2021 Rookie Tiers

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Jigga94
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby Jigga94 » Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:37 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:53 pm There's definitely an age cliff for RBs in general, and Harris' age is a big hill to overcome for his overall career outlook, but for us we should really only care about rookie RBs for their rookie contract window and his will end at about the same time as the "age cliff" anyway. So probably just draft him, use him for 2-3 years and flip him, don't draft RBs hoping for a 6-10 year stud outside of the very rare Saquon Barkley type prospects (who are no guarantee of longevity either).
I agree. On the plus side, he's older so maybe he comes in and plays better than some younger RB rookies? Seems logical, but that's likely not always true. If it works out that way, his value will likely be very high after year 1 and 2 then you can look to move him in year 3 or after maybe. Still way too early but I get the thought, not many RB are as good or better in their 2nd deal.

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby stoneghost28 » Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:58 am

bjd5211 wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:53 pm There's definitely an age cliff for RBs in general, and Harris' age is a big hill to overcome for his overall career outlook, but for us we should really only care about rookie RBs for their rookie contract window and his will end at about the same time as the "age cliff" anyway. So probably just draft him, use him for 2-3 years and flip him, don't draft RBs hoping for a 6-10 year stud outside of the very rare Saquon Barkley type prospects (who are no guarantee of longevity either).
I don't, I tend to flip my RB's during or after year 3 unless I can't find a fair deal (problem I ran into with mixon having a terrible year exactly when I tend to try to flip guys w/his profile), I don't like holding them into year 4 or 5 because at that point you tend to lose at least some of the market to people who share my feelings about the cliff. This is why I just have a hard time drafting a guy like Harris, the only incentive I have is to flip him pretty quickly, so it would only make sense for me where I had the 1.01 in a very super active trade happy league, if it aint active, I can't justify taking someone who will be 23 as a rookie RB. the guys from the last class were generally 21, or a very young 22, Harrisis basically going to already be halfway to 24 when he receives his first hand off rather than a freshly minted 23 year old. Alarming to me, as someone who prefers to draft RB's who are either 21, or youngish 22 to get that 4+ season angle of use/tradability.

This is why I have such a hard time with the Harris at 1.01 talk. I get why people buy it who love the prospect and aren't as worried about the age cliff, but if you take age 26 seriously, I just don't see how you take him there unless you play in a league w/plenty of active traders and hopefully plenty of active traders who don't care as much about RB age.

There's a reason I don't have Gurley, Johnson, Bell, Gordon, Zeke etc on any of my rosters and haven't in years. I want no part of the risk of being unable to unload them (if/when the roof caves in on their value).

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:08 pm

stoneghost28 wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:58 am
bjd5211 wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:53 pm There's definitely an age cliff for RBs in general, and Harris' age is a big hill to overcome for his overall career outlook, but for us we should really only care about rookie RBs for their rookie contract window and his will end at about the same time as the "age cliff" anyway. So probably just draft him, use him for 2-3 years and flip him, don't draft RBs hoping for a 6-10 year stud outside of the very rare Saquon Barkley type prospects (who are no guarantee of longevity either).
I don't, I tend to flip my RB's during or after year 3 unless I can't find a fair deal (problem I ran into with mixon having a terrible year exactly when I tend to try to flip guys w/his profile), I don't like holding them into year 4 or 5 because at that point you tend to lose at least some of the market to people who share my feelings about the cliff.
Which is pretty much exactly what I said...

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby tresskid84 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:35 am

Here are my pre-draft rookie tiers at the moment, starting with QB:

QB1 Trevor Lawrence
-
QB2 Justin Fields
QB3 Zach Wilson
-
QB4 Trey Lance
QB5 Mac Jones
-
QB6 Davis Mills
QB7 Kyle Trask
QB8 Kellen Mond
-
QB9 Jamie Newman
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby tresskid84 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:36 am

RBs:

HB1 Travis Etienne
-
HB2 Najee Harris
HB3 Javonte Williams
-
HB4 Michael Carter
HB5 Khalil Herbert
HB6 Kenneth Gainwell
-
HB7 Trey Sermon
HB8 Chris Evans
HB9 Chuba Hubbard
HB10 Kylin Hill
-
HB11 Rhamondre Stevenson
HB12 Demetric Felton
HB13 Elijah Mitchell
-
HB14 Jaret Patterson
HB15 Pooka Williams Jr
HB16 Javian Hawkins
HB17 BJ Emmons
HB18 Jake Funk
HB19 Trey Ragas
-
HB20 Kene Nwangwu
HB21 Gerrid Doaks
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby tresskid84 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:38 am

WRs:

