Fournette - what to do with him

[dondickenson]

RoJo is a significantly better player than Fournette, who once again showed he doesn’t really belong as a starter/top 30-40 RB in the league. I mean, against a dogsh*t run defense(one of the worst in the league) in heavy cover formations, here was his line:

9 carries, 32 yards, 3.6ypc
5/7 receiving, 27 yards, 5.4ypr
1 extremely careless and embarrassing drop that led to INT

With RoJo being declared questionable pregame with a quad injury, Arians said that RoJo, the starter, would cede that role to Fournette and that they’d see how RoJo did with a few carries. *Arians said this pregame, so this was the plan based on the injury sustained in week 3 of preseason. RoJo didn’t do well and fumbled.

Basically, I think this game meant nothing for those RBs. Once RoJo is healthy we will see the real plan for them, which I think ends up being as expected: 10-15 carries and a target or two per game for RoJo, and 5-10 carries and 2-3 targets per game for Fournette, with Bernard taking on about 15-20% of snaps in 3rd down and 2;00 situations.

Edit: it sounds crazy, but I would recommend buying low on RoJo as a backup/flex option on your roster, as well as Bernard as an even deeper bench guy esp in PPR. And selling Fournette to anyone that isn’t clued in to know about the RoJo injury report

[FantasyFreak]

RoJo is a significantly better player than Fournette, who once again showed he doesn’t really belong as a starter/top 30-40 RB in the league. I mean, against a dogsh*t run defense(one of the worst in the league) in heavy cover formations, here was his line:

9 carries, 32 yards, 3.6ypc
5/7 receiving, 27 yards, 5.4ypr
1 extremely careless and embarrassing drop that led to INT

With RoJo being declared questionable pregame with a quad injury, Arians said that RoJo, the starter, would cede that role to Fournette and that they’d see how RoJo did with a few carries. *Arians said this pregame, so this was the plan based on the injury sustained in week 3 of preseason. RoJo didn’t do well and fumbled.

Basically, I think this game meant nothing for those RBs. Once RoJo is healthy we will see the real plan for them, which I think ends up being as expected: 10-15 carries and a target or two per game for RoJo, and 5-10 carries and 2-3 targets per game for Fournette, with Bernard taking on about 15-20% of snaps in 3rd down and 2;00 situations.

Edit: it sounds crazy, but I would recommend buying low on RoJo as a backup/flex option on your roster, as well as Bernard as an even deeper bench guy esp in PPR. And selling Fournette to anyone that isn’t clued in to know about the RoJo injury report

I totally agree. I had no idea about the quad thing until a few minutes ago, as I had to work last night, and got home about half time. Unfortunately I started Rojo in some deeper leagues, where you need to start 3 RB's, as I had just lost Gus, and Ekeler is a question mark. Rojo looked great in that pre-season game, I had no idea he got hurt during it, I just assumed he was taken out because it was a cameo appearance. Not much coverage about it on the FF platforms, to my knowledge.

[abloom]

Yep. Arians did this last year, too. Rojo will be back in next game. I still firmly believe (as do all the analytics), that Rojo is the better runner by quite a bit, but Arians goes all Coughlin on Rojo with the fumbles, though he doesn't really fumble all that much.

I don't think either guy is miles better than the other. I think Fournette will get more time, though, because he's more predictable and consistent. He's also got a good relationship with TB12.

I mean, Rojo graded out as one of the top runners last year (rushing grade only), and Fournette was miles below him.

One thing I wasn't aware of, was that Rojo was deemed a "game time decision" by Arians, with an injury, so that may have had something to do with it as well. He said he'd give him some time and see if he could go, and how he did, if he played.

Arians also mentioned that after the fumble rojo wasn't mentally able to get past it. No idea if this is the truth but rojo definitely looked devastated on tv because of the fumble. No clue if it was because he knew he was going to be benched anyways or not.

It was also interesting that Fournette got the start and a carry on opening drive but then rojo went in for the second drive (or set of downs).

I think right now the carries are rojos to lose, the problem is when he loses them he seems to lose all of them (on a game to game basis)

[FantasyFreak]

I don't think either guy is miles better than the other. I think Fournette will get more time, though, because he's more predictable and consistent. He's also got a good relationship with TB12.

I mean, Rojo graded out as one of the top runners last year (rushing grade only), and Fournette was miles below him.

One thing I wasn't aware of, was that Rojo was deemed a "game time decision" by Arians, with an injury, so that may have had something to do with it as well. He said he'd give him some time and see if he could go, and how he did, if he played.

Arians also mentioned that after the fumble rojo wasn't mentally able to get passed it. No idea if this is the truth but rojo definitely looked devastated on tv because of the fumble. No clue if it was because he knew he was going to be benched anyways or not.

It was also interesting that Fournette got the start and a carry on opening drive but then rojo went in for the second drive (or set of downs).

