Domino Effect

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
CGW
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Re: Domino Effect

Postby CGW » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:04 am

JJRules wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:06 am
This is a great post, and is something I've struggled with here at times.

My biggest weakness is overvaluing my players during trade negotiations, so I mostly just come here for sanity checks to make sure I'm not getting in my own way. I've learned whose takes and advice lean more towards logic than emotion, and give extra weight to their input.
I agree, it is very hard to not like the players you invested in. It's also why I usually assume any time I'm trading the other owner devalues my offers.

To the OP, the forum is a source of info and entertainment. If you find a take you disagree with, ignore it. Everyone values players differently, so having some people value DK over MT is healthy just like having some people think he's trash because his 3 cone times. It's the general averages where a players true value lie, rather than the extremes. If we all had the same values for every player there would be minimal variance to FF.

What probably bothers me more is when people can't have differing opinions. What makes one person's opinions on the value of a player better vs another person's? Surely, there are many ways to construct rosters and value prospects.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco, Walker
RB | CEH, Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, D. Johnson, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Minshew, Tagovailoa
RB | Montgomery, Singletary, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, M. Brown, D. Johnson, Slayton, Aiyuk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Mooney
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Sample

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Smith, Flacco
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Wilkins
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith, Zaccheus
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, L. Thomas

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby Patsfan86 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:21 am

steelman wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:29 pm
Don't listen to anyone on here. Instead, read the advice and see how that fits in with what you already believe. Then you can decide how the posts you read will affect your beliefs.

Sometimes I asked for advice and completely ignored it because I was strong in my beliefs, other times I changed my mind and followed what I read here because I was torn to begin with.
This exactly, use it as a guide, not as the ultimate decision. What i find this forum is most useful for is talk about college prospects. I dont follow college, i am also not a film or analytics buff. But there is some good talk around here about college players that i wouldnt get anywhere else. Also when it comes to college unless you are in a devy league you dont have those players yet so you arent going to fall into the "he is my player trap" that we all fall into, most of the posters are also looking at things more objectively for this reason too. I have learned to not follow any advice on here when it comes to actual NFL players, when the players are in the NFL people have major bias and values are all over the place. Its better to use non biased facts like ADP the DLF trade finder or even a Trade calculator in order to get the value on a player

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby murphysxm » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:32 am

I avoid the posters that dig their heels in and refuse to adjuxt their opinions of players. I actually pay more attention to the takes that I completely disagree with so I can self check myself. If somebody is that adamant about a players value, maybe I need to re look at him. At the end of the day it is my team and I will do what I think is best.

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby jenkins.math » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:37 am

Group think is prevalent in society in general, so if you're coming to a FF forum looking for new and fresh ideas I don't think you're going to find what you're looking for. Just think how long it took analytics to make it's way into professional sports and how many scoffed at the idea originally. Now virtually every single front office of every single sports team has an analytics department. People naturally fear what they don't understand so most will just roll with the masses. I also think a lot of people don't have the time/inclination/abilty (take your pick) to do their own research anyway so they just regurgitate what they heard that made the most sense to them.

As for the use of this board, I find the completed trade threads most useful. That is a realistic and actual gauge of what players are going for in various leagues and should give you a good idea what a player is actually worth. If you ask for an opinion on a player's value (most common answer regardless of who it is = "late first") you are going to get a variety of responses but they are utterly irrelevant if there hasn't been one completed trade made for anything close to the opinion given. I like this place as a good sounding board and use it as just another tool to gather information, but it's not the end all be all by any means.
Team 1: 14 team dynasty, 25 man roster, keep 14
QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, 2Flex, D/ST, K, DL, LB, DE
QB: Ryan, Mayfield
RB: Barkley, CEH, Kelley, Ahmed, Snell
WR: OBJ, Evans, Juju, Moore, Jeudy, Reagor, Corey Davis, Cooks
TE: Kittle, L. Thomas
K: Butker
D/ST: Browns, Bears
DL: Buckner
LB: Kendricks
DB: B. Baker

