list so mostly use that. No Podcasts for me.

[nathanq42]

I tend to gravitate to certain archetypes within positions.

My go to WRs are route running technicians with honey covered hands (loved MT coming out but wasnt able to snag him)
IMO they just have the best risk/reward profile, athleticism is nice to have, but if you can win early in your career without needing it, you can win later in your career without it (see Larry Legend).

My go to RBs are jacks of all-trades, no one trait seems to standout at my RB position, but none have extreme weaknesses either (worst IMO is CEH's lack of athleticism)

TE is take what you can get, I lucked into Waller 2 offseasons ago, and I took Hock over AJB due to need (at the time my TEs were Burton, Doyle, and Rudolph) and Hock seemed like the athletic size speed freak that could do just about anything you could ask of him

QB is the same as TE, I dont play SF/2QB so I have really neglected the position. But the new archetype that seems to
be cannon of an arm with solid mobility to extend plays (see Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Rodgers, Wilson)

So with that said I'll watch a couple cutups/highlights to see how the player goes about his business, but mostly itll be how they have improved their stats Y/Y (have they boosted their DR over time, improved per touch efficiency, has an increase in workload reduced their per touch efficiency, have they picked up many nagging injuries as their workload has increased, have they earned a higher workload, etc)

[Paul717]

I subscribe to DLF premium (duh, right?) and Matt Waldman RSP. I watch some YouTube but agree with you those are highlight films, college competition is very different then NFL levels so that does not help much other than help rank players I have as even may help me break the tie. Far as by different positions I really do not do that, DLF provides overall list so mostly use that. No Podcasts for me.

I'm also a fan of Waldman's RSP yearly publication. Found a thread on it here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=157861 in case the OP wanted to check out some opinions.

Also love DLF (duh) but admittedly am not a premium member. Will have to check that out. DLF forums can unearth some rookie gems to grab in your later rounds. For example this thread: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=153302

I like the NFL channel on Sirius XM radio. But you'd have to listen for hours / days to hear about every rookie.

Of course the best evaluation method might be good old watching them play in the NFL. If you happen to draft late August it would be worthwhile to watch at least the first 1 or 2 preseason games (the number of preseason games may well shrink in the future, but you get the idea). It's especially useful to see rookies playing WITH and AGAINST first team units. I've never been in a league that drafts before late August but I'm sure there are many. In that situation you might lean more heavily on ADP. Singularly we all make mistakes but on average, ADP can be a good starting tool.

[Bronco Billy]

I read a bunch of scouting reports on a player, looking for consensus on strengths and weaknesses (and it’s not unusual that different scouting reports will provide diametrically opposite assessments of some traits). Then I look to watch game film of that player against better opponents. All 22 film is the best IMO. I’ll check highlight reels at times but usually don’t get much out of them - I’m looking for when a player is in a challenging situation and how they respond since that’s much closer to what we’ll see in the NFL.

I pay very close attention to footwork on all players. I watch QBs for their vision, working progressions, arm strength (particularly the longer out routes), accuracy, and leverage when throwing. I check skill guys for their vision, hip looseness, how aggressive they are in contact situations, balance, and how they handle upper and lower body hits.

I’ll check stats - usually per play type stats like ypa or ypc - and check measurables pretty much only for red flags. If they’ve got elite traits those will have shown up in game tape.

I’m way more concerned about if a player looks like a football player in tough situations than I am about 70 yd passes, runs, or catches. And I’ll put much more stock in talent than I will in situation. Talent doesn’t change in a willing player barring injury. Situation almost always does.

[palevermilion]

3. any trusted youtubers or podcasts for rookie evaluation in the offseason

For YouTube, I always just search "Player name vs". There are a few people who cut up a player's entire televised game and show every play they're involved in. It's not a highlight reel, just a 7-10 minute video showing every play. I find that most helpful in terms of "watching film". I'm not one who watches college ball, so it's a good way to see how a player performed.

[killer_of_giants]

first of all, i don't pretend to be any good at evaluating rookies.
but what's the fun in making other people decide for me? might as well give them my teams to manage.

i loosely follow college football, enough to know a few big names, but whole games are out of the question.
after getting an idea of the top prospects, i search for xxx against yyy all snaps/targets videos and watch a lot of those (prioritize the ones where yyy has a good defense, and xxx's "down" games, everyone looks great if they have 200 yards and 3 TDs), sorting them up a bit. i will end up with some guys i have crush on, some that i'd gladly have on my team, some "meh", and some i'd stay away (how's that for tiers?!).

then i will look for counterpoints to my opinions, just so that i can go back and evaluate if i was being blinded by something, some players will go up or down, some players will stay the same, and often i stumble on players i hadn't considered, which is great. i don't have any go-to names, i mainly look for opinions contrasting mine and do a brief check that whoever's talking isn't a total melt (if they look like they think they're the betterest, they generally are).

i try to do most of this BEFORE the combine, to stay as neutral as possible and avoid hype trains. combine numbers will rarely change anything, unless they're appalling.

when i have a rough idea based on watching them play, i will look at some stats (especially for WRs) like breakout age and dominator, and look for red flags there. if i see any, i try to add some context (terrible line, what sort of competition, qb play...) and that may result in downticking or upticking some prospects.

after that, i take note of when they're drafted. nfl teams bleep up all the time, but it's worth taking note of their opinion, they're the ones who lose their job if they make poor decisions, not the guys sitting in front of mike.

i try not to give too much importance to landing spots, although it does alter things a bit.

i've come to the conclusion (philosophically, at least) that rookie ADP should only be used to gauge the possiblity of getting the player you want if you trade back, but if no one wants to trade up, just pick the player you want, even if it is considered a reach.

[Bronco Billy]

3. any trusted youtubers or podcasts for rookie evaluation in the offseason

For YouTube, I always just search "Player name vs". There are a few people who cut up a player's entire televised game and show every play they're involved in. It's not a highlight reel, just a 7-10 minute video showing every play. I find that most helpful in terms of "watching film". I'm not one who watches college ball, so it's a good way to see how a player performed.

Good comment.

Here’s an example from a player that I’m really high on - Javonte Williams. This is one of his low production games where NC’s O-line was way overmatched against Virginia.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f-XHonlbh ... Astronauts

You get to see him run in situations that could be very similar to Sundays. The footwork, balance, running posture, aggressiveness are all on display in running, catching, and pass protection. This kind of tape is way more valuable than highlight reels IMO. And damn this kid is fun to watch run.

[olmansmith]

Hah as always, I love how everyone has completely different ways of going about this. Thanks for the tips! Probably will end up with some blended version of the above suggestions.

[PTW32]

I start by making a list of players in excel.

Players that stand out to me while watching college football, players mentioned in different threads on this site, skill position guys going in the first 3 rounds of NFL mock drafts.

Then I add infomation like height, weight, player comps, combine numbers, draft capital and team once it happens.

At that point I watch some film and read opinions on the guys im interested in.

[cantguardjake]

Pick a player who looks good then justify to myself why they are an outlier to every analytical red flag that they have