Worst Luck I've ever had in Dynasty

[colt77]

This season has went wrong for me in every imaginable way. Strap on in if you want to read about my fantasy misfortunes.

Off rip, I'm in the 3rd year of dynasty and have won the past two years. Before the season I did a major trade where I swapped firsts with a bad team in which I gave him a lot to sweeten the pot. So I had his first and my team was stacked with Lamar, Barkley, MT, Hill, Kupp, the works. Week 1 of my campaign, I start off getting 100 point clubbed and MT getting hurt on what would be like an 8 week injury. Next week, Barkley tears his acl and I lose by 5. Luckily James Robinson picks it up and I trade for Connor to try to make a run at playoffs as it was still early in the year.

Around this same time period Kittle gets hurt and so I'm left without my TE1, but determined, I plan out my schedule and figure I can lose 3 games and need to win out the rest, but first game of my run, I end up losing in a heart breaker to a team I should have killed on paper. I continue on and start winning to the point where playoffs looks decently attainable as long as I don't lose 2 games. Right when my hopes get raised I lose by less than a point to one of the worst guys in the league because Lockett dropped 50. I was up by like 36 coming in to that game. He just kept catching TDS. The kicker is, how i lost by a point though. It all came down to a monday game where the Rams played the bears and I had Kupp who was doing well. Coming into the fourth I'm down by one, so I just need one single catch, but Goff didn't throw the ball at all, a single time, in the entire fourth quarter.

So, at that point I decide to give up and tank but I didn't have my first, so I traded James Robinson for what would be a top 6 pick which experts told me was a win. Flash forward and Robinson is a monster and looks to continue to be an RB1 next year, so I've been sore about that. The pick will only end up with fourth odds because I couldn't even lose properly. Next, I traded Conner right after Robinson for a struggling guys first. This actually is alright, because I don't care for Conner long term, but the bad luck continued. Looking at the playoff schedule in like week 10 it was shaping up that I would get two lottery picks maybe even 3! I just needed simple games to go my way. One was the best team in the league beating the struggling team, which the struggling team pulled off in a miraculous victory and then the two guys that were projected 5th and 6th over the two firsts I owned both had 6 wins in week 11 and lost out the remaining 3, meaning my three lottery picks turned into just one with the other two guys in playoffs.

The worst luck I had happened this past week though. I was playing against one of the guys whose pick I owned and If I won he was out of playoffs. Even if I didn't win one of the 6 win teams I mentioned was going against a bad team and if he beat that guy, the guy I was playing was out anyways. It turns out that the 6 win team lost to a bad team and then I lost to the guy I need to beat by a point. Some of the things that happened in this matchup was Frank Gore getting 0.2 and going out after his first carry in a game where 2 jets RBs put up 200 and then Tyreek Hill getting two TDS wiped off the board. Keep in mind I only lost by a point, and then Tonight I had Lamar Jackson vs his Amari Cooper +9 that he had. It starts off and Lamar is dealing and Cooper was having a quiet game so I'm up like 8.5 all the way until the end of the fourth quarter where on 4th down Dalton hits Cooper for a TD making me up just a point. I think ok as long as they run the clock out here, I'll be fine. Nope, cowboys kick an onside and Ravens score without Lamar doing anything and the next drive Cooper catches one single pass on a meaningless drive and I lose by one singular point. Literally nothing went my way this season. My only saving grace is next week both of the guys whose picks I own are both expected to lose, but knowing my luck this year they'll clutch it out screwing me even more. Sorry for the long winded rant, but I had to vent and hopefully typing this out makes it feel less bad. Anyone else have close to the same luck in fantasy before?

Edit: Realized I could have structured this better, so hopefully it flows well and sorry for the use of guy continuously, I should have used names.

Edit 2: Decided to add a TLDR: Essentially I have a championship roster that was decimated by injuries (Barkley, Kittle, MT for 8weeks, Sutton), Lose in multiple heart breakers where I was projected to win with a sometimes 99% projection, Make a trade that seems bad in hindsight after being assured it was great, and then lose out on 2 lottery picks that were almost assured had the 5th and 6th seeds not lost in surprising defeats for 3 weeks in a row. Almost felt like this season was my destiny with how unexcepted results kept occurring.

