The Kyle "Is not the" Pitts Thread

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:32 am

Right - basically it will come down to your perspective and who you're going to expect him to be. I certainly cannot argue that if you (in the general sense) are an owner who compared and expected Vernon Davis to be HOF material, then he'll appear to have underachieved.

However as we both agreed there were mitigating factors, and it was not like his career was either a failure, or he was not fantasy relevant, he simply was not out of the world game changer. So that will be up to each owner to determine. If you look at Pitts and think he is going to have a Vernon Davis career and that is not a path that excites you - fair enough. It all comes down to who he is compared to and how.

Personally I think if in a typical ppr league if he is a mid 1st draft price - then a Vernon Davis / Evan Engram outcome is a very respectable and fair outcome for that price. That compares to a mid WR2 to WR3 level production and having that in your TE slot is very useful (imo).

If he goes top 3 in a typical ppr - then yeah a Kelce like career is what you are going to need - because now we're talking high WR2 to mid WR1 production as a baseline.

In the end Pitt will definitely have a lot of expectations & hype for owners to have to work on maintaining. I'll be updating my 1st Round TE pedigree list on the other thread so as to not derail this from being a Pitts specific thread.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

jenkins.math
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:56 am

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby jenkins.math » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am

ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:32 am Right - basically it will come down to your perspective and who you're going to expect him to be. I certainly cannot argue that if you (in the general sense) are an owner who compared and expected Vernon Davis to be HOF material, then he'll appear to have underachieved.

However as we both agreed there were mitigating factors, and it was not like his career was either a failure, or he was not fantasy relevant, he simply was not out of the world game changer. So that will be up to each owner to determine. If you look at Pitts and think he is going to have a Vernon Davis career and that is not a path that excites you - fair enough. It all comes down to who he is compared to and how.

Personally I think if in a typical ppr league if he is a mid 1st draft price - then a Vernon Davis / Evan Engram outcome is a very respectable and fair outcome for that price. That compares to a mid WR2 to WR3 level production and having that in your TE slot is very useful (imo).

If he goes top 3 in a typical ppr - then yeah a Kelce like career is what you are going to need - because now we're talking high WR2 to mid WR1 production as a baseline.

In the end Pitt will definitely have a lot of expectations & hype for owners to have to work on maintaining. I'll be updating my 1st Round TE pedigree list on the other thread so as to not derail this from being a Pitts specific thread.
Not all first rounders are created equal. The 1.05 in 2020 was valued much higher than the 1.05 in 2021, so I dont think you can just use that as an example for expectations on any player. Some drafts are better than others, but you still have a rookie draft with the same amount of picks. Pitts being mentioned in the top 3 or top 5 also has a lot to do with a relatively weak class at the top. Just look at the ETN and Harris. They didn't like their draft grade relative to the 2020 class so they came back to school.

Drafting Pitts at the 1.03 or 1.05 doesn't change expectations for him as a fantasy football asset.

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:48 am

jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am
ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:32 am Right - basically it will come down to your perspective and who you're going to expect him to be. I certainly cannot argue that if you (in the general sense) are an owner who compared and expected Vernon Davis to be HOF material, then he'll appear to have underachieved.

However as we both agreed there were mitigating factors, and it was not like his career was either a failure, or he was not fantasy relevant, he simply was not out of the world game changer. So that will be up to each owner to determine. If you look at Pitts and think he is going to have a Vernon Davis career and that is not a path that excites you - fair enough. It all comes down to who he is compared to and how.

Personally I think if in a typical ppr league if he is a mid 1st draft price - then a Vernon Davis / Evan Engram outcome is a very respectable and fair outcome for that price. That compares to a mid WR2 to WR3 level production and having that in your TE slot is very useful (imo).

If he goes top 3 in a typical ppr - then yeah a Kelce like career is what you are going to need - because now we're talking high WR2 to mid WR1 production as a baseline.

In the end Pitt will definitely have a lot of expectations & hype for owners to have to work on maintaining. I'll be updating my 1st Round TE pedigree list on the other thread so as to not derail this from being a Pitts specific thread.
Not all first rounders are created equal. The 1.05 in 2020 was valued much higher than the 1.05 in 2021, so I dont think you can just use that as an example for expectations on any player. Some drafts are better than others, but you still have a rookie draft with the same amount of picks. Pitts being mentioned in the top 3 or top 5 also has a lot to do with a relatively weak class at the top. Just look at the ETN and Harris. They didn't like their draft grade relative to the 2020 class so they came back to school.

Drafting Pitts at the 1.03 or 1.05 doesn't change expectations for him as a fantasy football asset.
Actually that is incorrect based on mock ADP
I cannot speak for league by league trade market valuations.

