Justin Herbert Long Term

[FantasyFreak]

He doesn't have Andy Reid designing the offense, and he started as a rookie. He's bigger, stronger, and honestly, I think he's a better decision maker than Mahomes. Watching him going through his progressions last night, I was super impressed. Can't go wrong with Mahomes, but I would take Herbert over him.

Call me Old Fashioned, but I'll take the guy that has already won a League MVP and a Superbowl, and shown that he's up for lifting his franchise to make those plays on the biggest stages in the most pressure-filled moments.

Last I checked, the point of these franchises is to win the big games. Happy to re-evaluate Herbert in big-games... y'know... if he ever gets there.

Starting as a Rookie is a nice argument point. Mahomes went throw-for-throw against Tom Brady as a Sophomore in the AFC Championship game. What'd Herbert do? No offense, but give me that guy over "I've never wanted to tie so bad" Herbert who couldn't beat the Ruggs-less, Gruden-less Raiders to punch his own ticket to his first post-season in his 2nd year on the job.

(Y'know... that very same team that Mahomes put over his knee and spanked like a drum this season... twice)

Situations were completely different. Put Herbert in KC, I'm pretty sure the Chiefs aren't going to get worse. To each their own, but I think Herbert, in a vacuum, is the guy I'd want. The arguments people use about QB's like they are starting pitchers in baseball or something, is silly. It's a team game, and clearly KC has the better team and coach, and that's a huge reason for the different set of circumstances. I like Herbert's game more, both are great players.

[mild]

Situations were completely different. Put Herbert in KC, I'm pretty sure the Chiefs aren't going to get worse. To each their own, but I think Herbert, in a vacuum, is the guy I'd want. The arguments people use about QB's like they are starting pitchers in baseball or something, is silly. It's a team game, and clearly KC has the better team and coach, and that's a huge reason for the different set of circumstances. I like Herbert's game more, both are great players.

At the start of this year, there were countless posts and threads around these parts concerning the classic "known quantity vs. shiny new thing" quandary... namely "Would you prefer Burrow or Trevor Lawrence?"

Rightly, the correct answer among the less-prone to recency bias was "I would take Burrow because he's shown he can actually play in this league".

Why would this logic fail you here, if the point of these Franchises is "to win Superbowls" and you have one QB who has literally made brain-busting throws to win one (not to mention get there in the first place) - and the other is a sight-unseen unknown quantity in big games? The fact that he can't even get there with a stacked supporting cast has to be held as a knock against him, unfortunately.

Perhaps the Chiefs look somewhat the same with Herbert behind their line. But so long as we're making hair-brained excuses in the realms of non-reality, I'd be willing to gamble that on the flip side... Mahomes finds a way to make the Playoffs if he was on that nearly-as-talented Chargers team, and needing no-better-than-a-tie to get there against that godawful Raiders team that he loves to beat every year he's been in the league.

[FantasyFreak]

Situations were completely different. Put Herbert in KC, I'm pretty sure the Chiefs aren't going to get worse. To each their own, but I think Herbert, in a vacuum, is the guy I'd want. The arguments people use about QB's like they are starting pitchers in baseball or something, is silly. It's a team game, and clearly KC has the better team and coach, and that's a huge reason for the different set of circumstances. I like Herbert's game more, both are great players.

At the start of this year, there were countless posts and threads around these parts concerning the classic "known quantity vs. shiny new thing" quandary... namely "Would you prefer Burrow or Trevor Lawrence?"

Rightly, the correct answer among the less-prone to recency bias was "I would take Burrow because he's shown he can actually play in this league".

Why would this logic fail you here, if the point of these Franchises is "to win Superbowls" and you have one QB who has literally made brain-busting throws to win one (not to mention get there in the first place) - and the other is a sight-unseen unknown quantity in big games? The fact that he can't even get there with a stacked supporting cast has to be held as a knock against him, unfortunately.

Perhaps the Chiefs look somewhat the same with Herbert behind their line. But so long as we're making hair-brained excuses in the realms of non-reality, I'd be willing to gamble that on the flip side... Mahomes finds a way to make the Playoffs if he was on that nearly-as-talented Chargers team, and needing no-better-than-a-tie to get there against that godawful Raiders team that he loves to beat every year he's been in the league.

