Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

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Vcize
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Vcize » Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:44 am

bjd5211 wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:46 am He's been phenomenal and I wish I owned more than 2 shares, but I'm still gonna stick with Lamb as my #1 WR in this rookie class, and bump up Jefferson from #3 behind Jeudy to #2. Lamb has been very impressive himself, and has done it in a far more chaotic situation than Jefferson has had to deal with due to all the QB issues Dallas has had, and has had Amari and Gallup to contend with for targets instead of just Thielen for Jefferson. They're close though.
Lamb hasn't really done it in spite of a chaotic QB situation, because he hasn't continued "doing it" since the QB situation got bad.

Lamb is averaging 36 yards per game since Dak went down. He was only pacing JJ before Dak got hurt. And as was mentioned above the target competition was washed out by the MASSIVE disparity of volume of the passing offenses they were in. Who cares if JJ was getting 22% of the targets versus CeeDee's 17% when we were talking about more raw targets overall.

Would you rather have 17% of Jeff Besos' money or 22% of my money?
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WR: Jefferson, AJ Brown, Metcalf, Hopkins, Peoples-Jones
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:07 am

Jefferson has been a star, no doubt. Like many, I underrated him.

But I think people are underrating Lamb & Jeudy, who are being held down by factors out of their control. It's fair to hold that against them somewhat, but situations change over time and WRs have long careers of productivity.

Long story short, I'd put the 2020 rookie WRs into tiers rather than fight over straight rankings. There's not a huge gap between guys in their tier and I fully expect a shuffle within a tier my this time next season.

1a. Jefferson, Claypool
1b. Lamb, Jeudy

2a. Aiyuk, Higgins
2b. Mims
2b. Reagor, Ruggs
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby murphysxm » Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:11 am

Pac_Eddy wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:07 am Jefferson has been a star, no doubt. Like many, I underrated him.

But I think people are underrating Lamb & Jeudy, who are being held down by factors out of their control. It's fair to hold that against them somewhat, but situations change over time and WRs have long careers of productivity.

Long story short, I'd put the 2020 rookie WRs into tiers rather than fight over straight rankings. There's not a huge gap between guys in their tier and I fully expect a shuffle within a tier my this time next season.

1a. Jefferson, Claypool
1b. Lamb, Jeudy

2a. Aiyuk, Higgins
2b. Mims
2b. Reagor, Ruggs
Pittman has to be included here. I have him over Mims, Reagor and Ruggs
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Pac_Eddy » Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:31 am

murphysxm wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:11 am
Pac_Eddy wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:07 am Jefferson has been a star, no doubt. Like many, I underrated him.

But I think people are underrating Lamb & Jeudy, who are being held down by factors out of their control. It's fair to hold that against them somewhat, but situations change over time and WRs have long careers of productivity.

Long story short, I'd put the 2020 rookie WRs into tiers rather than fight over straight rankings. There's not a huge gap between guys in their tier and I fully expect a shuffle within a tier my this time next season.

1a. Jefferson, Claypool
1b. Lamb, Jeudy

2a. Aiyuk, Higgins
2b. Mims
2b. Reagor, Ruggs
Pittman has to be included here. I have him over Mims, Reagor and Ruggs
Maybe. I don't know a lot about him and have no shares. I'll leave him off until I know more.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby skinfanjon » Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:23 pm

I like Lamb a lot, he's in my top 15 or so WRs, but the biggest difference between him and Jefferson is hes not being asked to win on the outside very often. Playing out of the slot is not some sort of demerit in today's NFL but if you're looking for a difference between them, its the versatility that Jefferson has shown. Lamb still has a little work to do in that department.

Love them both but I have JJ firmly a tier above Lamb, which is a reversal from where I had them at rookie draft time. I sorta wanted to elevate JJ back then too, but chickened out when push came to shove.

