Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

[MFundercover]

Evans is the WR 16 in my .5 ppr league. Anyone selling him as a WR3 is selling low.

[Kmani6]

He's not saying that any of Golladay/Evans/Landry belongs in the same tier as those guys you mentioned value-wise.

He was responding to the previous comment and saying that you can add these three to the MT/Adams/Hill/Nuk group of guys whose dynasty value will not be on par with their production because of their age.

This is currently the case with Julio. As you reach that 27/28 age, while arguably a peak in production for many WR's, dynasty value doesn't seem to align.

winner.

"Their value won't match their production because of their age" makes more sense when they're actually producing. Right now all of those guys are actually ranked higher in rankings value than they're ranked in fantasy points scored. Their lack of production already dictates that their value should be lower.

For instance Mike Evans is WR17 in dynasty rankings and WR27 in PPG.

They've got to actually start producing again before we can worry about their production not matching their value, and as the aforementioned Dez/Demaryius/AJG showed us just because they produced before doesn't mean they'll be able to again in their late 20's.

Not that Golladay was ever that much of a producer to begin with. Dude has a CAREER HIGH of 15.5ppg which was good for WR14 in ppg in a down season at the position but wouldn't even crack the top 20 this year. And that's his CAREER HIGH. Yet he's still ranked WR15.

These guys have a lot of issues driving down their ranking beyond age.

Here’s my quote once again, “ whose dynasty value will not be on par with their production because of their age.”

You seemed to have misunderstood my use of the word “will,” as used to indicate the future tense. Nobody is saying that their current value right now has to do with their age. In fact, I also specifically said “this is currently the case with Julio,” clearly implying it’s not the case with those other guys, *currently*.

However, he is making the point that in a few years their value will not be on par with their production due to their age. That is a true statement.

[Kmani6]

Also, comparing players value to their in-season rankings makes little to no sense, considering how much these rankings fluctuate until the end of each season. While someone like Evans is falling on those rankings, other players are not rising as fast as they should, either. If you were to actually try to trade Evans right now; however, you’ll notice that his value is depressed.

Here are some examples of why tying value to in season rankings is flat out terrible. These are from fantasy pros dynasty rankings, which also have Mike Evans #17, currently.

These same rankings have Justin Jefferson WR #16. Is he the same value in dynasty as Mike Evans?

They also have tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, and Juju WR #18,19,20. Are they of less value than Mike Evans?

They have Tyler Lockett at WR #25, Jerry Jeudy at WR #27, Chase Claypool at WR #33, Diontae Johnson at WR #36, and Brandon Aiyuk at WR #37.

I think you get the point.

[Cameron Giles]

DK Metcalf is 4th in PPR scoring coming off a bad game and Justin Jefferson is 18th coming off a great one.

The problem is that JJ is stuck with Kirk for at least 2 more years and after that ??? Can't knock DK for being tied to Russ, and that's one of the big reasons why his value is so high. Same thing with Adams, and Tyreek. They are all great WR's but their production is tied to great QB play as well. Last year Diggs had 3 straight ~150 yard games and then got an average of like 5 targets during the following 3 games. Unfortunately, when talking about WR #1 for dynasty, the situation matters.

Despite popular belief, Cousins has actually been good for Jefferson. Hell, Cousins historically has supported a number of fantasy-relevant WRs, even though he's also had his blunders sandwiched in.

Catchable Target Rate:

Shenault: 84.6%
Jefferson: 83.3%
Higgins: 82%
Reagor: 81%
Pittman: 78.6%

League Average: 78.1%

Lamb: 77.3%
Claypool: 75.4%
Aiyuk: 68.4%
Ruggs: 68%
Jeudy: 65.2%
Mims: 61.1%

[Jigga94]

Ruggs, Jeudy and Mims at the bottom. Looks at roster. Hmm

[Kmani6]

DK Metcalf is 4th in PPR scoring coming off a bad game and Justin Jefferson is 18th coming off a great one.

The problem is that JJ is stuck with Kirk for at least 2 more years and after that ??? Can't knock DK for being tied to Russ, and that's one of the big reasons why his value is so high. Same thing with Adams, and Tyreek. They are all great WR's but their production is tied to great QB play as well. Last year Diggs had 3 straight ~150 yard games and then got an average of like 5 targets during the following 3 games. Unfortunately, when talking about WR #1 for dynasty, the situation matters.

Despite popular belief, Cousins has actually been good for Jefferson. Hell, Cousins historically has supported a number of fantasy-relevant WRs, even though he's also had his blunders sandwiched in.

