2021 Rookie Tiers

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failblazer
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2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby failblazer » Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:53 pm

With the 2020 almost season at a close, we should all now have a very good idea where our draft picks for 2021 rookie drafts will fall. With that in mind I am trying to gauge where the tiers are for this class pre-draft so I have a reasonable idea what picks will likely equate to what and whether I can make moves early in the offseason to jump tiers before some of my league mates start their pre-draft work.

Whilst we know that the combine and the NFL draft will effect this, what are everyone's tiers for this class as it stands right now? I haven't had a chance to watch a ton of tape on every single prospect but from a combination of watching guys and compiling the opinions of draft and fantasy analysts that I value, I would say they look like this (with the players in each tier in no particular order and assuming 1QB and PPR scoring):

Tier 1
- RB - Najee Harris
- RB - Travis Etienne
- WR - Ja'Marr Chase

Tier 2
- RB - Javonta Williams
- WR - Devonta Smith
- WR - Rondale Moore
- WR - Rashod Bateman

Tier 3
- WR - Jaylen Waddle
- TE - Kyle Pitts

Tier 4
- QB - Trevor Lawrence
- WR - Terrace Marshall
- WR - Amon-Ra St Brown
- RB - Kenneth Gainwell

That will take most leagues into the bottom of the 1st or into the 2nd rounds and at that point valuations on a lot of guys seem to diverge more and draft capitol and landing spot may effect guys moreso. Guys like Fields, Wilson, Freiermuth, Toney, Dyami Brown, Hubbard, White, the other QB prospects are all in play based on your league but the consensus I have seen seems to point to something close to these being the main tiers so far.

What would be your tiers of the prospects from what you have seen? Who are you high or low on versus these tiers?
16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - 1 Time Champion)
T. Brady, D. Jones, C. Wentz
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, D. Foreman, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, D. Johnson, D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, D. Knox, C. Kmet

C. Young, S. Hubbard
D. Leonard, D. Greenlaw, T. Reeder, N. Kwiakowski, M. Kiser IR, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, A. Amos

16 Team PPR (8th Year Dynasty - Reigning 3 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, T. Brady, P. Rivers
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry, A. Morris, D. Foreman
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, J. Gordon
Z. Ertz, A. Hooper, J. Sternberger, D. Keene, O. HowardIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, T. Reeder, T. Adams, B. Okereke, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, M. Hyde, K. Dugger, B. McDougaldIR

StripesOfKC
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:00 pm

I would switch Waddle and Moore personally or maybe just move Waddle to T2--maybe even just merge T2 and T3
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford
RB: Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, CEH, D'Andre Swift, Damien Harris, Pollard, Cohen, Darrynton Evans
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Gallup, Mims, Pittman, Mooney, Bryan Edwards
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Lutz

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Goedert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

briank
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby briank » Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:10 pm

I have 9 of the first 14 picks and 13 of the first 25 picks in a league, so I'm here for this.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Wilson
RB Mixon/Ja. Williams/Bernard/Davis
WR Thomas/DJ Moore/Robinson/TY/Washington
TE Kelce/Ertz/Cook
Picks 1.03

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Roethlisberger/Fitzpatrick
RB Cook/Zeke/Mixon/Ja. Williams/Hines
WR Evans/Godwin/Golladay/Lockett/Cooks/Fuller/Pittman
TE Kittle/L. Thomas/Tonyan

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Burrow
RB Jacobs/Penny/Dillon/Edwards
WR Adams/Diggs/AJ Brown/Godwin/Woods/Boyd/Ruggs/Davis
TE Kittle/Henry/Njoku/Irv Smith

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 11
QB Jackson/Roethlisberger/Brees
RB Da. Johnson/Gurley
WR Adams/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen/Hilton
TE Kelce/Ertz/Irv

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Goff
RB
WR Jefferson/Juju/Sutton/Juedy/DSamuel
TE Kittle/Fant/Njoku
6 2021 1sts/6 2021 2nds

AussieMate
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby AussieMate » Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:16 pm

StripesOfKC wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:00 pm
I would switch Waddle and Moore personally or maybe just move Waddle to T2--maybe even just merge T2 and T3
Agreed, if anyone was to stay in T3 it would be Bateman for me, and thats not going off this years performance, he was already below the others for me before this year. I can see why you would move Moore down but I'd keep him in T2 just on his huge potential, if he hits he could be T1 (and yes I know if anyone hits they could be T1 hahaha).

