Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

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Pac_Eddy
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:59 pm

AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:50 pm I have no concerns about JJ doing it again, but those other 3 HAVE done it again.
Careful! I used this logic to suggest that DJ Moore isn't in the same tier as Calvin Ridley and I got mobbed. This same thread, a few pages ago.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:10 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:59 pm
AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:50 pm I have no concerns about JJ doing it again, but those other 3 HAVE done it again.
Careful! I used this logic to suggest that DJ Moore isn't in the same tier as Calvin Ridley and I got mobbed. This same thread, a few pages ago.
Just imagine how bad it would have been had the god Dalton been Moore's QB. :D
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby hoos89 » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:25 pm

AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:50 pm When ranking dynasty wrs it's hard not to have JJ insanely high, I would still have Metcalf, AJB, and Hill over him. The only reason they are higher is because I've seen it from them in a 2nd/more years.
I have no concerns about JJ doing it again, but those other 3 HAVE done it again.
I also have no issue with others ranking him higher and taking that, albeit small, risk.
Did Metcalf really do "it" as a rookie though? Is 58/900/7 doing "it"? AJB had a materially better rookie season (52/1,051/8) than Metcalf so...I suppose I could see that point for him if "it" just means a WR3 season (in PPG).

All 3 of these guys have exactly 1 WR1 season between them. Only Jefferson's came as a rookie. And that's not even considering that Jefferson is still 21 for 6 months and the other two were 22 at the end of last season. My other issue with this is that we just saw Jefferson as a rookie produce at a very comparable rate to Metcalf and AJB as sophomores.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby AussieMate » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:49 pm

hoos89 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:25 pm
AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:50 pm When ranking dynasty wrs it's hard not to have JJ insanely high, I would still have Metcalf, AJB, and Hill over him. The only reason they are higher is because I've seen it from them in a 2nd/more years.
I have no concerns about JJ doing it again, but those other 3 HAVE done it again.
I also have no issue with others ranking him higher and taking that, albeit small, risk.
Did Metcalf really do "it" as a rookie though? Is 58/900/7 doing "it"? AJB had a materially better rookie season (52/1,051/8) than Metcalf so...I suppose I could see that point for him if "it" just means a WR3 season (in PPG).

All 3 of these guys have exactly 1 WR1 season between them. Only Jefferson's came as a rookie. And that's not even considering that Jefferson is still 21 for 6 months and the other two were 22 at the end of last season. My other issue with this is that we just saw Jefferson as a rookie produce at a very comparable rate to Metcalf and AJB as sophomores.
If Metcalf's rookie season isn't "doing it" then people are spoilt on early breakouts. They both looked the part of an alpha WR for 2 years, thats about it for me, its just the 2 yrs of seeing it in the NFL that puts them ahead. JJ would still be top 5 easily.

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Ice » Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:09 pm

hoos89 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:25 pm
AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:50 pm When ranking dynasty wrs it's hard not to have JJ insanely high, I would still have Metcalf, AJB, and Hill over him. The only reason they are higher is because I've seen it from them in a 2nd/more years.
I have no concerns about JJ doing it again, but those other 3 HAVE done it again.
I also have no issue with others ranking him higher and taking that, albeit small, risk.
Did Metcalf really do "it" as a rookie though? Is 58/900/7 doing "it"? AJB had a materially better rookie season (52/1,051/8) than Metcalf so...I suppose I could see that point for him if "it" just means a WR3 season (in PPG).

All 3 of these guys have exactly 1 WR1 season between them. Only Jefferson's came as a rookie. And that's not even considering that Jefferson is still 21 for 6 months and the other two were 22 at the end of last season. My other issue with this is that we just saw Jefferson as a rookie produce at a very comparable rate to Metcalf and AJB as sophomores.
Both really did it...

BTW, even mentioning an age difference between 21 and 6 months and 22 is absolutely ridiculous. There is zero logic. Not blaming you but it is just a silly narrative we hear all the time around here and it borders on insanity.

That is like someone making the argument that DK and AJB are built like the Greek God Zeus compared to the scrawny Jefferson who is one hit from a wheel chair so the Jefferson advocates need their heads examined for selecting him over these two.

Additionally, the ancient Adams just turned 28 and averaged over 26 points a game or between 8.5 and 10 more points per game. These young pups have miles to go to get to that level.

The reality is all 3 are young and show stud qualities. Everyone will like them all but most may ever so slightly like one over the other. No way there will be major consensus.

Personally of these 3; I like them DK, AJB Jefferson in order but love owning these players in various leagues. Jefferson has the most risk due to the most tenuous situation. There simply are more unknown variables over the next few years. Additionally, Jefferson has earned DB1 coverage next year so he won't be sneaking up on anyone weekly. That said he sure looks up to the challenge.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby hoos89 » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:02 pm

AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:49 pm
hoos89 wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:25 pm
AussieMate wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 2:50 pm When ranking dynasty wrs it's hard not to have JJ insanely high, I would still have Metcalf, AJB, and Hill over him. The only reason they are higher is because I've seen it from them in a 2nd/more years.
I have no concerns about JJ doing it again, but those other 3 HAVE done it again.
I also have no issue with others ranking him higher and taking that, albeit small, risk.
Did Metcalf really do "it" as a rookie though? Is 58/900/7 doing "it"? AJB had a materially better rookie season (52/1,051/8) than Metcalf so...I suppose I could see that point for him if "it" just means a WR3 season (in PPG).

