Kyle Pitts

[Ice]

Engram has zero concentration skills. He is a fine athletic specimen but simply hasn't developed as a player to be counted on when needed. Dude has skillets for hands. I bet he has had more drops than any since entering the league. He gets targets by default IMO.

I'll bet Engram's metrics were probably better than Kelce's but there is a key difference. One is a HOF player that can catch and plays hard every play.

It is obvious that if you excel in the 3-cone you will suck and DK proved the reverse is true!

Sure, but it's not like anyone expected Travis Kelce to become one of the best TEs ever.

As always athletic metrics mean nothing if you just aren't that good at football, but despite the drops, I don't think Engram is bad at all. He could still become a high-end TE.

So you're the one who voted him to the Pro Bowl

[bjd5211]

Really, Engram's only flaws outside of blocking is that he's struggled with health for a few seasons.

And that he can't catch the ball.

[briank]

Pitts is absolutely comparable to Engram statistically and athletically. Engram doesn't have the size, but he was an athletic freak coming out of college.

I am not on board with "absolutely comparable" to Engram, he was straight speed at the position coming out of college. Pitts is 3-4" taller, with similiar speed and has a much more prolific red zone resume. The NFL covets playmakers and match up nightmares in 2021, Pitts is both and will be a top 10 NFL selection and will be the 2nd pass catcher drafted IMO. If I have to wait a year, so be it. I want all of him I can get

You're taking my comment out of context. I'm not saying absolutely in the sense that they are the same player. I noted the size difference in the same comment. My point is that it is absolutely relevant to compare the 2.

[briank]

I am not on board with "absolutely comparable" to Engram, he was straight speed at the position coming out of college. Pitts is 3-4" taller, with similiar speed and has a much more prolific red zone resume. The NFL covets playmakers and match up nightmares in 2021, Pitts is both and will be a top 10 NFL selection and will be the 2nd pass catcher drafted IMO. If I have to wait a year, so be it. I want all of him I can get

Engram was:

98th percentile in 40YD
82nd percentile in Vert
94th percentile in Broad Jump
80th percentile in 20YS
88th percentile in 3Cone

If Pitts replicates the above, everyone will be absolutely thrilled.

Engram had an elite athletic profile for a TE coming out of college on top of good production. He was a mismatch nightmare in college and fit the direction the NFL is going with receiving TEs. Really, Engram's only flaws outside of blocking is that he's struggled with health for a few seasons.

Hey guys,

Need some advice on Pitts. I have a pretty solid team in a 1 QB league start 10 PPR with my main guys being Murray, Cook, Gibson, Aaron Jones, Jefferson, Godwin, Lamb, Reagor, Mooney, Hardman. I also have the 1.01 via trade and only have Jonnu as my TE. I think 1.01 is too early to go TE as it's my biggest need and I love Ja'Marr Chase. Do you think I would be crazy to take Pitts at 1.01 in a non TE premium? I know he will be gone by 1.05 and I'm not sure if the other TE's will fall to my pick in the 2nd round. Appreciate your thoughts.

Personally, I think it's crazy to take him at 1.01. Trade down to 1.04 and take him there if you must. If someone is crazy enough to take him before 1.04, you'll still get an elite prospect.

[briank]

Engram has zero concentration skills. He is a fine athletic specimen but simply hasn't developed as a player to be counted on when needed. Dude has skillets for hands. I bet he has had more drops than any since entering the league. He gets targets by default IMO.

I'll bet Engram's metrics were probably better than Kelce's but there is a key difference. One is a HOF player that can catch and plays hard every play.

It is obvious that if you excel in the 3-cone you will suck and DK proved the reverse is true!

Engram didn't have a problem with drops until last season. It's amazing what 1 drop in prime time can do to someone's perception.

We're not comparing Engram today to Pitts. We're comparing Engram as a prospect to the prospect Pitts.

[briank]

Really, Engram's only flaws outside of blocking is that he's struggled with health for a few seasons.

And that he can't catch the ball.

Again, his hands were never a problem in college, or in his first 2 years in the NFL. Engram has also had terrible QB play. Bringing up a problem that developed in year 3 has absolutely nothing to do with each of their prospect profiles.

[wickerkat1212]

How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?

[briank]

How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?

First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.

[bjd5211]

Engram didn't have a problem with drops until last season. It's amazing what 1 drop in prime time can do to someone's perception.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF/status/1 ... 2953746432

Except he has more drops than any TE in the league since he came into the league, it wasn't just "1 drop in prime time". The fact that he's only played in 50 of a possible 64 career regular season games makes that "accomplishment" even more impressive.