April 2021 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Harris, Najee (FA, RB) (R1) 25.67 25.67 25.25 6 Feb: 28.67, Mar: 27.50, Apr: 25.67
2 1 1.2 Chase, Ja'Marr (FA, WR) (R2) 30.67 30.67 29.50 6 Feb: 39.17, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 30.67
3 2 1.3 Etienne, Travis (FA, RB) (R3) 30.83 30.83 31.75 6 Feb: 35.33, Mar: 36.00, Apr: 30.83
4 3 1.4 Williams, Javonte (FA, RB) (R4) 38.33 38.33 37.75 6 Feb: 60.67, Mar: 50.33, Apr: 38.33
5 1 1.5 Pitts, Kyle (FA, TE) (R5) 43.67 43.67 43.25 6 Feb: 65.00, Mar: 57.17, Apr: 43.67

April 2020 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Taylor, Jonathan (IND, RB, Age: 21)® (R1) 18.00 18.00 18.00 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 23 (6) Feb: 31.83, Mar: 18.17, Apr: 18.00,
2 2 1.2 Swift, D'Andre (DET, RB, Age: 21)® (R2) 29.17 29.17 29.75 23, 29, 29, 29, 32, 33 (6) Feb: 25.00, Mar: 23.17, Apr: 29.17,
3 3 1.3 Dobbins, J.K. (BAL, RB, Age: 21)® (R3) 38.33 38.33 38.25 33, 35, 38, 38, 42, 44 (6) Feb: 37.83, Mar: 32.17, Apr: 38.33
4 1 1.4 Lamb, CeeDee (DAL, WR, Age: 21)® (R4) 38.33 38.33 36.00 34, 34, 35, 35, 40, 52 (6) Feb: 41.33, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 38.33
5 2 1.5 Jeudy, Jerry (DEN, WR, Age: 21)® (R5) 46.00 46.00 45.75 39, 39, 39, 52, 53, 54 (6) Feb: 41.17, Mar: 40.33, Apr: 46.00,

As we can see the 1.05 currently holds a similar ADP at the same time in both years

And here is 2017 - again courtesy of Mizelle - the last time a TE was talked about being a consistent 1st round target in 12 team ppr

1 1 1.1 Fournette, Leonard (JAC, RB)® (R1) 24.17 24.25 22 26 22, 23, 24, 25, 25, 26 (6) Feb: 25.33, Mar: 21.50, Apr: 24.17,
2 1 1.2 Davis, Corey (TEN, WR)® (R2) 27.83 28.00 20 35 20, 23, 27, 28, 34, 35 (6) Feb: 30.00, Mar: 30.50, Apr: 27.83,
3 2 1.3 Cook, Dalvin (MIN, RB)® (R3) 31.67 31.25 25 40 25, 27, 32, 32, 34, 40 (6) Feb: 20.67, Mar: 28.33, Apr: 31.67,
4 3 1.4 McCaffrey, Christian (CAR, RB)® (R4) 36.33 36.50 30 42 30, 33, 35, 38, 40, 42 (6) Feb: 64.33, Mar: 45.50, Apr: 36.33,
5 2 1.5 Williams, Mike (LAC, WR)® (R5) 43.33 43.00 34 54 34, 37, 44, 44, 47, 54 (6) Feb: 36.33, Mar: 38.00, Apr: 43.33,

TBH the only draft in recent years, and unfairly imo, that got really downgraded in valuation was 2019 where the top players were being equated to the 1.05 in other years. I personally do my best to treat each rookie draft with the same valuations. And with 5-6 players from that class now in the top 3-4 rounds its perhaps a good indication of how the 2019 is holding its gound (Brown, Metcalf, Sanders, Jacobs, McLaurin & Montgomery).

Again I can only speak for myself, and what consensus data provides - but no I do not get a sense that 2021 is that far off 2020.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

jenkins.math
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1589
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:56 am

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby jenkins.math » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:58 am

ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:48 am
jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am
ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:32 am Right - basically it will come down to your perspective and who you're going to expect him to be. I certainly cannot argue that if you (in the general sense) are an owner who compared and expected Vernon Davis to be HOF material, then he'll appear to have underachieved.

However as we both agreed there were mitigating factors, and it was not like his career was either a failure, or he was not fantasy relevant, he simply was not out of the world game changer. So that will be up to each owner to determine. If you look at Pitts and think he is going to have a Vernon Davis career and that is not a path that excites you - fair enough. It all comes down to who he is compared to and how.

Personally I think if in a typical ppr league if he is a mid 1st draft price - then a Vernon Davis / Evan Engram outcome is a very respectable and fair outcome for that price. That compares to a mid WR2 to WR3 level production and having that in your TE slot is very useful (imo).

If he goes top 3 in a typical ppr - then yeah a Kelce like career is what you are going to need - because now we're talking high WR2 to mid WR1 production as a baseline.

In the end Pitt will definitely have a lot of expectations & hype for owners to have to work on maintaining. I'll be updating my 1st Round TE pedigree list on the other thread so as to not derail this from being a Pitts specific thread.
Not all first rounders are created equal. The 1.05 in 2020 was valued much higher than the 1.05 in 2021, so I dont think you can just use that as an example for expectations on any player. Some drafts are better than others, but you still have a rookie draft with the same amount of picks. Pitts being mentioned in the top 3 or top 5 also has a lot to do with a relatively weak class at the top. Just look at the ETN and Harris. They didn't like their draft grade relative to the 2020 class so they came back to school.

