Ranking the 2020 rookie rbs for 2021

[jcc6fd]

Well there isn’t really a question that he’s better than Damien. Damien has never put up production close to what CEH has done.

I agree that CEH likely won’t be a traditional bell cow, which is why I was critical of his increased startup value based solely on Damien’s opt out. It has nothing to do with Reid or CEH not being good, and everything to do with what CEH is and what just can and can’t do as a RB.

Bell coming in is a luxury for a team trying to repeat its super bowl victory. There’s no reason not to get him. Plus it was very apparent they had absolutely no depth at a position where depth is necessary. They should use Bell and CEH will lose touches this year.

This is however a thread about where we presume they’ll be next year. I don’t know how you can say he hasn’t been good outside those two games. Look at his receiving numbers in games with low rushing totals. He can do anything out of the backfield, but he’d likely benefit from not having to absorb all of the tough short yardage carries. Watching the games it’s easy to see how good he’s been, and I’ve watched all of them.

My argument here is that people are counting on Dobbins and whoever else to do things they haven’t done to be as good as CEH has already been and more. It could happen, but I don’t understand the widespread belief that others will be ahead of him.

My theory is recency bias based on his week 8 outburst. It was a good game, and I’m ready to see more of him, but it’s just objectively premature to crown him the best back of this class based on that game. He had 25 carries in 6 games and okay/not great receiving involvement. Tack on that Baltimore has clearly signaled their preference for a backfield committee. How is Dobbins future projected role better than CEH’s? It looks far worse from what we know about the system. The Dobbins arguments just fall flat for me at this point. Everyone is excited about week 8 and the narrative all along was we’d have to wait, so any outburst is a huge success for him while anything less than elite is a mark against CEH.

[Krypto_King]

what's he been over the last 2 weeks?

I didn't realize dynasty rankings were based on only 2 weeks worth of data....

I didn't know dynasty rankings were based on outdated data. how many weeks are left in the season? 10 weeks might change some minds.... enough to push him to rookie rb3 at least

[jenkins.math]

what's he been over the last 2 weeks?

I didn't realize dynasty rankings were based on only 2 weeks worth of data....

I didn't know dynasty rankings were based on outdated data. how many weeks are left in the season? 10 weeks might change some minds.... enough to push him to rookie rb3 at least

Using current season statistics is now considered outdated

Some of the mental gymnastics people are doing in this thread to justify their position is quite impressive.

[CGW]

Well there isn’t really a question that he’s better than Damien. Damien has never put up production close to what CEH has done.

I agree that CEH likely won’t be a traditional bell cow, which is why I was critical of his increased startup value based solely on Damien’s opt out. It has nothing to do with Reid or CEH not being good, and everything to do with what CEH is and what just can and can’t do as a RB.

Bell coming in is a luxury for a team trying to repeat its super bowl victory. There’s no reason not to get him. Plus it was very apparent they had absolutely no depth at a position where depth is necessary. They should use Bell and CEH will lose touches this year.

This is however a thread about where we presume they’ll be next year. I don’t know how you can say he hasn’t been good outside those two games. Look at his receiving numbers in games with low rushing totals. He can do anything out of the backfield, but he’d likely benefit from not having to absorb all of the tough short yardage carries. Watching the games it’s easy to see how good he’s been, and I’ve watched all of them.

My argument here is that people are counting on Dobbins and whoever else to do things they haven’t done to be as good as CEH has already been and more. It could happen, but I don’t understand the widespread belief that others will be ahead of him.

My theory is recency bias based on his week 8 outburst. It was a good game, and I’m ready to see more of him, but it’s just objectively premature to crown him the best back of this class based on that game. He had 25 carries in 6 games and okay/not great receiving involvement. Tack on that Baltimore has clearly signaled their preference for a backfield committee. How is Dobbins future projected role better than CEH’s? It looks far worse from what we know about the system. The Dobbins arguments just fall flat for me at this point. Everyone is excited about week 8 and the narrative all along was we’d have to wait, so any outburst is a huge success for him while anything less than elite is a mark against CEH.