I'm also not sure if I'm ready to have Williams in T2 but with the RB scarcity this year it'll happen regardless. I still personally have Chase in his own standing above the others with Smith coming in hot behind.

StripesOfKC
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby StripesOfKC » Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:24 pm

AussieMate wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:16 pm
StripesOfKC wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:00 pm
I would switch Waddle and Moore personally or maybe just move Waddle to T2--maybe even just merge T2 and T3
Agreed, if anyone was to stay in T3 it would be Bateman for me, and thats not going off this years performance, he was already below the others for me before this year. I can see why you would move Moore down but I'd keep him in T2 just on his huge potential, if he hits he could be T1 (and yes I know if anyone hits they could be T1 hahaha).

I'm also not sure if I'm ready to have Williams in T2 but with the RB scarcity this year it'll happen regardless. I still personally have Chase in his own standing above the others with Smith coming in hot behind.
Javonte at T2 is probably an intermediate

Right now he is probably T3 but if he gets 2nd round capital and a decent landing spot I have a hard time putting him a full tier below Najee/ETN and probably move him to T1

Bateman is my WR2 though. He just pops off on film to me.

I agree on Chase being a clear first among WRs though
Team 1

8 Team PPR
2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K
2019-20 Champion
QB: Burrow, Tannehill, Stafford
RB: Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins, CEH, D'Andre Swift, Damien Harris, Pollard, Cohen, Darrynton Evans
WR: AJ Brown, McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Julio, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Chark, Gallup, Mims, Pittman, Mooney, Bryan Edwards
TE: Kittle, Hockenson, Gesicki, Trautman
D: Steelers
K: Lutz

2021: 1.6
2022: 3 1sts, 1 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4ths
2023: 2 1sts, 3 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th

Team 2

IDP Orphan 12 Team 1 QB PPR 0.5 Pt Per Comp, -0.5 Pt for Incomp
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Tua
RB: Mixon, CEH, Michel, James White
WR: Lockett, Gallup, Justin Jefferson, Reagor, Mims
TE: Gesicki, Goedert

DL: Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jeffrey Simmons
LB: Brian Burns, Logan Wilson, Jordyn Brooks, K'Lavon Chiasson
DB: Marlon Humphrey, Eddie Jackson, Chuck Clark, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Dugger

jenkins.math
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:26 pm

I would move both Pitts and Lawrence up a tier. I think both of those guys are going top 8 in fantasy drafts regardless of format this year.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
K: Butker
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DL: Buckner
LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

failblazer
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby failblazer » Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:40 pm

briank wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:10 pm
I have 9 of the first 14 picks and 13 of the first 25 picks in a league, so I'm here for this.
Normally I would tell people in rebuilds to trade down so you can draft in volume. Can't really trade with yourself though.
StripesOfKC wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:00 pm
I would switch Waddle and Moore personally or maybe just move Waddle to T2--maybe even just merge T2 and T3
I have seen Moore as high as the WR1 or WR2 in this class. I never see Waddle above WR4. I like Waddle a lot and am hoping to get a lot of shares of him, that was more a ranking based on where I have seen others take him, he seems to be at the bottom of the top 5 WRs.
AussieMate wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:16 pm
I'm also not sure if I'm ready to have Williams in T2 but with the RB scarcity this year it'll happen regardless. I still personally have Chase in his own standing above the others with Smith coming in hot behind.
Williams seems to have been a huge riser the last few months and I think a lot of people are baking day two capitol into his price. Obviously if he ends up a fifth round pick to the Browns then he'll fall but I see a lot of people mocking him as moving closer and closer to the top 4. I think, NFL draft dependent of course, that he will be the #3 pick in a lot of drafts in the offseason based on how shallow the position is this year. If you are really short of RBs then you better have a top 3-4 pick or hope to heck that Hubbard or Gainwell end up with a starting gig somehow.
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:26 pm
I would move both Pitts and Lawrence up a tier. I think both of those guys are going top 8 in fantasy drafts regardless of format this year.
I had them as a separate tier purely because around 8-9 seems to be where they fall. The don't deviate to much from that range, whereas all the guys higher than them seem to have some people who rank them higher or lower within their range.
16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - 1 Time Champion)
T. Brady, D. Jones, C. Wentz
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, D. Foreman, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, D. Johnson, D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, D. Knox, C. Kmet