Drafting Pitts at the 1.03 or 1.05 doesn't change expectations for him as a fantasy football asset.
Actually that is incorrect based on mock ADP
I cannot speak for league by league trade market valuations.

April 2021 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Harris, Najee (FA, RB) (R1) 25.67 25.67 25.25 6 Feb: 28.67, Mar: 27.50, Apr: 25.67
2 1 1.2 Chase, Ja'Marr (FA, WR) (R2) 30.67 30.67 29.50 6 Feb: 39.17, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 30.67
3 2 1.3 Etienne, Travis (FA, RB) (R3) 30.83 30.83 31.75 6 Feb: 35.33, Mar: 36.00, Apr: 30.83
4 3 1.4 Williams, Javonte (FA, RB) (R4) 38.33 38.33 37.75 6 Feb: 60.67, Mar: 50.33, Apr: 38.33
5 1 1.5 Pitts, Kyle (FA, TE) (R5) 43.67 43.67 43.25 6 Feb: 65.00, Mar: 57.17, Apr: 43.67

April 2020 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Taylor, Jonathan (IND, RB, Age: 21)® (R1) 18.00 18.00 18.00 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 23 (6) Feb: 31.83, Mar: 18.17, Apr: 18.00,
2 2 1.2 Swift, D'Andre (DET, RB, Age: 21)® (R2) 29.17 29.17 29.75 23, 29, 29, 29, 32, 33 (6) Feb: 25.00, Mar: 23.17, Apr: 29.17,
3 3 1.3 Dobbins, J.K. (BAL, RB, Age: 21)® (R3) 38.33 38.33 38.25 33, 35, 38, 38, 42, 44 (6) Feb: 37.83, Mar: 32.17, Apr: 38.33
4 1 1.4 Lamb, CeeDee (DAL, WR, Age: 21)® (R4) 38.33 38.33 36.00 34, 34, 35, 35, 40, 52 (6) Feb: 41.33, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 38.33
5 2 1.5 Jeudy, Jerry (DEN, WR, Age: 21)® (R5) 46.00 46.00 45.75 39, 39, 39, 52, 53, 54 (6) Feb: 41.17, Mar: 40.33, Apr: 46.00,

As we can see the 1.05 currently holds a similar ADP at the same time in both years

And here is 2017 - again courtesy of Mizelle - the last time a TE was talked about being a consistent 1st round target in 12 team ppr

1 1 1.1 Fournette, Leonard (JAC, RB)® (R1) 24.17 24.25 22 26 22, 23, 24, 25, 25, 26 (6) Feb: 25.33, Mar: 21.50, Apr: 24.17,
2 1 1.2 Davis, Corey (TEN, WR)® (R2) 27.83 28.00 20 35 20, 23, 27, 28, 34, 35 (6) Feb: 30.00, Mar: 30.50, Apr: 27.83,
3 2 1.3 Cook, Dalvin (MIN, RB)® (R3) 31.67 31.25 25 40 25, 27, 32, 32, 34, 40 (6) Feb: 20.67, Mar: 28.33, Apr: 31.67,
4 3 1.4 McCaffrey, Christian (CAR, RB)® (R4) 36.33 36.50 30 42 30, 33, 35, 38, 40, 42 (6) Feb: 64.33, Mar: 45.50, Apr: 36.33,
5 2 1.5 Williams, Mike (LAC, WR)® (R5) 43.33 43.00 34 54 34, 37, 44, 44, 47, 54 (6) Feb: 36.33, Mar: 38.00, Apr: 43.33,

TBH the only draft in recent years, and unfairly imo, that got really downgraded in valuation was 2019 where the top players were being equated to the 1.05 in other years. I personally do my best to treat each rookie draft with the same valuations. And with 5-6 players from that class now in the top 3-4 rounds its perhaps a good indication of how the 2019 is holding its gound (Brown, Metcalf, Sanders, Jacobs, McLaurin & Montgomery).

Again I can only speak for myself, and what consensus data provides - but no I do not get a sense that 2021 is that far off 2020.
2020 was insanely hyped with people hoarding picks 2 years in advance. It became virtually impossible to trade for them without paying a premium. Its not like that this year. Im really not sure what to tell you if you disagree with that.

Also using startup ADP to value rookie picks is great for podcasts and articles, but provides very little value. It permeates on the idea I can trade my pick for that veteran around the same level. Its not that simple.

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:25 am

jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:58 am
ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:48 am
jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am

Not all first rounders are created equal. The 1.05 in 2020 was valued much higher than the 1.05 in 2021, so I dont think you can just use that as an example for expectations on any player. Some drafts are better than others, but you still have a rookie draft with the same amount of picks. Pitts being mentioned in the top 3 or top 5 also has a lot to do with a relatively weak class at the top. Just look at the ETN and Harris. They didn't like their draft grade relative to the 2020 class so they came back to school.

