Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

[gogobradyarm]

This class has a lot of great rookie WRs and I’m not even sure Jefferson is the best in the class, but he is certainly in the discussion. I think an argument could be made for Lamb, Claypool, and Jefferson, not to mention we are just seeing Reagor and Pittman back from injuries. For me it’s too early to tell, but if I had to pick one right now I’d pick Claypool as the guy because for me he had the most upside.

It’s been a great class, and any of these guys can be all stars. That’s said, right now, Jefferson is out producing all of them.

[hoos89]

This class has a lot of great rookie WRs and I’m not even sure Jefferson is the best in the class, but he is certainly in the discussion. I think an argument could be made for Lamb, Claypool, and Jefferson, not to mention we are just seeing Reagor and Pittman back from injuries. For me it’s too early to tell, but if I had to pick one right now I’d pick Claypool as the guy because for me he had the most upside.

Higgins and Aiyuk have to be in the conversation as well. And I'm putting Jeudy ahead of Reagor or Pittman.

[Servo]

Simply put, he hasn't shown enough.

I'm not going to say that Jefferson is THE #1 but don't get it twisted...the guy is having one of the best rookie WR seasons EVER.

[murphysxm]

I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.

Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.

Disagree, but that's okay. The league has 2 bench spots and I have Adams + Allen as weekly starts at WR. The decision was Allen Robinson, or Justin Jefferson at flex. Jefferson had 5/8 single digit games and Robinson had 1/9. In a 3-round play-off bracket I'll take the guy less likely to lose me the matchup then win.

My team name is 'Final Boss' so I know what I am talking about

What kind of league has two bench spots, that's awful

[gogobradyarm]

Not to get off topic, but do y’all think this class will go down as being better than 2014 when it’s all said and done?

[gogobradyarm]

Simply put, he hasn't shown enough.

I'm not going to say that Jefferson is THE #1 but don't get it twisted...the guy is having one of the best rookie WR seasons EVER.

[Mjvb5]

Not to get off topic, but do y’all think this class will go down as being better than 2014 when it’s all said and done?

I think it'll be in the same range of outcomes
Were at the point where various 2014 guys don't have that "sexy" appeal anymore but
Evans, obj, landry, Arob, cooks, davanta adams and the almost was of Bryant
Plus role players like John brown and the slew of standard once off guys of lee, Benjamin, Jordan mathews etc

[failblazer]

He's been a real surprise. I think we knew he was good and could be a Top 20 WR, but I don't think anyone believed his upside is what it is now, which could be a Top-5 startup WR at the end of the season.

He's a smooth and explosive route runner. Love watching his games.

I don't think he's WR1 in Dynasty though, not that it matters because the position is so deep that drafting someone like Jefferson at #1 really doesn't give you any sort of advantage in winning or building a team.

But, he's been really, really good.

This is a point I had never really considered but it very true. I think if you are buying him or taking him in startups at that price then you are absolutely not getting an advantage in any given year just based on how deep WR is now. The value comes in where he is and how he is performing against opportunity cost in rookie drafts. This guy was going anywhere around 1.08-1.10 in leagues I am in and, at that cost versus paying the price for AJ Brown, Metcalf or even Terry Mclaurin, he then represents immense value. I had a total rebuild that has ended up being incredibly competitive (now 7-3) largely based on Jefferson and Higgins producing far in excess or what their draft stock would have indicated (got them at 1.11 and 1.15 rep respectively in a 16 team league and got Pittman at 1.13).

In any given year a random guy like Cole Beasley will pop up out of relative obscurity and be a potential league winner based on him outperforming his cost to acquire. Realistically, even at 21 Jefferson would have to become the best WR in human history to provide a true advantage year to year at the cost of anything like the #1 dynasty WR.

[bjd5211]

It’s been a great class, and any of these guys can be all stars. That’s said, right now, Jefferson is out producing all of them.

Technically Claypool is #1 in both total points and PPG among rookie WRs in typical PPR scoring, but it is very close between the two.

[Cameron Giles]

No one is drafting any of those guys because of their current production. People are drafting them highly because they are projecting them to continue growing into truly dominant fantasy WRs.

And I say that as someone who typically builds through RBs. But people taking a swing at these guys are taking a swing at getting a 22 year old Julio or TO or Megatron.

I'm not saying that a young, really productive WR shouldn't be in the conversation for WR1. He absolutely should be.