I think right now the carries are rojos to lose, the problem is when he loses them he seems to lose all of them (on a game to game basis)

Rojo got the first drive in the pre-season week 3 test run. Fournette got the first drive due to Rojo's injury, he specifically mentioned that being a factor.

Agree with the last sentence, too.

[The MAC Machine]

I think where Fournette's value really shines through is that he is a better rusher than Giovanni and a better catcher than Rojo. When Fournette is in the game you dont really know what is going to happen as a defense and there is an advantage to that. I will say this again, but a drop is not as detrimental to a WR or RB as a fumble is - ESPECIALLY TO AN RB. And for anyone who wants to point out the drop, I think we should also mention that Fournette bailed Brady out big time on a catch later in the game. Drops happen to everyone, even those who are supposed to be the best at catching. Fumbles simply do not.

[FantasyFreak]

I think where Fournette's value really shines through is that he is a better rusher than Giovanni and a better catcher than Rojo. When Fournette is in the game you dont really know what is going to happen as a defense and there is an advantage to that. I will say this again, but a drop is not as detrimental to a WR or RB as a fumble is - ESPECIALLY TO AN RB. And for anyone who wants to point out the drop, I think we should also mention that Fournette bailed Brady out big time on a catch later in the game. Drops happen to everyone, even those who are supposed to be the best at catching. Fumbles simply do not.

I agree with this. However Rojo doesn't fumble all that often, and he's just a much more explosive runner at this stage of the game. I think there will be games where Rojo goes over 20 carries, and others where He and Lenny split more evenly, it will be game plan specific, and of course score line specific. If they are up 21 in the 4th quarter for instance, vs being a 3 point game. The Bucs are aiming to play 20 games this year, so they will be using all 3 backs, we can be pretty confident in that.

[dondickenson]

I think where Fournette's value really shines through is that he is a better rusher than Giovanni and a better catcher than Rojo. When Fournette is in the game you dont really know what is going to happen as a defense and there is an advantage to that. I will say this again, but a drop is not as detrimental to a WR or RB as a fumble is - ESPECIALLY TO AN RB. And for anyone who wants to point out the drop, I think we should also mention that Fournette bailed Brady out big time on a catch later in the game. Drops happen to everyone, even those who are supposed to be the best at catching. Fumbles simply do not.

Fournette is an absolutely terrible runner. In no way do I think he is better than Bernard carrying the ball. Fournette honestly may be the worst active roster rusher of the ball at the RB position in the NFL at this point. Check the stats, especially advanced stats. Watch the tape. He is a net negative on the offense.

Edit: okay maybe a bit hyperbolic but honestly Fournette is a major net negative on the offense. He doesn’t belong on an NFL field imo with what he brings

[The MAC Machine]

I think where Fournette's value really shines through is that he is a better rusher than Giovanni and a better catcher than Rojo. When Fournette is in the game you dont really know what is going to happen as a defense and there is an advantage to that. I will say this again, but a drop is not as detrimental to a WR or RB as a fumble is - ESPECIALLY TO AN RB. And for anyone who wants to point out the drop, I think we should also mention that Fournette bailed Brady out big time on a catch later in the game. Drops happen to everyone, even those who are supposed to be the best at catching. Fumbles simply do not.

Fournette is an absolutely terrible runner. In no way do I think he is better than Bernard carrying the ball. Fournette honestly may be the worst active roster rusher of the ball at the RB position in the NFL at this point. Check the stats, especially advanced stats. Watch the tape. He is a net negative on the offense.

Edit: okay maybe a bit hyperbolic but honestly Fournette is a major net negative on the offense. He doesn’t belong on an NFL field imo with what he brings

Good thing that the only people it matters to is the Bucs coaching staff It seems like they disagree. Otherwise, Bernard would be the backup to Rojo.

[PigeonBoys]

Interesting on the fumble front as Arians puts dudes in the doghouse that fumble. Rojo fumble rate is on pace with habitual fumbler Adrian Peterson with a career rate of 76.16 for rojo vs 72.77 for AD. Fournette on the other hand had a fumble rate of 315.6. Obviously there’s time for rojo to fix that but LF takes care of the ball and that might mean something to BA. While I agree rojo is the superior back, he just can’t seem to get out of his own way.

[ArrylT]

I think this week is going to be a very interesting week for the Buccaneers RBs - as in no idea how this is going to play out

The Patriots are only allowing 17 fantasy points to QBs, 21 to RBs and 27 to WR. Now they havent yet played anyone elite except Kamara (who got 20 points off them). No 100 yard rushers, no 100 yard receiving games and no 300 yard passing games. Winston is the only QB to get 2 TD passes off them.

So basically we'll see (a) who they shut down this week and (b) who the Buccaneers want to use against them.

My hunch is that in a crucial game like this, and based off of last years playoffs, Fournette gets 17-22 touches this week and something like a 14-60, 3-30 stat line, with maybe 1 TD. So basically 100 yards from scrimmage and maybe 11-17 fantasy points. We'll see though.

