2021 Rookie Tiers

[briank]

Does Chase give anyone else N’Keal Harry vibes?

No, and why?

[briank]

I said it before but if Javonte goes in the 2nd (same round as Najee and Etienne likely) to a decent enough landing spot I don't think I can keep him out of T1

Can't argue with you here. I like Javonte a fair amount. I'm just wary of players we need some sort of argument/narrative (whether that be draft capital/landing spot) for moving up into Tier 1 vs. players we've had as studs without any of that narrative worked in.

I take more stock into draft capital than pre-draft ranking. A player who falls in the actual draft should see their FF ranking drop as well. Players who go higher than expected should rise.

Draft capital is the biggest factor for me. I took Dionte Johnson late in rookie drafts because of his draft capital even though I didn't know anything about him. It has paid off.

[remedy29]

I like that the question about JaMarr Chase has been brought up, and I agree, his 1 big season in a great offense, followed by his cowardly sitting on the sidelines does raise valid questions. As does Smith's ridiculous low BMI.

With that said, what is the expectation of Chase and Smith ceiling and floor? Is their potential high ceiling, or high floor worth being ranked over Kyle Pitts? Pitts has everything from college production, NFL body, likely top half of NFL 1st round capital, and position scarcity where if he hits his potential, you are talking a huge positional advatage for years.

And don't turn this into a boring "I don't draft TEs high in Round 1" discussion. Pitts is already smack in the middle of fantasy drafts round 1. The only question is how high of a pick is he worth.

[bjd5211]

I like that the question about JaMarr Chase has been brought up, and I agree, his 1 big season in a great offense, followed by his cowardly sitting on the sidelines does raise valid questions. As does Smith's ridiculous low BMI.

[Chwf3rd]

Just started by rookie evals and right now I see a top 7 (in 1QB) with a pretty big drop off afterwards:

(in no order)
ETN
Najee Harris
Javonte Williams
Jamar Chase
Devonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
Kyle Pitts

In SF/2QB add in TLaw, Fields, and Wilson with Trey Lance as the wild card.

[hoos89]

I like that the question about JaMarr Chase has been brought up, and I agree, his 1 big season in a great offense, followed by his cowardly sitting on the sidelines does raise valid questions. As does Smith's ridiculous low BMI.

With that said, what is the expectation of Chase and Smith ceiling and floor? Is their potential high ceiling, or high floor worth being ranked over Kyle Pitts? Pitts has everything from college production, NFL body, likely top half of NFL 1st round capital, and position scarcity where if he hits his potential, you are talking a huge positional advatage for years.

And don't turn this into a boring "I don't draft TEs high in Round 1" discussion. Pitts is already smack in the middle of fantasy drafts round 1. The only question is how high of a pick is he worth.

Not wanting to risk getting COVID by playing a sport without compensation is cowardly? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

[remedy29]

I like that the question about JaMarr Chase has been brought up, and I agree, his 1 big season in a great offense, followed by his cowardly sitting on the sidelines does raise valid questions. As does Smith's ridiculous low BMI.

With that said, what is the expectation of Chase and Smith ceiling and floor? Is their potential high ceiling, or high floor worth being ranked over Kyle Pitts? Pitts has everything from college production, NFL body, likely top half of NFL 1st round capital, and position scarcity where if he hits his potential, you are talking a huge positional advatage for years.

And don't turn this into a boring "I don't draft TEs high in Round 1" discussion. Pitts is already smack in the middle of fantasy drafts round 1. The only question is how high of a pick is he worth.

Not wanting to risk getting COVID by playing a sport without compensation is cowardly? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Sure that's the excuse, but it's far from the reason. In Chase's case, why risk poor film when he already has high draft capital.

In the words of Rosehaus;
“I don’t think that there is much debate that for guys that are willing to brave the health risks to play football and aren’t necessarily top picks, playing this year will help,” said Rosenhaus.

So if your not brave, then ???

Look, we can mix words all we want, these players were certainly concerned, but they certainly all weren't entirely concerned due to COVID.

[nathanq42]

I like that the question about JaMarr Chase has been brought up, and I agree, his 1 big season in a great offense, followed by his cowardly sitting on the sidelines does raise valid questions. As does Smith's ridiculous low BMI.

With that said, what is the expectation of Chase and Smith ceiling and floor? Is their potential high ceiling, or high floor worth being ranked over Kyle Pitts? Pitts has everything from college production, NFL body, likely top half of NFL 1st round capital, and position scarcity where if he hits his potential, you are talking a huge positional advatage for years.

And don't turn this into a boring "I don't draft TEs high in Round 1" discussion. Pitts is already smack in the middle of fantasy drafts round 1. The only question is how high of a pick is he worth.

Not wanting to risk getting COVID by playing a sport without compensation is cowardly? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Sure that's the excuse, but it's far from the reason. In Chase's case, why risk poor film when he already has high draft capital.

In the words of Rosehaus;
“I don’t think that there is much debate that for guys that are willing to brave the health risks to play football and aren’t necessarily top picks, playing this year will help,” said Rosenhaus.

So if your not brave, then ???

