Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

[Cameron Giles]

Regarding dynasty value, Mike Evans can really only go down from here given his age. Big bulky WR's, fall hard, and fall fast. I'm not saying it will happen tomorrow, as historical trends show that WRs can produce at elite levels into the early 30's, but when it happens, it will happen fast and if you own Evans, you will be losing substantial value.

At some point with Evans, his production is certainly going to outproduce his value. You can argue it has for a while considering how underrated he is. Buy those players on the decline, but don't buy them at 26/27, and expect their perceived value to not start to fall at 29/30.

At the same time, buy Jefferson in the rookie draft, and gain a ton of value so that you can keep churning and burning.

What you're saying is correct, although if you play dynasty long enough you realize that you're eventually going to lose value on great players the longer you keep them. Julio, AB, Dez, Megatron, AJ, it doesn't matter. Everyone's been caught with their pants down when a star player regresses while they're still helping them win.

Trade value is important, but winning leagues is still the name of the game. Sure, you can flip a great asset to stay ahead of the curve, but that haul isn't necessarily going to maintain your chances of winning or put you in a better position.

I don't think you should fear losing value on great players, but your post above it is correct. We can't lean too hard in any specific way in dynasty. Overall, Evans isn't untradeable. Despite a rough season, he's currently WR14 in standard and WR17 in PPR. So he's still giving you about Top-15 production, which is pretty damn encourging for a bounce back.

[Vcize]

Regarding dynasty value, Mike Evans can really only go down from here given his age. Big bulky WR's, fall hard, and fall fast. I'm not saying it will happen tomorrow, as historical trends show that WRs can produce at elite levels into the early 30's, but when it happens, it will happen fast and if you own Evans, you will be losing substantial value.

At some point with Evans, his production is certainly going to outproduce his value. You can argue it has for a while considering how underrated he is. Buy those players on the decline, but don't buy them at 26/27, and expect their perceived value to not start to fall at 29/30.

At the same time, buy Jefferson in the rookie draft, and gain a ton of value so that you can keep churning and burning.

What you're saying is correct, although if you play dynasty long enough you realize that you're eventually going to lose value on great players the longer you keep them. Julio, AB, Dez, Megatron, AJ, it doesn't matter. Everyone's been caught with their pants down when a star player regresses while they're still helping them win.

Trade value is important, but winning leagues is still the name of the game. Sure, you can flip a great asset to stay ahead of the curve, but that haul isn't necessarily going to maintain your chances of winning or put you in a better position.

I don't think you should fear losing value on great players, but your post above it is correct. We can't lean too hard in any specific way in dynasty. Overall, Evans isn't untradeable. Despite a rough season, he's currently WR14 in standard and WR17 in PPR. So he's still giving you about Top-15 production, which is pretty damn encourging for a bounce back.

But the problem is you're just as likely to get caught with your pants down at 27-28 as you are at 31-32, and maybe (probably) MORESO when you're talking about guys that are already regressing/underperforming at age 27-28.

I love buying guys like Lockett, Woods, etc. Guys in that age range that are still performing at their career best or even improving on it but are cheap. But when people attempt to buy low on an underperforming player in that age range I feel like they DRASTICALLY underestimate the likelyhood that player is NOT going to "bounce back". It seems much higher than those buyers seem likely to admit and I'm not sure it's any higher a percentage than the chance that a random 1st round rookie going to hit. And again that's disregarding that a random 21-22 year old rookie hitting is going to be worth a LOT more than a 28 year old bouncing back is.

I feel like a guy like Evans who used to be great but is underperming his career averages is both more expensive than a guy like Lockett/Woods who is improving on their career averages at that age, but is also less likely to perform at a higher level going forward than those guys.

If I were looking to buy an older WR at a discount I'd rather buy Lockett/Woods at their price than Evans at his, personally.

[hoos89]

Let's get this thread back on track: Justin Jefferson good.

[gogobradyarm]

Let's get this thread back on track: Justin Jefferson good.

Yeah, he really is. They gotta pepper him with some targets.

[hoos89]

2 TDs today

[bjd5211]

I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.

Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.

Disagree, but that's okay. The league has 2 bench spots and I have Adams + Allen as weekly starts at WR. The decision was Allen Robinson, or Justin Jefferson at flex. Jefferson had 5/8 single digit games and Robinson had 1/9. In a 3-round play-off bracket I'll take the guy less likely to lose me the matchup then win.

My team name is 'Final Boss' so I know what I am talking about

You screwed up.

[waynesworld1234]

Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.

Disagree, but that's okay. The league has 2 bench spots and I have Adams + Allen as weekly starts at WR. The decision was Allen Robinson, or Justin Jefferson at flex. Jefferson had 5/8 single digit games and Robinson had 1/9. In a 3-round play-off bracket I'll take the guy less likely to lose me the matchup then win.

My team name is 'Final Boss' so I know what I am talking about

You screwed up.

Maybe, maybe not. I’ve since acquired Hill and still would very comfortably start Adams, Allen, and Hill over Jefferson for the remainder of this year. In fact, if I started Jefferson this week I would have lost, but since I started Hill I won. You manage your teams and I’ll manage mine.

At the time of my decision, Jefferson was not a plug and play IMO. I stand by that. Since then he’s done more and I think differently.