He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry thus far, and when he's been called to action he's looked electric. You can doubt it all you want, but those of us who expected him to be a stud before the season still believe it's the case. Yes, he's in an RBBC but so is pretty much the whole league now. He's producing himself into the larger piece of the pie, and Ingram will be phased out. Not every back on this list was drafted to a team with zero competition for snaps and he is taking over the lead role despite 2 other capable backs competing.

[Krypto_King]

Well there isn’t really a question that he’s better than Damien. Damien has never put up production close to what CEH has done.

Clyde is RB16-20(if you want to count cmc, chubb, mostert etc) in points per game at 14.3
Williams in 16 games (5 in 2018 when named starter and 11 games in a RBBC in 2019) put up 14.7 ppg.

I'd call that close.


Also, not having Clyde #1 doesn't even mean he's disappointed I just think Dobbins will have a better fantasy outlook

[Krypto_King]

I didn't realize dynasty rankings were based on only 2 weeks worth of data....

I didn't know dynasty rankings were based on outdated data. how many weeks are left in the season? 10 weeks might change some minds.... enough to push him to rookie rb3 at least

Using current season statistics is now considered outdated

Some of the mental gymnastics people are doing in this thread to justify their position is quite impressive.

you are being willfully ignorant. There was sort of a huge shift in his situation 2 weeks ago and he's been a bad fantasy player in that small sample size. If that was all I was thinking about he'd be lower than Zack Moss. Are you still buying Cowboys in re-draft because their season long rankings are so good? No, so stop this.

[Sriracha]

He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry thus far, and when he's been called to action he's looked electric. You can doubt it all you want, but those of us who expected him to be a stud before the season still believe it's the case. Yes, he's in an RBBC but so is pretty much the whole league now. He's producing himself into the larger piece of the pie, and Ingram will be phased out. Not every back on this list was drafted to a team with zero competition for snaps and he is taking over the lead role despite 2 other capable backs competing.

Bingo.

Dobbins and Akers have had a lot of trouble getting on the field because of significantly better competition for touches than JT and CEH.. but they're both playmakers that have excelled when given the opportunity.

Now.. it might be unfair to judge these RB's solely on the rate at which they make a play -- obviously RBs that have more touches aren't as fresh throughout the game -- but Dobbins and Akers have really excelled when given opportunity; but I think it's equally as unfair to punish RBs that aren't handed the touches even if they make the best of the ones they do get.

CEH's value has been ballooned because of the "Mahomes/Reid tax", and a severe lack of rushing competition.. but that's changed in the past two weeks. He'll have to rely on efficiency to flash (barring a Bell injury) and I just don't think he has the skillset to break off massive runs at a high clip.

Given the regency bias of fantasy players, I could see his value faltering this off-season probably more than it should be. If Henderson misses time, I could see Akers value exploding in the same way that Dobbin's is.

[jcc6fd]

He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry thus far, and when he's been called to action he's looked electric. You can doubt it all you want, but those of us who expected him to be a stud before the season still believe it's the case. Yes, he's in an RBBC but so is pretty much the whole league now. He's producing himself into the larger piece of the pie, and Ingram will be phased out. Not every back on this list was drafted to a team with zero competition for snaps and he is taking over the lead role despite 2 other capable backs competing.

6.7 YPC on basically no volume. The low volume high YPC is a dangerous premise that I don’t think should have to be explained. I do agree Dobbins has looked good in limited usage. They should use him more to see what they have in him.

CEH’s situation is what made him the rookie 1.01. Damien opting out is what made him a consensus first round startup pick. I thought and still think that’s egregious, but the point remains is that situation is probably the most important factor for fantasy production at RB.

The valuation of these players going into next year will certainly and deservedly be closer than this preseason as their respective situations will have come closer. The reality is if CEH had even modest TD totals compared to his usage and production we wouldn’t be having this discussion because he’d be a top 4 back.

Go with Dobbins if that was your preseason evaluation of their talents and hope it pans out. He could be better, and a lot of people thought that pre NFL draft. I guess what I hope others understand is that the arguments against CEH on this thread have not been represented in facts. He has been very good and his situation is a very good one going forward.