Look, we can mix words all we want, these players were certainly concerned, but they certainly all weren't entirely concerned due to COVID.

Wow... I call me a bleep because I would make the smart career choice every single time over trying to make a guy on the internet think I'm brave ..

[ThunderTung]

Not wanting to risk getting COVID by playing a sport without compensation is cowardly? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Sure that's the excuse, but it's far from the reason. In Chase's case, why risk poor film when he already has high draft capital.

In the words of Rosehaus;
“I don’t think that there is much debate that for guys that are willing to brave the health risks to play football and aren’t necessarily top picks, playing this year will help,” said Rosenhaus.

So if your not brave, then ???

Look, we can mix words all we want, these players were certainly concerned, but they certainly all weren't entirely concerned due to COVID.

Wow... I call me a bleep because I would make the smart career choice every single time over trying to make a guy on the internet think I'm brave ..

While I understand his decision, and loved him as a prospect, its still enough for me to probably trade out of the 1.01 if I ended up getting that pick.

Only gonna take him now if he falls, or if CIN drafts him cuz that burrow to chase reunion would get me excited

[jenkins.math]

While its a super small sample size and a couple of these guys had off field issues, the small list of guys who have just outright sat a year has yielded poor returns. Most recently Lev Bell who immediately looked washed but further back you have Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams of USC who sat a year and never looked good in the pros. Thats a slight worry for me with Chase.

[bjd5211]

Ja'Marr Chase (and the other opt outs) is a coward because he chose his health and future over continuing to subject himself to exploitation from a corrupt industry that no longer has anything to offer him, and can do nothing but hurt his draft stock and future earnings? Sounds more like intelligence to me, and if you have a problem with it you might as well start looking for a new hobby, because it's going to become far more common in the future unless the NCAA and these Universities make some significant changes to how they treat these athletes. An athletic scholarship is no longer adequate compensation for the amount of revenue NFL level talents generate for the schools and NCAA.

[bjd5211]

While its a super small sample size and a couple of these guys had off field issues, the small list of guys who have just outright sat a year has yielded poor returns. Most recently Lev Bell who immediately looked washed but further back you have Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams of USC who sat a year and never looked good in the pros. Thats a slight worry for me with Chase.

Well we are going to find out if it actually matters this year. Arguably the top 5 non-QBs in this class (OT Penei Sewell, LB Micah Parsons, WR Chase, DE Gregory Rousseau, CB Caleb Farley) all opted out and didn't play a down, as did quite a few others along with many who opted out at different points in the season. This is more likely to become the new normal than be a one-off anomaly due to Covid, and CFB needs to seriously reevaluate how they treat these athletes if they want to avoid this being the first step towards the death of their cash cow.

[jenkins.math]

While its a super small sample size and a couple of these guys had off field issues, the small list of guys who have just outright sat a year has yielded poor returns. Most recently Lev Bell who immediately looked washed but further back you have Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams of USC who sat a year and never looked good in the pros. Thats a slight worry for me with Chase.

Well we are going to find out if it actually matters this year. Arguably the top 5 non-QBs in this class (OT Penei Sewell, LB Micah Parsons, WR Chase, DE Gregory Rousseau, CB Caleb Farley) all opted out and didn't play a down, as did quite a few others along with many who opted out at different points in the season. This is more likely to become the new normal than be a one-off anomaly due to Covid, and CFB needs to seriously reevaluate how they treat these athletes if they want to avoid this being the first step towards the death of their cash cow.

I think its a little presumptious of you to say that opting out is going to become the new normal. When Brandon Jennings spurned college to play pro basketball overseas about a decade ago everyone said that would become the new norm. They were wrong as very few kids have followed that path. I don't think this becomes the new norm at all. Now I won't be shocked if 1 or 2 kids each year try this, but these top prospects better ball out if this path is to continue. If they all flop or none of them reach their ceiling, the opt out will get blamed.

While CFB isn't giving these guys big checks, they are treated like royalty in the town they live in. They never pay for anything and the connections these kids make (if they play their cards right) are their ticket to a 6 figure a year job if their pro career flames out. Not to mention their scholarship gives them monthly cash in their pocket. The system isn't as broken as you make it out to be. The kids at the big schools have it pretty darn well, especially if you're an NFL worthy player. Its the kids that end up starting a couple years but are never good enough to make a pro career out of it or be a star that the system screws.

[Cameron Giles]

While its a super small sample size and a couple of these guys had off field issues, the small list of guys who have just outright sat a year has yielded poor returns. Most recently Lev Bell who immediately looked washed but further back you have Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams of USC who sat a year and never looked good in the pros. Thats a slight worry for me with Chase.

Well, Luck missed an entire year with an injury, rehabbed, and came back and almost threw for 40 TDs. Sure, he didn't sit, but we can't assume that because a player is not playing the year, then that means they're not doing any conditioning or staying in shape. I think Bell's mistake was going to the Jets and just getting older.

I wouldn't have any concern about it. Chase is really good and still young. A year off from football isn't going to do much to his career outside of maybe some rust.

[bjd5211]

It's not much different than the countless players who transfer in college and have sit out a year either, they're essentially just transferring to the NFL instead of a new school.