Brandon Aiyuk: on the move...?

[Space Cowboy]

I knew he'd be silky smooth and explosive but I didn't think he was the type to take games over.

[jenkins.math]

I love what he is doing with the opportunity and I'm very impressed. However I struggle to project his numbers for next season because I don't know what he will get in terms of volume with Kittle back.

I do think he is passing Deebo on the depth chart. Deebo just cannot stay healthy and its been that way for him since college.

We’re pretty bad at projecting offenses far out, yet alone dividing individual target share for specific players.

1. The team clearly felt they needed an outside WR given that they not only spend a 1st on him but traded up to do so
2. He actually compliments Deebo and Kittle pretty well as they all work in different areas of the field
3. With Kittle and Deebo coming back the offense gets better, benefitting Aiyuk
4. He’s not only putting up insane production but he looks fantastic while doing it - this is not the case of someone just producing on volume

People are overthinking this.

Aiyuk with and without Kittle: 5.6 targets/gm vs 10 targets/gm
Aiyuk with and without Deebo: 6 targets/gm vs 9.2 targets/gm (I'm counting the last game as no Deebo because he got hurt in the opening possession).
With all 3 playing together: 5.25 targets/gm

These numbers absolutely matter when it comes to projecting his fantasy output next season. I agree that they all do different things and make the SF offense much better when they are all out there. Making the NFL offense better doesn't always equal better fantasy output for certain individuals.

Just to be clear here, I like the player a lot and think he has looked great. When you look at the actual numbers there is no way you can say that having all 3 of them back equals a better fantasy output for Aiyuk. He is seeing elite volume right now.

[hoos89]

What even is the sample size on these numbers? Also his higher target games are generally all of his most recent games, so there's a lot of conflating factors here given that he's a rookie.

[Chwf3rd]

I love what he is doing with the opportunity and I'm very impressed. However I struggle to project his numbers for next season because I don't know what he will get in terms of volume with Kittle back.

I do think he is passing Deebo on the depth chart. Deebo just cannot stay healthy and its been that way for him since college.

We’re pretty bad at projecting offenses far out, yet alone dividing individual target share for specific players.

1. The team clearly felt they needed an outside WR given that they not only spend a 1st on him but traded up to do so
2. He actually compliments Deebo and Kittle pretty well as they all work in different areas of the field
3. With Kittle and Deebo coming back the offense gets better, benefitting Aiyuk
4. He’s not only putting up insane production but he looks fantastic while doing it - this is not the case of someone just producing on volume

People are overthinking this.

Aiyuk with and without Kittle: 5.6 targets/gm vs 10 targets/gm
Aiyuk with and without Deebo: 6 targets/gm vs 9.2 targets/gm (I'm counting the last game as no Deebo because he got hurt in the opening possession).
With all 3 playing together: 5.25 targets/gm

These numbers absolutely matter when it comes to projecting his fantasy output next season. I agree that they all do different things and make the SF offense much better when they are all out there. Making the NFL offense better doesn't always equal better fantasy output for certain individuals.

Just to be clear here, I like the player a lot and think he has looked great. When you look at the actual numbers there is no way you can say that having all 3 of them back equals a better fantasy output for Aiyuk. He is seeing elite volume right now.

We're looking at incredibly small sample sizes at the beginning of Aiyuk's NFL career. Of course there's some worry about decreasing target share once Kittle and Deebo return but think you're assigning too much weight to 5 games at the beginning of Aiyuk's career.

In 2 of those 5 games with Kittle, Aiyuk went: (1) 7 targets, 6/115 and (2) 10 targets, 8/91/1.

In the middle of Aiyuk's recent strong run he played an entire game with Deebo and was used as the main outside option.

Agree that there are question marks -- just as there are with every other rookie WR besides maybe Jefferson -- it's just strange that the target questions are leading the discussion with Aiyuk. Seems like a lot of people didn't like him coming out and the absences of Kittle and Deebo give an easy way to dismiss him.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This is like people saying to fade AJB because he only got 80 something targets last season.