Team 2: 12 team PPR Salary Cap
QB: Watson, Goff
RB: Barkley, CEH, Gibson, Howard, Perine, Lewis, Ozigbo
WR: Hill, Allen, Boyd, Landry, Sims, DJax, Hamler, Westbrook
TE: Schultz, Ebron, Thomas, Keene, Jarwin
K: Tucker
D/ST: Steelers, Bills
Taxi: Lock, Bryce Love, Higgins

Team 3: 12 team SF
QB: Wentz, Mayfield, Love
RB: AP, Lewis, Perine, JJ Taylor, Vaughn, Mack
WR: Jeudy, Jeffrey, P Williams, Mooney, Cephus, Fitz, Gandy-Golden, Hightower, Swain, Bisi Johnson, Tate
TE: Doyle, Smith, Trautman, Keene, Warring

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby Ray Finkle » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:45 pm

jenkins.math wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:37 am
Group think is prevalent in society in general, so if you're coming to a FF forum looking for new and fresh ideas I don't think you're going to find what you're looking for. Just think how long it took analytics to make it's way into professional sports and how many scoffed at the idea originally. Now virtually every single front office of every single sports team has an analytics department. People naturally fear what they don't understand so most will just roll with the masses. I also think a lot of people don't have the time/inclination/abilty (take your pick) to do their own research anyway so they just regurgitate what they heard that made the most sense to them.

As for the use of this board, I find the completed trade threads most useful. That is a realistic and actual gauge of what players are going for in various leagues and should give you a good idea what a player is actually worth. If you ask for an opinion on a player's value (most common answer regardless of who it is = "late first") you are going to get a variety of responses but they are utterly irrelevant if there hasn't been one completed trade made for anything close to the opinion given. I like this place as a good sounding board and use it as just another tool to gather information, but it's not the end all be all by any means.
Bingo

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby killer_of_giants » Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:54 am

McCafsteez wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:34 pm
My point is, how do you determine who/what you listen to after reading and analyzing others' opinions?
the reasoning behind the opinion. most of the time there isn't any (my posts included), so well, ok cool.
if an argument is well thought out and well presented, then i'll listen. i may keep on disagreeing, but it will help me make my mind up nonetheless.

"you must have a gazillion shares of that player to even think he's good" posters are the worse. but it's an internet forum, mostly grown men and women behaving like 12 years old and spouting bleep if they can't find an adequate response, that's normal.

and dobbins is going to be great. because i say so and i have a gazillion shares (i wish i had ffs...)

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby McCafsteez » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:48 am

killer_of_giants wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:54 am
McCafsteez wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:34 pm
My point is, how do you determine who/what you listen to after reading and analyzing others' opinions?
the reasoning behind the opinion. most of the time there isn't any (my posts included), so well, ok cool.
if an argument is well thought out and well presented, then i'll listen. i may keep on disagreeing, but it will help me make my mind up nonetheless.

"you must have a gazillion shares of that player to even think he's good" posters are the worse. but it's an internet forum, mostly grown men and women behaving like 12 years old and spouting bleep if they can't find an adequate response, that's normal.

and dobbins is going to be great. because i say so and i have a gazillion shares (i wish i had ffs...)
Great stuff here. I think an issue on this forum is people not being able to swallow their pride and realize they are wrong in certain situations. In those cases, they would rather portray their wrong opinion to fight and show they are right to protect their reputation. Smart dynasty players know when to cash out and accept their L.
v1 - 12 Team PPR (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex)
QB: Watson, Herbert
RB: Cook, Chubb, White, Mattison, Hines, Mack
WR: Evans, Cooper, DJ Moore, Robinson, Boyd, M. Williams
TE: Waller, Engram
-
v2 - 12 Team .5 PPR / 1.5 PPR TE Premium / SF / (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, 3 Flex, SF)
QB: Jackson, Rivers, Brady
RB: Sanders, Henry, Fournette, Gaskin, D. Freeman, Peterson
WR: Hopkins, Allen, OBJ, Diggs, Jeffery, Sanders,
TE: Kelce, Schultz, Ebron, Graham
-
v3 - 12 Team PPR / SF / (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Goff, Tannehill, Darnold
RB: Dobbins, Akers, McFarland, Scott
WR: Sutton, M. Brown, D. Samuel, Jeudy, Reagor, Ruggs III, Duvernay, V. Jefferson
TE: Fant, Thomas
-
v4 - 12 Team PPR / 1.5 PPR TE PREM / SF /(QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Ryan, Rodgers, Herbert, Haskins Jr.
RB: CMC, Cook, Davis, Peterson, Mattison, McFarland
WR: JuJu, Metcalf, Edelman, G. Tate, Mooney
TE: Andrews, Hooper, Thomas, Ebron

