2021 Rookie Tiers

[CGW]

Im really torn about my Colts.

I would like them to ball out now that they are in the PO.
But I would also like them to trade for Wentz if he can be had cheap.

Am I the only Colts fan who would like a proven QB rather than a rookie that might be the same lever as Rivers (not good enough)

I would much rather take a shot on darnold and get 3 very cheap years of upside, or Trubisky. Wentz is another option, but it would be my least favorite choice as a fan.

Darnold
Rookie
Trubisky
Wentz
Rivers

[murphysxm]

Knowing Ballard from his time in KC it's hard for me to see him move for Wentz. He loves picks and cap space and is thrifty with assets.

This is 100% accurate. Unless Philly eats that contract, there is zero chance that Wentz is a Colt.

[StripesOfKC]

Denver is now far more likely to take a QB

[wickerkat1212]

Following.

[Pullo Vision]

I missed the last few pages of this discussion. I'm totally on board Washington and Atlanta for QB and RB, respectively. I'm curious what Ron Rivera's power is within the franchise- if he truly has power over the new front office execs and Snyder has stepped aside, could be reason for optimism.

Detroit kinda scares me- looks like they want to be run focused and with QB and both starting WR spots up (Golladay and Jones FAs), not certain this will turn out well. Like Cephus last year, I'll consider any rookie draft a potential buy low.

[ravn88]

Im really torn about my Colts.

I would like them to ball out now that they are in the PO.
But I would also like them to trade for Wentz if he can be had cheap.

Am I the only Colts fan who would like a proven QB rather than a rookie that might be the same lever as Rivers (not good enough)

I would much rather take a shot on darnold and get 3 very cheap years of upside, or Trubisky. Wentz is another option, but it would be my least favorite choice as a fan.

Darnold
Rookie
Trubisky
Wentz
Rivers

I like that fact, that he has showed he can be a MVP candidate. With the right People around him.

I might have Stafford first.

Stafford
Trading up for a QB.
Wentz
Ryan
Darnold.

Im will not be happy with Trubisky, or like a 2nd round QB, i think we need to be aggressive in our search for the missing piece.

[CGW]

Im really torn about my Colts.

I would like them to ball out now that they are in the PO.
But I would also like them to trade for Wentz if he can be had cheap.

Am I the only Colts fan who would like a proven QB rather than a rookie that might be the same lever as Rivers (not good enough)

I would much rather take a shot on darnold and get 3 very cheap years of upside, or Trubisky. Wentz is another option, but it would be my least favorite choice as a fan.

Darnold
Rookie
Trubisky
Wentz
Rivers

I like that fact, that he has showed he can be a MVP candidate. With the right People around him.

I might have Stafford first.

Stafford
Trading up for a QB.
Wentz
Ryan
Darnold.

Im will not be happy with Trubisky, or like a 2nd round QB, i think we need to be aggressive in our search for the missing piece.

Stafford could be a very good option. McCafee is doing his best to make it happen. If they can trade for Stafford and pick up another field stretcher in the draft they should be set up nicely for next year.

[Bronco Billy]

I really think Williams ought to be in the top tier and I’d commit heresy and move Etienne down.

I watch Etienne run and I keep seeing CJ Spiller. They both torched overpowered and undermanned weak ACC and non Power 5 Ds running through gaping holes and blowing up tackling angles with their speed, but struggled against better levels of competition despite having so much help around and in front of them. I’m wondering if we won’t see a similar career trajectory once the opponents are ratcheted up in the NFL.

[OhCruelestRanter]

I really think Williams ought to be in the top tier and I’d commit heresy and move Etienne down.

I watch Etienne run and I keep seeing CJ Spiller. They both torched overpowered and undermanned weak ACC and non Power 5 Ds running through gaping holes and blowing up tackling angles with their speed, but struggled against better levels of competition despite having so much help around and in front of them. I’m wondering if we won’t see a similar career trajectory once the opponents are ratcheted up in the NFL.

Etienne is listed at 205 lbs. The encouraging thing is that he really blossomed as a pass catcher this year. I hope he doesn’t weigh less than that, and I hope he doesn’t run a Helaire-esque 4.6+. I don’t mind smaller backs if they’re fast and catch passes.

[cantguardjake]

I really think Williams ought to be in the top tier and I’d commit heresy and move Etienne down.

I watch Etienne run and I keep seeing CJ Spiller. They both torched overpowered and undermanned weak ACC and non Power 5 Ds running through gaping holes and blowing up tackling angles with their speed, but struggled against better levels of competition despite having so much help around and in front of them. I’m wondering if we won’t see a similar career trajectory once the opponents are ratcheted up in the NFL.