[FantasyFreak]

I think this week is going to be a very interesting week for the Buccaneers RBs - as in no idea how this is going to play out

The Patriots are only allowing 17 fantasy points to QBs, 21 to RBs and 27 to WR. Now they havent yet played anyone elite except Kamara (who got 20 points off them). No 100 yard rushers, no 100 yard receiving games and no 300 yard passing games. Winston is the only QB to get 2 TD passes off them.

So basically we'll see (a) who they shut down this week and (b) who the Buccaneers want to use against them.

My hunch is that in a crucial game like this, and based off of last years playoffs, Fournette gets 17-22 touches this week and something like a 14-60, 3-30 stat line, with maybe 1 TD. So basically 100 yards from scrimmage and maybe 11-17 fantasy points. We'll see though.

Fournette is trusted in pass pro a lot more. He looks terrible with the ball in his hands, and provides nothing beyond what's blocked for him, but despite the fact Rojo is the much better runner who offers more explosiveness, I think Brady trusts Fournette more, because Rojo's few brain farts a game isn't tolerated by old man Tom. With Gio potentially being out, I think Rojo may see a few more first and or second down carries, but I expect Fournette to have the higher snap share again.

[ArrylT]

Fournette is now currently, and with MNF to come, RB11 in typical ppr formats.

He is a good example of when it is a good idea to break from the norm. The norm in recent years has been for the average owner to react too quickly and move off elite pedigreed assets due to short term uncertainty or clouded situations.

His ADP in 2021 has almost never broken the top 100 - although we'll see if November ADP will change this. This likely meant it was difficult for many owners to get even a late 1st for him prior to recent weeks.

Take August trades involving Fournette for example:

https://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/ ... er+results

Lots of Fournette for 2nds.

For a 1st round pedigreed RB with 2 1000 yard rushing seasons, 2 RB 1 seasons, good metrics, proven ability to catch receptions and on a high octane offence. The only question was opportunity being clouded by Jones/Bernard.

Even recent October trades show lots of volatility in his price

https://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/ ... er+results

Still seeing Fournette for 2nds, with some 1sts, and some really odd trades *shrugs*

While I dont usually like to include playoff data - I think it applies here because it shows a high pedigree player in the most important time of the season getting opportunity that should have been a reminder going into 2021.

From week 7 on through SB

137-544-7 47-347-1 (891 total yards)

Basically there was plenty of evidence for those that were willing to look deeper and pay attention to context that this was a feasible outcome in 2021 (and forward).

Next year he'll only be 27 - and with a lot less "tread" than many backs. If you own Fournette I strongly recommend not selling for anything less than a mid 1st (or player you value). Anything else - except if you're going into a total rebuild - is not likely to beneficial to you because Fournette possesses the ability to stick around for several more years and give consistent RB2 with RB1 upside production.

As for durability - Fournette has now played in 77% of all games since 2017 (54 of 70).

[ArrylT]

And just for fun some hype:

https://www.nfl.com/news/leonard-fourne ... in-offense

"Lenny's been really, really good, really solid -- run and pass, and pass protection," coach Bruce Arians said. "He's playing as a really good three-down back right now at a high level."

[The MAC Machine]

I cannnot wait until Fournette comes back strong next year. I think its funny how people turn their nose up to a RB who caught 76 passes last year and has shown high scoring potential. Ronald Jones out touched Fournette 220 to 133 and yet the TD split is 8 to 6 AND Fournette has more catches in 1 less game. He is better than Ronald Jones.....period.

Players like Fournette act out when the team sucks. I remember when people downgraded Randy Moss before he went to the Patriots because of his behavioral issues.....I remember buying Randy low that off season....WOOF! Rode that puppy to a championship. I think many of you are in for a rude awakening if Fournette lands in a solid spot.

I would hold him if you have him. And buy him if you can get him for cheap.

Anybody ready to admit that they were wrong about Fournette?

[FantasyFreak]

I cannnot wait until Fournette comes back strong next year. I think its funny how people turn their nose up to a RB who caught 76 passes last year and has shown high scoring potential. Ronald Jones out touched Fournette 220 to 133 and yet the TD split is 8 to 6 AND Fournette has more catches in 1 less game. He is better than Ronald Jones.....period.

Players like Fournette act out when the team sucks. I remember when people downgraded Randy Moss before he went to the Patriots because of his behavioral issues.....I remember buying Randy low that off season....WOOF! Rode that puppy to a championship. I think many of you are in for a rude awakening if Fournette lands in a solid spot.

I would hold him if you have him. And buy him if you can get him for cheap.

Anybody ready to admit that they were wrong about Fournette?

I mean, he's a decent back, but that offense is a juggernaut. He's not a back that elevates anything. He just rides the wave. He's nothing special, and I was a huge fan in college. Never really was the same after that sophomore year. He's a solid, but very unspectacular player. Let me put it this way. How do you honestly think he'd be doing on the Jets?