2-4 is better than 3-3

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
User avatar
dlf_mikeh
Administrator
Posts: 5647
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:50 am

If you're 2-4 and you haven't been trading this past week, you're probably doing it wrong. Mind you, I don't know your league settings, roster, or standings at all, but I'm still willing to plunk down some of these $20 bills to bet that you're making a mistake by not trading.

A 2-4 team is 2 games below 0.500. A 500-team usually does not make the playoffs, which means you'll need to win more games than you think in order to get to the promised land. 7-6 has a chance, but that means your team would need to go 5-2 the rest of the way. And keep in mind that's only for A CHANCE at the playoffs. 7-6 teams are sometimes left out in the cold, and the only thing you'll have to show for it is a mid-round draft pick, assuming you didn't trade it away chasing the playoffs...

If you're 2-4, you've probably been fielding a less-than-average roster. If that's the case, you're probably not going to win 5 or 6 of your next 7 games. And if that's true, then why aren't you doing your best to trade away assets in preparation for 2021? NOW IS THE TIME TO DO THAT! There are teams out there who are 4-2 or 5-1 and are looking to gear up to make a run. They are in the market for YOUR players. If you haven't been selling, maybe float some offers around right now before it's too late. The worst thing you could have happen as an owner of a 2-4 team is WINNING at this point.

The value for your guys is at its peak since there are a plethora of teams looking for depth. One such team is the dreaded 3-3 team. This is the record I don't want in any league. 2-4 means I can start selling, 4-2 means I can start buying, 3-3 is... neither? Both? I have to check my schedule, check my opponents rosters, check my bye week players, etc. What if I sell too early? What if I don't buy a player that I needed? What if I buy a player and it doesn't pan out?

No, 3-3 is a disaster.

If you lose, you're 3-4 and now what? You still feel like you have a shot so you might give it one more week. What if you win? Now you're 4-4. Still not great, still not bad, and the value of your older players has declined because the market has shrunk. The best teams are now 7-1 or 6-2. You're not feeling too great about winning it all, you lost value on older vets, and you're headed towards that dreaded in-between region of "too good to get a top draft pick" and "too bad to make the playoffs".

I know most people's objectives is to make the playoffs. My objective is to avoid 3-3 every season. I wanna either be above it or below it as far as possible. In one league right now I'm 0-6. In all the rest I'm 4-2 or better. Perfect! This is what I want every year.

If you're 2-4, you know where you stand. Today is Sunday morning, time to rise and sell, most likely, if you haven't already.
If you're 3-3, do your research now and take a stand. Either sell it all or go for it. Do it now before it's too late!

Lastly, I briefly covered it in my second sentence above but it's worth expanding: It's possible that your 2-4 team is leading in points scored. It's also probable that the teams left to play are sub 0.500. Maybe your roster is returning from injury. There are a host or variables I didn't mention, so you need to consider those aspects as part of your 2-4 team. If this is the case, it might be in your best interest to continue fighting.
Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

failblazer
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1751
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2013 3:19 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby failblazer » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:08 am

Very good post. I see so many teams in my leagues, year after year, that float in that middle tier and always draft in the 1.06-1.09 range (16 team) and never have a chance at a consensus stud in the draft because they aren't self-aware about just how good or bad their team is. Obviously, the hardest team to evaluate objectively is your own but being able to accurately access just how good you are and where you fit in the pecking order of your league stops you from making a panic trade to try and push you from .500 towards a playoff birth.
16 Team PPR (9th Year Dynasty - 1 Time Champion)
C. Wentz, D. Jones
C. McCaffrey, D. Henry, J. Robinson, A. Peterson, T. CohenIR
D. Hopkins, A. Cooper, C. Kupp, C. Ridley, R. Woods, D. Johnson, A. Brown (TB), D. Mims, C. SuttonIR
D. Waller, M. Gesicki, D. Njoku, C. Kmet

C. Young, R. Okwara, S. HubbardIR
D. Leonard, F. Oluokun, D. Greenlaw, M. Kiser, B. Okereke, C. MoselyOPT, N. GerryIR
J. Simmons, J. Jones(JAX)