Etienne essentially had more rushing yards in his sophomore and junior seasons than Spiller had in his entire 4 year career, and had more touchdowns by the end of his sophomore season.

Etienne has been so good for so long people are just bored of him.

He’ll run closer to a 4.4 than a 4.6.

[Bronco Billy]

I really think Williams ought to be in the top tier and I’d commit heresy and move Etienne down.

I watch Etienne run and I keep seeing CJ Spiller. They both torched overpowered and undermanned weak ACC and non Power 5 Ds running through gaping holes and blowing up tackling angles with their speed, but struggled against better levels of competition despite having so much help around and in front of them. I’m wondering if we won’t see a similar career trajectory once the opponents are ratcheted up in the NFL.

Etienne essentially had more rushing yards in his sophomore and junior seasons than Spiller had in his entire 4 year career, and had more touchdowns by the end of his sophomore season.

Etienne has been so good for so long people are just bored of him.

He’ll run closer to a 4.4 than a 4.6.

I assure you that my concerns are not due to boredom. I worry about his vision and about his elusiveness in tight quarters. I’m not nearly as concerned about his upper body development or fumbling, which are also issues that some latch onto.

He consistently failed to put up anything other than mediocre numbers against teams that were at or near the level of Clemson in most of those games. Despite having enough team talent around him, if he were the best RB in the draft you’d expect to see at least some of those games where he made a significant impact. I see him as functioning best in a RBBC where he’s paired with a pounder who can handle pass protection as well. If so, that is going to limit his upside.

If you just watch highlight reels of him, the thing that jumps off the page is the consistent colors of the uniforms of the opponents he is scorching. Tons of his highlights are against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville, Syracuse, and non-Power 5 teams like Wofford and Georgia Southern. Not so many against the likes of Ohio St, the recent version of Notre Dame, Texas A&M, LSU, and Bama. The holes he was running through against the weaker teams were alarmingly big even to a Wisconsin fan like me. He won’t see those kinds of seams in the NFL - they’ll be smaller and open shorter than those opened against the stronger teams that he didn’t fare nearly as well.

I do see him as having FF value, but not 1.01 value. Miller has him mocked at 1.11 and McShay at 1.16 in the NFL draft. I’m not seeing that - I don’t see him as being on a level of JT, Dobbins, and Swift and maybe at little less than Akers as well - and they all went in the 2nd round.

[Mike11]

I really think Williams ought to be in the top tier and I’d commit heresy and move Etienne down.

I watch Etienne run and I keep seeing CJ Spiller. They both torched overpowered and undermanned weak ACC and non Power 5 Ds running through gaping holes and blowing up tackling angles with their speed, but struggled against better levels of competition despite having so much help around and in front of them. I’m wondering if we won’t see a similar career trajectory once the opponents are ratcheted up in the NFL.

Etienne essentially had more rushing yards in his sophomore and junior seasons than Spiller had in his entire 4 year career, and had more touchdowns by the end of his sophomore season.

Etienne has been so good for so long people are just bored of him.

He’ll run closer to a 4.4 than a 4.6.

I assure you that my concerns are not due to boredom. I worry about his vision and about his elusiveness in tight quarters. I’m not nearly as concerned about his upper body development or fumbling, which are also issues that some latch onto.

He consistently failed to put up anything other than mediocre numbers against teams that were at or near the level of Clemson in most of those games. Despite having enough team talent around him, if he were the best RB in the draft you’d expect to see at least some of those games where he made a significant impact. I see him as functioning best in a RBBC where he’s paired with a pounder who can handle pass protection as well. If so, that is going to limit his upside.

If you just watch highlight reels of him, the thing that jumps off the page is the consistent colors of the uniforms of the opponents he is scorching. Tons of his highlights are against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville, Syracuse, and non-Power 5 teams like Wofford and Georgia Southern. Not so many against the likes of Ohio St, the recent version of Notre Dame, Texas A&M, LSU, and Bama. The holes he was running through against the weaker teams were alarmingly big even to a Wisconsin fan like me. He won’t see those kinds of seams in the NFL - they’ll be smaller and open shorter than those opened against the stronger teams that he didn’t fare nearly as well.

I do see him as having FF value, but not 1.01 value. Miller has him mocked at 1.11 and McShay at 1.16 in the NFL draft. I’m not seeing that - I don’t see him as being on a level of JT, Dobbins, and Swift and maybe at little less than Akers as well - and they all went in the 2nd round.

