Ranking the 2020 rookie rbs for 2021

[kmbryant09]

D'Andre Swift that low is batshit crazy to me

Did you actually read my post in its entirety or just freak out because of a difference of opinion? I'll have all 7 of these guys within the top18 RBs in 2021 ADP. So yes, I have Swift around the 6 spot right now among 2020 rookie RBs - which puts his ADP among guys like Ekeler / Jacobs / Sanders in the #10 - #16 range next year.

Yeah, batshit crazy

[stoneghost28]

Tier 1 - Legit chance at a top12 season

1. Jonathan Taylor - There's no denying his production over the 2nd half of the season. QB is a question mark for this team, but he's locked in as the feature back behind a great O-Line and showed promise as a pass-catcher. Should flirt with top5 numbers.

2. J.K. Dobbins - I know, I know - lack of passing work and Gus Edwards stand in his way. But I believe they limit Dobbins from top5 territory, not top12 territory. He averaged 16.7 ppg after his return from COVID despite catching 1 or fewer passes in each game. That 16.7ppg is already top12 production - now imagine if Edwards leaves in Free Agency and Dobbins sees an expanded role!

3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - His production was somewhat disappointing before the injury, but let's not lose sight of the fact that he was on pace for 1,350 total yards, 45 catches and 6 TDs before his injury - while splitting time and seeing awful TD luck. KC had just 22% of their TDs on the ground (31st in the league), and CEH+Bell combined for just 6 / 13 rushing TDs for the team. He's still in line for 250+ touches in the league's best offense and could see positive TD regression.

4. Cam Akers - He turned a corner over the 2nd half of the season, and his strong playoff performance should only help. He's clearly their best back, and McVay always gets elite production out of the RB position. He could lead the league in rushing TDs next year.

Tier 2 - Outside chance at top12 production, but question marks exist

5. James Robinson - Jacksonville is likely to bring in more talent at the RB position, but that should only compliment Robinson, not threaten him. He was on pace for 1,600 total yards and 11 TDs before his injury - now imagine him in a Trevor Lawrence offense instead of Glennon/Minshew leading the way.

6. D'Andre Swift - I'll admit, I was skeptical of his ability to produce in the pros, but his game definitely translated. He may be the best pass-catcher of this group, but I do worry about his role and DET's offense in general. He couldn't command a large % of the rushing opportunity with AP on a rebuilding team, and Stafford could be gone as DET embraces a full-on rebuild.

7. Antonio Gibson - Being ranked "last" isn't necessarily a knock on Gibson, as I believe all 7 of these guys will have top18 ADP heading into next season. He showed better-than-expected ability as a rusher, but his receiving work is capped with McKissic in town and I don't see a likely path for WAS to address their QB position. If McKissic leaves, I may bump AG above Swift & Robinson as a fringe top-12 RB next season.

D'Andre Swift that low is batshit crazy to me

Me as well. Swift not getting a heavy load of the touches was a byproduct of "veteraness preference" stupidity from their horse ---- coaching staff that got ---- canned.

As long as they avoid hiring a complete dribbling moron to replace the chuckleheads of this iteration of Detroit Failure, Swift will get tons of touches moving forward.

[Sriracha]

Me as well. Swift not getting a heavy load of the touches was a byproduct of "veteraness preference" stupidity from their horse ---- coaching staff that got ---- canned.

As long as they avoid hiring a complete dribbling moron to replace the chuckleheads of this iteration of Detroit Failure, Swift will get tons of touches moving forward.

Are you sure? Wouldn't Kerryon have gotten a bigger workload if this were just "veteraness preference"?

I love me some swift and do think he emerges as the lead back in this offense.. but I'd hesitate to sweep his lack of volume under the rug based on narratives. Akers and Dobbins both got the veteran deference treatment to begin the year but eventually emerged as the clear bell cow (in the case of Akers) and the lead back (in the case of Dobbins). Henderson was playing well, probably better than AP, too. While it'd be silly to drop Swift below these other guys because of it, when we're splitting hairs with similarly talented RBs imo it's the smart to play to rank Swift below the RBs that have already seized the lead roles especially when you consider the uncertainty around Stafford going into the 2021 season.

