Selling Studs this Offseason

[AresGodOWar]

That's pretty dramatic. Again, there is absolutely no proof that his workload caused those specific injuries. Yes, more work is more risk. You know what else comes with more work? More points. If you aren't worried about him not continuing to be the focal point, you shouldn't be selling him. Again, even if they take away some of the workload, he's still the locked and loaded 1.01. Using your logic, that would be even better for us dynasty owners if it keeps him healthy. Regardless of who ends up being right here, it's a win win and selling low is an awful idea. You keep suggesting there is no way they continue to give him that workload, but there has been actually no indication that will happen. You are working off a hunch while I am going off what we're seeing from the team. There's a very good chance this offense grows next year as well giving him more scoring opportunity. I'm buying low if I can and I would hold if I owned him anywhere. BTW, this is coming from an owner that rarely goes for the top running backs.

I don't think CMC is the 1.01 in dynasty anymore. Kamara has shown he can not only get it done multiple ways, but doesn't need the insane worklaod to do so.

If the JT owner gave me Taylor+ for CMC, I'd snap my thumbs accepting.

I can’t imagine thinking Kamara is over CMC after seeing him without Brees. That is wild. This kind of thinking is why I’d buy low. Recency bias is strong.

This I have to agree with , I own CMC and Kamara in leagues , I would not give CMC for Kamara for the reason he just stated , Kamara wasn't a RB1 without Brees , He averaged around 14 ppg in 1 PPR leagues without Brees. CMC came back after missing 6 games and scored 37 points on 28 touches

[Fezzik]

So one name I'm surprised to see no discussion of is Nick Chubb.

I actually think that Chubb is as good a running back there is in the game. In terms of talent, I like him better than anyone not named Saquan Barkley. Situation suffers a bit with Hunt in the mix there, but he's still a great back in a great spot.

My concern is the knee. I haven't looked into the severity of the knee injury he sustained, but going off memory his knee got totally f*cked up in college right? As a Gurley owner in multiple leagues (where I can no longer get a second for Gurley) I'm wondering if it isn't best to see if Chubb warrants an overpay right now.

Again, love the player. I'm just wondering if it isn't better to avoid the potential value cliff.... see what's out there. Look we all want to win ships, but it's worth the look in my opinion.

Not saying I'm right on this one - I would genuinely value other people's input on him.

[YouMightDieTryin]

So one name I'm surprised to see no discussion of is Nick Chubb.

I actually think that Chubb is as good a running back there is in the game. In terms of talent, I like him better than anyone not named Saquan Barkley. Situation suffers a bit with Hunt in the mix there, but he's still a great back in a great spot.

My concern is the knee. I haven't looked into the severity of the knee injury he sustained, but going off memory his knee got totally f*cked up in college right? As a Gurley owner in multiple leagues (where I can no longer get a second for Gurley) I'm wondering if it isn't best to see if Chubb warrants an overpay right now.

Again, love the player. I'm just wondering if it isn't better to avoid the potential value cliff.... see what's out there. Look we all want to win ships, but it's worth the look in my opinion.

Not saying I'm right on this one - I would genuinely value other people's input on him.

You're not wrong in having that imprint in the back of your head. For every Gurley with a gruesome knee injury there is a Gore who bucks the norm. It seems as though Chubb's workload is better off with Hunt in town as he's spelled a little more to save himself. It might mean less receptions and a few less touches, but seems worth it career longevity wise. Plus, dude still beasts on every touch he gets.

[Fezzik]

So one name I'm surprised to see no discussion of is Nick Chubb.

I actually think that Chubb is as good a running back there is in the game. In terms of talent, I like him better than anyone not named Saquan Barkley. Situation suffers a bit with Hunt in the mix there, but he's still a great back in a great spot.

My concern is the knee. I haven't looked into the severity of the knee injury he sustained, but going off memory his knee got totally f*cked up in college right? As a Gurley owner in multiple leagues (where I can no longer get a second for Gurley) I'm wondering if it isn't best to see if Chubb warrants an overpay right now.

