Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

[Sriracha]

Intentionally omitted. Between him turning into a bit of a headcase and the looming reality of life without Brees/with Taysom, he's not in that tier at all for me. I wouldn't give Jefferson for Thomas + 1st round pick.

Strong words.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.. the youth tax is just too highly weighted in Dynasty football.

I love, love, love Jefferson's talent. But I just don't see the WR1 ceiling given his team's offensive philosophy + lack of elite QB play; and both of those factors are unlikely to change in the next few years.

And MT has elite QB play? Brees is out and good chance he doesn't return this year for fantasy, and he's surely gone next year. I'll take Jefferson easily over MT with the looming QB issues, the age difference and all the "where there's smoke there's fire" rumblings of trade rumors and off-field drama.

MT doesn't play in a run first offense.

The path to elite WR play comes with either an elite QB, elite volume, or both.

If you lack both of them, I just don't see the path... and Michael Thomas would hardly be the first headcase that gets traded only to flourish. I realize people are scared off by Antonio Brown's implosion; but that's more of an outlier than the norm. T.O., Brandon Marshall, Stefon Diggs, Deandre Hopkins etc. have all done just fine on new teams.

We know that Michael Thomas does not need elite QB play to produce, so I'm not particularly worried about his production after getting traded.

[thebeast]

I have a bunch of the rookie WRs including Jefferson across a bunch of leagues. If I were drafting today I would take Claypool first without a thought. I think he has e highest ceiling by far. He reminds me of a cross between DK and AJ Brown.

[hoos89]

I have a bunch of the rookie WRs including Jefferson across a bunch of leagues. If I were drafting today I would take Claypool first without a thought. I think he has e highest ceiling by far. He reminds me of a cross between DK and AJ Brown.

I think Jefferson has superstar potential (and tbh I'm not sure how much longer the "potential" qualifier will be appropriate). Not one WR in the league has a "by far" higher ceiling than he does. Dude's on pace for 76/1335/9 as a 21 year old rookie in a run first offense with a game manager QB after going a combined 5/60/0 in the first 2 games of his career.

Strong words.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.. the youth tax is just too highly weighted in Dynasty football.

I love, love, love Jefferson's talent. But I just don't see the WR1 ceiling given his team's offensive philosophy + lack of elite QB play; and both of those factors are unlikely to change in the next few years.

He's only 1.5 PPG behind Nuk on the season but almost exactly 7 years younger than Nuk. To the extent there are people that are still valuing Nuk higher than Jefferson, I'd argue the past performance tax is higher than the youth tax.

[skinfanjon]

I have a bunch of the rookie WRs including Jefferson across a bunch of leagues. If I were drafting today I would take Claypool first without a thought. I think he has e highest ceiling by far. He reminds me of a cross between DK and AJ Brown.

I really debated adding him to my list and I could easily see someone having him in that top tier. He looks like a true stud to me as well. That said, I prefer Jefferson and have a small margin between them. If I'm straining to separate them I see Jefferson as a bit more complete...which is scary because to your point, that means Claypool probably has more room for growth. Just have slightly more confidence in Jefferson hitting his ceiling is all.

The question when it comes to guys like Michael Thomas or Hopkins is, are they really an immediate upgrade? Not in my opinion. And if you decide they are a little safer right now, is it a big enough difference to sacrifice 5 or 6 years of age for? My answers were no to both questions. Adams and Tyreek are the really the only two established receivers I'd concede are clearly immediate upgrades. Hill for the absurd ceiling and Adams for the ridiculous consistency. Hill has the checkered past though and Adams is about to turn 28. Give me Jefferson.

[Vcize]

Strong words.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.. the youth tax is just too highly weighted in Dynasty football.

I love, love, love Jefferson's talent. But I just don't see the WR1 ceiling given his team's offensive philosophy + lack of elite QB play; and both of those factors are unlikely to change in the next few years.

And MT has elite QB play? Brees is out and good chance he doesn't return this year for fantasy, and he's surely gone next year. I'll take Jefferson easily over MT with the looming QB issues, the age difference and all the "where there's smoke there's fire" rumblings of trade rumors and off-field drama.

MT doesn't play in a run first offense.

The path to elite WR play comes with either an elite QB, elite volume, or both.