C. Young, S. Hubbard
D. Leonard, D. Greenlaw, T. Reeder, N. Kwiakowski, M. Kiser IR, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, A. Amos

16 Team PPR (8th Year Dynasty - Reigning 3 Time Champion)
A. Rodgers, T. Brady, P. Rivers
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry, A. Morris, D. Foreman
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, J. Gordon
Z. Ertz, A. Hooper, J. Sternberger, D. Keene, O. HowardIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, T. Reeder, T. Adams, B. Okereke, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, M. Hyde, K. Dugger, B. McDougaldIR

SoftwoodGrampian
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:46 pm

When push comes to shove, the QB falls in a single QB. Add in the depth. Move T LAW down a tier.

briank
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby briank » Tue Dec 22, 2020 3:57 pm

failblazer wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:40 pm
briank wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:10 pm
I have 9 of the first 14 picks and 13 of the first 25 picks in a league, so I'm here for this.
Normally I would tell people in rebuilds to trade down so you can draft in volume. Can't really trade with yourself though.
StripesOfKC wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:00 pm
I would switch Waddle and Moore personally or maybe just move Waddle to T2--maybe even just merge T2 and T3
I have seen Moore as high as the WR1 or WR2 in this class. I never see Waddle above WR4. I like Waddle a lot and am hoping to get a lot of shares of him, that was more a ranking based on where I have seen others take him, he seems to be at the bottom of the top 5 WRs.
AussieMate wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:16 pm
I'm also not sure if I'm ready to have Williams in T2 but with the RB scarcity this year it'll happen regardless. I still personally have Chase in his own standing above the others with Smith coming in hot behind.
Williams seems to have been a huge riser the last few months and I think a lot of people are baking day two capitol into his price. Obviously if he ends up a fifth round pick to the Browns then he'll fall but I see a lot of people mocking him as moving closer and closer to the top 4. I think, NFL draft dependent of course, that he will be the #3 pick in a lot of drafts in the offseason based on how shallow the position is this year. If you are really short of RBs then you better have a top 3-4 pick or hope to heck that Hubbard or Gainwell end up with a starting gig somehow.
jenkins.math wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 2:26 pm
I would move both Pitts and Lawrence up a tier. I think both of those guys are going top 8 in fantasy drafts regardless of format this year.
I had them as a separate tier purely because around 8-9 seems to be where they fall. The don't deviate to much from that range, whereas all the guys higher than them seem to have some people who rank them higher or lower within their range.
Yeah, I'll probably use some of my picks to move up, but I'm usually pretty active during these drafts moving up and down depending on how the board falls.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Wilson
RB Mixon/Ja. Williams/Bernard/Davis
WR Thomas/DJ Moore/Robinson/TY/Washington
TE Kelce/Ertz/Cook
Picks 1.03

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Roethlisberger/Fitzpatrick
RB Cook/Zeke/Mixon/Ja. Williams/Hines
WR Evans/Godwin/Golladay/Lockett/Cooks/Fuller/Pittman
TE Kittle/L. Thomas/Tonyan

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Burrow
RB Jacobs/Penny/Dillon/Edwards
WR Adams/Diggs/AJ Brown/Godwin/Woods/Boyd/Ruggs/Davis
TE Kittle/Henry/Njoku/Irv Smith

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 11
QB Jackson/Roethlisberger/Brees
RB Da. Johnson/Gurley
WR Adams/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen/Hilton
TE Kelce/Ertz/Irv

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Goff
RB
WR Jefferson/Juju/Sutton/Juedy/DSamuel
TE Kittle/Fant/Njoku
6 2021 1sts/6 2021 2nds

Cameron Giles
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Dec 22, 2020 6:21 pm

