Sriracha wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:19 pm
stoneghost28 wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:13 pm
Me as well. Swift not getting a heavy load of the touches was a byproduct of "veteraness preference" stupidity from their horse
---- coaching staff that got ---- canned.
As long as they avoid hiring a complete dribbling moron to replace the chuckleheads of this iteration of Detroit Failure, Swift will get tons of touches moving forward.
Are you sure? Wouldn't Kerryon have gotten a bigger workload if this were just "veteraness preference"?
I love me some swift and do think he emerges as the lead back in this offense.. but I'd hesitate to sweep his lack of volume under the rug based on narratives. Akers and Dobbins both got the veteran deference treatment to begin the year but eventually emerged as the clear bell cow (in the case of Akers) and the lead back (in the case of Dobbins). Henderson was playing well, probably better than AP, too. While it'd be silly to drop Swift below these other guys because of it, when we're splitting hairs with similarly talented RBs imo it's the smart to play to rank Swift below the RBs that have already seized the lead roles especially when you consider the uncertainty around Stafford going into the 2021 season.
I understand Swift's momentum was stalled by a multi game absence because of a concussion and he technically led his team in rushing a few times.. but a lot of that came after DET was playing from behind and he dominated the snaps because he was their 3rd down back.. not because they had a predetermined preference for him regardless of gamescript; which was the case with Dobbins -- who is also on a much better rushing offense and has certainty at QB.
I do agree he belongs in tier 1, though.
I very much doubt it, Kerryon has had an injury riddled career, and AP carries that "Iron Man" tag at this point. If things were logical, and rational, yeah, you'd be right, but how much logic do we see eschewed on a weekly basis by these guys? Plenty.
I have no problem falling on my sword w/Swift, if I'm wrong on that call, I'll gladly eat it. Sometimes you just miss, and I can live w/being wrong with Swift, it's decisions like taking CEH at 1.02 in a few leagues, that I'm truly bitter about (although let it be said, just as I expect Swift to get the gig in '21, I also expect CEH to take a hold of the gig next year (even if the Chiefs give their guy fewer carries than the others end up getting as the Running Back 1 in their offense). We'll see how it plays out, but in terms of talent, I'd have Swift inside my top 10 overall right now, it's just the dumpster fire issues inside Detroit which freak me out. Though in truth, the only RB's in good situations right now are Dobbins and CEH and even they have their issues:
Taylor: No QB if Rivers retires.
Dobbins: Lamar doesn't throw to RB's, and Edwards is an RFA they could end up bringing back.
Swift: No QB if Stafford leaves, new coach, new GM, garbage team since Leave it Beaver ended it's original run, and Buddy Holly died in a plane crash.
Akers: Got capped out, had to let their OL fall apart, they don't really have a legit starting QB, their starter is below league average at best.
Gibson: The OL scored well by PFF standards in run blocking but is exceptionally weak in pedigree, no QB in house and no hope of landing one unless via trade, offense is basically bereft of talent beyond him and McLaurin and perhaps breakout TE Logan Thomas (who none of the fans think much of).
CEH: Did not seize the gig, didn't get bell cow carries, looked pedestrian to league average per touch, looked like how he tested, and who he was before his '19 season at LSU, Damien Williams will be back next year.
Robinson: Teams tend to not be as locked in on cheaply acquired RB's as full time long term starters as they are w/guys they used huge draft capital on. The team is going to have a complete makeover of everything with new GM and HC in place, owner is seemingly ready to interfere as well. On the positive side: one of the best 3 or 4 QB prospects to come out since Elway in '83 is in the building, the WR's include former breakout DJ Chark, and quality rookie Laviska Shenault and there aren't any major challenges in house for the gig.
So I don't know, there's reason to be nervous on all of these guys (and Moss, and AJ Dillon and more), but for me anyway, I ignored all that and spent the fall of '18 through the early spring of '20 piling up as many picks I projected to be high as humanly possible for the '20 class so I could begin the process of moving from backfields typically built around guys from the '15-'18 classes, to a completely new career clock w/guys from the '20 clock which is how in 15 leagues I ended up with these shares of the guys across 12 dynasty leagues, 2 RSO leagues and 1 Keeper League:
JK Dobbins: 10/15
Jonathan Taylor: 9/15
D'Andre Swift: 8/15
Cam Akers: 5/15
Antonio Gibson: 3/15
We'll see if it's smart. I've been committed to the RB Age Cliff Theory for a while yet, and last year my blood went cold when a writer wondered if the Age Cliff might be distorted by what I tend to call the Great RB Drought of 2009-2014 (six consecutive crummy RB classes), which would artificially drive down RB age curves considering the '09-'14 generation of RB prospects was the worst drought anyone's seen since I've been playing ('98). That's the kind of counterargument that can really scare the heck out of me because it's compelling. If you have a ton of RB's basically repeatedly crash out of the league early because they're awful prospects, that will drive the curve down. I'm super curious what the age cliff looked like w/a 20 year sample size of say, 1989-2009, as compared to the 2000-2020 sampling, because it's hard not to imagine that it isn't just the changes in the league that matter, but the ups and downs of classes in relatively small windows over time.
Regardless, by the time I read about that possibility I was pot committed with more than 2 dozen '20 firsts, and a pile of 2nds (all used on WR's for the most part), and had already been drafting these guys all spring and summer. Thankfully the scary start to the season where other than CEH, nobody looked impressive turned over to reveal the opposite after September, with everyone slowly either taking the starting gig completely in hand (Taylor, Akers, GIbson) or nearly so (Dobbins, Swift), so I'm pretty happy w/what I did, even if I'd apportion the picks differently, preferably w/my pre-draft rankings (which would've meant I'd have even more Dobbins and Swift, and zero CEH in retrospect, but still be understaffed in terms of Akers).
Anyway, time will tell, I love all the guys, they're all generally quite young, and so I can roll through them through the next two suspect RB classes while I try to acquire picks for '23 and beyond to restock and keep an eye on the age cliff to get a better feel for whether what happened with the the big boys of the '15 and '16 classes is definitively relevant for the big boys of the '17 and '18 (and more) classes moving forward.