[CGW]

He's averaging 6.7 yards per carry thus far, and when he's been called to action he's looked electric. You can doubt it all you want, but those of us who expected him to be a stud before the season still believe it's the case. Yes, he's in an RBBC but so is pretty much the whole league now. He's producing himself into the larger piece of the pie, and Ingram will be phased out. Not every back on this list was drafted to a team with zero competition for snaps and he is taking over the lead role despite 2 other capable backs competing.

6.7 YPC on basically no volume. The low volume high YPC is a dangerous premise that I don’t think should have to be explained. I do agree Dobbins has looked good in limited usage. They should use him more to see what they have in him.

CEH’s situation is what made him the rookie 1.01. Damien opting out is what made him a consensus first round startup pick. I thought and still think that’s egregious, but the point remains is that situation is probably the most important factor for fantasy production at RB.

The valuation of these players going into next year will certainly and deservedly be closer than this preseason as their respective situations will have come closer. The reality is if CEH had even modest TD totals compared to his usage and production we wouldn’t be having this discussion because he’d be a top 4 back.

Go with Dobbins if that was your preseason evaluation of their talents and hope it pans out. He could be better, and a lot of people thought that pre NFL draft. I guess what I hope others understand is that the arguments against CEH on this thread have not been represented in facts. He has been very good and his situation is a very good one going forward.

Sure, and I still have CEH second on my list as many others do. I agree it would be crazy to bump him way down the list after what he's done and the system he's in.

But again, dobbins and CEH are now both squarely in an RBBC whether we like it or not. That has to factor into things. I fully expect both to be top targets for 2021.

[jenkins.math]

I didn't know dynasty rankings were based on outdated data. how many weeks are left in the season? 10 weeks might change some minds.... enough to push him to rookie rb3 at least

Using current season statistics is now considered outdated

Some of the mental gymnastics people are doing in this thread to justify their position is quite impressive.

you are being willfully ignorant. There was sort of a huge shift in his situation 2 weeks ago and he's been a bad fantasy player in that small sample size. If that was all I was thinking about he'd be lower than Zack Moss. Are you still buying Cowboys in re-draft because their season long rankings are so good? No, so stop this.

Willfully ignorant? I wouldn't call bringing in a backup RB a "huge shift" but ok. Kareem Hunt had multiple games his rookie season that he was given single digit carries. Andy Reid has a history of doing this over his 20 years in the league. I guess Reid's long track record of doing this should be ignored because its outdated and only the last 2 games should be the main focus?

Its about ranking the RBs for 2021 right? Do you expect Bell to still be there? I personally do not, so Bell being around this year doesn't do much to alter my 2021 opinion of him. I mean everyone wants to rank Dobbins highly because there is an assumption he will have more touches and possibly Ingram gone. So we can make assumptions about certain players but not others because that doesn't fit your narrative? Ok got it.

I actually don't have an issue with ranking others ahead of CEH or whoever. Honestly if you have CEH, Taylor, Swift, Robinson, Dobbins as your top 5 in any order I can see a case for any of them being at 1. I take issue with the evidence being presented for some of these and the logic (or lack thereof) in stating your case for them.

[PTW32]

Now that the season is over how are we feeling about our ranking.

I was way off.

[StripesOfKC]

JT
JK
CEH/Swift
Dillon if Jones leaves
Akers
JRob if only a depth back on day 3 of the draft enters
Gibson

Moss
Dillon if Jones doesn't leave

Vaughn
Darrynton Evans (interesting stash)

[mgscott]

JT
JK
CEH/Swift
Dillon if Jones leaves
Akers
JRob if only a depth back on day 3 of the draft enters
Gibson

Moss
Dillon if Jones doesn't leave

Vaughn
Darrynton Evans (interesting stash)

I don't have any issues with this. A lot of promise out of this RB draft after a slow start to the year for most.

[blemly]

JT
JK
Swift

CEH
Akers/Gibson

Robinson (he’d move up into the next tier if no RB of consequence is taken by JAX in the draft).

Rest of em.

[Jigga94]

The 5 best RB in this draft.

Taylor, Taylor, Taylor, Taylor, and Taylor.