All 3 of these guys have exactly 1 WR1 season between them. Only Jefferson's came as a rookie. And that's not even considering that Jefferson is still 21 for 6 months and the other two were 22 at the end of last season. My other issue with this is that we just saw Jefferson as a rookie produce at a very comparable rate to Metcalf and AJB as sophomores.
If Metcalf's rookie season isn't "doing it" then people are spoilt on early breakouts. They both looked the part of an alpha WR for 2 years, thats about it for me, its just the 2 yrs of seeing it in the NFL that puts them ahead. JJ would still be top 5 easily.
My point is that a good rookie season like 58/900/7 is not the same thing as a season of high level performance and should not be counted as "doing it" for multiple seasons in the way that, say, Tyreek, Nuk and Adams have.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby jcc6fd » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:10 pm

CGW wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:36 pm Mizelle January data is up, and as expected JJ jumped to reflect his end of season numbers. Hes right there with Hill and AJB, and a bit after DK. Seems about right, and hard to fault anyone for having them in any order at the top.

5 DK
6 Adams
9 JJ
10 Hill
11 AJB
16 Lamb
JJ goes up and somehow AJB falls from December. Weird.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring SF
QB: Mahomes, Hurts, Minshew
RB: Kamara, K. Hunt, Warren, Bigsby, D. Cook, Jamaal Williams, J. Wilson, McLaughlin, McKinnon, J. Kelley
WR: A.J. Brown, Diggs, K. Allen, C. Watson, Cooks, Pickens, W. Robinson
TE: Kelce, J. Smith, Musgrave

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby hoos89 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:54 am

Jefferson recently moved up to dynasty WR1 on KTC, 4th overall.
Team 1: 2012-2016
2013 Champion, 2012 Runner-Up


Team 2: 12 Team PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 R/W/T, 23 man rosters, est. 2016
2021 Champion, 2020 Runner-up
Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
Andrews, McBride, Engram
IR(3): Chubb, M. Williams, Rodgers
Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
2024 Picks: 3, 4, 5

Team 3: 12 Team PPR, 6 pt Pass TD - 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 3 R/W/T, 28 man rosters, est. 2019
2021 Champion, 2022 Runner-up
Jackson, Love, Tannehill, Z. Wilson
Barkley, Mixon, Mostert, J. Wilson, CEH, Gaskin, J. Hill
J. Jefferson, Diggs, Waddle, Evans, Metcalf, Sutton, R. Moore, Slayton, Berrios, Carter, Dortch, Powell, Raymond
Kelce, Dissly, Hooper
2024 Picks: 1

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby DJB » Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:46 am

Jefferson with an ADP of WR4 in Feb.

Smoky hot!
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby murphysxm » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:03 am

I really want to root for this kid and think he is full of talent, but I worry about meeting expectations moving forward
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Cameron Giles » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:37 am

murphysxm wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:03 am I really want to root for this kid and think he is full of talent, but I worry about meeting expectations moving forward
The great news is that he's already one of the better route runners in the NFL. His early separation numbers vs. man and press coverage are fantastic. So, it's unlikely that he's going to just drop underwhelm people going forward.

You just have to keep expectations in check. It's not easy to build off a 1400 yard rookie season.

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby hockeyBjj » Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:27 pm

Homer trade, but why not when he’s this hot?

I moved 1.06, Ceedee Lamb, Kenny Golloday, 2.11 and 2022 2nd and got Justin Jefferson and Nick Chubb
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2022: 1-8
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Achane, Charbonnet, Algier, McBride, waiver trash
WR: JSN, QJ, Addison, Dotson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Hyatt, T Dell, Boutte, Skowronek, Quez Watkins, Greg Dortch, waiver trash
TE: Hockenson, F Monroe, Juwan, Musgrave
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Saints, Dicker

picks-
2024- 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5
2025 1,1,1,2,3,4,5

team 2- 12 team SF, .5PPR, .5TE boost, 1QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
2022: 8-1
Finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd :wall:
QB: Ljax, GenoD Jones, Minshew, Dobbs
RB: CMC, Stevenson, A Jones, Chubb, A Mattison, D cook, Perine, Mckinnon,
WR:Tyreek, Diggs, C Kupp, D Adams, Keenan Allen, Lockett, Gallup, A Lazard, Hodgins
TE: Kelce, LaPorta, Irv Smith,
No picks until 2026 5th rounder lol

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby CGW » Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:42 am

hockeyBjj wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:27 pm Homer trade, but why not when he’s this hot?

I moved 1.06, Ceedee Lamb, Kenny Golloday, 2.11 and 2022 2nd and got Justin Jefferson and Nick Chubb
Big upgrade at two positions for the 1.06.

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:10 am

hockeyBjj wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:27 pm Homer trade, but why not when he’s this hot?

I moved 1.06, Ceedee Lamb, Kenny Golloday, 2.11 and 2022 2nd and got Justin Jefferson and Nick Chubb
I personally like it and see it as:

Chubb > Lamb
Jefferson >= Golloday, 1.06, 2.11, 22 2nd
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Kupp, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:10 am

This is Justin Jefferson's MOM, and I just want to say, he is the #1 WR in Dynasty...hate to say it, but I told you so!
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Kupp, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league


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