16 Team PPR (8th Year Dynasty - Reigning 3 Time Champion)
T. Brady, R. Fitzpatrick, J. Luton
C. MacCaffrey, E. Elliott, D. Henry
D. Hopkins, D. Adams, C. Kupp, M. Jones, A. Brown (TB), M. Valdes-Scantling, A. Isabella, N. Harry, J. Ross, J. GordonSUS
T. Burton, R. Dwelley, J. Sternberger, O. HowardIR, Z. ErtzIR

D. Lawrence, J. Simmons, K. Chiasson, A. Epenesa, J. CaseyIR
R. Smith, Z. Cunningham, B. Okereke, T. Adams, M. Kiser, T. Edwards, L.Wilson, C. MoselyOPT
J. Johnson, J. Simmons, J. Okudah, B. McDougaldIR

Bronco Billy
Starter
Starter
Posts: 501
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:12 am

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:19 am

It’s my impression that this is not a good season to jump to any conclusions about one’s team. This could be one of the most outlying seasons in league history.

That does make it a ripe season to take advantage of panicking owners though. I’ve seen a few of those kinds of trades already.

Pullo Vision
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4772
Joined: Sat May 28, 2011 11:53 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:02 am

Bronco Billy wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:19 am
It’s my impression that this is not a good season to jump to any conclusions about one’s team. This could be one of the most outlying seasons in league history.

That does make it a ripe season to take advantage of panicking owners though. I’ve seen a few of those kinds of trades already.
Can you give examples?
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1 Q, 1R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 R/T, 1 Def

Bronco Billy
Starter
Starter
Posts: 501
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:12 am

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:57 am

Pullo Vision wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:02 am
Bronco Billy wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:19 am
It’s my impression that this is not a good season to jump to any conclusions about one’s team. This could be one of the most outlying seasons in league history.

That does make it a ripe season to take advantage of panicking owners though. I’ve seen a few of those kinds of trades already.
Can you give examples?
Here’s 2. Seems to me that neither team giving up the premium piece is getting near enough compensation.


Team A gave up

Jones, Zay LVR WR;
McKenzie, Isaiah BUF WR;
Year 2021 Round 2 Draft Pick from Team B (likely bottom 4)
Year 2021 Round 3 Draft Pick from Team B

Team B gave up

Woods, Robert LAR WR

**********************

Team C gave up

Davis, Gabriel BUF WR;
Year 2021 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team E (likely top 5)
Year 2021 Round 4 Draft Pick from Team C

Team D gave up

Adams, Davante GBP WR;
Year 2021 Round 6 Draft Pick from Team D

abloom
Legend
Legend
Posts: 5389
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:33 am

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby abloom » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:22 am

While I agree with the generalized comment that 2-4 and 3-3 teams should be honest with themselves the best way to be honest with yourself is to also include your total points and/or all play record

If you are 2-4 but a top 3 scorer in the league with some bad losses, you are likely in a better position than a 4-2 team that is a bottom 4 scorer. Sometimes it's just a bad matchup. Is it still more difficult to make the playoffs as a 2-4 team? Sure, but you have a more reasonable shot than a 2-4 team that doesn't have a top league score.
Dynasty Team #1: 6-5 (7th place)
2019 2nd Place
12 team, 1 ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,2F,1D,1K

Q: Wentz,Tannehill, Bridgewater
R: CMC,Taylor,Robinson,Fournette,Peterson
W: Evans,Edelman,Cobb,Davis,Mooney,Lazard(IR),Cole
T: Goedert(IR),Henry,Bryant,Dissly
D: NE,BAL
K: Bullock

2021 Picks: 1,2,4,5,6,7
---
Dynasty Team #2: 11-0 (1st place-Clinched 1st round bye)
2019 3rd place
12 team, 1ppr (1.5 te), 1Q,2R,2W,1T,1SF,1F,1D,1K

Q: Wilson, Murray, Cousins, Trubisky
R: Cook, Dobbins, Swift, Monty, Michel(IR), Mattison
W: Nuk, Godwin, Metcalf, K Allen, Edwards, AB, Sutton(IR)
T: Kelce, Everett
K: Tucker
D: PIT

2021 picks: 1,1,4,4,5,6,7
---
DLF advice forum league: 2-9 (12th place)
14 team, SF, 1PPR (2PPR for TE), 1Q,2R,3W,1T,1SF,2F