Drafting Pitts at the 1.03 or 1.05 doesn't change expectations for him as a fantasy football asset.
Actually that is incorrect based on mock ADP
I cannot speak for league by league trade market valuations.

April 2021 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Harris, Najee (FA, RB) (R1) 25.67 25.67 25.25 6 Feb: 28.67, Mar: 27.50, Apr: 25.67
2 1 1.2 Chase, Ja'Marr (FA, WR) (R2) 30.67 30.67 29.50 6 Feb: 39.17, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 30.67
3 2 1.3 Etienne, Travis (FA, RB) (R3) 30.83 30.83 31.75 6 Feb: 35.33, Mar: 36.00, Apr: 30.83
4 3 1.4 Williams, Javonte (FA, RB) (R4) 38.33 38.33 37.75 6 Feb: 60.67, Mar: 50.33, Apr: 38.33
5 1 1.5 Pitts, Kyle (FA, TE) (R5) 43.67 43.67 43.25 6 Feb: 65.00, Mar: 57.17, Apr: 43.67

April 2020 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Taylor, Jonathan (IND, RB, Age: 21)® (R1) 18.00 18.00 18.00 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 23 (6) Feb: 31.83, Mar: 18.17, Apr: 18.00,
2 2 1.2 Swift, D'Andre (DET, RB, Age: 21)® (R2) 29.17 29.17 29.75 23, 29, 29, 29, 32, 33 (6) Feb: 25.00, Mar: 23.17, Apr: 29.17,
3 3 1.3 Dobbins, J.K. (BAL, RB, Age: 21)® (R3) 38.33 38.33 38.25 33, 35, 38, 38, 42, 44 (6) Feb: 37.83, Mar: 32.17, Apr: 38.33
4 1 1.4 Lamb, CeeDee (DAL, WR, Age: 21)® (R4) 38.33 38.33 36.00 34, 34, 35, 35, 40, 52 (6) Feb: 41.33, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 38.33
5 2 1.5 Jeudy, Jerry (DEN, WR, Age: 21)® (R5) 46.00 46.00 45.75 39, 39, 39, 52, 53, 54 (6) Feb: 41.17, Mar: 40.33, Apr: 46.00,

As we can see the 1.05 currently holds a similar ADP at the same time in both years

And here is 2017 - again courtesy of Mizelle - the last time a TE was talked about being a consistent 1st round target in 12 team ppr

1 1 1.1 Fournette, Leonard (JAC, RB)® (R1) 24.17 24.25 22 26 22, 23, 24, 25, 25, 26 (6) Feb: 25.33, Mar: 21.50, Apr: 24.17,
2 1 1.2 Davis, Corey (TEN, WR)® (R2) 27.83 28.00 20 35 20, 23, 27, 28, 34, 35 (6) Feb: 30.00, Mar: 30.50, Apr: 27.83,
3 2 1.3 Cook, Dalvin (MIN, RB)® (R3) 31.67 31.25 25 40 25, 27, 32, 32, 34, 40 (6) Feb: 20.67, Mar: 28.33, Apr: 31.67,
4 3 1.4 McCaffrey, Christian (CAR, RB)® (R4) 36.33 36.50 30 42 30, 33, 35, 38, 40, 42 (6) Feb: 64.33, Mar: 45.50, Apr: 36.33,
5 2 1.5 Williams, Mike (LAC, WR)® (R5) 43.33 43.00 34 54 34, 37, 44, 44, 47, 54 (6) Feb: 36.33, Mar: 38.00, Apr: 43.33,

TBH the only draft in recent years, and unfairly imo, that got really downgraded in valuation was 2019 where the top players were being equated to the 1.05 in other years. I personally do my best to treat each rookie draft with the same valuations. And with 5-6 players from that class now in the top 3-4 rounds its perhaps a good indication of how the 2019 is holding its gound (Brown, Metcalf, Sanders, Jacobs, McLaurin & Montgomery).

Again I can only speak for myself, and what consensus data provides - but no I do not get a sense that 2021 is that far off 2020.
2020 was insanely hyped with people hoarding picks 2 years in advance. It became virtually impossible to trade for them without paying a premium. Its not like that this year. Im really not sure what to tell you if you disagree with that.

Also using startup ADP to value rookie picks is great for podcasts and articles, but provides very little value. It permeates on the idea I can trade my pick for that veteran around the same level. Its not that simple.
You're certainly free to hold that opinion - but I can only show what the ADP data shows. Nor do I have any recollection of it being that difficult to acquire 2020 picks in my leagues. Maybe at some point I will do a deeper dive & check but I can say that I am in double digit leagues and had 2020 picks in most of them & saw trades involving 2020 picks in most leagues. Like I said I cannot speak for everyone or league to league markets - I can only go by my experiences, and what ADP data showcases. If you disagree, you disagree.

