Domino Effect

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McCafsteez
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Domino Effect

Postby McCafsteez » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:34 pm

This is more of a unique and general thought that has been circling my mind. I have seen quite a few posts recently with some takes I definitely disagree with. I am forever appreciative of this community because DLF is one of the best dynasty resources out there. The issue I have been experiencing lately is the domino effect. I am noticing that more and more users jump on the bandwagon of a player's value just because other users are choosing to do so. Whether it's jumping the gun too quickly on a player or refusing to like a player for "x" reason/s even when they are producing. The most recent example I recall is the post about DK Metcalf being incredibly more valuable than Michael Thomas and that it would be embarrassing to even offer Thomas for Metcalf straight up. My point being, I am struggling to take advice in some situations because it seems that DLF has a general bias for or against certain players. When should I take advice from a thread and when should I not? Well, that is the million dollar question, here... My point is, how do you determine who/what you listen to after reading and analyzing others' opinions?
v1 - 12 Team PPR (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex)
QB: Watson, Herbert
RB: Cook, Chubb, White, Mattison, Hines, Mack
WR: Evans, Cooper, DJ Moore, Robinson, Boyd, M. Williams
TE: Waller, Engram
-
v2 - 12 Team .5 PPR / 1.5 PPR TE Premium / SF / (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, 3 Flex, SF)
QB: Jackson, Rivers, Brady
RB: Sanders, Henry, Fournette, Gaskin, D. Freeman, Peterson
WR: Hopkins, Allen, OBJ, Diggs, Jeffery, Sanders,
TE: Kelce, Schultz, Ebron, Graham
-
v3 - 12 Team PPR / SF / (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Goff, Tannehill, Darnold
RB: Dobbins, Akers, McFarland, Scott
WR: Sutton, M. Brown, D. Samuel, Jeudy, Reagor, Ruggs III, Duvernay, V. Jefferson
TE: Fant, Thomas
-
v4 - 12 Team PPR / 1.5 PPR TE PREM / SF /(QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Ryan, Rodgers, Herbert, Haskins Jr.
RB: CMC, Cook, Davis, Peterson, Mattison, McFarland
WR: JuJu, Metcalf, Edelman, G. Tate, Mooney
TE: Andrews, Hooper, Thomas, Ebron

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:38 pm

While the posts seem like a domino effect and everyone agrees, I think most people don't comment, so it's not as lopsided as it seems.

I suggest you follow your own instincts while taking the advice on this site with a grain of salt. If you end up being wrong, you'll remember and your instincts will adjust accordingly.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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McCafsteez
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Re: Domino Effect

Postby McCafsteez » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:44 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:38 pm
While the posts seem like a domino effect and everyone agrees, I think most people don't comment, so it's not as lopsided as it seems.

I suggest you follow your own instincts while taking the advice on this site with a grain of salt. If you end up being wrong, you'll remember and your instincts will adjust accordingly.
Very true. I honestly didn't even consider the users who don't respond to threads. Makes me wonder how many users only read vs. participate on this forum. Do you find yourself typically leaning towards the same direction as our peers on this site in terms of sharing the same / similar opinions on players?
v1 - 12 Team PPR (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex)
QB: Watson, Herbert
RB: Cook, Chubb, White, Mattison, Hines, Mack
WR: Evans, Cooper, DJ Moore, Robinson, Boyd, M. Williams
TE: Waller, Engram
-
v2 - 12 Team .5 PPR / 1.5 PPR TE Premium / SF / (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, 3 Flex, SF)
QB: Jackson, Rivers, Brady
RB: Sanders, Henry, Fournette, Gaskin, D. Freeman, Peterson
WR: Hopkins, Allen, OBJ, Diggs, Jeffery, Sanders,
TE: Kelce, Schultz, Ebron, Graham
-
v3 - 12 Team PPR / SF / (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Goff, Tannehill, Darnold
RB: Dobbins, Akers, McFarland, Scott
WR: Sutton, M. Brown, D. Samuel, Jeudy, Reagor, Ruggs III, Duvernay, V. Jefferson
TE: Fant, Thomas
-
v4 - 12 Team PPR / 1.5 PPR TE PREM / SF /(QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 2 Flex, SF)
QB: Ryan, Rodgers, Herbert, Haskins Jr.
RB: CMC, Cook, Davis, Peterson, Mattison, McFarland
WR: JuJu, Metcalf, Edelman, G. Tate, Mooney
TE: Andrews, Hooper, Thomas, Ebron

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:54 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:38 pm
While the posts seem like a domino effect and everyone agrees, I think most people don't comment, so it's not as lopsided as it seems.