Edit 3: Also wanted to say I'm not blaming everything on luck, and that i'm very grateful for my past wins, I just threw that in the beginning to lay out how high my expectations were before the year.

[Dibbles]

Skimming a few lines looks rough indeed but honestly you lost me at "I won the last two years" . . . be happy you were fortunate enough to win 2 out of 3 years, this game of primarily skill still has a significant amount of luck involved so enjoy it while it rains and take your lumps while it pours. You are obviously on a very solid and successful track, stay the course!

I've been the 1 seed for 4 years running (5 including this year) and have yet to finish 1st in any of those years. Would much rather be your team.

[colt77]

Skimming a few lines looks rough indeed but honestly you lost me at "I won the last two years" . . . be happy you were fortunate enough to win 2 out of 3 years, this game of primarily skill still has a significant amount of luck involved so enjoy it while it rains and take your lumps while it pours. You are obviously on a very solid and successful track, stay the course!

I've been the 1 seed for 4 years running (5 including this year) and have yet to finish 1st in any of those years. Would much rather be your team.

Thanks for the perspective. I've had some time to cool off and have just kind of accepted that this wasn't my year, but its tough when the stuff keeps pouring on. I also think i've been spoiled the past two years so i'm having a hard fall back down to earth. Good luck with your playoffs, if you win and remember come back to this post and let me know about it!

[SteelLake]

Yea, I stopped reading after I got to the “first year I didn’t win it all” bit too

I’ve been through long multi-year stretches of best team not winning it all. I’ve seen people lead leagues with highest all-play and points not make playoffs... and every year there’s a team that gets crushed by injuries.

It sucks, but it’s part of the game. One thing I’ve noticed - I’m quick to complain when I get unlucky, but not realize when I get lucky (guy I wasn’t even huge on but owns breaks out, have a healthy year, etc)

Hopefully luck swings your way next year!

[Kurtrambis1]

Those are some bad breaks but I actually like those trades for you, especially the Conner one. When everyone is healthy next year you’ll have another great shot to win.

The worst luck I’ve had playing fantasy was having the most points scored in the league by far (over 600 points over the next person) but finishing 9th. It was incredibly frustrating and hilarious to watch it unfold every week. But because of it we now have our last two playoff spots based off of points scored which has worked out great for the league.

[abloom]

Bad luck?
No, just bad execution, lets look at what happened:

(1) You lost barkley, but you gained Robinson. We can see now, that while you are losing a great player, and certainly Barkley + Robinson is better than Robinson (or barkley) alone, going into the season this is essentially a push.

(2) Trade for conner. Unless you got him cheap, probably not a great move.

(3) You lost kittle. Well thats unfortunate, now you are just like all the other teams in the league without Kelce or Waller.

(4) Lockett getting 50. While likely a big week for the team having him, Kittle also put up a huge game early in the season (of course depends on TE premium settings if any). How much higher was the team's score this week than last?

(5) Kupp not getting a catch. Well I'm going to assume that the rams were up, and that chicago still had their great defense/pass defense earlier in the season than now. Maybe you should have considered a different starter in that game?

(6) Decide to tank. So you lose a couple close matchups and kittle and you decide you need to tank? That's bad process. If you truly had a good team and this was all because of bad luck, the answer is not to fold, its to ride it out, since over time your team should be better than others. Additionally, if you were going to tank, you should have acquired your first back. Otherwise you are sacrificing players for picks, but not benefitting from the loss of production.

(7) Trading away Robinson: Trying to get a top half first is admirable, and it does depend on when the trade actually occurred. But given your team and knowing that Barkley is likely going to be coming back this year, Robinson is likely better for 2021 than any RB that you could have gotten in the top 6 picks (again solely for 2021). Additionally, you said it was for a potential top 6 pick. Did this also factor the team getting in a top RB for 2020?

(8) Conner trade: GREAT MOVE! I would have moved him for any first I could get, a struggling first, definitely sign me up. This was probably the best thing you did all year, I just hope you got more for him than you gave up to acquire him.