[jenkins.math]

We're looking at incredibly small sample sizes at the beginning of Aiyuk's NFL career. Of course there's some worry about decreasing target share once Kittle and Deebo return but think you're assigning too much weight to 5 games at the beginning of Aiyuk's career.

In 2 of those 5 games with Kittle, Aiyuk went: (1) 7 targets, 6/115 and (2) 10 targets, 8/91/1.

In the middle of Aiyuk's recent strong run he played an entire game with Deebo and was used as the main outside option.

Agree that there are question marks -- just as there are with every other rookie WR besides maybe Jefferson -- it's just strange that the target questions are leading the discussion with Aiyuk. Seems like a lot of people didn't like him coming out and the absences of Kittle and Deebo give an easy way to dismiss him.

And I think you are pretty much ignoring it and giving it zero weight. If he is a 10 target a game player then you're talking a top 5 WR. A 6 target per game guy and he is in the large clump of WRs that could land anywhere from WR12-WR30. Still a nice asset to own, but you're talking a huge value jump if he maintains this recent amount of targets.

I'll readily admit it's a small sample size either way but that is all we have to go on right now. The problem with him is what do his owners value him at? I doubt you can pay the WR12-30 price for him and I need more information before I even think about discussing top 5WR value.

It's no knock on the player at all. You can count me as a guy who wasn't in love with him but is a believer now. However it is absolutely impossible for me to ignore the wide range of outcomes for him. If I owned him and someone thought this latest run was the new norm for him, and wanted to pay that, I would sell in a heartbeat. In terms or targets I think he has the most variance of any of the rookie WRs this year.

[Chwf3rd]

We're looking at incredibly small sample sizes at the beginning of Aiyuk's NFL career. Of course there's some worry about decreasing target share once Kittle and Deebo return but think you're assigning too much weight to 5 games at the beginning of Aiyuk's career.

In 2 of those 5 games with Kittle, Aiyuk went: (1) 7 targets, 6/115 and (2) 10 targets, 8/91/1.

In the middle of Aiyuk's recent strong run he played an entire game with Deebo and was used as the main outside option.

Agree that there are question marks -- just as there are with every other rookie WR besides maybe Jefferson -- it's just strange that the target questions are leading the discussion with Aiyuk. Seems like a lot of people didn't like him coming out and the absences of Kittle and Deebo give an easy way to dismiss him.

And I think you are pretty much ignoring it and giving it zero weight. If he is a 10 target a game player then you're talking a top 5 WR. A 6 target per game guy and he is in the large clump of WRs that could land anywhere from WR12-WR30. Still a nice asset to own, but you're talking a huge value jump if he maintains this recent amount of targets.

I'll readily admit it's a small sample size either way but that is all we have to go on right now. The problem with him is what do his owners value him at? I doubt you can pay the WR12-30 price for him and I need more information before I even think about discussing top 5WR value.

It's no knock on the player at all. You can count me as a guy who wasn't in love with him but is a believer now. However it is absolutely impossible for me to ignore the wide range of outcomes for him. If I owned him and someone thought this latest run was the new norm for him, and wanted to pay that, I would sell in a heartbeat. In terms or targets I think he has the most variance of any of the rookie WRs this year.

How am I giving it "zero weight?" Nobody is ranking him as a top 5 WR overall.

The issue is trying to project (1) overall offensive production and (2) individual target share within the offense for future years. Incredibly difficult to do.

The better process in my opinion is focusing on broader indicators that we know to generally be true -- draft capital, current production, and simply watching them play.

[jenkins.math]

How am I giving it "zero weight?" Nobody is ranking him as a top 5 WR overall.

The issue is trying to project (1) overall offensive production and (2) individual target share within the offense for future years. Incredibly difficult to do.

The better process in my opinion is focusing on broader indicators that we know to generally be true -- draft capital, current production, and simply watching them play.

I feel like you answered your own question. Situation isn't even in your top 3, and his current production of late may/may not be a product of injuries to those around him.

You're also moving the goalposts here on the individual target share discussion. We are talking about how his target share has been affected with/without Kittle and Deebo this season and how you project that going into next season. Not talking about years down the line. But with most being past the trade deadline, buying and selling players is much more about next year at this stage. You have to do some projecting.