I suggest you follow your own instincts while taking the advice on this site with a grain of salt. If you end up being wrong, you'll remember and your instincts will adjust accordingly.
There's a lot of threads I don't comment on becuase I think the trade is fair. Some offers though are lopsidedly one way so a lot of people agree on so you'll see everyone piling one side. I'm sure there's some where people see 10 people agree and don't really feel like getting ganged up on over particular views. I would definitely do my best to hear both sides whenever looking for advice regardless of if the person is in the majority on a particular subject.

Personally I wouldn't even comment on that DK post as I think it's crazy to say he's clearly above MT already.

Also do not take this forums advice on JK Dobbins. He could fumble it 5 times in 1 game and people would still view him as their savior.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
2021-1,1,2,4

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby Pac_Eddy » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:57 pm

McCafsteez wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:44 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:38 pm
While the posts seem like a domino effect and everyone agrees, I think most people don't comment, so it's not as lopsided as it seems.

I suggest you follow your own instincts while taking the advice on this site with a grain of salt. If you end up being wrong, you'll remember and your instincts will adjust accordingly.
Very true. I honestly didn't even consider the users who don't respond to threads. Makes me wonder how many users only read vs. participate on this forum. Do you find yourself typically leaning towards the same direction as our peers on this site in terms of sharing the same / similar opinions on players?
It depends. If the subject is a player I don't know much about, yeah, I lean the way the board goes, but it's not a firm hold until I can see the player myself, which may not ever happen. I'd I find myself disagreeing with the majority here, I stay quieter as you can get piled on, which would be ok if it was all productive talk.

I think there are many times more readers than commenters, but that's just a guess.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:07 pm

Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:57 pm
McCafsteez wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:44 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:38 pm
While the posts seem like a domino effect and everyone agrees, I think most people don't comment, so it's not as lopsided as it seems.

I suggest you follow your own instincts while taking the advice on this site with a grain of salt. If you end up being wrong, you'll remember and your instincts will adjust accordingly.
Very true. I honestly didn't even consider the users who don't respond to threads. Makes me wonder how many users only read vs. participate on this forum. Do you find yourself typically leaning towards the same direction as our peers on this site in terms of sharing the same / similar opinions on players?
It depends. If the subject is a player I don't know much about, yeah, I lean the way the board goes, but it's not a firm hold until I can see the player myself, which may not ever happen. I'd I find myself disagreeing with the majority here, I stay quieter as you can get piled on, which would be ok if it was all productive talk.

I think there are many times more readers than commenters, but that's just a guess.
The most stuck in their views feel the need to start shouting (here that means just keep regurgitating the same stuff without acknowledging the other facts.) People get attached to their opinions and they feel someone seeing something differently is attack on their person. Look for the people who are using logic and reasoning as well as facts in a given topic. (One person can be providing facts in 1 topic and then completely emotional in another.) Just like what you see in politics the most vocal are the ones that are the farthest to one side on a particular subject. Someone may decide it's not worth their effort to argue in this situation even if the facts are on their side.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
2021-1,1,2,4

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby Dr.Graffin » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:16 pm

I'd just take what you like from the forum and throw the rest away. It's one resource of many available.

I still recall a comment someone made on a trade I did approximately 5 years ago, telling me "I'd regret the day" that I traded away Jeremy Hill....lol...or how trading Cooks, Alshon, and some junk for Henry last year (2019 offseason) was a good deal, but I really should have traded for a different running back.
12 Team Non-PPR, 6pt TDs-6th year Dynasty
1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1TE, 2Flex (W/R/T), 1K, 1Def
QB: A. Rodgers, M. Ryan, A. Smith, A. Dalton
RB: R. Jones, M. Gaskin, D. Singletary, G. Edwards, M. Ingram, S. Ahmed, K. Ballage, D. Foreman, J. D. McKissic
WR: D. J. Chark, C. Kupp, T. Boyd, R. Anderson, A. Jeffery, C. Sims
TE: L. Thomas, I. Smith Jr., M. Gesicki
K: J. Tucker
D/ST: Baltimore, Indianapolis
Taxi Squad: J. Hurts, D. Asiasi, J. Hightower
2021 Picks: 3rd, 4th

