Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
gogobradyarm
Captain
Captain
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:39 am
Location: Twitter.com/DrEvilsDynasty
Contact:

Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:14 pm

I think we have enough of a sample size to say, Justin Jefferson is absolutely a stud. He is playing and winning outside, inside, and he is doing it with attention of the defense. He is 21 years old, a plus athlete, with top tier route running, and plenty of time to grow. The intangible though, is the attitude, the swagger.

I’m planting the flag, he is my dynasty WR #1. Why, or why not? We’ll keep the thread going as his career blossoms.
12 Team - PPR - 35man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE

QB: Lamar, Herbert, Wentz, Danny Dimes, Mariota
RB: Kamara, Cook, Zeke, Chubb, Mattison
WR: Adams, Hopkins, Jefferson, Gallup, Reagor, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Dante Pettis, Scotty Miller, Tim Patrick, Quez Watkins
TE: Henry, Engram, Goedert, Ertz, Parham, Ian Thomas, Josh Oliver

2021: 1.07, 1.08, 2.04, 2.10, 3.11
2022: 4x 1sts, 2x 2nds, 3rd

User avatar
Oddball456
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1017
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:35 am
Location: Chicago

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Oddball456 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm

Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.

Kmani6
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1051
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Kmani6 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm

You could make a good argument that he is WR #1 in the class, and his play/production certainly back that up. But I genuinely don't see any reasonable argument for having him as the dynasty WR #1. Simply put, he hasn't shown enough.

I think we have enough of a sample size to say, DK Metcalf is absolutely a stud. He is playing and winning outside, inside, and he is doing it with the attention of the defense. He is 22 years old, the best athlete, with *good* route running, and plenty of time to grow. The intangible though, is the attitude, the swagger.

I’m planting the flag, he is my dynasty WR #1.

This is something you can work with, though.

Edit: Also, I don't actually have him as my dynasty WR #1.
Last edited by Kmani6 on Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Dalvin Cook, Sanders, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, D. Johnson
TE: Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert

2020 Picks: 1.05, 1.06
2021 Picks: 1, 2, and 3

PR0v3
Starter
Starter
Posts: 670
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:58 pm

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby PR0v3 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm

Oddball456 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm
Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.
I feel pretty great about starting Jefferson every week.
12 Team .5 PPR - 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB 20 man rosters, 5 man taxi est. 2018
QB: Dak, Jimmy G, Trubisky, Dalton, Mullens
RB: Swift, Gibson, Taylor, Akers, Dillon, Penny, Kerryon
WR: JJeff, Aiyuk, C. Davis, Boyd, Hollywood, Mims, C. Samuel, VJeff
TE: Andrews, Gesicki
K: Myers
2021 picks: 2, 3, 4

User avatar
gogobradyarm
Captain
Captain
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:39 am
Location: Twitter.com/DrEvilsDynasty
Contact:

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:37 pm

Kmani6 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm
You could make a good argument that he is WR #1 in the class, and his play/production certainly back that up. But I genuinely don't see any reasonable argument for having him as the dynasty WR #1. Simply put, he hasn't shown enough.

I think we have enough of a sample size to say, DK Metcalf is absolutely a stud. He is playing and winning outside, inside, and he is doing it with the attention of the defense. He is 22 years old, the best athlete, with *good* route running, and plenty of time to grow. The intangible though, is the attitude, the swagger.

I’m planting the flag, he is my dynasty WR #1.

This is something you can work with, though.
How does Metcalf get a pass here? Jefferson didn’t have a full offseason, and doing more than Metcalf did his rookie year, with a lesser QB.
12 Team - PPR - 35man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE

QB: Lamar, Herbert, Wentz, Danny Dimes, Mariota
RB: Kamara, Cook, Zeke, Chubb, Mattison
WR: Adams, Hopkins, Jefferson, Gallup, Reagor, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Dante Pettis, Scotty Miller, Tim Patrick, Quez Watkins
TE: Henry, Engram, Goedert, Ertz, Parham, Ian Thomas, Josh Oliver

2021: 1.07, 1.08, 2.04, 2.10, 3.11
2022: 4x 1sts, 2x 2nds, 3rd

Mjvb5
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4082
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Mjvb5 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:37 pm

I'd probably rather have AJB and DK but I can see the case

Kmani6
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1051
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Kmani6 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:45 pm

gogobradyarm wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:37 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm
You could make a good argument that he is WR #1 in the class, and his play/production certainly back that up. But I genuinely don't see any reasonable argument for having him as the dynasty WR #1. Simply put, he hasn't shown enough.