You're acting like the Chargers coach isn't an idiot, though, and that Herbert is somehow responsible for them losing. Are you seriously saying Herbert was somehow responsible for them losing that game? I mean, again, you're blaming the QB for deficiencies elsewhere within the team/organization. Herbert's play is the last thing that kept this Chargers team from the playoffs. To each their own, but I'd take Herbert over Mahomes, as I like his skill set better. Andy Reid is a huge part of the equation, as well as organizational stability, when it comes to Mahomes, and I think Herbert lacks that, comparatively, is his situation. Anyone, no sense in going on about it, I have my opinion, you yours.

[Ice]

The league is lucky to have several great QB’s.

Mahomes and Herbert are different type players. Mahomes is great off script but his mechanics are not nearly as sound as Herbert. They are both artists at the position.

Long term I like Herbert. He is bigger and stronger.

It’s splitting hairs a bit though as both should be great for years.

Josh Allen is in the top 3 and my current #1 fantasy QB.

Burrow is right on their heels IMO.

[CGW]

NFL Research: Herbert has 56 touchdowns (combined passing and rushing) in his first 23 games, the third-most by a quarterback in his first 25 games since the NFL merger. Ahead of him: Patrick Mahomes (70) and Deshaun Watson (57).

Those are now two very different career paths. Choose wisely.

One was drafted by a super bowl contender, the other by a dumpster fire?

[Ice]

NFL Research: Herbert has 56 touchdowns (combined passing and rushing) in his first 23 games, the third-most by a quarterback in his first 25 games since the NFL merger. Ahead of him: Patrick Mahomes (70) and Deshaun Watson (57).

Those are now two very different career paths. Choose wisely.

One was drafted by a super bowl contender, the other by a dumpster fire?

Plus no need to really mention but Herbert was the slightly better fantasy player this year by about a point per contest.

[CGW]

Herbert is great. Easily a top 6 QB long term for me in fantasy, and probably higher in real football. Allen, Mahommes, Burrow, Herbert, Murray, Jackson all make a strong cornerstone for fantasy teams and I wouldn't be too upset about any of them.

I talked myself out of drafting him when he went back to school and slipped in rankings. Still had him as #2 in the class, but I was too worried about picking all of the RBs in that class with any 1sts I had. Bummer.

[lic217]

Special player.

[Patsfan86]

Herbert is going to win MVP some day and will be the QB1 in fantasy one season within the next few years, i dont think this is in question. He is a special player and having him and Mahomes in the same division will be like Brady vs Manning, thats fun. QBs however are judged (fairly or unfairly) on winning games and Super Bowls. Im not sure the Chargers are set up for him to win a super bowl within the next few years, then his rookie contract will end and the chargers are gonna have to break the bank for him. Once the chargers break the bank for Herbert all of this becomes even harder. It will be an interesting next few years to see what happens but i can unfortunately see this turning into "Herberts great but when is he gonna get over the hump?'

[Space Cowboy]

NFL Research: Herbert has 56 touchdowns (combined passing and rushing) in his first 23 games, the third-most by a quarterback in his first 25 games since the NFL merger. Ahead of him: Patrick Mahomes (70) and Deshaun Watson (57).

Those are now two very different career paths. Choose wisely.

One was drafted by a super bowl contender, the other by a dumpster fire?

The Chiefs weren't a super bowl contender until Mahomes showed up.

[FantasyFreak]

Those are now two very different career paths. Choose wisely.

One was drafted by a super bowl contender, the other by a dumpster fire?

The Chiefs weren't a super bowl contender until Mahomes showed up.

Sure they were. They were 12-4 in 2016 and narrowly lost in the divisional round 18-16. They were certainly a SB contender that year. Regardless, they had a roster Mahomes was able to step onto and be competitive instantly. He definitely helped them get over the hump, but they were definitely a team that was capable of contending when he arrived.

[Mjvb5]

One was drafted by a super bowl contender, the other by a dumpster fire?

The Chiefs weren't a super bowl contender until Mahomes showed up.

Sure they were. They were 12-4 in 2016 and narrowly lost in the divisional round 18-16. They were certainly a SB contender that year. Regardless, they had a roster Mahomes was able to step onto and be competitive instantly. He definitely helped them get over the hump, but they were definitely a team that was capable of contending when he arrived.

