2021 Rookie Tiers

[ArrylT]

This really is a terrible running back class.

I’d have it something like this (with rookie ADPs):

Tier 1 (top 5 pick): Etienne, Javonte
Tier 2 (late first): Najee

Daylight

Tier 3 (second round) Hill, Sermon

Daylight

Tier 4 (old but athletic fliers 4th round +): Herbert, Evans, Funk

That is really all that I see worth spending a pick on, the rest are either too small or not athletic enough.

That list is large, but a majority of them just aren’t any good.

I disagree, its not a deep class by any means. But I think "terrible" is a bit much. Harris, ETN, and Williams are very good backs. They might not be JT's or Saquons, but they're very good RB prospects. The difference is that past those 3 there is not a lot to be excited about, but I def wouldn't call this a terrible class.

Just because last seasons class was generationally great, doesn't mean anything less than that is terrible. Im just as excited about these top 3 RB prospects this season as I was last season minus maybe JT

I think you make a solid point and I wish I had addressed it in my thread talking about the 2021 class. Sometimes by comparing 1 class to another class, which is always difficult because hindsight comes into play in some form, we unfairly downgrade the potential for the "lesser" class to interest us, to our own hindrance. For sure, if we focus on the ceiling and top end talent, then the 2021 class may be lacking in numbers compared to a 2020. But it does have at least 1-2 players who have a chance to be very special, across the 4 skill positions. When someone like Ice has 6 players in his top tier, I think it is an important reminder that this class is not bereft of elite talent.

[wickerkat1212]

My 6 Tier One fantasy players excluding QB's.

Pitts, Chase, Etienne, Harris, Smith, Waddle.

The above is the order I rank them but IMO these 6 in some order should go top 6 in one QB PPr Leagues. I could see some minor changes in 3-6 based on location but my top 2 are locks at this point.

Where would you put Bateman, 7th?

I am not sold on Bateman at 7.

I like Terrace Marshall, R Moore, J. Williams, then Bateman.

I like Bateman as a prospect at 1.10 but he looks a little mechanical to me and doesn't really play fast. His is a sound technical route runner but just doesn't look natural and I am concerned better DB's will beat him too much. He could still be really good eventually but where he goes will matter IMO.

I like Marshall's upside quite a bit better. He is raw in some areas but love his height/speed and those LSU WR's show up in big games. With a few years he could be a dominate NFL #1 WR for a team. He looks comfortable playing inside and outside. Great body to add strength as he matures.

I like Terrace a lot, too. As well as Williams. Good to know as I'm picking in that range, 7-8.

[Vcize]

This really is a terrible running back class.

I’d have it something like this (with rookie ADPs):

Tier 1 (top 5 pick): Etienne, Javonte
Tier 2 (late first): Najee

Daylight

Tier 3 (second round) Hill, Sermon

Daylight

Tier 4 (old but athletic fliers 4th round +): Herbert, Evans, Funk

That is really all that I see worth spending a pick on, the rest are either too small or not athletic enough.

That list is large, but a majority of them just aren’t any good.

I disagree, its not a deep class by any means. But I think "terrible" is a bit much. Harris, ETN, and Williams are very good backs. They might not be JT's or Saquons, but they're very good RB prospects . The difference is that past those 3 there is not a lot to be excited about, but I def wouldn't call this a terrible class.

Just because last seasons class was generationally great, doesn't mean anything less than that is terrible. Im just as excited about these top 3 RB prospects this season as I was last season minus maybe JT

JT really wasn't anything more than a "very good RB prospect" himself. He certainly didn't belong in the same sentence as Saquon as a prospect. He was the 41st overall pick and the 3rd running back off the board last year. I don't really see a huge gap between a guy like him and guys like Harris/Etienne as prospects.

The difference in RBs between this year and last year is there were 4 or 5 guys that you could put into that "very good RB prospect" bucket, whereas this year there are only 2, maybe 3 depending on how high you are on Williams.

[Bronco Billy]

This really is a terrible running back class.