[skinfanjon]

To answer the question the thread title poses...

I have Jefferson on a team that is young, but still very much a contender. I will likely end up as one of the top two seeds in an extremely competitive league with a $1250 entry fee. Not trying to brag at all, just giving context. Its the best league I've ever been part of. With that in mind:

I thought about shopping him ahead of last weeks deadline and decided I would not offer him for Adams or Hopkins. I own Tyreek and AJ Brown so they weren't options. The only other ideas that even crossed my mind were Metcalf which feels completely lateral, and asking for Derrick Henry straight up. Decided against trying either of those.

So to answer the question:

Yes.

The only guys who even live in his neighborhood are Tyreek, Adams, Hopkins, Metcalf, and AJ Brown.

I'll take Jefferson.

[murphysxm]

The only guys who even live in his neighborhood are Tyreek, Adams, Hopkins, Metcalf, and AJ Brown.

I'll take Jefferson.

So no Michael Thomas?

[Patsfan86]

Jefferson looks like a total stud and is amazing but ranking WRs right now is so pointless, there are just so many and you can make a case week in and week out who the top guy is. There is not 1 guy id rather have that any other guy right now. There are however tiers of guys id rather have

Tier 1 DK Ajb Nuk Adams Hill Mt Jefferson
Tier 2 Ridley, Tee higgins, DJ moore, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Ceedee Lamb, this list could go on forever and ever.

Jefferson though is the closest thing we have seen to prime OBJ and he is exciting. Definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do in the future.

[Cameron Giles]

Jefferson looks like a total stud and is amazing but ranking WRs right now is so pointless, there are just so many and you can make a case week in and week out who the top guy is. There is not 1 guy id rather have that any other guy right now. There are however tiers of guys id rather have

Tier 1 DK Ajb Nuk Adams Hill Mt Jefferson
Tier 2 Ridley, Tee higgins, DJ moore, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Ceedee Lamb, this list could go on forever and ever.

Jefferson though is the closest thing we have seen to prime OBJ and he is exciting. Definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do in the future.

I agree with this. There's WRs I prefer having, but if I'm on board in a standard 1QB, PPR startup, and a WR is the BPA...I'm trading back. WR is perhaps more loaded than its ever been and I don't think there's really a single WR who gives you an advantage in winning or building teams regardless of age

Proven WRs: Hopkins, Thomas, Adams, Evans, Robinson, Hill, Diggs, Allen, Julio, Cooper, Thielen, Lockett
Up and Comers: Metcalf, Ridley, D. Johnson, Godwin, Golladay, McLaurin, Moore
Rookies: Jefferson, Lamb, Claypool, Jeudy, Higgins, Pittman, Mims

And I'm probably leaving out a ton of names. Not to mention, there's another good WR class coming in (though not as good as 2020) with Chase, Waddle, Smith, Moore...just to name a few.

Like I said earlier, being the WR1 in dynasty is a trivial thing at this point and I personally wouldn't pay up to have whoever that WR is with so many options available. Jefferson is an absolute stud though.

[skinfanjon]

The only guys who even live in his neighborhood are Tyreek, Adams, Hopkins, Metcalf, and AJ Brown.

I'll take Jefferson.

So no Michael Thomas?

Intentionally omitted. Between him turning into a bit of a headcase and the looming reality of life without Brees/with Taysom, he's not in that tier at all for me. I wouldn't give Jefferson for Thomas + 1st round pick.

[Sriracha]

The only guys who even live in his neighborhood are Tyreek, Adams, Hopkins, Metcalf, and AJ Brown.

I'll take Jefferson.

So no Michael Thomas?

Intentionally omitted. Between him turning into a bit of a headcase and the looming reality of life without Brees/with Taysom, he's not in that tier at all for me. I wouldn't give Jefferson for Thomas + 1st round pick.

Strong words.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.. the youth tax is just too highly weighted in Dynasty football.

I love, love, love Jefferson's talent. But I just don't see the WR1 ceiling given his team's offensive philosophy + lack of elite QB play; and both of those factors are unlikely to change in the next few years.

[bjd5211]

So no Michael Thomas?

Intentionally omitted. Between him turning into a bit of a headcase and the looming reality of life without Brees/with Taysom, he's not in that tier at all for me. I wouldn't give Jefferson for Thomas + 1st round pick.

Strong words.

I'd take that in a heartbeat.. the youth tax is just too highly weighted in Dynasty football.

I love, love, love Jefferson's talent. But I just don't see the WR1 ceiling given his team's offensive philosophy + lack of elite QB play; and both of those factors are unlikely to change in the next few years.

And MT has elite QB play? Brees is out and good chance he doesn't return this year for fantasy, and he's surely gone next year. I'll take Jefferson easily over MT with the looming QB issues, the age difference and all the "where there's smoke there's fire" rumblings of trade rumors and off-field drama.

[Friction]

Did not realize his value was so high, I may have to shop him some. Grabbed him in most of my leagues, right after the Jeudy and Lamb tier. The good thing is that MN has an awful defense, so that will help negate the stubbornness of Mike "get off my lawn' Zimmer. There will be plenty of 4/33 type weeks like with any WR, but with that sieve of a defense, the offensive philosophy of ramming it into the line 30+ times, will be hard to stick to.