I am well aware people talked about how difficult it was to get 2020 picks, but it was usually conjecture or anecdotal from what I saw *shrugs*.

One 12 team 24 man league I am in run by Coinflip for example I can now see 5 2020 picks were traded in some fashion from Sept 2019 to May 2020.

Ottawa Centurions / Every Given Sunday (C) Trade
Ottawa Centurions gave up Mariota, Marcus TEN QB; Gurley, Todd LAR RB; Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR; Graham, Jimmy GBP TE; Year 2020 Round 3 Draft Pick from Ottawa Centurions
Every Given Sunday gave up Garoppolo, Jimmy SFO QB; Richard, Jalen OAK RB; Robinson, Allen CHI WR; Howard, O.J. TBB TE; Year 2020 Round 1 Draft Pick from Every Given Sunday
Wed Oct 9 1:07:37 p.m. ET

I get a 1st & Allen Robinson for Gurley & others.

1 Houdini / Ottawa Centurions (C) Trade
Houdini gave up Watkins, Sammy KCC WR; Year 2020 Round 1 Draft Pick from Houdini
Ottawa Centurions gave up Robinson, Allen CHI WR
Sun Nov 3 8:51:14 a.m. ET 2019

I get another 1st for Robinson

2 River-Rats / Prime Ryb (C) Trade
River-Rats gave up Year 2020 Round 1 Draft Pick from River-Rats
Prime Ryb gave up Conner, James PIT RB
Fri Nov 1 5:02:25 p.m. ET 2019

Owner gets a first for Conner

Every Given Sunday / Tyler (C) Trade
Every Given Sunday gave up Mack, Marlon IND RB
Tyler gave up Edelman, Julian NEP WR; Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.09; Year 2020 2.05
Sun Apr 19 4:18:47 p.m. ET 2020

Every Given Sunday / Coinflip (C) Trade
Every Given Sunday gave up Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.09; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.05
Coinflip gave up Drake, Kenyan ARI RB; Year 2020 Draft Pick 3.01
Sun May 3 1:10:34 p.m. ET 2020

Owner sells Mack for a 1st, then trades that 1st for Drake.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

OhCruelestRanter
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2732
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 5:33 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:27 am

ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:48 am
jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am
ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:32 am Right - basically it will come down to your perspective and who you're going to expect him to be. I certainly cannot argue that if you (in the general sense) are an owner who compared and expected Vernon Davis to be HOF material, then he'll appear to have underachieved.

However as we both agreed there were mitigating factors, and it was not like his career was either a failure, or he was not fantasy relevant, he simply was not out of the world game changer. So that will be up to each owner to determine. If you look at Pitts and think he is going to have a Vernon Davis career and that is not a path that excites you - fair enough. It all comes down to who he is compared to and how.

Personally I think if in a typical ppr league if he is a mid 1st draft price - then a Vernon Davis / Evan Engram outcome is a very respectable and fair outcome for that price. That compares to a mid WR2 to WR3 level production and having that in your TE slot is very useful (imo).

If he goes top 3 in a typical ppr - then yeah a Kelce like career is what you are going to need - because now we're talking high WR2 to mid WR1 production as a baseline.

In the end Pitt will definitely have a lot of expectations & hype for owners to have to work on maintaining. I'll be updating my 1st Round TE pedigree list on the other thread so as to not derail this from being a Pitts specific thread.
Not all first rounders are created equal. The 1.05 in 2020 was valued much higher than the 1.05 in 2021, so I dont think you can just use that as an example for expectations on any player. Some drafts are better than others, but you still have a rookie draft with the same amount of picks. Pitts being mentioned in the top 3 or top 5 also has a lot to do with a relatively weak class at the top. Just look at the ETN and Harris. They didn't like their draft grade relative to the 2020 class so they came back to school.

Drafting Pitts at the 1.03 or 1.05 doesn't change expectations for him as a fantasy football asset.
Actually that is incorrect based on mock ADP
I cannot speak for league by league trade market valuations.

April 2021 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Harris, Najee (FA, RB) (R1) 25.67 25.67 25.25 6 Feb: 28.67, Mar: 27.50, Apr: 25.67
2 1 1.2 Chase, Ja'Marr (FA, WR) (R2) 30.67 30.67 29.50 6 Feb: 39.17, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 30.67
3 2 1.3 Etienne, Travis (FA, RB) (R3) 30.83 30.83 31.75 6 Feb: 35.33, Mar: 36.00, Apr: 30.83
4 3 1.4 Williams, Javonte (FA, RB) (R4) 38.33 38.33 37.75 6 Feb: 60.67, Mar: 50.33, Apr: 38.33
5 1 1.5 Pitts, Kyle (FA, TE) (R5) 43.67 43.67 43.25 6 Feb: 65.00, Mar: 57.17, Apr: 43.67

