Way too Early 2021 Draft Thread

[zeeshan2]

Same here, but getting some 2016 vibes.

My concern is that two of the top guys- Smith and Waddle- have concerning analytical profiles.

I suspect I’m going to end up with a ton of Bateman.

Waddle's analytical profile was concerning to me at first, as well.

When you look closer, though.. he's actually a fairly good analytical prospect. He was the junior to the other 3 1st round Alabama WRs and still nearly broke out as a true freshman in the SEC (17% vs requisite 20%) while making PFF's All-Freshman team and grading out as one of their highest rated freshman WRs of all time; While his receiving production dropped the subsequent year he was still a special return man. Once Jeudy and Ruggs left he dominated, actually out producing the eventual Heisman trophy winner, Smith before he was lost for the regular season.

Devonta Smith is the guy who's analytical profile I can't really defend. Drafting him at 2 is betting on him being an analytical outlier... which I'm more or less ok with given that the sample size of receivers like him with his production profile is insanely small. I personally have him with Bateman behind Chase and Waddle, though.

So you have done way more study on this class than I have; who in your opinion has the best analytical profiles in this class? Also where can I find all this data?

[Sriracha]

So you have done way more study on this class than I have; who in your opinion has the best analytical profiles in this class? Also where can I find all this data?

Some of this depends on how you weigh certain factors.. but in general Chase is far and away the best analytical prospect in this class, followed by Bateman and Rondale Moore.

Based on expected draft capital there will likely be a leveling of the profiles once draft capital is added lumping these guys with Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Terrace Marshall... with Chase looking even better

[Pullo Vision]

I'm curious on rankings based purely on ceiling and purely on floor.

If you were ranking rookies based on talent ceiling, how would you rank? Don't care if there's a 3% hit chance, I'm thinking hard home run slugs, the guys with (immediate or eventual) elite talents.

If you're ranking based purely in the chance to be productive in the NFL, how do you rank? Not looking for the hard swing, but a slap to get on base. Not guys who could be elite first year or eventually but guys you'd be very confident would be productive right off, based (currently) only on their skill/talents.

Roughly speaking, I'm thinking H/W/S guys with varying NFL-functional skills vs guys with skills that might not be elite athletes.

[bjd5211]

Pitts
Lawrence
Lance
Fields
Chase
Waddle
Wilson

Are the guys I see as having very high ceilings among the notable names, obviously there are other good players who could be really good, but those are the ones I look at right now and can envision them becoming potentially the #1 guy at their position or in the discussion.

Lawrence and Pitts are the only 2 in the class that I have zero doubts are going to be at least really solid starters.

[krtbuckeye]

Im going to have a bit of overlap on these lists, but that pretty much would just indicate I think a guy is close to can’t miss if he’s on both.

Based on ceiling:

QB- Lawrence, Fields, Wilson
RB- Etienne
WR- Chase, Bateman, Waddle, R. Moore
TE- Pitts

Based on floor:

QB- Lawrence, Fields, Jones
RB- Harris, Williams (if he lands in a starting role)
WR- Chase, Smith, Marshall
TE- n/a, too much history of talent and college production not translating to the NFL to feel sold on any TE having a great floor for me.

[Pet_Smith]

I agree with ETN and Harris fitting this perfectly.

Ceiling - ETN the pick
Floor - Harris.

Not sure with the WR's - I'd put them all in the ceiling category, but that's on my lack of ability to asses lol

[dustyroads]

I'm curious on rankings based purely on ceiling and purely on floor.

If you were ranking rookies based on talent ceiling, how would you rank? Don't care if there's a 3% hit chance, I'm thinking hard home run slugs, the guys with (immediate or eventual) elite talents.

If you're ranking based purely in the chance to be productive in the NFL, how do you rank? Not looking for the hard swing, but a slap to get on base. Not guys who could be elite first year or eventually but guys you'd be very confident would be productive right off, based (currently) only on their skill/talents.

Roughly speaking, I'm thinking H/W/S guys with varying NFL-functional skills vs guys with skills that might not be elite athletes.

Personal rankings based on ceiling would be similar to what BJD posted. Pitts, Lawrence, Fields, Chase, Smith, Lance, ETN. But in response to the bolded part, these ceiling rankings at the top tend to be the opposite of how I feel for players like Smith, ETN, Lance. I think my true ranks reflect that where I'm drafting impacts how I look at ceiling vs. floor. In the 1st and often times 2nd round, I prefer to lean a bit towards high floor as they are the safer plays and I think missing on 1st round picks can be brutal on your roster, especially if doing it multiple years in a row. I'd rather wind up with a definite WR2/3 for 6-8 years out of that 1st round pick than risk getting nothing while taking a swing at a potentially WR1 with more variability. By end of round 2, and definitely round 3, I'll shift my rankings to push up higher ceiling guys (and also reach further bypassing consensus "value" to get my guy), as the hit rates tend to get lower and lower in the later rounds it's been my strategy to swing for the fences with these picks more knowing a hit could be a difference maker on the roster, whereas a hit here on a high floor guy may also only have the upside of being a matchup based flex play or a bye week fill-in.