[Servo]

No question that Aiyuk's profile scared a ton of people, myself included at the time.

But sitting in the mid-late 2nd, I saw no issue taking a guy that dominated at JUCO, dominated his 1 true year as a WR1 at ASU and was a special teams ace. Guy just has that knack of making it happen when the ball is in his hands.

Now we've also come to see he's a damn good route runner.

[hoos89]

This year's 2nd round was a gold mine in both my leagues. Aiyuk, Higgins, Gibson, Shenault, Mims, Shenault, Claypool, Burrow and Tua were all players who were generally going around the 2nd (plus I think Pittman fell to the 2nd in a lot of leagues). Obviously some of those have hit harder than others so far, but they're all at least showing promise and all are great value for 2nd rounders. That's just such an absurd hit rate for a 2nd round. I ended up with 4 total 2nd in 2 leagues (got Aiyuk, Claypool, Higgins, Tua) and my only regret is that I didn't have more.

[cantguardjake]

No question that Aiyuk's profile scared a ton of people, myself included at the time.

But sitting in the mid-late 2nd, I saw no issue taking a guy that dominated at JUCO, dominated his 1 true year as a WR1 at ASU and was a special teams ace. Guy just has that knack of making it happen when the ball is in his hands.

Now we've also come to see he's a damn good route runner.

He was a good route runner in college, or at least clearly had potential to be (but Ruggs was the route runnng savant lol).

Anyone that still isn’t sold on Aiyuk just didn’t rate him in college at this stage and won’t concede.

[OhCruelestRanter]

No question that Aiyuk's profile scared a ton of people, myself included at the time.

But sitting in the mid-late 2nd, I saw no issue taking a guy that dominated at JUCO, dominated his 1 true year as a WR1 at ASU and was a special teams ace. Guy just has that knack of making it happen when the ball is in his hands.

Now we've also come to see he's a damn good route runner.

He was a good route runner in college, or at least clearly had potential to be (but Ruggs was the route runnng savant lol).

Anyone that still isn’t sold on Aiyuk just didn’t rate him in college at this stage and won’t concede.

What do you mean “didn’t rate him”? Sorry if you’re not a native English speaker, I don’t mean to offend, I’ve just seen you use that phrasing a few times and I’m not sure what you mean. Do you mean didn’t rate him highly?

[cantguardjake]

No question that Aiyuk's profile scared a ton of people, myself included at the time.

But sitting in the mid-late 2nd, I saw no issue taking a guy that dominated at JUCO, dominated his 1 true year as a WR1 at ASU and was a special teams ace. Guy just has that knack of making it happen when the ball is in his hands.

Now we've also come to see he's a damn good route runner.

He was a good route runner in college, or at least clearly had potential to be (but Ruggs was the route runnng savant lol).

Anyone that still isn’t sold on Aiyuk just didn’t rate him in college at this stage and won’t concede.

What do you mean “didn’t rate him”? Sorry if you’re not a native English speaker, I don’t mean to offend, I’ve just seen you use that phrasing a few times and I’m not sure what you mean. Do you mean didn’t rate him highly?

No offense taken, I am a native English speaker

Yes it means “didn’t rate him highly”, why use 4 words when 3 will do

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I remember getting crushed for saying I didn't think breakout age was as important as others were saying. I didn't disagree that overall a lower breakout age was more ideal, but when zooming in at a micro level to an individual player, I find that breakout age is not really the thing that makes or breaks a player. If a player fails, they typically had other things wrong with their profile than just breakout age.

[Jigga94]

He was a good route runner in college, or at least clearly had potential to be (but Ruggs was the route runnng savant lol).

Anyone that still isn’t sold on Aiyuk just didn’t rate him in college at this stage and won’t concede.

What do you mean “didn’t rate him”? Sorry if you’re not a native English speaker, I don’t mean to offend, I’ve just seen you use that phrasing a few times and I’m not sure what you mean. Do you mean didn’t rate him highly?

No offense taken, I am a native English speaker

Yes it means “didn’t rate him highly”, why use 4 words when 3 will do

Why waste time say lot word when few word do trick