Again, love the player. I'm just wondering if it isn't better to avoid the potential value cliff.... see what's out there. Look we all want to win ships, but it's worth the look in my opinion.

Not saying I'm right on this one - I would genuinely value other people's input on him.

You're not wrong in having that imprint in the back of your head. For every Gurley with a gruesome knee injury there is a Gore who bucks the norm. It seems as though Chubb's workload is better off with Hunt in town as he's spelled a little more to save himself. It might mean less receptions and a few less touches, but seems worth it career longevity wise. Plus, dude still beasts on every touch he gets.

So seems like we agree... and Gurley's usage was sky high for a few years and I won championships because of it, so not complaining. But the cliff was steep.

I guess my question is, given the knee injury (Gurley still) - was he always going to drop off a cliff? Like when you f*ck up your knee that bad, is the decline just a matter of time because of arthritis regardless of usage? I'm sure the 3 years he led the league in touches (or was close to leading the league in touches) certainly didn't HELP, and there's no way to really know the answer here unless someone actually has a medical background (or access to a pointed article I guess).

And what's the difference between his knee injury and AP's, Gores, or Chubbs, or sh!t even Saquans? He11, why not bring Marcus Lattimore and Jay Ajayi into the discussion you know? Lattimore was a college beast who was never the same and retired at 23. I just wonder if there's data or information out there that paints a little bit of a clearer picture on the long term effects of blown up knees so we can make better decisions, even if the only info is probabilities. I'm not saying these guys are the same kind of player, I'm just saying they were RB's who got blown out knees. I don't know enough about it. Educate me if you can.

Just been in the back of my head. I always vacillate on when to sell studs, and I've been on the wrong side of it plenty. I held Gurley for too long. I held Fitz after his apparent drop off but then he posted like 2 low end WR1 seasons from the slot. I bought Gronk for Sammy at the end, and he helped win me a ship before he retired a year later (I dropped him when he retired from Pats). Interesting questions with no "right" answers I think.

[Mjvb5]

So one name I'm surprised to see no discussion of is Nick Chubb.

I actually think that Chubb is as good a running back there is in the game. In terms of talent, I like him better than anyone not named Saquan Barkley. Situation suffers a bit with Hunt in the mix there, but he's still a great back in a great spot.

My concern is the knee. I haven't looked into the severity of the knee injury he sustained, but going off memory his knee got totally f*cked up in college right? As a Gurley owner in multiple leagues (where I can no longer get a second for Gurley) I'm wondering if it isn't best to see if Chubb warrants an overpay right now.

Again, love the player. I'm just wondering if it isn't better to avoid the potential value cliff.... see what's out there. Look we all want to win ships, but it's worth the look in my opinion.

Not saying I'm right on this one - I would genuinely value other people's input on him.

You're not wrong in having that imprint in the back of your head. For every Gurley with a gruesome knee injury there is a Gore who bucks the norm. It seems as though Chubb's workload is better off with Hunt in town as he's spelled a little more to save himself. It might mean less receptions and a few less touches, but seems worth it career longevity wise. Plus, dude still beasts on every touch he gets.

So seems like we agree... and Gurley's usage was sky high for a few years and I won championships because of it, so not complaining. But the cliff was steep.

I guess my question is, given the knee injury (Gurley still) - was he always going to drop off a cliff? Like when you f*ck up your knee that bad, is the decline just a matter of time because of arthritis regardless of usage? I'm sure the 3 years he led the league in touches (or was close to leading the league in touches) certainly didn't HELP, and there's no way to really know the answer here unless someone actually has a medical background (or access to a pointed article I guess).

And what's the difference between his knee injury and AP's, Gores, or Chubbs, or sh!t even Saquans? He11, why not bring Marcus Lattimore and Jay Ajayi into the discussion you know? Lattimore was a college beast who was never the same and retired at 23. I just wonder if there's data or information out there that paints a little bit of a clearer picture on the long term effects of blown up knees so we can make better decisions, even if the only info is probabilities. I'm not saying these guys are the same kind of player, I'm just saying they were RB's who got blown out knees. I don't know enough about it. Educate me if you can.