12 Team PPR, 6pt TDs
-2020 Startup
1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1TE, 2Flex (W/R/T), 1K, 1Def
QB: P. Mahomes, J. Garropolo
RB: A. Kamara, L. Bell, M. Ingram, T. Coleman, L. Murray, G. Edwards
WR: D. Adams, R. Woods, T. Boyd, J. Brown, J. Crowder, L. Fitzgerald, R. Cobb
TE: Z. Ertz, J. Cook
K: J. Tucker
D/ST: New England, Buffalo, Miami
2021 Picks: 2nd, 3rd, 4th

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby AussieMate » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:40 pm

jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:54 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:38 pm
While the posts seem like a domino effect and everyone agrees, I think most people don't comment, so it's not as lopsided as it seems.

I suggest you follow your own instincts while taking the advice on this site with a grain of salt. If you end up being wrong, you'll remember and your instincts will adjust accordingly.
There's a lot of threads I don't comment on becuase I think the trade is fair. Some offers though are lopsidedly one way so a lot of people agree on so you'll see everyone piling one side. I'm sure there's some where people see 10 people agree and don't really feel like getting ganged up on over particular views. I would definitely do my best to hear both sides whenever looking for advice regardless of if the person is in the majority on a particular subject.

Personally I wouldn't even comment on that DK post as I think it's crazy to say he's clearly above MT already.

Also do not take this forums advice on JK Dobbins. He could fumble it 5 times in 1 game and people would still view him as their savior.
Has there really been that much talk on Dobbins around here? It's rare I see his name pop up and its usually people saying they hope he gets some more chances soon.

To the OP, make sure you read everything, 10 people could be circle-jerking a player and 1 person bringing up legitimate criticism, just have to wade through it all and don't ignore the quiet 1 under the loud 10.

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby jjleurquin » Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:43 pm

AussieMate wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:40 pm
jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:54 pm
Pac_Eddy wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:38 pm
While the posts seem like a domino effect and everyone agrees, I think most people don't comment, so it's not as lopsided as it seems.

I suggest you follow your own instincts while taking the advice on this site with a grain of salt. If you end up being wrong, you'll remember and your instincts will adjust accordingly.
There's a lot of threads I don't comment on becuase I think the trade is fair. Some offers though are lopsidedly one way so a lot of people agree on so you'll see everyone piling one side. I'm sure there's some where people see 10 people agree and don't really feel like getting ganged up on over particular views. I would definitely do my best to hear both sides whenever looking for advice regardless of if the person is in the majority on a particular subject.

Personally I wouldn't even comment on that DK post as I think it's crazy to say he's clearly above MT already.

Also do not take this forums advice on JK Dobbins. He could fumble it 5 times in 1 game and people would still view him as their savior.
Has there really been that much talk on Dobbins around here? It's rare I see his name pop up and its usually people saying they hope he gets some more chances soon.

To the OP, make sure you read everything, 10 people could be circle-jerking a player and 1 person bringing up legitimate criticism, just have to wade through it all and don't ignore the quiet 1 under the loud 10.
I'm not sure there has been a lot of talk about Dobbins recently just that this forum is overly infatuated with him. He was the 5th RB taken for a reason. Odds are he's going to be a RB2 for 4 or 5 years but he's talked about here as a sure thing to be a RB1 starting next year.
Team 1 12 team PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Mahomes, Bridgewater, Dalton
RB-Conner, Hunt, Vaughn, Henderson, Edmonds, Evans, Dillon
WR-Godwin, Gallup, Claypool, Hardman, C. Samuel, Renfrow, Lazard, Washington, Isabella, Mooney, G.Davis, Ford, Cole,
TE-Kittle, Ertz, Reed, Bryant

2021-1,1,3,4,4,4

Team 2 12 team .5PPR SF
QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-F-F-SF

QB-Rodgers, Goff, Darnold
RB-Ekeler, Jones, Montgomery, Conner, Henderson, Breida, Dillon, McKinnon,
WR-Julio, MT, Evans, Green, Shepard, Renfrow, G.Tate, Ford,
TE-Kittle, Hurst, Everett, K.Smith, Akins
2021-1,1,2,4

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby steelman » Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:29 pm

Don't listen to anyone on here. Instead, read the advice and see how that fits in with what you already believe. Then you can decide how the posts you read will affect your beliefs.

Sometimes I asked for advice and completely ignored it because I was strong in my beliefs, other times I changed my mind and followed what I read here because I was torn to begin with.