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby hoos89 » Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:57 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:39 am Jefferson is getting 22.5% of Minnesota's targets vs roughly 17.5% of Dallas' targets for Lamb. So yes Lamb is getting a little more volume due to the Cowboys throwing far more than the Vikings, but Jefferson is also benefiting from getting a much larger share of his teams passing attack. Plus Jefferson hasn't had the QB instability that Lamb has been dealing with and having to play with third string or practice squad QBs at times. Lamb was my #1 WR in the rookie class before the season and he's having a great year, so I'm not going to have a knee jerk reaction and suddenly move him down in my rankings 3/4 of the way through his first season because someone else is having a slightly better one in a situation that is slightly more favorable at the moment. If we were talking redraft or DFS then sure give me Jefferson over Lamb all day, but this is dynasty and more than the immediate results need to be taken into account.
Yes, but Lamb still has more raw targets and faces lighter coverage so that factor is a net benefit for him relative to Jefferson. And as noted by another poster...he hasn't been producing anywhere near the same clip since Dak went down, so you can't say he's doing anything "in spite" of a volatile QB situation. He was performing because of an elite QB situation, record-setting passing volume for the team, and favorable defensive matchups due to being the 3rd WR.

Also this is less about moving Lamb down and more about moving Jefferson up.
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Tua, Purdy Geno, Carr
JT, Ekeler, Mostert, Javonte, Chuba, D. Harris, M. Carter, J. Hill, Spiller
Chase, AJB, Amon-Ra, Aiyuk, Olave, DJM, Dell
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Taxi(4): J. Palmer, Tolbert, T. Palmer
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Kmani6 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:15 am

murphysxm wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:11 am
Pac_Eddy wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:07 am Jefferson has been a star, no doubt. Like many, I underrated him.

But I think people are underrating Lamb & Jeudy, who are being held down by factors out of their control. It's fair to hold that against them somewhat, but situations change over time and WRs have long careers of productivity.

Long story short, I'd put the 2020 rookie WRs into tiers rather than fight over straight rankings. There's not a huge gap between guys in their tier and I fully expect a shuffle within a tier my this time next season.

1a. Jefferson, Claypool
1b. Lamb, Jeudy

2a. Aiyuk, Higgins
2b. Mims
2b. Reagor, Ruggs
Pittman has to be included here. I have him over Mims, Reagor and Ruggs
I'd put him in the 2b list with Mims and then I think this is a pretty great list. Once Mims is catching passes from Lawrence next year his stock is going UP.
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QB: Kyler Murray
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WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Jamarr Chase, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy
TE: Travis Kelce

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:54 am

Who’s ready for the Griddy???
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Plank » Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:05 am

gogobradyarm wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:54 am Who’s ready for the Griddy???
Image
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Last edited by Plank on Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby chubnubbin » Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:07 am

gogobradyarm wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:54 am Who’s ready for the Griddy???
it seems like he gets to do it every week lately.

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:53 pm

That 40 yard catch was just another thing I love about JJ. He used his body to pace, and box out the defense. Nice catch.
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:10 pm

ROTY! He had 2 or 3 yards of separation on that TD. His route running is already at the top tier of the NFL.
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby skinfanjon » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:12 pm

gogobradyarm wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:54 am Who’s ready for the Griddy???
The effort on that griddy was a little weak, but I'll take it ;)

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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:17 pm

skinfanjon wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:12 pm
gogobradyarm wrote: Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:54 am Who’s ready for the Griddy???
The effort on that griddy was a little weak, but I'll take it ;)
Maybe he is saving it for the next TD :think:
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
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Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:22 pm

Players with 1000+ rec yards through 12 career games:

Odell Beckham Jr
Anquan Boldin
Randy Moss
Marques Colston
Justin Jefferson
12 Team - PPR - 30man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE
QB: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Aidan O'Connell
RB: McCaffrey, Jacobs, Barkley, Zamir White, Jaleel McLaughlin, Dowdle, Zach Evans, Dobbins
WR: AJB, London, Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Ridley, McLaurin, Dotson, Rashod Bateman
TE: Mandrews, Pitts, Likely, Otton

2024: 1.01, 1.07
2025: 3x 1st
Champ: 2020, 2021
Year 9 of my league


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