Cameron Giles wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:23 am
There's so much that goes into TE beyond catching passes. Hell, even Vernon Davis, who is considered an all-time TE prospect and went 6th overall, was mostly an underachiever. He only had a few good years.
My response is a general response but the Davis portion is a response to the above.
Davis only a few good years.
Finished top 12 all time for TEs in receiving yards, receptions, top 6 in targets & TDs ...
2009 - TE 2 overall season of 252.50 was equivalent to WR12. And that is typical ppr not te premium scoring
2010 - TE 2 overall season of 189.40 was equivalent to WR24.
2011 - TE 8 overall season of 181.50 was equivalent to WR30
2013 - TE 3 overall season of 215.00 was equivalent to WR20
Plus several other low end TE1 and high TE2 seasons.
I think a lot of people forget the hit/miss nature of rookie picks all together because acting like what Vernon Davis did was an underachievement
If you drafted a Vernon Davis he gave you exactly what you were hoping for out of a rookie back in the day, a stud difference maker for a period of time. However I do not know what Davis' rookie draft range was.
Just that he basically was, like a Gronk, or a Graham, a mismatch against most of your opponents in the TE category.
Davis had the unfortunate case of being in the transition period - ie before the Gronks & Kelces become the norm of the TE heights, but after the TE fantasy usage became more prevalent. Plus he had Alex Smith & Kaepernick as his QBs for his prime on teams that had 20-30 range in offensive production - didnt get a Mahomes or a Brady or even a Romo. Or an offensive minded guru like a Shanahan, Peyton or Reid. But in 09/10 he was their leading receiving threat regardless.
TE usage is starting to become more prevalent, so the gap between low end Te1 and mid TE2 is dropping (ie Schultz at TE8 isnt too far from TE 15/16. The difference between a top 3-4 TE and the rest of the pack however is 100-120 points, and that hasnt really changed since the early 2000s. So the floor for TEs is rising but the ceiling is still only attainable for a select few. Of which Pitts has that potential.
So basically Pitts floor is now safer, but his upside is still sky high.
In the end there are 2-3 fallacies that may be creating a false narrative so let me address them
1 - Elite TE production can come from anything at any time. It likely cannot. Waller, like Foster, like others, was an aberration not the norm. The large number of Tes with successful careers have draft pedigree at least Day 2.
Gonzalez
Witten
Ditka
Olsen
Graham
Gronkowsi
Newsome
Kelce
Davis
Winslow
Cook
Miller
Ertz
Andrews
Heap
Shockey
Even Kittle who fell to 5th round was deemed at the Combine to be a top 5 TE and had scout recommended 3/4 round draft pedigree - obviously they were correct and all the teams that decided to do what you are advocating (get TE cheap later) were wrong.
The only non drafted TEs were converted from another position drafted late or UDFA
Gates
Waller
Sharpe
And all 3 took at least a year to several years before they broke out. So no difference - you're still going to have to wait at least a couple of years (but with more uncertainty).
2 - TEs drafted in the 1st are underachiever. This is not true.
There is not enough statistical articles out there on TEs, at least that I have seen. However a review of all the 1st round TEs taken in the past 20 years has shown that about 90% of them had at least a TE1 season in their career*. Compare that to 1st Round WRs and RBs and their draft hit rates.
I think I mentioned this somewhere before. But Pitts worst case career arc based on draft pedigree & metrics & tape is Ebron. That is his WCS. His Mid-range comp is Engram and obviously his ceiling could be Kelce/Kittle/Gronk like top 3.
Compare that to WRs you target in the mid to late 1st in drafts each year ...
So basically they will be startable at some point as a wcs. That cannot be said about the Harrys, Treadwells, Guices, DGBs, and so forth.
3 - You'll be able to get Pitts cheaper later on.
That is assuming he fails or delays from the get-go. As seen with Kelce or Kittle, if Pitts has elite production or flashes enough - but if he doesnt - then it wont matter.
That as always is going to be league dependent. However with more TE premium leagues becoming popular, I think the values will bleed over and it will become increasingly harder for owners to buy low later on elite pedigreed TEs who do not break out Year 1-2.
However it wont really matter since if they do take 3-4 years rather than 1-2 then you know the odds of them breaking into that elite group diminish, so the cheaper price is countered by the lower ceiling.
You'll always have rogue owners, and sharks able to smell blood, but that is the case with any position - but the days of buying low on TE production may be coming to an end as the # of owners who value TE continues to rise.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask?q=most ... d+all-time
* - I'll post a list later on this weekend that verifies my work
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..