[briank]

Engram didn't have a problem with drops until last season. It's amazing what 1 drop in prime time can do to someone's perception.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF/status/1 ... 2953746432

Except he has more drops than any TE in the league since he came into the league, it wasn't just "1 drop in prime time". The fact that he's only played in 50 of a possible 64 career regular season games makes that "accomplishment" even more impressive.

He had just 3 drops in each of his 1st 2 seasons.

Drop Rate:
2018: 4.7%
2019: 4.4%

Let's compare that to the GOAT:

Kelce:

2018: 4.7%
2019: 5.9%

That stat is heavily driven by last year's performance. For the 3rd time, drops were not an issue before last year.

[Farley]

How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?

First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.

Why is it so absurd?

You subscribe to the "I never draft a TE in round 1" philosophy. But, you've stated that you're willing to make an exception for Pitts.

Others subscribe to the "take a TE in back half of 1st" philosophy. But, they seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him mid-1st.

Still others may have no trouble being patient with TE's (or, more than likely play in TE premium), and are more open to drafting TE's earlier (mid-late 1st). They, too, seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him with an earlier 1st.

Seems like almost everyone is ready to make some sort of an exception for Pitts this year (especially if he actually goes top 6 of NFL draft.)

[Sriracha]

How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?

First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.

Why is it so absurd?

You subscribe to the "I never draft a TE in round 1" philosophy. But, you've stated that you're willing to make an exception for Pitts.

Others subscribe to the "take a TE in back half of 1st" philosophy. But, they seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him mid-1st.

Still others may have no trouble being patient with TE's (or, more than likely play in TE premium), and are more open to drafting TE's earlier (mid-late 1st). They, too, seem willing to make an exception for Pitts and take him with an earlier 1st.

Seems like almost everyone is ready to make some sort of an exception for Pitts this year (especially if he actually goes top 6 of NFL draft.)

It's just an inefficient allocation of draft capital.

Choosing a RB/WR/QB (in SF) over a TE is simply the arbitrage play. The upside for hitting on an elite RB, WR, QB is at worst equal to, but usually better than hitting on an elite TE. The return on investment is faster. Even if these TE's do hit (like Noah Fant his rookie year) the average fantasy player won't recognize it, and the ones that do will still likely undervalue them based on how divergent they are from consensus rankings.

Let's go all the way back to 2019 when we had two "generational TE talents" in Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson. Noah Fant put up the 5th most rookie receiving yards in two decades at the highest efficiency (in terms of YPRR, YPR, YPT). His value did not shoot up, and near every single fantasy player would've given you Fant+ for either Kyler Murary, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, DK Metcalf. Players selected behind them in a lot of rookie drafts Daniel Jones, AJB, Deebo Samuel, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Devin Singletary, Drew Lock could've also probably netted you them from a lot of owners.

And 2019 was a relatively weak draft class.

In this draft class, with 5 1st round QBs, 6 elite WR prospects, 2 - 3 stud RB prospects.. it makes absolutely no sense to go Pitts in the mid 1st unless you have a crystal ball telling you which of these guys will hit, which will bust, or that Pitts is going to make Travis Kelce look like a schmuck in 2 years.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Anyone remember Marques Colston?

[Sriracha]

Anyone remember Marques Colston?

7th round TE out of Hofstra who was converted to WR?

[wickerkat1212]

How high in the NFL draft does he have to go for you to think he's elite, unique, a stud? Top half? First round? Just curious what it will take for those that aren't believers OR to confirm for those that are already on board? I know draft capital is important. Thoughts?

First of all, I do think he's an elite prospect. I do think he's unique. I do think he could be a stud. I also think there's a good chance he'll be drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round and possibly in the top 10. I just don't think any situation justifies ranking him as the TE4 in a startup. Too many can't miss TE miss in fantasy. It has historically been a difficult position to predict. I'm fully in the don't take a rookie TE in the first round of rookie drafts group because of historical context. I'm excited enough for Pitts' unique profile that I'm willing to take him in the back half of the 1st. I just think it's absurd how far the hype has gone and how willing people are to ignore history.

Oh I wouldn't put him TE4 in a startup, that's way too early. AGREE. I have him in the back half of the first round of rookie drafts as well. I have the #7 and #8 and both teams have TEs that are "okay" so it could be BPA and need.

Harris
Etienne
Chase
Smith
Williams
Lawrence
Bateman

I could see Pitts and 7 or 8.