I’d have it something like this (with rookie ADPs):

Tier 1 (top 5 pick): Etienne, Javonte
Tier 2 (late first): Najee

Daylight

Tier 3 (second round) Hill, Sermon

Daylight

Tier 4 (old but athletic fliers 4th round +): Herbert, Evans, Funk

That is really all that I see worth spending a pick on, the rest are either too small or not athletic enough.

That list is large, but a majority of them just aren’t any good.

I disagree, its not a deep class by any means. But I think "terrible" is a bit much. Harris, ETN, and Williams are very good backs. They might not be JT's or Saquons, but they're very good RB prospects . The difference is that past those 3 there is not a lot to be excited about, but I def wouldn't call this a terrible class.

Just because last seasons class was generationally great, doesn't mean anything less than that is terrible. Im just as excited about these top 3 RB prospects this season as I was last season minus maybe JT

JT really wasn't anything more than a "very good RB prospect" himself. He certainly didn't belong in the same sentence as Saquon as a prospect. He was the 41st overall pick and the 3rd running back off the board last year. I don't really see a huge gap between a guy like him and guys like Harris/Etienne as prospects.

You’re correct. The scouting community gets it wrong a good portion of the time.

[ThunderTung]

This really is a terrible running back class.

I’d have it something like this (with rookie ADPs):

Tier 1 (top 5 pick): Etienne, Javonte
Tier 2 (late first): Najee

Daylight

Tier 3 (second round) Hill, Sermon

Daylight

Tier 4 (old but athletic fliers 4th round +): Herbert, Evans, Funk

That is really all that I see worth spending a pick on, the rest are either too small or not athletic enough.

That list is large, but a majority of them just aren’t any good.

I disagree, its not a deep class by any means. But I think "terrible" is a bit much. Harris, ETN, and Williams are very good backs. They might not be JT's or Saquons, but they're very good RB prospects . The difference is that past those 3 there is not a lot to be excited about, but I def wouldn't call this a terrible class.

Just because last seasons class was generationally great, doesn't mean anything less than that is terrible. Im just as excited about these top 3 RB prospects this season as I was last season minus maybe JT

JT really wasn't anything more than a "very good RB prospect" himself. He certainly didn't belong in the same sentence as Saquon as a prospect. He was the 41st overall pick and the 3rd running back off the board last year. I don't really see a huge gap between a guy like him and guys like Harris/Etienne as prospects.

The difference in RBs between this year and last year is there were 4 or 5 guys that you could put into that "very good RB prospect" bucket, whereas this year there are only 2, maybe 3 depending on how high you are on Williams.

I get what your saying, but I didn't really mean to compare those two as if they were on the same level. While I would class JT as a great RB prospect, Saquon was obviously generational. My point was that JT was the best RB prospect last season, and I'd put Harris, ETN, and Williams in the same class as Swift, Dobbins, and CEH. The only reason CEH got vaulted is because of his landing spot/draft capital.

But from a prospect eval, JT was ahead of anyone in the last 2 classes

[Ice]

I disagree, its not a deep class by any means. But I think "terrible" is a bit much. Harris, ETN, and Williams are very good backs. They might not be JT's or Saquons, but they're very good RB prospects . The difference is that past those 3 there is not a lot to be excited about, but I def wouldn't call this a terrible class.

Just because last seasons class was generationally great, doesn't mean anything less than that is terrible. Im just as excited about these top 3 RB prospects this season as I was last season minus maybe JT

JT really wasn't anything more than a "very good RB prospect" himself. He certainly didn't belong in the same sentence as Saquon as a prospect. He was the 41st overall pick and the 3rd running back off the board last year. I don't really see a huge gap between a guy like him and guys like Harris/Etienne as prospects.

The difference in RBs between this year and last year is there were 4 or 5 guys that you could put into that "very good RB prospect" bucket, whereas this year there are only 2, maybe 3 depending on how high you are on Williams.