April 2020 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Taylor, Jonathan (IND, RB, Age: 21)® (R1) 18.00 18.00 18.00 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 23 (6) Feb: 31.83, Mar: 18.17, Apr: 18.00,
2 2 1.2 Swift, D'Andre (DET, RB, Age: 21)® (R2) 29.17 29.17 29.75 23, 29, 29, 29, 32, 33 (6) Feb: 25.00, Mar: 23.17, Apr: 29.17,
3 3 1.3 Dobbins, J.K. (BAL, RB, Age: 21)® (R3) 38.33 38.33 38.25 33, 35, 38, 38, 42, 44 (6) Feb: 37.83, Mar: 32.17, Apr: 38.33
4 1 1.4 Lamb, CeeDee (DAL, WR, Age: 21)® (R4) 38.33 38.33 36.00 34, 34, 35, 35, 40, 52 (6) Feb: 41.33, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 38.33
5 2 1.5 Jeudy, Jerry (DEN, WR, Age: 21)® (R5) 46.00 46.00 45.75 39, 39, 39, 52, 53, 54 (6) Feb: 41.17, Mar: 40.33, Apr: 46.00,

As we can see the 1.05 currently holds a similar ADP at the same time in both years

And here is 2017 - again courtesy of Mizelle - the last time a TE was talked about being a consistent 1st round target in 12 team ppr

1 1 1.1 Fournette, Leonard (JAC, RB)® (R1) 24.17 24.25 22 26 22, 23, 24, 25, 25, 26 (6) Feb: 25.33, Mar: 21.50, Apr: 24.17,
2 1 1.2 Davis, Corey (TEN, WR)® (R2) 27.83 28.00 20 35 20, 23, 27, 28, 34, 35 (6) Feb: 30.00, Mar: 30.50, Apr: 27.83,
3 2 1.3 Cook, Dalvin (MIN, RB)® (R3) 31.67 31.25 25 40 25, 27, 32, 32, 34, 40 (6) Feb: 20.67, Mar: 28.33, Apr: 31.67,
4 3 1.4 McCaffrey, Christian (CAR, RB)® (R4) 36.33 36.50 30 42 30, 33, 35, 38, 40, 42 (6) Feb: 64.33, Mar: 45.50, Apr: 36.33,
5 2 1.5 Williams, Mike (LAC, WR)® (R5) 43.33 43.00 34 54 34, 37, 44, 44, 47, 54 (6) Feb: 36.33, Mar: 38.00, Apr: 43.33,

TBH the only draft in recent years, and unfairly imo, that got really downgraded in valuation was 2019 where the top players were being equated to the 1.05 in other years. I personally do my best to treat each rookie draft with the same valuations. And with 5-6 players from that class now in the top 3-4 rounds its perhaps a good indication of how the 2019 is holding its gound (Brown, Metcalf, Sanders, Jacobs, McLaurin & Montgomery).

Again I can only speak for myself, and what consensus data provides - but no I do not get a sense that 2021 is that far off 2020.
The 2020 class saw a massive value bump after the draft.

Here’s the May Data:

Helaire 13.5
Taylor 14.67
Dobbins 20.67
Swift 25.83
Akers 29.67
Lamb 35.83
Jeudy 42.17

That would put Jeudy, 2020’s 1.07, ahead of 2021’s 1.05, and put Akers, the post-draft 1.05, ahead of Pitts.

Now most classes see a post-draft bump, but I tend to doubt that we’ll see the 1.05 and 1.06 this year have ADPs of 29.67 and 35.83 or better. Should be fun to revisit post-draft.
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby ArrylT » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:55 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:27 am
ArrylT wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:48 am
jenkins.math wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:31 am

Not all first rounders are created equal. The 1.05 in 2020 was valued much higher than the 1.05 in 2021, so I dont think you can just use that as an example for expectations on any player. Some drafts are better than others, but you still have a rookie draft with the same amount of picks. Pitts being mentioned in the top 3 or top 5 also has a lot to do with a relatively weak class at the top. Just look at the ETN and Harris. They didn't like their draft grade relative to the 2020 class so they came back to school.

Drafting Pitts at the 1.03 or 1.05 doesn't change expectations for him as a fantasy football asset.
Actually that is incorrect based on mock ADP
I cannot speak for league by league trade market valuations.

April 2021 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Harris, Najee (FA, RB) (R1) 25.67 25.67 25.25 6 Feb: 28.67, Mar: 27.50, Apr: 25.67
2 1 1.2 Chase, Ja'Marr (FA, WR) (R2) 30.67 30.67 29.50 6 Feb: 39.17, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 30.67
3 2 1.3 Etienne, Travis (FA, RB) (R3) 30.83 30.83 31.75 6 Feb: 35.33, Mar: 36.00, Apr: 30.83
4 3 1.4 Williams, Javonte (FA, RB) (R4) 38.33 38.33 37.75 6 Feb: 60.67, Mar: 50.33, Apr: 38.33
5 1 1.5 Pitts, Kyle (FA, TE) (R5) 43.67 43.67 43.25 6 Feb: 65.00, Mar: 57.17, Apr: 43.67