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby mild » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:23 am

jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:54 pm
Also do not take this forums advice on JK Dobbins. He could fumble it 5 times in 1 game and people would still view him as their savior.
jjleurquin wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:43 pm
I'm not sure there has been a lot of talk about Dobbins recently just that this forum is overly infatuated with him. He was the 5th RB taken for a reason. Odds are he's going to be a RB2 for 4 or 5 years but he's talked about here as a sure thing to be a RB1 starting next year.
To my Dobbins faithful.

Heed not the words of the slanderer, the great unwashed, the charlatan, the great deceiver. He speaketh the words, but he knoweth not what he says.

https://youtu.be/qayQOV4A63U

Keep. The mother-fuggin. Faith.

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby sloth8u » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:34 am

Value is an enormous part of dynasty league football. I'd suggest grabbing a notebook and ranking your top 300. Add, subtract, adjust accordingly.

If your honest with yourself, draft the rookies you like, trust your gut in trades....you'll enjoy your league and should be able to build a perennial playoff team.

Come here for the entertainment 👍

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby jcc6fd » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:04 am

This isn’t too dissimilar for the market of any commodity. Speculators say the price of oil is going down causing large hedge funds with all of our 401k money move out of it quickly. Even though a relatively few money managers have just made a decision the ability of the masses to move out of oil will now require taking a huge loss because it’s perceived value is much lower based on what the experts did. This creates the piling on or “domino effect” you’re describing. In extreme cases, it can cause bubbles, or unsubstantiated optimism that results in later crashes when flaws in valuation are revealed. The opposite is also true when devaluation is based on what is later proven to be bad information.

Similarly we prop up the value of Josh Gordon for years because there is a large group of people willing to bet on his talent and theoretical future opportunity, despite the eventual reality proving to be that he was worthless the whole time. Vice versa, Robert Woods continues to be a solid fantasy producer, but because a large portion of people didn’t expect him to be good, lingering doubts suppress his trade value below the value his production brings to you.

So the question is, what sources do you trust? I’m probably not a great definitive source when compared to Matt Waldman, who knows much more about football and talent scouting. The NFL tends to be a reputable valuation source since they spend a ton of resources on evaluators to get the best players. But we know they too get things wrong all the time.

That’s what makes this game both frustrating and fun. It’s so unpredictable year to year. I’ve found a lot of helpful posts on DLF’s board by knowledgeable people who turned me on to players or factors I was previously unaware of. For that reason I’m grateful for the community. But ultimately the majority on this board can often be wrong, and that’s okay as long as I don’t expect popular opinion to be equivalent to objective truth. We can almost certainly do better to not suppress minority opinions to allow for more productive discussions, but it will always require a certain amount of self confidence to stand in opposition to the majority as criticism is a natural and warranted response to dissent.

Sorry that post was too long, but I took a while to write it so I’m posting anyway.
10 Team Half PPR Scoring: 1QB 2RB 2WR 1TE 1Flex DST K
QB: Mahomes, Super Cam, Jones
RB: Cook, Fournette, Gurley, Henderson, Lindsay, Moss, Gaskin, M. Davis, J. Williams, Booker
WR: Julio, A.J. Brown, K. Allen, Cooks, TY, Perriman
TE: Kelce, Cook, Gronk
Taxi: Jalen Hurts

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby JJRules » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:06 am

This is a great post, and is something I've struggled with here at times.

My biggest weakness is overvaluing my players during trade negotiations, so I mostly just come here for sanity checks to make sure I'm not getting in my own way. I've learned whose takes and advice lean more towards logic than emotion, and give extra weight to their input.
10-team non-PPR, Superflex, 16-man rosters, pseudo-dynasty
Keep any number of players (0-16), lose same number of draft picks
2010, 2015 champ, 2013 runner-up

QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, SF, FLEX, D/ST

QB: Watson, Murray, Stafford
RB: Cook, Kamara, Robinson, Dobbins, Akers, Moss
WR: Adams, AJB, McLaurin, Higgins
TE: Hockenson, Goedert
D/ST: MIA

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Re: Domino Effect

Postby Pac_Eddy » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:43 am

JJRules wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:06 am
My biggest weakness is overvaluing my players during trade negotiations, so I mostly just come here for sanity checks to make sure I'm not getting in my own way.
I think this is everyone. There's a reason you acquired the players you did, but yeah, it's good to know what your own biases are.
Not all that counts can be counted. Not all that can be counted counts.


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