I get what your saying, but I didn't really mean to compare those two as if they were on the same level. While I would class JT as a great RB prospect, Saquon was obviously generational. My point was that JT was the best RB prospect last season, and I'd put Harris, ETN, and Williams in the same class as Swift, Dobbins, and CEH. The only reason CEH got vaulted is because of his landing spot/draft capital.

But from a prospect eval, JT was ahead of anyone in the last 2 classes

But that really isn't true from the actual NFL Draft reality.

5 RB's went between 32 - 55. By NFL standards you could throw a blanket over them. JT went 3rd last year at pick 41.

JT may have had the best rookie campaign but he was not considered a consensus best RB in the NFL draft or the fantasy community; That is more opinion than actual fact.

Hindsight plays a role here IMO.

[Jigga94]

It's funny because while JT wasn't "generational" and didnt have the draft capital, he was very similar to Barkley as a prospect. Also, JT had A LOT of production in college. None of the backs this year come close to JT or a lot of the backs in last class

[StripesOfKC]

Harris or especially Etienne can't even carry Dobbins, Akers or Swift's jock straps--let alone JT's

IMO at least

A 23 year old minus athlete and a guy blinder than Trent Richardson who would be regarded the same as Chuba Hubbard is now if he played at an average p5 school rather than Clemson

[Ice]

It's funny because while JT wasn't "generational" and didnt have the draft capital, he was very similar to Barkley as a prospect. Also, JT had A LOT of production in college. None of the backs this year come close to JT or a lot of the backs in last class

The NFL doesn't care nearly as much about total RB production volume in college these days. They care far more about how efficient they are given the production opportunity they do get in the age of shotgun 5 wide pass catchers that is the college game today.

The top 2-3 backs coming out this year could be as good as better than most last year in the right system.

RB is more of a system position than ever before in the era of specialists IMO. The 3rd best back by most led the nation in broken tackles this past year. Will that help him.....Maybe but then again RB's are system driven these days. The era of the 3 down stud could be going the way of the FB in today's up tempo offenses which is one reason I now have Pitt's #1 on my draft board.

[Bronco Billy]

JT really wasn't anything more than a "very good RB prospect" himself. He certainly didn't belong in the same sentence as Saquon as a prospect. He was the 41st overall pick and the 3rd running back off the board last year. I don't really see a huge gap between a guy like him and guys like Harris/Etienne as prospects.

The difference in RBs between this year and last year is there were 4 or 5 guys that you could put into that "very good RB prospect" bucket, whereas this year there are only 2, maybe 3 depending on how high you are on Williams.

I get what your saying, but I didn't really mean to compare those two as if they were on the same level. While I would class JT as a great RB prospect, Saquon was obviously generational. My point was that JT was the best RB prospect last season, and I'd put Harris, ETN, and Williams in the same class as Swift, Dobbins, and CEH. The only reason CEH got vaulted is because of his landing spot/draft capital.

But from a prospect eval, JT was ahead of anyone in the last 2 classes

But that really isn't true from the actual NFL Draft reality.

5 RB's went between 32 - 55. By NFL standards you could throw a blanket over them. JT went 3rd last year at pick 41.

JT may have had the best rookie campaign but he was not considered a consensus best RB in the NFL draft or the fantasy community; That is more opinion than actual fact.

Hindsight plays a role here IMO.

Hence the flaw in groupthink. They convinced themselves that Taylor was a 2 down RB who couldn’t catch and was potentially a fumbler. That’s despite his showing off some chops catching in his junior year and then again at the combine.

Taylor outproduced Barkley in yards, yards per touch, and TDs over a 3 year period in college - despite not catching nearly as many passes - and is every bit as athletic and sizable as Barkley.

We’ll see who has the better career.

[ThunderTung]

JT really wasn't anything more than a "very good RB prospect" himself. He certainly didn't belong in the same sentence as Saquon as a prospect. He was the 41st overall pick and the 3rd running back off the board last year. I don't really see a huge gap between a guy like him and guys like Harris/Etienne as prospects.