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby Patsfan86 » Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:32 am

McCafsteez wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:48 am
killer_of_giants wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:54 am
McCafsteez wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:34 pm
My point is, how do you determine who/what you listen to after reading and analyzing others' opinions?
the reasoning behind the opinion. most of the time there isn't any (my posts included), so well, ok cool.
if an argument is well thought out and well presented, then i'll listen. i may keep on disagreeing, but it will help me make my mind up nonetheless.

"you must have a gazillion shares of that player to even think he's good" posters are the worse. but it's an internet forum, mostly grown men and women behaving like 12 years old and spouting bleep if they can't find an adequate response, that's normal.

and dobbins is going to be great. because i say so and i have a gazillion shares (i wish i had ffs...)
Great stuff here. I think an issue on this forum is people not being able to swallow their pride and realize they are wrong in certain situations. In those cases, they would rather portray their wrong opinion to fight and show they are right to protect their reputation. Smart dynasty players know when to cash out and accept their L.
Yup, take lock is tremendously strong around here. Thats why the Rojo thread is still going after 2 years, my favorite thread on here btw. Cashing out early is def better than cashing out late. For instance I decided to cash out early on my whole team this season because i saw it was scoring low points and just not doing well. Since then I Acquired Justin Jefferson, 2 firsts (one high one low) a high second, and Michael Pittman. This along with my 2020 draft has made my team look pretty strong for the future. Swift Gibson DK, Jefferson, Mims, Pittman, Fulgham, Irv Smith plus 2 firsts and a second is a good rebuild IMO. I would not have been able to do any of this if i had strong Take Lock on guys like Lamar, Gallup and Sutton who i all traded away to acquire these pieces. SOmetimes its better to swallow some pride and cash out on someone.

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby The Godwin Complex » Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:33 pm

For me personally I dont usually participate in threads where there isnt much value to add. However, there are times where I do see agreeableness to a fault where people miss opportunities to question and evolve in their understanding or perspective. Those conversations I usually like to participate in because I like the challenge and I like trying to bring something unique to the table. My concern is less about good or bad, right or wrong, as it is how someone arrived at their opinion.

The people who cant or refuse to explain the details of how they arrived at their opinions are typically the opinions that become least valuable to me.

For example: Many will say Evans is a top fantasy WR. However, when I compare to Landry whose fantasy output has been very similar over the last 5 years....for some reason people cant explain how they arrive at them being in different tiers of production. If you cant explain your opinion, then I cant incorporate it. Simple.

Its the people who will actually be receptive to your questions/comments/concerns and respond to them that are the most valuable. The people who react to you personally, instead of responding to what you’re saying or bringing to the table are the least valuable. These are all my opinions 😃
2020 BOLD PREDICTIONS
James Robinson’s 2020 production in PPR will be comparable to or better than
Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Swift, and Cam Akers.
Are You Willing To Put Up or Shut Up?
Make Your Bold Prediction Here



12 TEAM SUPERFLEX PPR
START: QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SUPERFLEX
ROSTER STARTERS
QB: B. Roethlisberger (PIT)
RB: N. Chubb (CLE), L. Fournette (TB)
WR: C. Godwin (TB), J. Smith-Schuster (PIT), J. Landry (CLE)
TE: M. Alie-Cox (IND), D. Njoku (CLE)
FLEX: T. Fulgham (PHI), D. Harris (NE), R. Cobb (HOU)
SUPERFLEX: Sam Darnold (NYJ)