If you lack both of them, I just don't see the path... and Michael Thomas would hardly be the first headcase that gets traded only to flourish. I realize people are scared off by Antonio Brown's implosion; but that's more of an outlier than the norm. T.O., Brandon Marshall, Stefon Diggs, Deandre Hopkins etc. have all done just fine on new teams.

We know that Michael Thomas does not need elite QB play to produce, so I'm not particularly worried about his production after getting traded.

I can't say I agree here. You know who were drafted into the run firstiest of run first offenses? AJ Brown and DK Metcalf. Now two years later there is plenty of volume to go around.

Kirk Cousins may not be Drew Brees (nor is Drew Brees anymore, fwiw), but the dude has thrown for 4000+ yards 4 times and has thrown for 5000+ yards once. That's plenty to go around to support a top dynasty WR. That's not to mention that the dude is 21 and as we saw above with Seattle and Tennessee, situations change fast. JJ will likely play in a run first system for only 10-20% of his career or so, and he's putting up WR1 numbers in the meantime anyway.

Plenty of fantasy stud WRs have never played with elite QB play. And I have no idea why you think Jefferson can't get elite volume. The dude just got 13 targets in the first game he played without Adam Thielen, and Thielen's days of commanding target volume could come to an end at any time.

[Vcize]

The only guys who even live in his neighborhood are Tyreek, Adams, Hopkins, Metcalf, and AJ Brown.

I'll take Jefferson.

So no Michael Thomas?

Intentionally omitted. Between him turning into a bit of a headcase and the looming reality of life without Brees/with Taysom, he's not in that tier at all for me. I wouldn't give Jefferson for Thomas + 1st round pick.

Agreed. I have no idea why anyone would be interested in MT at full value right now. The NFL is littered with WRs who produce similarly to him that DON'T have off the field issues and that DON'T have a complete enigma as to what their QB situation will look like going forward. There's just no reason to invest in someone like that when you can invest the same amount to get someone else that is just as productive and doesn't have those questions.

[AussieMate]

And I'm probably leaving out a ton of names. Not to mention, there's another good WR class coming in (though not as good as 2020) with Chase, Waddle, Smith, Moore...just to name a few.

[/quote]

Man before this season I would have argued that the top end talent was better as I LOVED Chase, Waddle, and Smith (was hoping Smith came out last year so I could snag him in late 2nd) but after the season so far I can't rightly argue anyone in 2021 is going to out do Jefferson/Claypool/Lamb etc
What class so far, and I still have high hopes for Reagor/Ruggs/Mims (with Lawrence).

Screwed the quotes thing around sorry

[Sriracha]

And MT has elite QB play? Brees is out and good chance he doesn't return this year for fantasy, and he's surely gone next year. I'll take Jefferson easily over MT with the looming QB issues, the age difference and all the "where there's smoke there's fire" rumblings of trade rumors and off-field drama.

MT doesn't play in a run first offense.

The path to elite WR play comes with either an elite QB, elite volume, or both.

If you lack both of them, I just don't see the path... and Michael Thomas would hardly be the first headcase that gets traded only to flourish. I realize people are scared off by Antonio Brown's implosion; but that's more of an outlier than the norm. T.O., Brandon Marshall, Stefon Diggs, Deandre Hopkins etc. have all done just fine on new teams.

We know that Michael Thomas does not need elite QB play to produce, so I'm not particularly worried about his production after getting traded.

I can't say I agree here. You know who were drafted into the run firstiest of run first offenses? AJ Brown and DK Metcalf. Now two years later there is plenty of volume to go around.

Kirk Cousins may not be Drew Brees (nor is Drew Brees anymore, fwiw), but the dude has thrown for 4000+ yards 4 times and has thrown for 5000+ yards once. That's plenty to go around to support a top dynasty WR. That's not to mention that the dude is 21 and as we saw above with Seattle and Tennessee, situations change fast. JJ will likely play in a run first system for only 10-20% of his career or so, and he's putting up WR1 numbers in the meantime anyway.

Plenty of fantasy stud WRs have never played with elite QB play. And I have no idea why you think Jefferson can't get elite volume. The dude just got 13 targets in the first game he played without Adam Thielen, and Thielen's days of commanding target volume could come to an end at any time.

AJB's volume is what's preventing him from entering the #1 WR conversation. He's been taking 69 yard slants to the house to make up for his criminally low volume. His volume is probably capped until Corey Davis leaves this year in FA.

DK is tethered to Russel Wilson, a likely HoF QB still in the prime of his career.