The difference in RBs between this year and last year is there were 4 or 5 guys that you could put into that "very good RB prospect" bucket, whereas this year there are only 2, maybe 3 depending on how high you are on Williams.

I get what your saying, but I didn't really mean to compare those two as if they were on the same level. While I would class JT as a great RB prospect, Saquon was obviously generational. My point was that JT was the best RB prospect last season, and I'd put Harris, ETN, and Williams in the same class as Swift, Dobbins, and CEH. The only reason CEH got vaulted is because of his landing spot/draft capital.

But from a prospect eval, JT was ahead of anyone in the last 2 classes

But that really isn't true from the actual NFL Draft reality.

5 RB's went between 32 - 55. By NFL standards you could throw a blanket over them. JT went 3rd last year at pick 41.

JT may have had the best rookie campaign but he was not considered a consensus best RB in the NFL draft or the fantasy community; That is more opinion than actual fact.

Hindsight plays a role here IMO.

draft capital that close to each other is pretty irrelevant imo. There are so many factors that go into it. In a vacuum I think its pretty hard to say JT wasn't the best prospect coming out. Whatever traits teams value more at the position makes a big difference in the actual draft.

In fantasy JT was def the consensus 1.01 until CEH went to KC in the first round

[Ice]

I get what your saying, but I didn't really mean to compare those two as if they were on the same level. While I would class JT as a great RB prospect, Saquon was obviously generational. My point was that JT was the best RB prospect last season, and I'd put Harris, ETN, and Williams in the same class as Swift, Dobbins, and CEH. The only reason CEH got vaulted is because of his landing spot/draft capital.

But from a prospect eval, JT was ahead of anyone in the last 2 classes

But that really isn't true from the actual NFL Draft reality.

5 RB's went between 32 - 55. By NFL standards you could throw a blanket over them. JT went 3rd last year at pick 41.

JT may have had the best rookie campaign but he was not considered a consensus best RB in the NFL draft or the fantasy community; That is more opinion than actual fact.

Hindsight plays a role here IMO.

draft capital that close to each other is pretty irrelevant imo. There are so many factors that go into it. In a vacuum I think its pretty hard to say JT wasn't the best prospect coming out. Whatever traits teams value more at the position makes a big difference in the actual draft.

In fantasy JT was def the consensus 1.01 until CEH went to KC in the first round

Revisionist History but you are entitled to your opinion but it wasn't actually that way for certain in the NFL and I know several that thought Swift was the best player way before the NFL draft happened. I know others that thought Dobbins was the best. No way it was anything close to consensus.

No argument JT had the best rookie campaign overall from me but your making claims that simply are not based in fact.

That said, JT does look like a fantasy beast. It will be interesting to see his actual share this season.

[Sriracha]

My 6 Tier One fantasy players excluding QB's.

Pitts, Chase, Etienne, Harris, Smith, Waddle.

The above is the order I rank them but IMO these 6 in some order should go top 6 in one QB PPr Leagues. I could see some minor changes in 3-6 based on location but my top 2 are locks at this point.

Where would you put Bateman, 7th?

I am not sold on Bateman at 7.

I like Terrace Marshall, R Moore, J. Williams, then Bateman.

I like Bateman as a prospect at 1.10 but he looks a little mechanical to me and doesn't really play fast. His is a sound technical route runner but just doesn't look natural and I am concerned better DB's will beat him too much. He could still be really good eventually but where he goes will matter IMO.

I like Marshall's upside quite a bit better. He is raw in some areas but love his height/speed and those LSU WR's show up in big games. With a few years he could be a dominate NFL #1 WR for a team. He looks comfortable playing inside and outside. Great body to add strength as he matures.

Not so much revisionist history.

It was Swift and JT by consensus.

Some Dobbins truthers out there, but they were far from the majority

[Ice]

Obviously a few of us seem to have a different understanding of the word Consensus.

Carry on!

[SoftwoodGrampian]

The consensus is there is no consensus