Just been in the back of my head. I always vacillate on when to sell studs, and I've been on the wrong side of it plenty. I held Gurley for too long. I held Fitz after his apparent drop off but then he posted like 2 low end WR1 seasons from the slot. I bought Gronk for Sammy at the end, and he helped win me a ship before he retired a year later (I dropped him when he retired from Pats). Interesting questions with no "right" answers I think.

Yeqh there's really no answer as the issue with arthritis from an injury and the surgery along those lines most likely will come( I'm talking virtually garunteed) the issue is that when it comes varies so wildly and is due to ao many factors both internal and external. In reality he could get arthritis in that knee next year or in several years

[CGW]

To add to the Chubb discussion (and any RBs), RBs historically have peaked between ages of 24-27. By the age 28, there are significantly less productive seasons of RB1-12. Chubb is squarely in his prime, but odds are only has one or two more top end seasons.

Year /Avg Age of T12 / #T12 over 27
2020 / 24.42 / 0
2019 / 24.58 / 1
2018 / 23.50 / 0
2017 / 24.08 / 2
2016 / 25.67 / 4
2015 / 26.50 / 4
2014 / 25.25 / 2

Small sample size, but the trend seems to be less and less productive(RB1) older RBs. I tend to sell these RBs when they reach their second contract at age 25ish. Usually that correlates with their peaks.

[Mjvb5]

To add to the Chubb discussion (and any RBs), RBs historically have peaked between ages of 24-27. By the age 28, there are significantly less productive seasons of RB1-12. Chubb is squarely in his prime, but odds are only has one or two more top end seasons.

Year /Avg Age of T12 / #T12 over 27
2020 / 24.42 / 0
2019 / 24.58 / 1
2018 / 23.50 / 0
2017 / 24.08 / 2
2016 / 25.67 / 4
2015 / 26.50 / 4
2014 / 25.25 / 2

Small sample size, but the trend seems to be less and less productive(RB1) older RBs. I tend to sell these RBs when they reach their second contract at age 25ish. Usually that correlates with their peaks.

Often times this also corresponds with moving to a new time or competition being brought in which makes sense that it'd hurt production as well.
Gordon, Howard, Hyde, Lewis, and bell are all examples of guys who had a top 12 year moved teams and faded fast

[Cameron Giles]

To add to the Chubb discussion (and any RBs), RBs historically have peaked between ages of 24-27. By the age 28, there are significantly less productive seasons of RB1-12. Chubb is squarely in his prime, but odds are only has one or two more top end seasons.

Year /Avg Age of T12 / #T12 over 27
2020 / 24.42 / 0
2019 / 24.58 / 1
2018 / 23.50 / 0
2017 / 24.08 / 2
2016 / 25.67 / 4
2015 / 26.50 / 4
2014 / 25.25 / 2

Small sample size, but the trend seems to be less and less productive(RB1) older RBs. I tend to sell these RBs when they reach their second contract at age 25ish. Usually that correlates with their peaks.

That's the dilemma. Sure, you could sell Chubb, but you could easily miss out on two elite RB1, league-winning seasons.

That's the tough part in dynasty. There comes a crossroad where you have to ask yourself what's more important: Winning a league or cashing out on trade value?

Sometimes you can do both in one trade, but it's never by design or intent.

If you're in a rebuild, or you're not a contender, then it's easier to move Chubb. But if you're a contender...it's very difficult, and I'd lean towards sacrificing trade value for a chance at a title.

[Fezzik]

If you're in a rebuild, or you're not a contender, then it's easier to move Chubb. But if you're a contender...it's very difficult, and I'd lean towards sacrificing trade value for a chance at a title.

Nailed it. And that's right where I am with the team I have Chubb.

I think I'm leaning towards keeping him and simply consciously accepting that I am risking, if not accepting, the cliff in a few years, in exchange for a couple big seasons where I contend.