April 2020 Rookie ADP courtesy of Mizelle:

1 1 1.1 Taylor, Jonathan (IND, RB, Age: 21)® (R1) 18.00 18.00 18.00 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 23 (6) Feb: 31.83, Mar: 18.17, Apr: 18.00,
2 2 1.2 Swift, D'Andre (DET, RB, Age: 21)® (R2) 29.17 29.17 29.75 23, 29, 29, 29, 32, 33 (6) Feb: 25.00, Mar: 23.17, Apr: 29.17,
3 3 1.3 Dobbins, J.K. (BAL, RB, Age: 21)® (R3) 38.33 38.33 38.25 33, 35, 38, 38, 42, 44 (6) Feb: 37.83, Mar: 32.17, Apr: 38.33
4 1 1.4 Lamb, CeeDee (DAL, WR, Age: 21)® (R4) 38.33 38.33 36.00 34, 34, 35, 35, 40, 52 (6) Feb: 41.33, Mar: 36.50, Apr: 38.33
5 2 1.5 Jeudy, Jerry (DEN, WR, Age: 21)® (R5) 46.00 46.00 45.75 39, 39, 39, 52, 53, 54 (6) Feb: 41.17, Mar: 40.33, Apr: 46.00,

As we can see the 1.05 currently holds a similar ADP at the same time in both years

And here is 2017 - again courtesy of Mizelle - the last time a TE was talked about being a consistent 1st round target in 12 team ppr

1 1 1.1 Fournette, Leonard (JAC, RB)® (R1) 24.17 24.25 22 26 22, 23, 24, 25, 25, 26 (6) Feb: 25.33, Mar: 21.50, Apr: 24.17,
2 1 1.2 Davis, Corey (TEN, WR)® (R2) 27.83 28.00 20 35 20, 23, 27, 28, 34, 35 (6) Feb: 30.00, Mar: 30.50, Apr: 27.83,
3 2 1.3 Cook, Dalvin (MIN, RB)® (R3) 31.67 31.25 25 40 25, 27, 32, 32, 34, 40 (6) Feb: 20.67, Mar: 28.33, Apr: 31.67,
4 3 1.4 McCaffrey, Christian (CAR, RB)® (R4) 36.33 36.50 30 42 30, 33, 35, 38, 40, 42 (6) Feb: 64.33, Mar: 45.50, Apr: 36.33,
5 2 1.5 Williams, Mike (LAC, WR)® (R5) 43.33 43.00 34 54 34, 37, 44, 44, 47, 54 (6) Feb: 36.33, Mar: 38.00, Apr: 43.33,

TBH the only draft in recent years, and unfairly imo, that got really downgraded in valuation was 2019 where the top players were being equated to the 1.05 in other years. I personally do my best to treat each rookie draft with the same valuations. And with 5-6 players from that class now in the top 3-4 rounds its perhaps a good indication of how the 2019 is holding its gound (Brown, Metcalf, Sanders, Jacobs, McLaurin & Montgomery).

Again I can only speak for myself, and what consensus data provides - but no I do not get a sense that 2021 is that far off 2020.
The 2020 class saw a massive value bump after the draft.

Here’s the May Data:

Helaire 13.5
Taylor 14.67
Dobbins 20.67
Swift 25.83
Akers 29.67
Lamb 35.83
Jeudy 42.17

That would put Jeudy, 2020’s 1.07, ahead of 2021’s 1.05, and put Akers, the post-draft 1.05, ahead of Pitts.

Now most classes see a post-draft bump, but I tend to doubt that we’ll see the 1.05 and 1.06 this year have ADPs of 29.67 and 35.83 or better. Should be fun to revisit post-draft.
Agreed and no argument there. Whether or not 2021 draft bump will be closer to 2020, 2019 or what will happen we shall have to see. Do I expect the bump to match 2020? That is hard to forecast, considering the makeup of the classes are different. But obviously 2020 did benefit from a CEH perceived to be golden landing spot by landing in KC. There are some of those in this years draft as well and early 2nd landing spots are good ones (for RB/WR) to consider but whether they occur, or the landing spots end up being murkier - we'll only be able to tell in a few weeks.

Thanks for sharing. :)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

OhCruelestRanter
MVP
MVP
Posts: 2732
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 5:33 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby OhCruelestRanter » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:49 pm

Yeah, I mean the comparison is "asymmetric" right now. There are two major differences in the way I see these classes and their post-draft bumps.

1. CEH- I think it's basically impossible that we see somebody get a CEH bump- somebody outside the top 6 jumping to 1st or second and pushing everybody else down, raising the value of the 1.05. I don't think any of these WRs outside the top 5 picks are seeing a massive value jump after the draft- Smith, Waddle, Bateman, and Moore all seem like they're priced as though they're getting drafted in the first. Even going to a presumably great spot- say GB in the first- is unlikely to vault them into 1st. I think you'd have to see something like Arizona take Kenny Gainwell in the first round, which would be even crazier than KC taking CEH, for this to happen.