I'm just saying that being the WR1, even with age in dynasty, doesn't give an advantage in winning or building teams. The position is too deep. The whole "I have him on my roster for the next 10 years!!" thing is always overstated.

[gogobradyarm]

It’s been a great class, and any of these guys can be all stars. That’s said, right now, Jefferson is out producing all of them.

Technically Claypool is #1 in both total points and PPG among rookie WRs in typical PPR scoring, but it is very close between the two.

You are correct. That said, Claypool has more TDS which are generally hard to predict. PFF has Jefferson as their highest graded rookie WR all time. But thank you for the correction.

[waynesworld1234]

What kind of league has two bench spots, that's awful

Last comment on this, so we stay on topic. A great one! It's the most active league I have ever been a part of. SF, no Kicker, IDP, 2 bench, no IR, blind bidding. It's difficult and demands in-season management, so I love it.

[Vcize]

No one is drafting any of those guys because of their current production. People are drafting them highly because they are projecting them to continue growing into truly dominant fantasy WRs.

And I say that as someone who typically builds through RBs. But people taking a swing at these guys are taking a swing at getting a 22 year old Julio or TO or Megatron.

I'm not saying that a young, really productive WR shouldn't be in the conversation for WR1. He absolutely should be.

I'm just saying that being the WR1, even with age in dynasty, doesn't give an advantage in winning or building teams. The position is too deep. The whole "I have him on my roster for the next 10 years!!" thing is always overstated.

This may be the most direct preach to the choir moment ever because I 100% agree with you from a strategy perspective. In fact I feel like you are me right now, because you can find me saying the exact same thing in like 80 different threads here on DLF. I am the ultimate "there are too many good WRs, you should be focusing elsewhere" kind of guy.

That said I do still believe there is value in truly elite WRs. Those guys still do provide a big advantage. JJ making a jump to truly elite is a big jump, but him having that kind of realistic upside is exactly why I think he belongs in the top 5 dynasty WR conversation along with guys like Metcalf and AJB.

JJ is actually out-trending Randy Moss' rookie season right now. Obviously it's a big leap for him to ever start putting up those kind of numbers, but JJ putting up Moss numbers, Metcalf putting up Megatron numbers, and AJB putting up Julio numbers are the exact reason I'm interested in those guys at WR and not interested in the rest of the fluff at the position.

Maybe it's not particularly likely they turn into the next iteration of those guys, but I don't think it's much less likely than guys like Miles Sanders and Nick Chubb still being top RBs 2-3 years from now.

And that last part is kind of the problem. I have no conviction in any of the RBs right now. Outside of CMC, who himself will be coming off an injury riddled season where his production was kind of replaceable on his own team, there aren't a bevy of great options at RB. We're no longer looking at a 22 year old healthy Saquon, a 24 year old healthy Zeke, a 23 year old Kamara, etc. Those guys are hitting the age/injury issues where people start getting less interested and the next group of youngins hasn't really lived up to snuff yet.

But ultimately, I am with you, right down to the "I'm tired of hearing people say they're set for 10 years when they draft a WR" stuff. You can find that exact quote from me in one of the Mike Evans threads. I guess to be fair the original context of this thread was more about JJ's ranking versus other WRs, not overall, and that's more where I'm focused.

Overall, I agree with you and I've said before on this forum that I'd rather build around RBs and spend 6 years with 3 of them as the #1 team in the league and 3 of them as one of the worst teams in the league than build around WRs and spend 6 years as a boring #6-#7 middling borderline playoff team.

[Vcize]

It’s been a great class, and any of these guys can be all stars. That’s said, right now, Jefferson is out producing all of them.

Technically Claypool is #1 in both total points and PPG among rookie WRs in typical PPR scoring, but it is very close between the two.

You are correct. That said, Claypool has more TDS which are generally hard to predict. PFF has Jefferson as their highest graded rookie WR all time. But thank you for the correction.

Are PFF grades behind a paywall? I know they are extremely high on JJ grading him the #1 WR in the entire league 4 out of 10 weeks this year. But I only read that here is there somewhere to see those rankings historically so we can see how predictive they are? IE who did they rank #1 the most last year? And in 2018?

[Cowboysfan33]

Jefferson has been awesome, for the most part, but his situation will give you those 3-23, 2-26, 3-26 weeks. I don’t rank him as the #1 WR in dynasty, I’d go DK.