The Kyle "Is not the" Pitts Thread

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mls
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The Kyle "Is not the" Pitts Thread

Postby mls » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:58 am

I am not one to target a TE in the first round of a rookie draft. But Kyle Pitts is a fantastic prospect at the position. Would anybody target him in the first round. If so, where in the round would you make the call?

bjd5211
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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:50 am

mls wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:58 am I am not one to target a TE in the first round of a rookie draft. But Kyle Pitts is a fantastic prospect at the position. Would anybody target him in the first round. If so, where in the round would you make the call?
Hockenson and Fant were pretty common names in the 1st round of 2019 rookie names, and he's on par with (if not above) them as prospects. So I expect he ends up with a 1st round ADP, somewhere around 1.08 - 1.10 would be my guess.

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby joeya2001 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:50 am

If dynasty has taught me anything, its not to draft TE in the first round of rookie drafts
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1TE, Super Flex, 2 Flex Spots. 10 Team Dynasty PPR

2016 Champs 2019 Runner up 2020 Champs

QB- Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love
RB- Alvin Kamara, AJ Dillion
WR- Christian Kirk, Michael Pittman, Aiyuk, Alec Pierce, DJ Chare, Terrace Marshall, Metchie,
TE- George Kittle, Darren Waller, Greg Dortch.

Team 2 10 Team 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 2 Flex 2 SF

2020 3rd place Year 1
(This is a rebuild team selling vets)
QB Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Geno,
RB AJ Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard,
WR Tee Higgins, Sutton, HollywoodTerry McLaurin, DJM, Ju-Ju, Hodgins,
TE Hock, Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Otton, Ertz
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BellCow
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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby BellCow » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:54 am

End of the first is where I'd make the move. Would provide a Kittle/Kelce/Waller competitive advantage if he hits.

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby failblazer » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:06 am

joeya2001 wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:50 am If dynasty has taught me anything, its not to draft TE in the first round of rookie drafts
Still holding OJ Howard and David Njoku. Still want to believe.

Looking over the top guys though, I tend to agree with this. How many guys taken at the top of the NFL draft and rookie drafts have actually panned out? Hockenson looks like he might buck the trend but he is very much the minority.

I really like what I have seen out of Pitts, he seems to be truly a different kind of talent than what we have seen recently but having invested high in guys like the aforementioned Howard and Njoku make me hesitate. I think the best strategy is simply to roster in bulk where possible and trying and get shares in deeper classes. If I can get lots of shares in Freiermuth, Brevin and even Kolar in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds in what looks like a good tight end class then that might be the play here.

I am intrigued enough that I will try to grab at least one share for a team with multiple 1sts. If he pans out to be a truly elite TE then he can be a difference maker for a long time, because after Kelce and Waller start to age out, there aren't going to be too many difference makers at the position.
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P. Mahomes, Z. Wilson
C. McCaffrey, N. Harris, C. Hubbard
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, D. Johnson, G. Davis, D. Mims, J. Palmer
D. Waller, C. Kmet, B. Jordan

C. Young, R. Quinn
D. Leonard, M. Milano, C. Mosely, B. Okereke, J. Davis
J. Simmons, J. Fuller

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N. Fant, A. Okwugbunam, J. Harris
J. Elliott

D. Lawrence, R. Quinn, T. Hendrickson
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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby CGW » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:27 am

Even if hockenson and Fant turn out to be solid TE1s, both could be had cheaper than their draft position at some point during or after their rookie seasons. I've seen hock added on to a half dozen trades as a sweetener across my leagues, despite looking pretty solid already.

Drafting TEs early is a tough proposition. Taking a WR/RB in the 1st and they hit means an instant value increase. Taking a TE, you are lucky to get your value back 2 years in even when they look serviceable. It's just a tough position to translate into the NFL, and rarely do rookies break out.
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QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Prescott
RB | Jeff Wilson, Pierre-Strong
WR | Adams, Olave, ARSB, Dotson, Addison
TE | Andrews, Otton, Bellinger, Likely, Okonkwo
2024 | 1st 2025 | 1stx3, 2nd, 3rdx2

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Tagovailoa, Stroud
RB | Montgomery, Swift, Dobbins, Singletary, Jamaal Williams, R. White, Davis-Price, Herbert, Miller
WR | Godwin, AJB, Lamb, D. Johnson, M. Brown, Mooney, Kirk, J. Williams, Skyy Moore, Watson
TE | Andrews, Bellinger, Dulcich
2024 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd

12 Team | SF | PPR | 1.5TEP | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Herbert, Love, Young, Lance
RB | ETN, Pacheco, Ford, Warren
WR | ARSB, Wilson, Olave, DK, Flowers, Collins, Downs
TE | Hockenson, Dulcich, Likely, Otton
2024 | 2nd, 3rdx3, 4th

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby yinzername » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:32 am

My first pick looks to be about 2.2 in a 12 teamer

I’ll take him there if he’s available
SF - PPR - 12t - start10
Notable Assets in Rebuild
QB: Mahomes - Levis - Rudolph
RB: K Mitchell - J McLaughlin - C Rodriguez - Z Evans
WR: AJB - M Pittman- R Doubs - E Moore - Shaheed - C Tillman- A Iosivas
TE: MAndrews - Kraft
'24: 1.1, 1.7, 2.1, 2.6, 2.10, 3.1, 4.2, 4.7
‘25: 1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby gpaok » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:41 am

Drafting a TE in the first is a touch call. They typically dont produce for the first 2 maybe 3 years. On top of that, the ride is bumpy with a lot of duds. I have Fant and Hockenson in my team and its a struggle to pick the right TE to start a game every week. BTW depending on the league you might even be able to get them in the end of 2nd, early 3rd round.

Also keep in mind what team Pitts will end up on. That might also make him too expensive or a good sleeper (late rounder).
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QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, SFlex, Flex, DEF

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RB: Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, Khalil Herbert, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Tank Bigsby
WR: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell
TE:T.J. Hockenson, Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Patsfan86 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:02 am

I Have a projected late first, im thinking of taking him there if he is available, or should i just ride it out with my other developmental guys, Irv Smith, Knox, and Harrison Bryant?

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby briank » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:08 am

BellCow wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:54 am End of the first is where I'd make the move. Would provide a Kittle/Kelce/Waller competitive advantage if he hits.
None of those guys went in the first round of rookie drafts. The risk is not worth the potential IMO.
Last edited by briank on Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
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12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby jenkins.math » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:53 am

While I'm usually against taking a TE in the first like many have said, it also depends on the prospect and the draft class he is in. I'm not super fired up about the prospects this year after the top 4 or 5 so I think Pitts will start to get looks in the mid first of rookie drafts this year. Especially if he crushes the combine and goes in the first round of the actual NFL draft.

I won't be shocked if you see Lawrence and Pitts both go much earlier than is typical for their position group this year all things considered.

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby murphysxm » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:30 am

If Pitts lands in an offense that is TE friendly, he is a firrst. The TE position is awful right now and this kid looks like he could walk into top 5 at the position quickly and grow from there
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:46 am

I love Pitts' game.

But, as someone already pointed out, taking a TE in the 1st round of rookie drafts is always risky. We've seen stud TE's before and the hit rate on 1st/2nd round TEs the past several years is really bad.

O.J. Howard, Evan Engram, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, David Njoku...I could go on and on.

2017 was supposed to be one of the greatest TE classes ever and just as everyone predicted: George Kittle (5th round) is the only surefire long-term starter from that class.

Taking a TE in the first just rarely proves to be good value.

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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby nathanq42 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:55 am

I regret taking Hock over AJB at 1.08 back in the day. It might look terrible now, but at the time it wasn't unheard of (plus I was beyond TE needy, my options were Rudolph, Burton, and Doyle...) Hopefully Hock has a long dominant Tony-G level career and all will be forgiven... but that aint gunna happen
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Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Vcize » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:43 pm

gpaok wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:41 am Drafting a TE in the first is a touch call. They typically dont produce for the first 2 maybe 3 years.
I think this is a fallacy.

Maybe true of the career long streamers like Kyle Rudolph but all of the elite HOF caliber TEs had a top 6 TE finish by the end of their 2nd year.

Gronk 90-1327-17 in year 2
Gates 81-964-13
Kelce 67-896-5
Witten 87-980-6
Ertz 58-702-3
Kittle 88-1377-5
etc

It's true that the 1st round has not been kind to TE prospects in a long while, but the idea you have to wait 3-4 years to see what you have isn't really true.
Last edited by Vcize on Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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