BENCH: G. Minshew (JAX), J. Luton (Jax) D. Dallas (SEA), A. Collins (SEA), J. Howard (MIA), J. Wilkins (IND), G. Olszewski (NE), K. Hodge (CLE), W. Snead (BAL), D. Washington (MIA), K. Vaughn (TB), A. Tate (CIN), JJ Taylor (NE), C. Patterson (CHI), M. Rudolph (PIT), L. Fitzgerald (AZ)
IR: C. Sutton (DEN), B. Jarwin (DAL), R. Penny (SEA), S. Michel (NE), D. Asiasi (NE), D. Keene (NE)

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby jjleurquin » Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:19 pm

The Godwin Complex wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:33 pm
For me personally I dont usually participate in threads where there isnt much value to add. However, there are times where I do see agreeableness to a fault where people miss opportunities to question and evolve in their understanding or perspective. Those conversations I usually like to participate in because I like the challenge and I like trying to bring something unique to the table. My concern is less about good or bad, right or wrong, as it is how someone arrived at their opinion.

The people who cant or refuse to explain the details of how they arrived at their opinions are typically the opinions that become least valuable to me.

For example: Many will say Evans is a top fantasy WR. However, when I compare to Landry whose fantasy output has been very similar over the last 5 years....for some reason people cant explain how they arrive at them being in different tiers of production. If you cant explain your opinion, then I cant incorporate it. Simple.

Its the people who will actually be receptive to your questions/comments/concerns and respond to them that are the most valuable. The people who react to you personally, instead of responding to what you’re saying or bringing to the table are the least valuable. These are all my opinions 😃
I mean Jarvis Landry is a good receiver don't get me wrong, but he's not the type of guy that defenses gameplan around like Mike Evans is. His level of talent opens up the field for everyone else on the field if the plan for him, if they defenses don't plan that way then Evans will likely have a big game. Being a deep/jump ball receiver isn't necessarily the best situation to have an aging QB throwing him the ball though. Tom Brady is definitely not bad but his play style doesn't seem to mesh extremely well with Evans. Evans is the same type of WR and I would also consider him in the same talent bracket as Calvin Johnson just a little less athletic.

So either Evans stays in Tampa and in 2 years he returns to form with Brady gone or he goes elsewhere and likely plays with a QB more suited to his play style. While Evans is a better WR than Landry, Landry might actually do better than Evans if he were to play with Tom Brady. Let's also not forget in 2/3 games without Godwin so far he's gone over 100 yards. The 1 game he didn't he was very clearly struggling with his hammy throughout the game. Godwin also isn't signed for next season, and with Miller and Johnson both playing well with their opportunities I don't think it's that crazy of an idea that he doesn't get resigned.

While I could see the appeal of Fulgham and I have even been targeting him myself this is a dynasty forum and the level of play that Evans brings is just undervalued. He was underpriced as a dynasty asset coming into the year and his price has only gone down. Some players you do sell while they're on their way down but this isn't one of them. He'd be the #1 on the majority of the teams if he were to get traded for next season. That's not something you can say about Landry.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
2021-1,1,2,4

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby killer_of_giants » Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:16 am

^ tl;dr






























Image

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby gpaok » Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:52 am

This is a great post and something that crosses my mind all the time! Especially when a post has 3-4 replies but 300-400 views.
10 team Dynasty Superflex, 1 PPR, 25 player roster
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, SFlex, Flex, DEF

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Drew Brees
RB: Nick Chubb, David Johnson, Chris Carson, J.K. Dobbins, Alexander Mattison, Chase Edmunds, Sony Michael, AJ Dillion, L Perine, J. Hasty, Deejay Dallas
WR: Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, Allen Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Cooks, Bryan Edwards
TE: Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, Irv Smith Jr.
DEF: Ravens, Steelers


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