I think we have enough of a sample size to say, DK Metcalf is absolutely a stud. He is playing and winning outside, inside, and he is doing it with the attention of the defense. He is 22 years old, the best athlete, with *good* route running, and plenty of time to grow. The intangible though, is the attitude, the swagger.

I’m planting the flag, he is my dynasty WR #1.

This is something you can work with, though.
How does Metcalf get a pass here? Jefferson didn’t have a full offseason, and doing more than Metcalf did his rookie year, with a lesser QB.
So now we should judge all the current WR's based on their rookie years and compare those to Jefferson's? You are trying to make the case for the *current overall dynasty WR #1 *. Also, for the foreseeable future, Metcalf's QB is Wilson, and Jefferson's is Kirk, so yes QB situation does in fact matter.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Dalvin Cook, Sanders, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, D. Johnson
TE: Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert

2020 Picks: 1.05, 1.06
2021 Picks: 1, 2, and 3

User avatar
gogobradyarm
Captain
Captain
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2015 8:39 am
Location: Twitter.com/DrEvilsDynasty
Contact:

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby gogobradyarm » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:56 pm

Kmani6 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:45 pm
gogobradyarm wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:37 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm
You could make a good argument that he is WR #1 in the class, and his play/production certainly back that up. But I genuinely don't see any reasonable argument for having him as the dynasty WR #1. Simply put, he hasn't shown enough.

I think we have enough of a sample size to say, DK Metcalf is absolutely a stud. He is playing and winning outside, inside, and he is doing it with the attention of the defense. He is 22 years old, the best athlete, with *good* route running, and plenty of time to grow. The intangible though, is the attitude, the swagger.

I’m planting the flag, he is my dynasty WR #1.

This is something you can work with, though.
How does Metcalf get a pass here? Jefferson didn’t have a full offseason, and doing more than Metcalf did his rookie year, with a lesser QB.
So now we should judge all the current WR's based on their rookie years and compare those to Jefferson's? You are trying to make the case for the *current overall dynasty WR #1 *. Also, for the foreseeable future, Metcalf's QB is Wilson, and Jefferson's is Kirk, so yes QB situation does in fact matter.
There is a statistical correlation between rookie year success and long term success. As a 21 year old rookie, playing all WR positions, he is DOMINANT. He is not Juju playing just the slot, or Metcalf running just go routes on one side of the field his rookie year. Jefferson is by all measures, playing better than either to this point in their rookie seasons, and you can’t argue that. You are yet to make much of any argument, but I guess I have to pay the troll toll....
12 Team - PPR - 35man (2 IR) - 6pt PPTD- 1 QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 Flex - 1 TE

QB: Lamar, Herbert, Wentz, Danny Dimes, Mariota
RB: Kamara, Cook, Zeke, Chubb, Mattison
WR: Adams, Hopkins, Jefferson, Gallup, Reagor, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Dante Pettis, Scotty Miller, Tim Patrick, Quez Watkins
TE: Henry, Engram, Goedert, Ertz, Parham, Ian Thomas, Josh Oliver

2021: 1.07, 1.08, 2.04, 2.10, 3.11
2022: 4x 1sts, 2x 2nds, 3rd

Kmani6
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1051
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Kmani6 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:16 pm

gogobradyarm wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:56 pm
Kmani6 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:45 pm
gogobradyarm wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:37 pm


How does Metcalf get a pass here? Jefferson didn’t have a full offseason, and doing more than Metcalf did his rookie year, with a lesser QB.
So now we should judge all the current WR's based on their rookie years and compare those to Jefferson's? You are trying to make the case for the *current overall dynasty WR #1 *. Also, for the foreseeable future, Metcalf's QB is Wilson, and Jefferson's is Kirk, so yes QB situation does in fact matter.
There is a statistical correlation between rookie year success and long term success. As a 21 year old rookie, playing all WR positions, he is DOMINANT. He is not Juju playing just the slot, or Metcalf running just go routes on one side of the field his rookie year. Jefferson is by all measures, playing better than either to this point in their rookie seasons, and you can’t argue that. You are yet to make much of any argument, but I guess I have to pay the troll toll....
Who said I was arguing if Jefferson is playing better than metcalf/juju to this point in their rookie seasons? So now you are moving the goal post to some arbitrary claim and arguing something completely different than your original post.