Q: Mahomes ,Tua, Mullens, Love, Flacco, Hoyer, Rypien, Bethard
R: Michel, Moss, Hyde, Bernard, Richard, Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, C Thompson
W: Juju, Cooper, Allen, Sanders, D Moore
T: Schultz, Doyle, Asiasi, Thomas

2021 Picks: 1,1,1,2,3,4,4,4

Bronco Billy
Starter
Starter
Posts: 501
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:12 am

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby Bronco Billy » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:38 am

abloom wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:22 am
While I agree with the generalized comment that 2-4 and 3-3 teams should be honest with themselves the best way to be honest with yourself is to also include your total points and/or all play record

If you are 2-4 but a top 3 scorer in the league with some bad losses, you are likely in a better position than a 4-2 team that is a bottom 4 scorer. Sometimes it's just a bad matchup. Is it still more difficult to make the playoffs as a 2-4 team? Sure, but you have a more reasonable shot than a 2-4 team that doesn't have a top league score.
Now this seems more in line to me. I had a top 3 scoring team that finished 2 games below .500 because I always seemed to catch each week’s top scorer. I didn’t do much but peripheral tweaking and won the league the next year. On the other hand I’ve also had a team that had the best regular season record but was middle of the pack in scoring. Lost in the semifinal round and made some significant offseason moves to change its makeup entirely.

If I’ve got a team that isn’t within 10-12% of the league scoring leader and I don’t have some injured FF position level 2 or better talent, I’m making serious moves in looking to shore up my weak spots for next season. Record doesn’t figure much into my evaluation.

User avatar
killer_of_giants
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1457
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:20 am

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby killer_of_giants » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:55 am

dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:50 am
Mind you, I don't know your league settings, roster, or standings at all
this, in a nutshell!

CGW
All Pro
All Pro
Posts: 1877
Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:31 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby CGW » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:22 am

Most of my leagues are points possible draft order, so if you wait until week 7 you are probably too late to the party to bother.
12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Cousins, Darnold, Trubisky, Flacco, Walker
RB | CEH, Taylor, Gaskin, Singletary, Wilkins, Ahmed
WR | Adams, Evans, Golladay, Cooper, D. Johnson, Miller, G. Davis, Mooney, Pascal
TE | Andrews, Alie-Cox, Rodgers

10 Team | SF | PPR
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, SF

QB | Murray, Minshew, Tagovailoa
RB | Montgomery, Singletary, Murray, R. Jones, Dobbins, Swift, Vaughn
WR | Godwin, AJ Brown, Lamb, M. Brown, D. Johnson, Slayton, Aiyuk, Reynolds, Fulgham, Peoples-Jones, Mooney
TE | Andrews, Henry, Herndon, Sample

12 Team | SF | PPR | 6pt pass TD
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL, SF

QB | Watson, Wilson, Darnold, Trubisky, Fromme, Smith, Flacco
RB | Guice, Hines, Penny, Henderson, Wilkins
WR | Evans, Golladay, Ridley, Kupp, D. Johnson, Pittman, Fulgham, Mooney, Ward, T. Smith, Zaccheus
TE | Ertz, Herndon, Sternberger, L. Thomas

User avatar
Orenthal Shames
Hall of Fame
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4581
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby Orenthal Shames » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:43 am

One of the best skills to have in dynasty is being able to properly self assess your team.

I've seen mediocre teams bankrupt their future trying to go all-in after a favorable set of circumstances positioned them as potential playoff teams. They all had no realistic shot, get bounced first round and spend years digging themselves out of that hole.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19 Champion

QB: Tannehill, Brees
RB: Kamara, CMC, Sanders, Davis, Murray, Scott
WR: Julio, Hill, KA, Hamler
TE: Kelce, Kittle

honcho55
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1137
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 6:45 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby honcho55 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:46 am

Agree with OP in general, but most of the counter arguments are valid also.

Ex: my sig team is 2-4. I don’t really have old vets to sell, other than maybe Kelce. I’m top 3-4 in scoring. Gonna hang on and try to compete still.

And I’ve got the opposite problem too. I’m playing for next year in two leagues, One is 2-4 but there’s 5 teams at or worse than 2-4. Other is 3-3. Problem with the latter is, I can’t do much else to lower wins, I’m already rocking the worst RB crew I’ve ever ran in fantasy: Lynn Bowden, Nyheim Hines, Bryce Love. Rest of my team is very young and doesn’t merit selling really.