I couldn't agree more. Etienne is far from bulletproof, is he weighs in at 205, I'll be worried but more than that his tape just doesn't do it for me a lot. He doesn't really run like an rb sometimes. His mentality once he's touched is he goes down very easily in my opinion and he's more straight-line than agile. This isn't to say he can't be good but the only really safe RB in this class seems like Harris. I love Javonte but who knows if he actually gets round 2 capital. If Etienne thought he had a shot as a top 3 back last year I think he would've declared.

He's one of those players where his stats are so bonkers but he passes the eye test way less than Williams does to me.

[OhCruelestRanter]

Etienne essentially had more rushing yards in his sophomore and junior seasons than Spiller had in his entire 4 year career, and had more touchdowns by the end of his sophomore season.

Etienne has been so good for so long people are just bored of him.

He’ll run closer to a 4.4 than a 4.6.

I assure you that my concerns are not due to boredom. I worry about his vision and about his elusiveness in tight quarters. I’m not nearly as concerned about his upper body development or fumbling, which are also issues that some latch onto.

He consistently failed to put up anything other than mediocre numbers against teams that were at or near the level of Clemson in most of those games. Despite having enough team talent around him, if he were the best RB in the draft you’d expect to see at least some of those games where he made a significant impact. I see him as functioning best in a RBBC where he’s paired with a pounder who can handle pass protection as well. If so, that is going to limit his upside.

If you just watch highlight reels of him, the thing that jumps off the page is the consistent colors of the uniforms of the opponents he is scorching. Tons of his highlights are against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville, Syracuse, and non-Power 5 teams like Wofford and Georgia Southern. Not so many against the likes of Ohio St, the recent version of Notre Dame, Texas A&M, LSU, and Bama. The holes he was running through against the weaker teams were alarmingly big even to a Wisconsin fan like me. He won’t see those kinds of seams in the NFL - they’ll be smaller and open shorter than those opened against the stronger teams that he didn’t fare nearly as well.

I do see him as having FF value, but not 1.01 value. Miller has him mocked at 1.11 and McShay at 1.16 in the NFL draft. I’m not seeing that - I don’t see him as being on a level of JT, Dobbins, and Swift and maybe at little less than Akers as well - and they all went in the 2nd round.

I couldn't agree more. Etienne is far from bulletproof, is he weighs in at 205, I'll be worried but more than that his tape just doesn't do it for me a lot. He doesn't really run like an rb sometimes. His mentality once he's touched is he goes down very easily in my opinion and he's more straight-line than agile. This isn't to say he can't be good but the only really safe RB in this class seems like Harris. I love Javonte but who knows if he actually gets round 2 capital. If Etienne thought he had a shot as a top 3 back last year I think he would've declared.

He's one of those players where his stats are so bonkers but he passes the eye test way less than Williams does to me.

Anecdotally, it seems like big RBs who can block and catch passes are the ones who most consistently outperform their size-adjusted athleticism. I agree that Harris seems safe, because he’s 230 lbs and has the ability to catch passes and pass block. He’ll have a chance to monopolize the high-value snaps on third down and in the red zone. I’m sure somebody will complain about his footwork.

Etienne might have higher upside. He was really good in college. He caught a bunch of passes last year. I’m just worried about his speed at 205 lbs. I hope he runs at Clemson’s pro-day, at least.

[cantguardjake]

Etienne might be the only college player I’ve seen judged predominantly on his bowl games because every other game doesn’t count - and he hasn’t even been bad.

His sophomore season he had 156 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Pitt, 117 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown against Notre Dame and 91 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns against Alabama in the natty.

His junior year he had 123 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Virginia Tech, 134 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns against Ohio State and 114 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against LSU in the natty.

His senior year he had 136 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Notre Dame and 96 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Ohio State despite getting injured on a kick return in the second quarter.

The narrative that he beats up on inferior competition has been around for years and I honestly don’t understand it, his worst bowl game has been 91 scrimmage yards since his sophomore season.

[ThunderTung]

Etienne might be the only college player I’ve seen judged predominantly on his bowl games because every other game doesn’t count - and he hasn’t even been bad.

His sophomore season he had 156 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Pitt, 117 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown against Notre Dame and 91 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns against Alabama in the natty.

His junior year he had 123 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Virginia Tech, 134 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns against Ohio State and 114 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against LSU in the natty.

His senior year he had 136 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Notre Dame and 96 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against Ohio State despite getting injured on a kick return in the second quarter.

The narrative that he beats up on inferior competition has been around for years and I honestly don’t understand it, his worst bowl game has been 91 scrimmage yards since his sophomore season.

Im curious, how does Harris' stat lines compare against similar or just good opponents, Bama plays like 2 good teams every year why aren't people getting on him for the same thing?