2. Akers vs. Williams- Akers is a better prospect than Williams, but I recall mock drafters regarding them sort of similarly. Akers wasn't a sure thing to be a round 2 pick, and when he was, it cemented his value, and he jumped to 1.05 and 29.67. Meanwhile, Williams is already priced like he's going in Round 2. If he falls into Round 3 or early Day 3, his value is going to tumble. It's there in the 2017 data too- Joe Mixon is suspicious absent because drafters in early April had no idea when he would be taken in the NFL draft. By may, Mixon was 1.04 at 31.83 and Cook had fallen to the 1.05 at 33.8, again about a round earlier than where we are now.

In any case, I do all of my rookie drafts after the NFL draft. My experience is that is far and away more common in dynasty leagues. I suspect after the draft, those saying that the 1.05 this year is not as valuable as the 1.05 in previous years will be correct.
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF

User avatar
Vcize
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3666
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 4:30 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Vcize » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:03 pm

Jumping in here. If people have been here the last few years I don't see how they possibly couldn't have noticed the 2020 draft hype in the years leading up to it. People were buying those picks years in advance and 1 year away they were borderline twice as valuable as a typical future pick 1 year out was.

Obviously everyone's actual leagues are different from each other but all of mine absolutely followed this. Everyone wanting to buy 2020 picks, no one wanting to sell without getting extreme value back.

It was not a normal class in terms of the hype leading up to it.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Herbert, Brady
RB: Barkley, Mixon, Jav Williams, Pierce, Drake
WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
TE: Kittle, Goedert

Online
Jigga94
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 16060
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:38 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Jigga94 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:35 am

Vcize wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:03 pm Jumping in here. If people have been here the last few years I don't see how they possibly couldn't have noticed the 2020 draft hype in the years leading up to it. People were buying those picks years in advance and 1 year away they were borderline twice as valuable as a typical future pick 1 year out was.

Obviously everyone's actual leagues are different from each other but all of mine absolutely followed this. Everyone wanting to buy 2020 picks, no one wanting to sell without getting extreme value back.

It was not a normal class in terms of the hype leading up to it.
I do remember instances of people trading their mid 2019 1sts for any 2020 1st. Normally, you'd want to get a better pick if it's further out, but they were not discounted much, if at all

Pullo Vision
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 7557
Joined: Sat May 28, 2011 11:53 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Pullo Vision » Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:52 am

OhCruelestRanter wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:49 pm I think it's basically impossible that we see somebody get a CEH bump- somebody outside the top 6 jumping to 1st or second and pushing everybody else down, raising the value of the 1.05. I don't think any of these WRs outside the top 5 picks are seeing a massive value jump after the draft- Smith, Waddle, Bateman, and Moore all seem like they're priced as though they're getting drafted in the first. Even going to a presumably great spot- say GB in the first- is unlikely to vault them into 1st. I think you'd have to see something like Arizona take Kenny Gainwell in the first round, which would be even crazier than KC taking CEH, for this to happen.
Hypothetically, a team taking a QB early first could take a WR early 2nd. Depending on where others land, could a WR push themselves into the top 5?

Chase- Miami
Harris- Pittsburgh
D Smith- Philly

T Marshall- Cincinnati
Etienne- NYJ
Waddle- Arizona
Pitts- Dallas (if reports of Jones' infatuation are true)
Javonte Williams- Atlanta
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def

User avatar
Pac_Eddy
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5044
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:22 am

I'll throw this fuel onto the fire.
Attachments
Pitts.JPG
Pitts.JPG (23.02 KiB) Viewed 389 times
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

User avatar
ArrylT
Degenerate
Degenerate
Posts: 9526
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:32 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby ArrylT » Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:13 am

Pac_Eddy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:22 am I'll throw this fuel onto the fire.
So basically you're trying to turn it from a 1 building complex fire into one that engulfs the whole neighbourhood? :lol: :thumbup:
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

User avatar
Pac_Eddy
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5044
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 7:12 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby Pac_Eddy » Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:21 am

ArrylT wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:13 am
Pac_Eddy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:22 am I'll throw this fuel onto the fire.
So basically you're trying to turn it from a 1 building complex fire into one that engulfs the whole neighbourhood? :lol: :thumbup:
Let's burn it all down!
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

honcho55
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1567
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:45 pm

Re: Kyle Pitts

Postby honcho55 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:20 am

Pac_Eddy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:22 am I'll throw this fuel onto the fire.
I was gonna mention this in the “things I learned” thread. I have had to break my habit of overreacting to this kind of thing. I already knew pitts was a stud, this kind of stat needs to not make me go absolutely Gaga over him.

It’s tough though lol! That’s an insane stat!
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy

1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
Extra 24 1st


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Anteaters, Bing [Bot], Jigga94, Lumps, NobleEagle, Shcritters and 42 guests