[wickerkat1212]

So you have done way more study on this class than I have; who in your opinion has the best analytical profiles in this class? Also where can I find all this data?

Some of this depends on how you weigh certain factors.. but in general Chase is far and away the best analytical prospect in this class, followed by Bateman and Rondale Moore.

Based on expected draft capital there will likely be a leveling of the profiles once draft capital is added lumping these guys with Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Terrace Marshall... with Chase looking even better

Bateman is my guy at the 1.07 and 1.08 spots in my leagues. The only guy I might take over him there is Pitts.

[Pullo Vision]

I don't see Baltimore ever use any of their WR...I think that's the problem.

I think you're using the results to this point to be predictive of how it's "always going to be" - and that's not always healthy thinking, and can leave you blindsided by the assumption. This isn't a Lamar thread, but - I'd just offer these two counterpoints...

1. Lamar has still improved mechanically as a passer year-on-year-on-year-on-year now. He's still not a finished product. Getting his OL back this season will dramatically improve his odds of being successful as a passer. (Getting a new Passing Coordinator not named David Culley might help, too)

2. Hollywood Brown was perhaps the weirdest choice of Receiver that Baltimore could have made the WR1 in the draft. I know a lot of us loved him here, but lets quickly review: you have a dynamic QB who can throw well on the run and play backyard football, is excellent throwing between the hashes, and can struggle at times with his accuracy and placement on throws outside the numbers.
"OK guys, lets get him the receiver with the smallest wingspan in the draft, who requires perfect placement for passes, and who struggles mightily in contested catch situations. All on board? Great, hit the button."

PFF said as much last year when they picked Lamar over Kyler as the "QB you'd want to build around". If Lamar had a contested catch monster like D-Hop to throw to... you can bet he'd look a lot better to us as a passer.

Eventually you're probably right but Jackson really runs early and often. As for M. Brown he had 8 TD's tying him for 15th with S. Diggs. Brown has major break out potential if Jackson starts targeting WR's more often.

While Brown needs to improve his catch % it was better than Moore, Gallup, Beckham Jr, Chark, Gronk, and Claypool to name a few. At this level the QB needs to hit the target no matter the size.

Today the Ravens are built to run. Given how good their defense is I doubt they change much until Jackson gets a bit older.

They've lost talent like Judon. Still the second wave and bargain bin FAs with the draft later, but it's all about losses so far.

[Jigga94]

I think you're using the results to this point to be predictive of how it's "always going to be" - and that's not always healthy thinking, and can leave you blindsided by the assumption. This isn't a Lamar thread, but - I'd just offer these two counterpoints...

1. Lamar has still improved mechanically as a passer year-on-year-on-year-on-year now. He's still not a finished product. Getting his OL back this season will dramatically improve his odds of being successful as a passer. (Getting a new Passing Coordinator not named David Culley might help, too)

2. Hollywood Brown was perhaps the weirdest choice of Receiver that Baltimore could have made the WR1 in the draft. I know a lot of us loved him here, but lets quickly review: you have a dynamic QB who can throw well on the run and play backyard football, is excellent throwing between the hashes, and can struggle at times with his accuracy and placement on throws outside the numbers.
"OK guys, lets get him the receiver with the smallest wingspan in the draft, who requires perfect placement for passes, and who struggles mightily in contested catch situations. All on board? Great, hit the button."

PFF said as much last year when they picked Lamar over Kyler as the "QB you'd want to build around". If Lamar had a contested catch monster like D-Hop to throw to... you can bet he'd look a lot better to us as a passer.

Eventually you're probably right but Jackson really runs early and often. As for M. Brown he had 8 TD's tying him for 15th with S. Diggs. Brown has major break out potential if Jackson starts targeting WR's more often.

While Brown needs to improve his catch % it was better than Moore, Gallup, Beckham Jr, Chark, Gronk, and Claypool to name a few. At this level the QB needs to hit the target no matter the size.

Today the Ravens are built to run. Given how good their defense is I doubt they change much until Jackson gets a bit older.

They've lost talent like Judon. Still the second wave and bargain bin FAs with the draft later, but it's all about losses so far.

While the loss of Judon and Ngakoue aren't ideal, I'm not worried. It's not all about losses when you can draft and sign key replacements... Plus those 2 are way out of our price range. It happens when you have a good defense.

We have been able to find pass rushers and DE all over the draft in the past. Judon was a 5th round pick, Zadarius Smith was the same story a year ago, former 4th rounder. We re-signed Bowser (2nd rounder from '17) and McPhee for pass rushing help and Wolfe to hold down the DL with Calais and Brandon Williams. They have plenty of young front 7 players remaining from the past 2 year's draft still as well with Ferguson, Harrison, Madubuike. All 3rd rounders.

I think their management of the front 7 talent has been great aside from possibly overpaying Williams. They spend a lot of money on the secondary and it has helped in recent years.