I understand Swift's momentum was stalled by a multi game absence because of a concussion and he technically led his team in rushing a few times.. but a lot of that came after DET was playing from behind and he dominated the snaps because he was their 3rd down back.. not because they had a predetermined preference for him regardless of gamescript; which was the case with Dobbins -- who is also on a much better rushing offense and has certainty at QB.

I do agree he belongs in tier 1, though.

[kmbryant09]

For those putting Swift in my Tier 1 of likely top12 RBs next year - who are you comfortable ranking Swift over in this group (for redraft in 2021, not dynasty):

-C. McCaffrey
-S. Barkley
-D. Cook
-D. Henry
-N. Chubb
-J. Taylor

Off the top of my head, that's 6 slam dunks for top12 status next year. After that, it's a very clustered group including:
-J.K. Dobbins
-A. Jones
-M. Sanders
-J. Jacobs
-J. Robinson
-C. Edwards-Helaire
-D. Swift
-A. Ekeler
-A. Gibson
-Z. Elliot
-J. Mixon
-C. Akers

Being ranked #15 isn't a slight to anyone, as they are likely a fraction away from being ranked #8 in most sets of rankings.

[Sriracha]

I don't have an issue with him being ranked #15.. just with him being in a lower tier than JK Dobbins and CEH

[stoneghost28]

I'm just bitter I only have Akers in 5/15, and 2 of them are RSO leagues so after 3 years, a rookie option, and then I have to pay them at a franchise level. Was annoyed all offseason because I LOVED Akers, didn't love the landing spot (because of their OL and to a lesser extent, D. Henderson), but I was as confident in him making it as I was in Taylor or CEH (I had Swift and Dobbins with higher floors), but because of slotting via trades and everything else, I tended to end up in the zone where I could get any of those Big 4, and then some picks after Akers where I just got Lamb or Jeudy typically. I regret not just passing on CEH entirely since I had him behind all of them predraft, was hoping to get him at a reasonable price in the offseason, but after that performance, unless he throws up a stinker against the Packers, that's a lost cause.

[remy420]

For those putting Swift in my Tier 1 of likely top12 RBs next year - who are you comfortable ranking Swift over in this group (for redraft in 2021, not dynasty):

-C. McCaffrey
-S. Barkley
-D. Cook
-D. Henry
-N. Chubb
-J. Taylor

Off the top of my head, that's 6 slam dunks for top12 status next year. After that, it's a very clustered group including:
-J.K. Dobbins
-A. Jones
-M. Sanders
-J. Jacobs
-J. Robinson
-C. Edwards-Helaire
-D. Swift
-A. Ekeler
-A. Gibson
-Z. Elliot
-J. Mixon
-C. Akers

Being ranked #15 isn't a slight to anyone, as they are likely a fraction away from being ranked #8 in most sets of rankings.

How does Kamara not make this list?

[mgscott]

For those putting Swift in my Tier 1 of likely top12 RBs next year - who are you comfortable ranking Swift over in this group (for redraft in 2021, not dynasty):

-C. McCaffrey
-S. Barkley
-D. Cook
-D. Henry
-N. Chubb
-J. Taylor

Off the top of my head, that's 6 slam dunks for top12 status next year. After that, it's a very clustered group including:
-J.K. Dobbins
-A. Jones
-M. Sanders
-J. Jacobs
-J. Robinson
-C. Edwards-Helaire
-D. Swift
-A. Ekeler
-A. Gibson
-Z. Elliot
-J. Mixon
-C. Akers

Being ranked #15 isn't a slight to anyone, as they are likely a fraction away from being ranked #8 in most sets of rankings.

How does Kamara not make this list?

He's coming off a high volume season, in his second contract, and will likely have a new QB next year. He's done. He also just got stuffed at the one a couple times in his last game.