I think there's a misunderstanding here. I didn't say that you need an elite QB to be an elite WR. I said you need to either have elite volume, or an elite QB to be an elite WR.

Adam Thielen is getting up there in age.. but he's also a slot receiver and those tend to hold onto their production longer... and he's showing no signs of slowing down just yet. Similarly to AJB, I don't see the path to elite volume opening up on this offense until Thielen is out of the picture or Zimmer has a coaching philosophy change.

[gogobradyarm]

Strong words.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.. the youth tax is just too highly weighted in Dynasty football.

I love, love, love Jefferson's talent. But I just don't see the WR1 ceiling given his team's offensive philosophy + lack of elite QB play; and both of those factors are unlikely to change in the next few years.

And MT has elite QB play? Brees is out and good chance he doesn't return this year for fantasy, and he's surely gone next year. I'll take Jefferson easily over MT with the looming QB issues, the age difference and all the "where there's smoke there's fire" rumblings of trade rumors and off-field drama.

MT doesn't play in a run first offense.

The path to elite WR play comes with either an elite QB, elite volume, or both.

If you lack both of them, I just don't see the path... and Michael Thomas would hardly be the first headcase that gets traded only to flourish. I realize people are scared off by Antonio Brown's implosion; but that's more of an outlier than the norm. T.O., Brandon Marshall, Stefon Diggs, Deandre Hopkins etc. have all done just fine on new teams.

We know that Michael Thomas does not need elite QB play to produce, so I'm not particularly worried about his production after getting traded.

Taysom Hill (two starts): ~20 passing attempts per game.
Brees (3 full games prior to injury): ~35 attempts per game.

That is a ~40% reduction is passing.

The RB's (Kamara + Murray) since Taysom took over: ~27 carries per game.
The RB's (Kamara + Murray) previous 3 games with Brees: ~19 carries per game.

That is a ~40% increase in rushing.

Actually, from the look of it, MT does indeed now play in a run first offense. Small sample size or not, it is the way it's gonna be for the next couple weeks, and possibly the future in New Orleans.

MT stock, TANKING!

[Kmani6]

And I'm probably leaving out a ton of names. Not to mention, there's another good WR class coming in (though not as good as 2020) with Chase, Waddle, Smith, Moore...just to name a few.

Man before this season I would have argued that the top end talent was better as I LOVED Chase, Waddle, and Smith (was hoping Smith came out last year so I could snag him in late 2nd) but after the season so far I can't rightly argue anyone in 2021 is going to out do Jefferson/Claypool/Lamb etc
What class so far, and I still have high hopes for Reagor/Ruggs/Mims (with Lawrence).

Screwed the quotes thing around sorry
[/quote]

While we can't predict future production from college to the NFL for wide receivers, Chase is the best prospect out of both the 2019 and 2020 classes.

[Ice]

Jefferson is a very good young WR. He is not Michael Thomas.

I own Jefferson and start him but his target share isn't consistent enough at this point to be putting him in an elite class.

In his 11 games he has had 6 under 15 points and 5 of those are under 10 points. The potential is obviously there so his value is strong but I would temper expectations a bit until his consistency improves before valuing him with the uber studs of today given he isn't even the #1 option on his own team.

Thomas has obviously been hurt and now his QB is gone but that WR is a beast and target monster.

[skinfanjon]

Jefferson is a very good young WR. He is not Michael Thomas.

I own Jefferson and start him but his target share isn't consistent enough at this point to be putting him in an elite class.

In his 11 games he has had 6 under 15 points and 5 of those are under 10 points. The potential is obviously there so his value is strong but I would temper expectations a bit until his consistency improves before valuing him with the uber studs of today given he isn't even the #1 option on his own team.

Thomas has obviously been hurt and now his QB is gone but that WR is a beast and target monster.

He's also drifting into AB/OBJ mental terrority, and Sean Payton is hellbent on making Taysom Hill the starting QB of that franchise. Good luck with MT shares if when that happens.

You really have to throw out Jefferson's first two games. The Vikes were dumb and still milking him along. Despite the limitations of the franchise/quarterback/offense, he's 5th in scoring from week 3 on (within 3 points of 2nd). Only Tyreek is significantly ahead. Sure, he's had three weeks under double digits in that time, but he's also had a couple potential week winners and 4 other very solid outings.