Would move Pitts to Tier 1, Marshall to Tier 2, Lawrence to Tier 1.

blemly
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby blemly » Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:04 pm

In SF, there is a clear T5 to me making up the first tier: Lawrence, Fields, Harris, Etienne, and Chase.
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Cousins, Darnold
RB: CMC, Gibson, Cohen
WR: DK, Godwin, Chark, Diontae, Samuel, Hollywood, Shepard, Mims
TE: Hurst, Knox

Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TE Prem:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Foles, Mullens
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen
WR: DJM, Sutton, Landry, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Trautman

Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Cam
RB: Kamara, Jacobs, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, McLaurin, Woods, Perriman, Shenault
TE: Gesicki, OJH

Team 4 (Rebuild): 12-team PPR SF TE Prem
QB: Watson, Stafford
RB: Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Gibson
WR: Lamb, Diontae, Pittman, Mims, Shenault, Campbell, Shepard
TE: Knox, Jarwin, Trautman
2021: 1,1,2,2

Team 5 (Rebuild): 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak
RB: Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Pittman, Edwards, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Hamler
TE: Herndon, Gesicki
2021: 1,1,1,1, 2

bjd5211
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:34 pm

blemly wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:04 pm
In SF, there is a clear T5 to me making up the first tier: Lawrence, Fields, Harris, Etienne, and Chase.
In SF Lawrence is tier 1 by himself.

blemly
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby blemly » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:11 pm

bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:34 pm
blemly wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 7:04 pm
In SF, there is a clear T5 to me making up the first tier: Lawrence, Fields, Harris, Etienne, and Chase.
In SF Lawrence is tier 1 by himself.
Yea that’s completely right. I think there is a decent drop after 1.05 is more of what I meant.
Team 1: 12-team SF 0.5 PPR:
QB: Dak, Cousins, Darnold
RB: CMC, Gibson, Cohen
WR: DK, Godwin, Chark, Diontae, Samuel, Hollywood, Shepard, Mims
TE: Hurst, Knox

Team 2: 14-team PPR SF TE Prem:
QB: Wilson, Burrow, Foles, Mullens
RB: Mixon, Gibson, Hines, Cohen
WR: DJM, Sutton, Landry, Renfrow
TE: Gesicki, Njoku, Trautman

Team 3: 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Watson, Lawrence, Cam
RB: Kamara, Jacobs, Dobbins
WR: Hill, AJB, McLaurin, Woods, Perriman, Shenault
TE: Gesicki, OJH

Team 4 (Rebuild): 12-team PPR SF TE Prem
QB: Watson, Stafford
RB: Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Gibson
WR: Lamb, Diontae, Pittman, Mims, Shenault, Campbell, Shepard
TE: Knox, Jarwin, Trautman
2021: 1,1,2,2

Team 5 (Rebuild): 12-team PPR SF:
QB: Dak
RB: Sanders, Dobbins, Pollard
WR: Sutton, DJM, Pittman, Edwards, Kirk, Campbell, Mims, Hamler
TE: Herndon, Gesicki
2021: 1,1,1,1, 2

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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby ThunderTung » Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:37 pm

Najee scares me a bit. Hoping he has more of a Henry start to his career so I can get him for cheap later on lol
12 man IDP 0.5 ppr
Picks(2021):1.01,1.04,2.01,2.05,2.07
QB(1): Hurts
RB(2): Sanders/Harris
WR(2): Edelman/Lamb
TE(1): Goedert
FLEX(2): Hardman/Kirk
K: Jake Elliot
DL(2): Ngakoue/Hicks
LB(2): Hicks/J. Smith
DB(2) Devin McCourty/Mathieu
FLEX: Murray

Bench:
QB: Mayfield/Foles
RB: Barber/JJ Taylor/Burkhead/Ollison
WR: S. Miller/Sims/Campbell/Robinson/ KJ Hill/Meyers
TE: Gronk/Sternberger/Asiasi/Keene
DL: Dex. Lawrence/Allen
LB: Chubb/Barrett/Whitehead/Bentley/Vigil/Jones
DB: Gilmore/Sorenson

SoftwoodGrampian
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Re: 2021 Rookie Tiers

Postby SoftwoodGrampian » Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:44 pm



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