[CGW]

For those putting Swift in my Tier 1 of likely top12 RBs next year - who are you comfortable ranking Swift over in this group (for redraft in 2021, not dynasty):

-C. McCaffrey
-S. Barkley
-D. Cook
-D. Henry
-N. Chubb
-J. Taylor

Off the top of my head, that's 6 slam dunks for top12 status next year. After that, it's a very clustered group including:
-J.K. Dobbins
-A. Jones
-M. Sanders
-J. Jacobs
-J. Robinson
-C. Edwards-Helaire
-D. Swift
-A. Ekeler
-A. Gibson
-Z. Elliot
-J. Mixon
-C. Akers

Being ranked #15 isn't a slight to anyone, as they are likely a fraction away from being ranked #8 in most sets of rankings.

How does Kamara not make this list?

He's coming off a high volume season, in his second contract, and will likely have a new QB next year. He's done. He also just got stuffed at the one a couple times in his last game.

[Kelldon]

For those putting Swift in my Tier 1 of likely top12 RBs next year - who are you comfortable ranking Swift over in this group (for redraft in 2021, not dynasty):

-C. McCaffrey
-S. Barkley
-D. Cook
-D. Henry
-N. Chubb
-J. Taylor

Off the top of my head, that's 6 slam dunks for top12 status next year. After that, it's a very clustered group including:
-J.K. Dobbins
-A. Jones
-M. Sanders
-J. Jacobs
-J. Robinson
-C. Edwards-Helaire
-D. Swift
-A. Ekeler
-A. Gibson
-Z. Elliot
-J. Mixon
-C. Akers

Being ranked #15 isn't a slight to anyone, as they are likely a fraction away from being ranked #8 in most sets of rankings.

How does Kamara not make this list?

He's coming off a high volume season, in his second contract, and will likely have a new QB next year. He's done. He also just got stuffed at the one a couple times in his last game.

With that thinking then everyone should trade Henry for any 2nd round pick because his career is over. He had a monster workload and just completely shutdown by Ravens(40yds, 2.2average).

[stoneghost28]

Me as well. Swift not getting a heavy load of the touches was a byproduct of "veteraness preference" stupidity from their horse ---- coaching staff that got ---- canned.

As long as they avoid hiring a complete dribbling moron to replace the chuckleheads of this iteration of Detroit Failure, Swift will get tons of touches moving forward.

Are you sure? Wouldn't Kerryon have gotten a bigger workload if this were just "veteraness preference"?

I love me some swift and do think he emerges as the lead back in this offense.. but I'd hesitate to sweep his lack of volume under the rug based on narratives. Akers and Dobbins both got the veteran deference treatment to begin the year but eventually emerged as the clear bell cow (in the case of Akers) and the lead back (in the case of Dobbins). Henderson was playing well, probably better than AP, too. While it'd be silly to drop Swift below these other guys because of it, when we're splitting hairs with similarly talented RBs imo it's the smart to play to rank Swift below the RBs that have already seized the lead roles especially when you consider the uncertainty around Stafford going into the 2021 season.

I understand Swift's momentum was stalled by a multi game absence because of a concussion and he technically led his team in rushing a few times.. but a lot of that came after DET was playing from behind and he dominated the snaps because he was their 3rd down back.. not because they had a predetermined preference for him regardless of gamescript; which was the case with Dobbins -- who is also on a much better rushing offense and has certainty at QB.

I do agree he belongs in tier 1, though.

I very much doubt it, Kerryon has had an injury riddled career, and AP carries that "Iron Man" tag at this point. If things were logical, and rational, yeah, you'd be right, but how much logic do we see eschewed on a weekly basis by these guys? Plenty.

I have no problem falling on my sword w/Swift, if I'm wrong on that call, I'll gladly eat it. Sometimes you just miss, and I can live w/being wrong with Swift, it's decisions like taking CEH at 1.02 in a few leagues, that I'm truly bitter about (although let it be said, just as I expect Swift to get the gig in '21, I also expect CEH to take a hold of the gig next year (even if the Chiefs give their guy fewer carries than the others end up getting as the Running Back 1 in their offense). We'll see how it plays out, but in terms of talent, I'd have Swift inside my top 10 overall right now, it's just the dumpster fire issues inside Detroit which freak me out. Though in truth, the only RB's in good situations right now are Dobbins and CEH and even they have their issues:

Taylor: No QB if Rivers retires.

Dobbins: Lamar doesn't throw to RB's, and Edwards is an RFA they could end up bringing back.