Let's throw the fantasy analysis out though. Point blank, choosing one of them for a real NFL team today, I'm taking Jefferson rather easily. His route running chops are superb and he makes FAR more downfield plays than Thomas does. As good as MT is, he's benefitted from being Brees security blanket a great deal.

[Vcize]

Jefferson is a very good young WR. He is not Michael Thomas.

I own Jefferson and start him but his target share isn't consistent enough at this point to be putting him in an elite class.

In his 11 games he has had 6 under 15 points and 5 of those are under 10 points. The potential is obviously there so his value is strong but I would temper expectations a bit until his consistency improves before valuing him with the uber studs of today given he isn't even the #1 option on his own team.

Thomas has obviously been hurt and now his QB is gone but that WR is a beast and target monster.

It's not like MT is a top 5 WR this year. He's WR59 in PPG even when he's played. To bounce back he has to get through the headcase issues and the cloudy QB situation, that looks nothing but cloudy going forward, has to be cleared up. That's not some easy task.

Obviously people will get stuck on "MT has proven it before", but is that really worth more for projecting future production than the hot start JJ has had as a rookie?

FF is like poker. You never know for sure how a hand is going to work out, the best you can do is play the odds, and calculate it against pot odds.

So which has better odds. That JJ goes on to have a great career like ~80% of the guys that have a rookie season do. Or that MT bounces back to where he was like ~40% of the guys who have a major down season at age 27-28 do?

But it's not just the odds, now we need to look at the pot odds. Because JJ hitting like ~80% of those rookie stud WRs do is going to leave him with MUCH more value than MT bouncing back like ~40% of late 20's underperforming WRs do. If JJ hits he gets prime OBJ type value. If MT hits he gets age 28+ Julio value, which is nice, but nowhere near prime OBJ type value.

[hoos89]

Jefferson is a very good young WR. He is not Michael Thomas.

I own Jefferson and start him but his target share isn't consistent enough at this point to be putting him in an elite class.

In his 11 games he has had 6 under 15 points and 5 of those are under 10 points. The potential is obviously there so his value is strong but I would temper expectations a bit until his consistency improves before valuing him with the uber studs of today given he isn't even the #1 option on his own team.

Thomas has obviously been hurt and now his QB is gone but that WR is a beast and target monster.

Justin Jefferson is a 21 year old rookie on pace for 76/1,335/9 on only 105 targets. Through last week, he was 1st in the league in yards per target and 2nd in yards per route...in spite of being 47th in catchable target rate. Fantasy points per route are 0.57 (7th) (probably higher after this week), which is the same as Antonio Brown in 2017 when he led the league in that metric en route to 101/1,533/9 and overall WR1 in total points in only 13 games and change. We should not expect consistency from rookies, and using that as an excuse to knock him from elite territory is actually insane. He has the measurables, rookie production, and intangibles of a super stud.

Also...yeah he's not 2019 Thomas (yet) but neither is 2020 Thomas. Jefferson does compare very, very favorably to rookie Thomas, though.

[Ice]

Jefferson is a very good young WR. He is not Michael Thomas.

I own Jefferson and start him but his target share isn't consistent enough at this point to be putting him in an elite class.

In his 11 games he has had 6 under 15 points and 5 of those are under 10 points. The potential is obviously there so his value is strong but I would temper expectations a bit until his consistency improves before valuing him with the uber studs of today given he isn't even the #1 option on his own team.

Thomas has obviously been hurt and now his QB is gone but that WR is a beast and target monster.

Justin Jefferson is a 21 year old rookie on pace for 76/1,335/9 on only 105 targets. It's actually insane to not put him in elite territory...we should not expect consistency from rookies.

Also...yeah he's not 2019 Thomas (yet) but neither is 2020 Thomas. Jefferson does compare very, very favorably to rookie Thomas, though.

His potential looks elite no doubt but 16.5 PPG for a WR is WR2 numbers today. Thielen as an example is in fact putting up elite numbers coming in at 5th overall putting up 18.31 PPG.

I get the love; I traded next's 1st and a player to take him 1.9 in a money league so obviously like him.

It's one thing to say a young player has elite potential but he simply isn't putting up elite numbers just yet with 7 starts at 5 targets or less. That said, he sure was exciting last week though and really glad I own a share.

Players need to consider he isn't facing the top DB most weeks at this point as Thielen is the man. I do think he has the ability to be a legit WR1 but his body of work is still small and a bit erratic.