WR1 Ja'Marr Chase
-
WR2 Jaylen Waddle
WR3 DeVonta Smith
WR4 Rashod Bateman
-
WR5 Terrace Marshall
WR6 Rondale Moore
WR7 Elijah Moore
WR8 Kadarius Toney
-
WR9 Dyami Brown
WR10 Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR11 Jaelon Darden
WR12 Tylan Wallace
WR13 Cade Johnson
-
WR14 Josh Palmer
WR15 Cornell Powell
WR16 Tutu Atwell
WR17 Seth Williams
WR18 Simi Fehoko
-
WR19 Nico Collins
WR20 D'Wayne Eskridge
WR21 Dax Milne
WR22 Amari Rodgers
WR23 Shi Smith
WR24 Jonathan Adams Jr
WR25 Ihmir Smith-Marsette
WR26 Sage Surratt
WR27 Tamorrion Terry
WR28 Antonio Nunn
WR29 Michael Strachan
WE30 Dazz Newsome
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby tresskid84 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:38 am

TEs:

TE1 Kyle Pitts
-
TE2 Pat Freiermuth
TE3 Brevin Jordan
-
TE4 Hunter Long
TE5 Tommy Tremble
-
TE6 Tony Poljan
TE7 Nick Eubanks
-
TE8 Quintin Morris
TE9 John Bates
TE10 Kylen Granson
TE11 Matt Bushman
TE12 Ben Mason
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby Sriracha » Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:38 pm

tresskid84 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:38 am TEs:

TE1 Kyle Pitts
-
TE2 Pat Freiermuth
TE3 Brevin Jordan
-
TE4 Hunter Long
TE5 Tommy Tremble
-
TE6 Tony Poljan
TE7 Nick Eubanks
-
TE8 Quintin Morris
TE9 John Bates
TE10 Kylen Granson
TE11 Matt Bushman
TE12 Ben Mason
You don’t like McKitty and Yeboah?

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby kadun2 » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:49 pm

tresskid84 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:38 am TEs:

TE1 Kyle Pitts
-
TE2 Pat Freiermuth
TE3 Brevin Jordan
-
TE4 Hunter Long
TE5 Tommy Tremble
-
TE6 Tony Poljan
TE7 Nick Eubanks
-
TE8 Quintin Morris
TE9 John Bates
TE10 Kylen Granson
TE11 Matt Bushman
TE12 Ben Mason
Nice work on all of the lists. That takes some time and effort.

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:21 pm

Strong work!
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby tresskid84 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:57 am

Sriracha wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:38 pm
tresskid84 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:38 am TEs:

TE1 Kyle Pitts
-
TE2 Pat Freiermuth
TE3 Brevin Jordan
-
TE4 Hunter Long
TE5 Tommy Tremble
-
TE6 Tony Poljan
TE7 Nick Eubanks
-
TE8 Quintin Morris
TE9 John Bates
TE10 Kylen Granson
TE11 Matt Bushman
TE12 Ben Mason
You don’t like McKitty and Yeboah?
I do not, haha. They would be next up though
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby sugbear65 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:45 am

tresskid84 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:36 am RBs:

HB1 Travis Etienne
-
HB2 Najee Harris
HB3 Javonte Williams
-
HB4 Michael Carter
HB5 Khalil Herbert
HB6 Kenneth Gainwell
-
HB7 Trey Sermon
HB8 Chris Evans
HB9 Chuba Hubbard
HB10 Kylin Hill
-
HB11 Rhamondre Stevenson
HB12 Demetric Felton
HB13 Elijah Mitchell
-
HB14 Jaret Patterson
HB15 Pooka Williams Jr
HB16 Javian Hawkins
HB17 BJ Emmons
HB18 Jake Funk
HB19 Trey Ragas
-
HB20 Kene Nwangwu
HB21 Gerrid Doaks
No Jermar Jefferson? That’s a bold strategy Cotton.

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby tresskid84 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:23 pm

lol, yeah, ill pass on jermar, easily
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby cantguardjake » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:38 pm

This really is a terrible running back class.

I’d have it something like this (with rookie ADPs):

Tier 1 (top 5 pick): Etienne, Javonte
Tier 2 (late first): Najee

Daylight

Tier 3 (second round) Hill, Sermon

Daylight

Tier 4 (old but athletic fliers 4th round +): Herbert, Evans, Funk

That is really all that I see worth spending a pick on, the rest are either too small or not athletic enough.

That list is large, but a majority of them just aren’t any good.

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby Sriracha » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:03 pm

cantguardjake wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:38 pm This really is a terrible running back class.

I’d have it something like this (with rookie ADPs):

Tier 1 (top 5 pick): Etienne, Javonte
Tier 2 (late first): Najee

Daylight

Tier 3 (second round) Hill, Sermon

Daylight

Tier 4 (old but athletic fliers 4th round +): Herbert, Evans, Funk

That is really all that I see worth spending a pick on, the rest are either too small or not athletic enough.

That list is large, but a majority of them just aren’t any good.
It really has been extremely disappointing.

At this point I have Chris Evans in my top 7 solely on the potential that Jim Harbaugh is a talent killer + his elite athleticism


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