Your entire argument here is that Jefferson is a “DOMINANT” 21 year old rookie, and that there is a statistical correlation between rookie year and long term success. So what?

Nobody is disagreeing with that, but it doesn’t give any merit to why Jefferson is the current dynasty WR #1.

Also, If you read more carefully you’d see I clearly said that simply put he hasn’t shown/produced enough.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Dalvin Cook, Sanders, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, D. Johnson
TE: Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert

2020 Picks: 1.05, 1.06
2021 Picks: 1, 2, and 3

Kmani6
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1051
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 pm
Location: Princeton, NJ

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Kmani6 » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:18 pm

I think a much more substantial discussion would be projecting the WR 1 out of this class for the next few years, with what we’ve seen so far. Here there’s actually a good case for Justin Jefferson, but also for guys like Lamb, Claypool, Higgins, Aiyuk, Jeudy, etc.
Dynasty Team 1:

10 Man, Full PPR, .2 PPC, Double Flex

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Saquon Barkley , Dalvin Cook, Sanders, Dobbins, Gibson, CEH
WR: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Mclaurin, D. Johnson
TE: Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert

2020 Picks: 1.05, 1.06
2021 Picks: 1, 2, and 3

TD41
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 178
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:54 pm

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby TD41 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 12:48 am

Oddball456 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm
Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.
Everything that this man said... Diggs had 90 something targets his last year as a Vike, Jefferson's 16 game pace puts him at 88. Thielen still on pace for the 1-teens but he needed 140+ to hit his WR1 years. Barring Zimmer going away or some kind of historic efficiency I'm just not as high on the kid.

Diggs has already amassed 102 targets over 10 games in Buffalo and will more than likely top out at 165-180 targets and a WR1 season.

I'm opportunity over effiency more times than not.

All this being said Jefferson(and Josh Jacobs) have made me question my biases when it comes to 3-star prospects that flew under my personal radar.

waynesworld1234
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 492
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2011 2:16 pm

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby waynesworld1234 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:45 am

PR0v3 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm
Oddball456 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm
Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.
I feel pretty great about starting Jefferson every week.
I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.

bjd5211
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4824
Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 11:50 am

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby bjd5211 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:19 am

waynesworld1234 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:45 am
PR0v3 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm
Oddball456 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:29 pm
Top Rookie? For sure in the conversation. But he is on the Vikings, who held back Diggs for years. Can't be the dynasty #1 WR if you don't feel good putting them into your line up every week.
I feel pretty great about starting Jefferson every week.
I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.
Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.
Last edited by bjd5211 on Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

Cameron Giles
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 10405
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2014 6:06 pm

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby Cameron Giles » Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:24 am

He's been a real surprise. I think we knew he was good and could be a Top 20 WR, but I don't think anyone believed his upside is what it is now, which could be a Top-5 startup WR at the end of the season.

He's a smooth and explosive route runner. Love watching his games.

I don't think he's WR1 in Dynasty though, not that it matters because the position is so deep that drafting someone like Jefferson at #1 really doesn't give you any sort of advantage in winning or building a team.

But, he's been really, really good.

waynesworld1234
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 492
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2011 2:16 pm

Re: Justin Jefferson #1 Dynasty WR?

Postby waynesworld1234 » Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:46 am

bjd5211 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 6:19 am
waynesworld1234 wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:45 am
PR0v3 wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:30 pm


I feel pretty great about starting Jefferson every week.
I just dropped him last night in an auction redraft because I didn’t feel great about starting him every week. Prior to last week he had ~2 30+ point games and about 5 single digit games. I’d rather have someone with double digit floor starting every week.
Well you screwed up. Outside of MT last year, there is no such thing as a WR with a single digit floor, the position is too naturally volatile, even guys like Adams, Nuk, Hill have single digit performances this year.
Disagree, but that's okay. The league has 2 bench spots and I have Adams + Allen as weekly starts at WR. The decision was Allen Robinson, or Justin Jefferson at flex. Jefferson had 5/8 single digit games and Robinson had 1/9. In a 3-round play-off bracket I'll take the guy less likely to lose me the matchup then win.

My team name is 'Final Boss' so I know what I am talking about ;)


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bronco Billy, dlf_mikeh and 5 guests