Catchable Target Rate:

Shenault: 84.6%
Jefferson: 83.3%
Higgins: 82%
Reagor: 81%
Pittman: 78.6%

League Average: 78.1%

Lamb: 77.3%
Claypool: 75.4%
Aiyuk: 68.4%
Ruggs: 68%
Jeudy: 65.2%
Mims: 61.1%

Actually, he hasn't been very good for Jefferson. This is a single, cherry-picked advanced stat that doesn't give you the entire context of the situation really. In reality, Jefferson has been good for Cousins and is just putting him in a position to make easy throws.

The Vikings are ranked 32nd in pass plays per game (they don't trust him to run this offense at all!!), while his supporting cast efficiency is 2nd in the NFL!!! This is a very suggesting discrepancy that isn't just a coincidence. Kirk Cousins is also 18th in pass yards per game.

The other thing about Catchable Target Rate is that it doesn't tell you how many targets you are looking at, which is arguably far more important for fantasy success. The reality is that Jefferson was supposed to come in and fill the Diggs role, which he has done extremely well. He is on pace for 96 targets, which is the exact same number as Diggs had last year. Now that Diggs is on the Bills, we see what has happened with him from a production standpoint, and how his old situation was quite limiting.

I definitely agree that Kirk can support fantasy-relevant WR's. However, when comparing guys for the dynasty overall #1 WR, even if all else is equal, you're going with the guy that has the better QB (Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes) 9 times out of 10.

[murphysxm]

Ths thread makes me smile. I have made a living buyng "old" WR's cheap and riding them. Please kep up the narrative

[Mjvb5]

Ths thread makes me smile. I have made a living buyng "old" WR's cheap and riding them. Please kep up the narrative

I'm curious has it been off buying the top end older guys (Julio and the soon to be Hopkins, MT, Adams etc). Or the more mid tier guys like Lockett last year, Landry, Woods, and Thielen as I feel those mid tier guys are where you can really get some nice value at WR for 2nds and late 1s a lot of the time

[Cameron Giles]

DK Metcalf is 4th in PPR scoring coming off a bad game and Justin Jefferson is 18th coming off a great one.

The problem is that JJ is stuck with Kirk for at least 2 more years and after that ??? Can't knock DK for being tied to Russ, and that's one of the big reasons why his value is so high. Same thing with Adams, and Tyreek. They are all great WR's but their production is tied to great QB play as well. Last year Diggs had 3 straight ~150 yard games and then got an average of like 5 targets during the following 3 games. Unfortunately, when talking about WR #1 for dynasty, the situation matters.

Despite popular belief, Cousins has actually been good for Jefferson. Hell, Cousins historically has supported a number of fantasy-relevant WRs, even though he's also had his blunders sandwiched in.

Catchable Target Rate:

Shenault: 84.6%
Jefferson: 83.3%
Higgins: 82%
Reagor: 81%
Pittman: 78.6%

League Average: 78.1%

Lamb: 77.3%
Claypool: 75.4%
Aiyuk: 68.4%
Ruggs: 68%
Jeudy: 65.2%
Mims: 61.1%

Actually, he hasn't been very good for Jefferson. This is a single, cherry-picked advanced stat that doesn't give you the entire context of the situation really. In reality, Jefferson has been good for Cousins and is just putting him in a position to make easy throws.

The Vikings are ranked 32nd in pass plays per game (they don't trust him to run this offense at all!!), while his supporting cast efficiency is 2nd in the NFL!!! This is a very suggesting discrepancy that isn't just a coincidence. Kirk Cousins is also 18th in pass yards per game.

The other thing about Catchable Target Rate is that it doesn't tell you how many targets you are looking at, which is arguably far more important for fantasy success. The reality is that Jefferson was supposed to come in and fill the Diggs role, which he has done extremely well. He is on pace for 96 targets, which is the exact same number as Diggs had last year. Now that Diggs is on the Bills, we see what has happened with him from a production standpoint, and how his old situation was quite limiting.

I definitely agree that Kirk can support fantasy-relevant WR's. However, when comparing guys for the dynasty overall #1 WR, even if all else is equal, you're going with the guy that has the better QB (Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes) 9 times out of 10.

Most of this is centered around the fact that Zimmer wants Kubiak to run a play action heavy offense, with low pass attempts, a lot of ground game, and big plays. Cousins is not nearly as bad as Zimmer thinks he is; he's just bad for what Zimmer wants to do as a game manager.