As far as the offense, I wish they would just spend on a WR though instead of drafting the wrong guys and not being able to develop them. I'm with Mild here... Hollywood was not my favorite WR that year, mostly due to size. I wanted DK there and have been screaming internally since... The OL and running game will be fine. Some OL coming back + Zeitler. Mix in best RB trio in the league with Lamar, Dobbins and Gus

[StripesOfKC]

One name flying a bit under the radar IMO is Simi Fehoko.

Looks almost like a discount Claypool with his measurables and a solid BA despite fluid QB situations

Could be the guy that goes late 3rd in the real draft but is slept on and has his draft capital ignored (Nico Collins could also be this guy) for pre draft evaluations/obvious good landing spots

[Jigga94]

Devonta Smith says he is 170. Won't be doing any drills it sounds like

[Kcarr]

I don't see Baltimore ever use any of their WR...I think that's the problem.

I think you're using the results to this point to be predictive of how it's "always going to be" - and that's not always healthy thinking, and can leave you blindsided by the assumption. This isn't a Lamar thread, but - I'd just offer these two counterpoints...

1. Lamar has still improved mechanically as a passer year-on-year-on-year-on-year now. He's still not a finished product. Getting his OL back this season will dramatically improve his odds of being successful as a passer. (Getting a new Passing Coordinator not named David Culley might help, too)

2. Hollywood Brown was perhaps the weirdest choice of Receiver that Baltimore could have made the WR1 in the draft. I know a lot of us loved him here, but lets quickly review: you have a dynamic QB who can throw well on the run and play backyard football, is excellent throwing between the hashes, and can struggle at times with his accuracy and placement on throws outside the numbers.
"OK guys, lets get him the receiver with the smallest wingspan in the draft, who requires perfect placement for passes, and who struggles mightily in contested catch situations. All on board? Great, hit the button."

PFF said as much last year when they picked Lamar over Kyler as the "QB you'd want to build around". If Lamar had a contested catch monster like D-Hop to throw to... you can bet he'd look a lot better to us as a passer.

Or maybe it was let's find a receiver who can separate so we don't have to rely on precision throws into contested situations and also a receiver with the explosive speed to maximize the impact of a limited number of opportunities because their goal is not to create the best possible fantasy option but rather to make the most impact on their offense. Now whether they succeeded or not may be debatable but given what they seemed to want brown was a suitable choice

[mild]

2. Hollywood Brown was perhaps the weirdest choice of Receiver that Baltimore could have made the WR1 in the draft. I know a lot of us loved him here, but lets quickly review: you have a dynamic QB who can throw well on the run and play backyard football, is excellent throwing between the hashes, and can struggle at times with his accuracy and placement on throws outside the numbers.
"OK guys, lets get him the receiver with the smallest wingspan in the draft, who requires perfect placement for passes, and who struggles mightily in contested catch situations. All on board? Great, hit the button."

PFF said as much last year when they picked Lamar over Kyler as the "QB you'd want to build around". If Lamar had a contested catch monster like D-Hop to throw to... you can bet he'd look a lot better to us as a passer.

Or maybe it was let's find a receiver who can separate so we don't have to rely on precision throws into contested situations and also a receiver with the explosive speed to maximize the impact of a limited number of opportunities because their goal is not to create the best possible fantasy option but rather to make the most impact on their offense. Now whether they succeeded or not may be debatable but given what they seemed to want brown was a suitable choice

OK - but again, Hollywood hasn't shown he's any better at separating than AJ Brown or DK Metcalf - both of whom they could have had in the same spot. And he -has- shown that he is by FAR worse at bringing in a contested catch vs. those very same players. You say "so they don't have to rely on precision throws" (into contested) but I would argue you DO have to rely on precision throws - into space, with touch - to maximise Hollywood. Because if you're putting it on his body, or behind him, and expecting him to reel it in once the corner catches back up to him - then it's going to look a lot like what we saw this last season.

Again, I'm not arguing against the Ravens process at the time - so don't misconstrue that. I'm arguing against their evaluation as to what would work best with Lamar. They had had Lamar in-house for a year to the day by the time it came to the 2019 draft - they surely could have seen by that point that his best rapport in practice/real games was with his TE's over the middle of the field, and that his accuracy was going to be a long way off from "hit a dime 40 yards deep". And yet, they chose a sub-180 lb burner with a tiny wingspan who (we now know) can struggle against #1 CB's, and who struggles to reel in 50/50 balls.

I don't really know what your point is either way - because I'm arguing that a similarly suitable choice this time around might be Rashod Bateman in this class, or someone similar (Terrace Marshall?) - who can be more of a possession guy, and win those contested battles. Likewise, I'd have loved to have seen Juju in Baltimore - I think that would have been great for Lamar, and the real-life Ravens. He could use someone with sticky mitts not named Mark Andrews, and I think that would help take pressure off of Hollywood to boot.

Sure, it's going to tank the stock of whoever they pick. I'm just saying, I won't by shying away from them if it's a prospect I like, and they fall to where I can pick them at good value. I think the hate on Lamar's arm has gone too far; again, give him a Deandre Hopkins-level talent to throw to and I think he'd look a lot closer to Kyler than most would think.

[Cameron Giles]

Rondale Moore ran a sub 4.3 with a 42 inch vert

Measured at 5'7 though, but good lord.