Swift: No QB if Stafford leaves, new coach, new GM, garbage team since Leave it Beaver ended it's original run, and Buddy Holly died in a plane crash.

Akers: Got capped out, had to let their OL fall apart, they don't really have a legit starting QB, their starter is below league average at best.

Gibson: The OL scored well by PFF standards in run blocking but is exceptionally weak in pedigree, no QB in house and no hope of landing one unless via trade, offense is basically bereft of talent beyond him and McLaurin and perhaps breakout TE Logan Thomas (who none of the fans think much of).

CEH: Did not seize the gig, didn't get bell cow carries, looked pedestrian to league average per touch, looked like how he tested, and who he was before his '19 season at LSU, Damien Williams will be back next year.

Robinson: Teams tend to not be as locked in on cheaply acquired RB's as full time long term starters as they are w/guys they used huge draft capital on. The team is going to have a complete makeover of everything with new GM and HC in place, owner is seemingly ready to interfere as well. On the positive side: one of the best 3 or 4 QB prospects to come out since Elway in '83 is in the building, the WR's include former breakout DJ Chark, and quality rookie Laviska Shenault and there aren't any major challenges in house for the gig.


So I don't know, there's reason to be nervous on all of these guys (and Moss, and AJ Dillon and more), but for me anyway, I ignored all that and spent the fall of '18 through the early spring of '20 piling up as many picks I projected to be high as humanly possible for the '20 class so I could begin the process of moving from backfields typically built around guys from the '15-'18 classes, to a completely new career clock w/guys from the '20 clock which is how in 15 leagues I ended up with these shares of the guys across 12 dynasty leagues, 2 RSO leagues and 1 Keeper League:

JK Dobbins: 10/15

Jonathan Taylor: 9/15

D'Andre Swift: 8/15

CEH: 5/15

Cam Akers: 5/15

Antonio Gibson: 3/15


We'll see if it's smart. I've been committed to the RB Age Cliff Theory for a while yet, and last year my blood went cold when a writer wondered if the Age Cliff might be distorted by what I tend to call the Great RB Drought of 2009-2014 (six consecutive crummy RB classes), which would artificially drive down RB age curves considering the '09-'14 generation of RB prospects was the worst drought anyone's seen since I've been playing ('98). That's the kind of counterargument that can really scare the heck out of me because it's compelling. If you have a ton of RB's basically repeatedly crash out of the league early because they're awful prospects, that will drive the curve down. I'm super curious what the age cliff looked like w/a 20 year sample size of say, 1989-2009, as compared to the 2000-2020 sampling, because it's hard not to imagine that it isn't just the changes in the league that matter, but the ups and downs of classes in relatively small windows over time.

Regardless, by the time I read about that possibility I was pot committed with more than 2 dozen '20 firsts, and a pile of 2nds (all used on WR's for the most part), and had already been drafting these guys all spring and summer. Thankfully the scary start to the season where other than CEH, nobody looked impressive turned over to reveal the opposite after September, with everyone slowly either taking the starting gig completely in hand (Taylor, Akers, GIbson) or nearly so (Dobbins, Swift), so I'm pretty happy w/what I did, even if I'd apportion the picks differently, preferably w/my pre-draft rankings (which would've meant I'd have even more Dobbins and Swift, and zero CEH in retrospect, but still be understaffed in terms of Akers).

Anyway, time will tell, I love all the guys, they're all generally quite young, and so I can roll through them through the next two suspect RB classes while I try to acquire picks for '23 and beyond to restock and keep an eye on the age cliff to get a better feel for whether what happened with the the big boys of the '15 and '16 classes is definitively relevant for the big boys of the '17 and '18 (and more) classes moving forward.

[murphysxm]

How does Kamara not make this list?

He's coming off a high volume season, in his second contract, and will likely have a new QB next year. He's done. He also just got stuffed at the one a couple times in his last game.
[/quote]

please tell me this is sarcasm

[CGW]

It obviously was sarcasm.

[murphysxm]

It obviously was sarcasm.

you never know these days.....

[CGW]

It obviously was sarcasm.

you never know these days.....

Very true. I guess I shouldn't assume!