(9) Failure to win week 13: Well you were trying to tank and you traded away better RB options. That's what happens, you can get an injury. He wouldn't have been playing had you kept Robinson. Teams tanking shouldn't really be shocked that they lose.


Overall:
A lot of your "bad luck" was more bad process. Of course I have the advantage of being able to look back at the moves while you are doing it in the moment. I do think that you decision to tank was very poorly executed.

Best of luck in the off season.


I also just want to quickly say: I realize that this post may seem harsh, that's not the intention. It is only to look at the previous seasons moves and look at the thought process. As I said I have the advantage of looking back at the season whereas you made these trades/moves in the moment. I also certainly have made more than my fair share of bad moves this year and am not infallible.

[M-Dub]

I feel your pain. Team 1 had made the playoffs the past three years, including two runner up finishes. My projected starting lineup (outside of bye weeks) was:
Wilson
CMC, Mixon
Keenan, Godwin, Golladay, Woods
Ertz

Those eight guys have yet to take the field for me at the same time. Hoping week 14 finally snaps that streak, but at this point I’m just playing for the 1.13 and I don’t have my own 1st.

Meanwhile, Team 2 was a team I took over last year and wound up leading to a championship. My projected starting lineup for that team was:
Dak
CMC, Sanders, DJ
Julio, Lockett, ARob
Kelce

During the season, I traded DJ, ARob and Lockett for Mixon and Dobbins. Still like those deals long term, but they obviously didn’t help me this year. Wound up finishing 10th in that league. Don’t have my 1st and there’s no 1.13 tourney in this league.

Team 3 was actually a rebuild from the get-go, but my team wound up overachieving a bit and I ended up with the 1.04 despite being 11th in potential points. I at least have a bunch of cap space and picks to work with (1.04, 1.06, 2.04, 2.07, 3.01, 3.10), and I have an outside shot at the 1.13, but I’m probably gonna have to find a way to trade into the top two to get Etienne or Harris.

Just a brutal year all around.

[sct]

I started the year with Lamar, Saquon, Dalvin, Austin, MT, Tyler, DJM, Terry, George and didn't make the 8 team playoffs. 2nd in total points despite the triage, but no h2h luck.

[Jigga94]

I started the year with Lamar, Saquon, Dalvin, Austin, MT, Tyler, DJM, Terry, George and didn't make the 8 team playoffs. 2nd in total points despite the triage, but no h2h luck.

I like how you called them Austin, Tyler and George lol

[CGW]

Well 90% of this game is luck. Can't control injuries, it happens to most of my teams every year.

You made a couple good moves and bad moves. Hindsight is 20/20. Be thankful you won in the past and keep playing the odds. If you won every year the league would fall apart pretty quickly due to the competition being garbage.

[TaquitoPeddler]

I used to get quite angry when I experienced bad luck seasons like the one you're experiencing now. I've had to learn to go zen and emotionally distance from the end results and just enjoy the process of building a team. Luck plays such a huge factor in it. You can do everything you can to gather the best possible talent, but injuries, matchups, real life coaching, etc are totally out of our control. In one dynasty league I've reached the championship 3 years in a row... only to lose them all. One year I made it to the championship of one dynasty and three redrafts... lost them all. My friends in these leagues call me the Buffalo Bills of fantasy.

[honcho55]

Love it!

Not only is bad luck ‘just part of the game’, so is whining about bad luck! It’s no joke part of the fun for me.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Love it!

Not only is bad luck ‘just part of the game’, so is whining about bad luck! It’s no joke part of the fun for me.

Lol true. Is it really dynasty unless you have something to complain about? I contend not.

[jman3134]

Be thankful you didn't have two players injured on average in game per week. That neglects to account for the multi week injuries: Barkley, Ekeler, Mixon, Brees, Kittle, John Brown, Edelman, Steven Sims, Jordan Reed, OJ Howard, among others like Julio/Diontae.

[MucBuc]

I advocated my league to implement fractional points. Then later that year, I went on to the championship game and lost by 0.3 points.
However, I never got really mad about this, as it was exactly what I asked for. I think the disappointment would have been much worse if we ended up with a tie and had to make up some procedure to determine a winner.