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2020 value changes

Posted: Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:56 pm
by Pullo Vision
When comparing value before this season to after this season's Super Bowl (in case it gets delayed), what players do you think will see the biggest value changes (up or down) due to this season? For reference-
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=196566
http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

Compared to September ADP-
Zeke- recency bias will push him down after struggling behind this line; questions about when Dak will return (and if he'll be in Dallas in 2021) will linger
J Taylor- no way he approaches as the 9th RB

Others that will prove to be too high from that September ADP- DJM, Evans, Beckham, Marquise Brown, Engram, Hilton, Higbee
Too low- Keenan Allen (24th WR), Dak, Fuller, Jonnu, Claypool, D Harris, D Henderson, Robby A, JRob

(and for the sceptics out there, I have more guys on that too high list than the too low one)

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:16 am
by nathanq42
Literally anyone on my team is bound to disappoint.
Evans
Obj
Dj Moore
Jacobs
CEH
(Both back have been solid but I was expecting more for each)
Godwin (injuries but still saddening)

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:49 pm
by Patsfan86
DK and AJB are going to climb into the top 10, maybe top 5 Wrs.

Zeke is going to fall hard, probably harder then Barkley. Jacobs is also going to fall.

I think we could see Swift jump the other Rookie RBs in Adp

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:00 pm
by Sriracha
Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:49 pm
DK and AJB are going to climb into the top 10, maybe top 5 Wrs.

Zeke is going to fall hard, probably harder then Barkley. Jacobs is also going to fall.

I think we could see Swift jump the other Rookie RBs in Adp
They're definitely top 5 WRs, imo.

Youth + producing at an elite level.

I will be there to catch Barkley if he falls :thumbup:

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:11 pm
by Vcize
Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:49 pm
DK and AJB are going to climb into the top 10, maybe top 5 Wrs.

Zeke is going to fall hard, probably harder then Barkley. Jacobs is also going to fall.

I think we could see Swift jump the other Rookie RBs in Adp
I think they are already arguably the top 2 dynasty WRs, and I expect to see them drafted as such in startup drafts next offseason.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:13 pm
by TD41
My boy Mixon is gonna have to get behind another class of RBs barring an amazing 2nd half.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:23 pm
by Sriracha
TD41 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:13 pm
My boy Mixon is gonna have to get behind another class of RBs barring an amazing 2nd half.
Weak RB class. Mixon is the undisputed 3 down back for an ascending offense. Likely see's a value jump for prescient drafters.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:51 pm
by TD41
Sriracha wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:23 pm
TD41 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:13 pm
My boy Mixon is gonna have to get behind another class of RBs barring an amazing 2nd half.
Weak RB class. Mixon is the undisputed 3 down back for an ascending offense. Likely see's a value jump for prescient drafters.
I think you're completely right that's how it should be seen but I think the fact his ADP was likely too high the last 2 years might hurt his value with some owners.

I own him in every league I'm in... Offers aren't pouring in not that I'd sell.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:15 pm
by jordanzs
Vcize wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:11 pm
Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:49 pm
DK and AJB are going to climb into the top 10, maybe top 5 Wrs.

Zeke is going to fall hard, probably harder then Barkley. Jacobs is also going to fall.

I think we could see Swift jump the other Rookie RBs in Adp
I think they are already arguably the top 2 dynasty WRs, and I expect to see them drafted as such in startup drafts next offseason.
B..B..Buuuuuuut.....2019 was a weak draft class with no surefire studs. How can this be?

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:33 pm
by jenkins.math
QB: Lamar will fall to around 5 and Herbert will be top 10.

RB: Hard to see too many falling far because that also means you have to put someone ahead. I think Kamara probably ends up at RB2 and maybe even pushes for RB1. James Robinson will be interesting and probably has the most to gain/lose in the offseason. If Zeke continues to look bad I think he will end up out of the top 5.

WR: Pretty well covered above. The most movement in this grouping. Down will be OBJ, Juju, Evans, DJM, Hollywood, Gallup,
Up: AJB, DK, Keenan, Terry McLaurin, a bunch of the rookies, and I think Tyler Boyd gets a jump as well.

TE: After Kittle and Kelce, does it really even matter?

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:34 pm
by Sriracha
jordanzs wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:15 pm
Vcize wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:11 pm
Patsfan86 wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 1:49 pm
DK and AJB are going to climb into the top 10, maybe top 5 Wrs.

Zeke is going to fall hard, probably harder then Barkley. Jacobs is also going to fall.

I think we could see Swift jump the other Rookie RBs in Adp
I think they are already arguably the top 2 dynasty WRs, and I expect to see them drafted as such in startup drafts next offseason.
B..B..Buuuuuuut.....2019 was a weak draft class with no surefireq studs. How can this be?
Come on bro... even the NFL let them drop to the 2nd round. They had alpha profiles, but they weren’t a sure thing.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:01 am
by The GM
I am personally offended that Diggs is missing from these risers. Clearly a WR1 in a good situation and an even weaker division with the fall of the Patriots.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:23 pm
by TD41
The GM wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:01 am
I am personally offended that Diggs is missing from these risers. Clearly a WR1 in a good situation and an even weaker division with the fall of the Patriots.
He slipped my mind...

We could probably l put Devante Parker down where he used to be as well.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:40 pm
by Vcize
The GM wrote:
Tue Nov 10, 2020 7:01 am
I am personally offended that Diggs is missing from these risers. Clearly a WR1 in a good situation and an even weaker division with the fall of the Patriots.
I think the fear with Diggs is that a lot of people have been burned by these stretch runs of great play from Diggs before. In the past he's always followed it up with some nagging injury that makes him play horribly the rest of the year.

If he can stay healthy this year for all 16 games he should see a nice boost. He's currently on pace for 112 catches and 1450 yards.

Re: 2020 value changes

Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:00 pm
by M-Dub
jenkins.math wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:33 pm
QB: Lamar will fall to around 5 and Herbert will be top 10.
Agree on Herbert, but that seems a little reactionary for Lamar. He hasn’t even turned 24 yet. Who do you see ranked above him? Mahomes, of course, and probably Kyler too at this point, but after that it gets sketchy. Watson maybe? Russ is playing lights out, but he’ll be 32 in a couple weeks. Dak will be 28 and coming off of a gruesome injury that could affect his mobility. Burrow has looked good, but I wouldn’t put him close to Lamar yet. And I’m going down with the #neverJoshAllen ship. If anyone wants to take him before Lamar, have at it. I just don’t see him dropping lower than 3rd, maybe 4th at worst. Any more than that and he’d be a steal.