Weren't they a top flight offense with Alex Smith during pats rookie ride the bench year? I remember a Lotta whatre they doing when they traded smith after his almost in mvp talk year

[StripesOfKC]

NFL Research: Herbert has 56 touchdowns (combined passing and rushing) in his first 23 games, the third-most by a quarterback in his first 25 games since the NFL merger. Ahead of him: Patrick Mahomes (70) and Deshaun Watson (57).

Mahomes got to sit a year and has one of the best head coaches of the past 2 decades. The start to Herberts career was just about the polar opposite.

Herbert looks like Trevor Lawrence will in a couple years when the Jags fire everyone (again). Love 'em both.

I'm sorry what?

As much as I disagree on Herbert>Mahomes there can't seriously be anyone who thinks Lawrence is better than him but just in a "worse situation" right?

[FantasyFreak]

Mahomes got to sit a year and has one of the best head coaches of the past 2 decades. The start to Herberts career was just about the polar opposite.

Herbert looks like Trevor Lawrence will in a couple years when the Jags fire everyone (again). Love 'em both.

I'm sorry what?

As much as I disagree on Herbert>Mahomes there can't seriously be anyone who thinks Lawrence is better than him but just in a "worse situation" right?

To be fair, this was made in November. Lawrence isn't close to as good as Herbert, no. I've never been a fan, TBH. Not sure what Pederson will do, but he didn't exactly do a great job developing anybody in Philly.

[cazzie33]

Pederson is good at giving you easy targets to backs & TE in a dump off scheme that should help T. Law with occasional shots downfield. Didn’t watch much or read much about the o-line to know if they are the bigger problem or T. Law was lost reading defenses. Pederson is going to likely simplify that as if he’s got a 2nd year rookie qb (which essentially he does)

Now Herbert & Mahomes are both much bigger arms than Lawrence but Lawrence has an above avg arm too. Brady proved you don’t have to have a bazooka to be very good in this lg. Mahomes is like Elway was in that he can make plays athletically like no one else when you combine his legs & arm but so far like Elway he hasn’t mastered the moments in big games like Montana , Brady or Bart Starr going way back. None were the most athletic , just they were more consistently great in the clutch. Time will tell if Mahomes can eliminate the brain fart moments or how Josh & Herbert will handle them as a whole. Lawrence can’t be judged by the Urban Meyer fiasco of a season from the very beginning

Herbert is right there with Allen & Mahomes for the top spot. Allen is used more as a running threat which will probably make him number one in the short term but ultimately cost him as his body breaks down earlier (a la Elway limping around & shoulder injuries zapping a lot of what his arm used to be ; think Big Ben too) Will Mahomes learn to quit trying to be Superman ? Will Herbert be the new Marino w/ more athletic ability but stuck on a team that just can’t put it together to get in championship games.
Going forward any one of them could be the fantasy number one while not winning titles which so many act like that is the ultimate evidence of who is better. Allen played better yet lost this year. Burrow played nowhere near as well as Allen but his defense played light years better than the Bills against Mahomes. Same for Herbert in the final game loss vs Raiders. Yet many use those games as “evidence” that they couldn’t beat x,y,z team when it counted most. That’s lame analysis but an easy go to if you don’t like the guy.

I’m an old school guy who realizes there’s a difference between being the best player @ your position vs being the best for your team type player in order to win . How you perform in the clutch vs piling statistics in blowouts meaningless plays. Herbert showed that with the season on the line he consistently made clutch throws or runs to give his team a chance. Now can he do it over time. Can he play with the lead and put teams away instead of succumbing to the playing “not to lose” like so many guys wilt under. The Texans loss was more on the defense but he didn’t do his part either. Some guys don’t perform as well in the favorite role & the pressure that comes with it as the game gets away from them. Mahomes was a victim to it more than once this year trying to do too much.

My view is Allen is #1 and at his peak , Mahomes and Herbert a dead heat but Justin is on the rise while Mahomes has already peaked. Kelce is going to get to his decline soon and teams have seemed to figure it out how to take away most of the big splash plays from Tyreek. If not for the garbage “TAP” passes @ the goal line his stats wouldn’t be so impressive but I think that the Walrus loves it just as much to pad his GENIUS credentials. So glad it cost them @ the end of the 1st halfalthough it was right to call a pass there they (Mahomes ) got too cute.

Be interesting going forward but I’d give Herbert every chance to come out as the best of the bunch in the long haul