Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

[Jigga94]

juju smith schuster

Juju had 58/917/7 as a rookie.

JJ already has 61/1039/7 with 4 games left

Lamar's MVP season wasn't his rookie year and he's a RB so I'm not sure how useful that comp is

[Pac_Eddy]

juju smith schuster

Didn't Roethlisberger miss almost all of Juju's sophomore season?

[dark_knite03]

juju smith schuster

Jefferson had no problem when Thielen was out. Cousins isn't near the qb Roethlisberger is either.

[jenkins.math]

he still needs to prove the 2nd season!!! lot of guys were really good on their 1st season and on the 2nd they were good at best.

I'd like some names of guys that were this good their rookie season that turned out to just be good, "at best"

OBJ's rookie year was his best in quite a few per game categories.

[Dynos]

juju smith schuster

Didn't Roethlisberger miss almost all of Juju's sophomore season?

this year with big ben? 572 yards. and pretty much the 3rd wr on the team no?

he was in talks as the wr1 dynasty no?

i really like btw jefferson! but all i'm saying it takes more then 1 year for any player to be considered elite

[Jigga94]

he still needs to prove the 2nd season!!! lot of guys were really good on their 1st season and on the 2nd they were good at best.

I'd like some names of guys that were this good their rookie season that turned out to just be good, "at best"

OBJ's rookie year was his best in quite a few per game categories.

That's a pretty good one, but he had 5 1,000 seasons so I'd consider that better than good at least

[bjd5211]

juju smith schuster

Didn't Roethlisberger miss almost all of Juju's sophomore season?

No, Juju's Sophomore season was what had everyone hyping him as a top 5 pick. This is year 4 for Juju.

[skinfanjon]

Lol last page of the thread with some real hard hitting analysis

[Vcize]

There have for sure been some WRs who were really good as rookies and then busted in year 2. But the percentage of them is so low it's probably not any different than guys who had 2 good years and then busted in year 3, or guys who had 3 good years and busted in year 4.

I mean heck Brandin Cooks had 4 straight 1000 yard seasons and then barely broke 500 yards in year 5. Mike Evans had 6 straight 1000 yard seasons and probably won't break 800 yards this year. I think the rookie WRs coming off of good seasons that busted represent a pretty normal/healthy bust rate in-line with even established veterans, so there is really no point in waiting until they are established veterans to move their bust rate to that of an established veteran.

And as others have pointed out, this only applies at all if we talk about rookie WRs who were merely "good". If we talk about rookie WRs who were truly elite, top 5 type players the bust rate is basically zero.

[gunfrees]

So glad the person at 1.08 (1 pick before my 1.09) chose Ruggs over Jefferson. BOA + 1st round pedigree all the way

[hoos89]

Yeah JuJu had a strong but not elite rookie season, and his breakout year was wayyyy less efficient..comparable yards and tds to Jefferson's current pace but on something like 60 more targets. You just don't see rookie seasons like this very often. OBJ is the most recent comp that makes any sense (but it was also on way more volume per game), and he followed that rookie year up with two more elite seasons.

What Jefferson is doing on a per target and per route basis as a 21 year old rookie is actually insane and possibly unprecedented.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

If any of you aren’t aware, here’s a full breakdown of rookie season hit rates based on ypg viewtopic.php?p=1928064#p1928064

everything combined (youth, draft pedigree, athleticism and rookie year production) paints a very rosy picture. The only question is will he be just very good like Amari Cooper or will he be an Uber stud like an Odell Beckham. Hard to tell. The juju comp doesn’t hold much water because historically there is a huge difference between a first year and second year breakout.

[gogobradyarm]

Lol last page of the thread with some real hard hitting analysis

Jefferson isn’t elite and could have a sophomore slump because Lamar (a QB, who actually was MVP year 2 lol), Baker Mayfield (a QB), Juju (a slot WR, who has already been outproduced).

Idk about y’all, but the analysis is so strong that I might drop Jefferson.

[Jigga94]

Lol last page of the thread with some real hard hitting analysis

Jefferson isn’t elite and could have a sophomore slump because Lamar (a QB, who actually was MVP year 2 lol), Baker Mayfield (a QB), Juju (a slot WR, who has already been outproduced).

Idk about y’all, but the analysis is so strong that I might drop Jefferson.

Lol to be fair, that was only one guy and the rest of us refuting those names as well

[CGW]

Pretty sure there's about 0 people that don't consider him a top dynasty WR right now. Maybe that one guy who plays redraft only.

I'm still taking a few WR above him in real life football and over the near term in ff(Adam's, hill, etc), but he's got to be in the conversation for top WR in dynasty long term. At this guy's age, he has the potential to put up historic career numbers over the next 10+ years. He's up there with DK and AJB for me and I could care less what order they are in...they are all good.