Catchable target rate isn't everything, just like no stat is by itself, but it's very telling that every rookie WR who's getting a respectable amount of targets and a high catchable pass rate is producing. Jefferson is helping Cousins and Cousins is getting him the ball at a really good clip. Claypool, Lamb, and Higgins as well are doing really well and the stat is just a peak into why.

All it shows you is that his QB outlook could certainly be worse. Ask Jeudy.

[CGW]

Ths thread makes me smile. I have made a living buyng "old" WR's cheap and riding them. Please kep up the narrative

Sssshhhhhh.

[Kmani6]

Despite popular belief, Cousins has actually been good for Jefferson. Hell, Cousins historically has supported a number of fantasy-relevant WRs, even though he's also had his blunders sandwiched in.

Catchable Target Rate:

Shenault: 84.6%
Jefferson: 83.3%
Higgins: 82%
Reagor: 81%
Pittman: 78.6%

League Average: 78.1%

Lamb: 77.3%
Claypool: 75.4%
Aiyuk: 68.4%
Ruggs: 68%
Jeudy: 65.2%
Mims: 61.1%

Actually, he hasn't been very good for Jefferson. This is a single, cherry-picked advanced stat that doesn't give you the entire context of the situation really. In reality, Jefferson has been good for Cousins and is just putting him in a position to make easy throws.

The Vikings are ranked 32nd in pass plays per game (they don't trust him to run this offense at all!!), while his supporting cast efficiency is 2nd in the NFL!!! This is a very suggesting discrepancy that isn't just a coincidence. Kirk Cousins is also 18th in pass yards per game.

The other thing about Catchable Target Rate is that it doesn't tell you how many targets you are looking at, which is arguably far more important for fantasy success. The reality is that Jefferson was supposed to come in and fill the Diggs role, which he has done extremely well. He is on pace for 96 targets, which is the exact same number as Diggs had last year. Now that Diggs is on the Bills, we see what has happened with him from a production standpoint, and how his old situation was quite limiting.

I definitely agree that Kirk can support fantasy-relevant WR's. However, when comparing guys for the dynasty overall #1 WR, even if all else is equal, you're going with the guy that has the better QB (Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes) 9 times out of 10.

Most of this is centered around the fact that Zimmer wants Kubiak to run a play action heavy offense, with low pass attempts, a lot of ground game, and big plays. Cousins is not nearly as bad as Zimmer thinks he is; he's just bad for what Zimmer wants to do as a game manager.

Catchable target rate isn't everything, just like no stat is by itself, but it's very telling that every rookie WR who's getting a respectable amount of targets and a high catchable pass rate is producing. Jefferson is helping Cousins and Cousins is getting him the ball at a really good clip. Claypool, Lamb, and Higgins as well are doing really well and the stat is just a peak into why.

All it shows you is that his QB outlook could certainly be worse. Ask Jeudy.

"Claypool, Lamb, and Higgins as well are doing really well and the stat is just a peak into why."

You realize that your stat shows that Claypool, and Lamb are both below league average for catchable target rate, right? You listed the league average at 78.1%, and both Lamb and Claypool below this value, so this directly contradicts what you are saying. So no, the stat is definitely not a peak into why they are doing well.

[SaQuads_9]

Ths thread makes me smile. I have made a living buyng "old" WR's cheap and riding them. Please kep up the narrative

Bought Thielen for a late 2021 first and KA for a 2022 first and Rojo (main pieces) this offseason. They have helped carry me to a 7-3 record and second place as of now even with Barkley out and injuries to MT, Ridley, and others throughout the year. Needless to say I support this statement

[gogobradyarm]

Ths thread makes me smile. I have made a living buyng "old" WR's cheap and riding them. Please kep up the narrative

Bought Thielen for a late 2021 first and KA for a 2022 first and Rojo (main pieces) this offseason. They have helped carry me to a 7-3 record and second place as of now even with Barkley out and injuries to MT, Ridley, and others throughout the year. Needless to say I support this statement

lol. I gotta be honest, I love your alias.

[TD41]

Ths thread makes me smile. I have made a living buyng "old" WR's cheap and riding them. Please kep up the narrative

Evans is 27 I dont get the hate he gets... Thought they're supposed to fall of at 30-32 thats still plenty of mileage left

[MFundercover]

Mike Evans career ppr finishes: 13, 23, 2, 17, 9, 15, and is currently 17th. Some people are totally unreasonable about what his value actually is. Hes become untradeable un my league.