I think the overall message behind the Op here is, now is a pretty big spot to evaluate what your team is this year, within your league makeup/settings/etc.
my main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
14 team
start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT. *adding SF 2021

QB: Wilson, Watson, Herbert
RB: S Barkley, J Taylor, JK Dobbins, T Coleman, G Bernard, R Anderson
WR: J Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, A Cooper, C Kirk, A Miller, K Coutee, S Sims
TE. T Kelce, I Thomas, M Gesicki, W Dissly

Futures
2021: 1, 2, 2
2022: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3
2023: 1, 1, 3, 4, 5

User avatar
dlf_mikeh
Administrator
Posts: 5647
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:48 am

To everyone here pointing out that there are other variables at play, I agree. I gave a vague reference to that in my second sentence.

It's possible that your 2-4 team is leading in points scored. It's also probable that the teams left to play are sub 0.500. Maybe your roster is returning from injury. There are a host or variables I didn't mention, so you need to consider those aspects as part of your 2-4 team. If this is the case, it might be in your best interest to continue fighting.

However, the vast majority of 2-4 teams will NOT be in good shape. I've seen quite a few 2-4 teams in bad shape with guys like Emmanuel Sanders, Tom Brady, David Johnson, etc. Sell those guys now. Rebuild.
Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

jman3134
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1164
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:34 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby jman3134 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:41 am

Humbly disagree. My team is 2-4 coming off a 0.7 pt loss in the worst week in 3 years. Every game has been 145 pts or higher. And injuries have decimated the roster otherwise. Also, I played every top team in the first 6 games. 2 wins were against playoff level teams. I'll hold and brace for the playoffs unless my entire running back core goes out.
12 team, 35 man rosters, 1/2 PPR, 10 round rookie/FA draft
Qb: Baker Mayfield, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford
Rb: Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Matt Breida, Cam Akers, Chase Edmonds, David Johnson, D'onta Foreman
Wr: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Laviska Shenault, Julian Edelman, Diontae Johnson, John Brown, Keelan Cole, Darnell Mooney, Jalen Guyton, Travis Fulgham, Jakobi Meyers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James, Cam Sims, Dezmon Patmon
Te: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Dan Arnold, Donald Parham
K: Jason Sanders
D: Baltimore Ravens
2021 picks:

User avatar
dlf_mikeh
Administrator
Posts: 5647
Joined: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:57 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby dlf_mikeh » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:59 am

jman3134 wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:41 am
Humbly disagree. My team is 2-4 coming off a 0.7 pt loss in the worst week in 3 years. Every game has been 145 pts or higher. And injuries have decimated the roster otherwise. Also, I played every top team in the first 6 games. 2 wins were against playoff level teams. I'll hold and brace for the playoffs unless my entire running back core goes out.
dlf_mikeh wrote:
Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:48 am
It's possible that your 2-4 team is leading in points scored. It's also probable that the teams left to play are sub 0.500. Maybe your roster is returning from injury. There are a host or variables I didn't mention, so you need to consider those aspects as part of your 2-4 team. If this is the case, it might be in your best interest to continue fighting.
Tons of variables out there. We don't disagree.
Make Your Own Customizable Draft Pick Value Chart Here
"This is awesome" --- dlf_jaronf
"I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them." --- dlf_jules
"Whatever rookie draft pick chart you're using isn't as good as this one from MEuRaH" --- dlf_jules
"Excellent work on this!" --- dlf_zachb

Online
User avatar
Vcize
Ring of Fame
Ring of Fame
Posts: 3418
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 4:30 pm

Re: 2-4 is better than 3-3

Postby Vcize » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:09 am

Interesting perspective thanks for sharing. Wish I'd seen this earlier in the league so I'd been more inclined to move some pieces on my lone 2-4 team.
12 Team FFPC TE Premium
QB: Brady, Burrow
RB: Barkley, Mixon, A Jones, Hunt, Coleman, Ballage
WR: Hopkins, Hill, Lockett, J Jefferson, Fulgham, Preston
TE: Goedert


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ice, nathanq42, TB3falcons, Vcize and 6 guests

DLF 2020 Cyber Week Sale